Using the spectral scaling exponent for validation of quantitative precipitation forecasts

This study evaluates the spectral scaling of a heavy rainfall event and assesses the performance of the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) model in terms of the multiscale variability of rainfall in the temporal spectral domain. The event occurred over southern Malay Peninsula on 18 December 2006 and was simulated at high resolutions. 10, 5 and 1?min aggregate rainfall data from rain gauge stations in Singapore and simulated rainfall sampled at different evaluation points on 0.9, 0.3 and 0.1?km grids were utilized. The simulated and observed rain rates were compared via Fourier and wavelet analyses. A scaling regime was noted in the observed rainfall spectra in the timescales between 60?min and 2?min. The scaling exponent obtained from the observed spectra has a value of about 2, which may be indicative of the physics of turbulence and raindrop coalescence and might suggest the predominance of a characteristic raindrop size. At 0.9?km resolution, the model rainfall spectra showed similar scaling to the observed down to about 10?min, below which a fall-off in variance was noted as compared to observations. Higher spatial resolution of up to 0.1?km was crucial to improve the ability of the model to resolve the shorter timescale variability. We suggest that the evaluation of dynamical models in the spectral domain is a crucial step in the validation of quantitative precipitation forecasts and assessing the minimal grid resolution necessary to capture rainfall variability for certain short timescales may be important for hydrological predictions.     

Geochemical and hydrologic controls on the mobilization of arsenic derived from herbicide application

The fate and transport of As was examined at an industrial site where soil- and groundwater contamination are derived from the application of As₂O₃ as a herbicide. Application of arsenical herbicides was discontinued in the 1970s and soils in the source area were partially excavated in 2003. Arsenic contamination (up to 280 mg/kg) remains in the source area soils and a plume of As-contaminated groundwater persists in the surficial aquifer downgradient of the source area with maximum observed As concentrations of 1200 μg/L near the source area. The spatial extent of As contamination as defined by the 10 μg/L contour appears to have remained relatively stable over the period 1996–2006; the boundary of the 1000 μg/L contour has retreated over the same time period indicating a decrease in total As mass in the surficial groundwater.In column experiments conducted with source area soil, the As concentrations in the column effluent were comparable to those observed in groundwater near the source area. A substantial fraction of the As could be leached from the source area soil with ammonium sulfate and ammonium phosphate. Exhaustive extraction with background groundwater removed most of the total As. These results indicate that As in the source area soils is geochemically labile. Source area soils are low in extractable Fe, Mn and Al, and characterization by X-ray absorption spectroscopy and electron microscopy indicated that As is present primarily as arsenate sorbed to (alumino)silicate minerals. Batch sorption experiments showed much less sorption on surficial aquifer sediments than on sediments from the Jackson Bluff Formation (JBF), a presumed confining layer. This limited capacity of the surficial aquifer sediments for As sorption is consistent with the similar As contents observed for these sediments within and upgradient of the As plume. The apparent stability of the As plume cannot be explained by sequestration of As within the surficial aquifer. Sorption to JBF sediments may contribute to As sequestration, but As enrichment in JBF sediments within the plume (i.e., as compared with JBF sediments upgradient) was not observed. These results indicate that neither the persistence of As in the source area soils or the apparent stability of the plume of As-contaminated groundwater at this site can be explained by geochemical controls on As mobility. The absence of demonstrable geochemical bases for such observations suggests that possible hydrologic controls should be further investigated at this site.     

Women Agricultural Landowners—Past Time to Put Them “On the Radar”

While women own 25% of the acres rented out for farming, little has been done in terms of federal policy that focuses on these women. In this policy analysis, we detail how (1) lack of data on these women landowners and (2) the invisibility of these women to federal natural resource and agricultural agency staff contribute to women nonoperating landowners (WNOLs) not being on the federal policy radar. We discuss how the persistence of these factors continues to marginalize WNOLs in federal agricultural policy, despite the mandate of U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) agencies to be serving underserved populations such as WNOLs. Our study findings clearly illustrate a critical point: federal agricultural/conservation agencies are not fulfilling their mandate to reach WNOLs. Using data from USDA Production Regions in the United States, we detail how WNOLs are marginalized and provide specific policy recommendations to allow for intentional inclusion of these women.     

A spatio-temporal model of housing prices based on individual sales transactions over time

A spatio-temporal model of housing price trends is developed that focuses on individual housing sales over time. The model allows for both the spatio-temporal lag effects of previous sales in the vicinity of each housing sale, and for general autocorrelation effects over time. A key feature of this model is the recognition of the unequal spacing between individual housing sales over time. Hence the residuals are modeled as a first-order autoregressive process with unequally spaced events. The maximum-likelihood estimation of this model is developed in detail, and tested in terms of simulations based on selected data. In addition, the model is applied to a small data set in the Philadelphia area.     

Decoupling of nutrient and grazer impacts on a benthic estuarine diatom assemblage

Strong interactions between top-down (consumptive) and bottom-up (resource supply) trophic factors occur in many aquatic communities, but these forces can act independently in some microphytobenthic communities. Within benthic estuarine diatom assemblages, the dynamics of these interactions and how they vary with abiotic environmental conditions are not well understood. We conducted a field experiment at two sites with varying habitat characteristics to investigate the interactive effects of grazers and nutrients on benthic estuarine diatoms. We crossed snail (Cerithidea californica) and nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) addition treatments in enclosures on a restored tidal sandflat and a reference tidal mudflat in Mugu Lagoon, southern California. We repeated the study in summer 2000 and spring 2001 to assess temporal variation in the interactions. Snails caused a large decrease in diatom relative abundance and biomass (estimated as surface area); nutrients increased diatom abundance but did not alter diatom biomass. Snails and nutrients both reduced average diatom length, although the nutrient effect was weaker and temporally variable, occurring in the reference mudflat in the spring. There were few interactions between snail and nutrient addition treatments, suggesting that links between top-down and bottom-up forces on the diatom community were weak. There were no consistent differences in diatom assemblage characteristics between the two study sites, despite marked differences in sediment grain size and other abiotic characteristics between the sites. The strong diatom response to herbivores and weaker responses to enrichment differed from the previous studies where cyanobacteria increased in response to nutrient enrichment, further dissolving the “black box” perception of microphytobenthic communities.     

The impact of poverty on fertility in Peninsular Malaysia: A cohort analysis

The New Economic Policy (NEP) formulated in 1970 in Peninsular Malaysia had a two-fold aim of reducing poverty and redressing ethnic inequalities in wealth. The spatial bias of development on the west coast where the Chinese concentrate in the urban centres was also addressed. Population planning worked in tandem with NEP to reduce Malay to non-Malay differences in fertility. 1980 census data was evaluated to assess the impact of NEP on fertility transition in the country. Socioeconomic data for specific cohorts (15–24; 25–34 and 35–49) were collected and factor analysed to examine poverty conditions. The study found poverty to be differentiated by ethnicity. Malay poverty is high in both absolute (e.g. employment rate and education) and relative terms (as compared to the Chinese). The Chinese dimension is the exact opposite. Unfortunately, regional polarisation of wealth remains unchanged, even a decade after NEP. Poverty was regressed against cohort fertility and found to increase with it, especially for the older cohorts. Although NEP reduced fertility among the youngest cohort, its impact was not exceptionally large. The NEP is currently up for review. The apparent failure of the policy to achieve income equity and fertility transition must therefore be taken seriously.     

Does use of tropical beaches by tourists and island residents result in damage to fringing coral reefs? A case study in Moorea French Polynesia

Although coral reefs worldwide are subject to increasing global threats, humans also impact coral reefs directly through localized activities such as snorkeling, kayaking and fishing. We investigated five sites on the northern shore of Moorea, French Polynesia, and quantified the number of visitors on the beach and in shallow water. In field surveys, we measured total coral cover and colony sizes of two common genera, Porites and Acropora, a massive and branching morphology, respectively. One site, which hosted over an order of magnitude more people than the other four, had significantly less total coral cover and supported very little branching Acropora. In addition, size frequency distributions of both the branching and massive genera were skewed toward smaller colony sizes at the high use site. Our results demonstrated that the use of tropical beaches may result in less coral cover, with branching colonies rare and small.     

Growth and production of the mummichog (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Fundulus heteroclitus</Emphasis>) in a restored salt marsh

The mummichog,Fundulus heteroclitus, is one of the most important macrofaunal components of salt marsh surfaces and an important link to subtidal areas of the adjacent estuary along the east coast of the U.S. We estimated growth, population size, and production of the mummichog in a restored marsh in order to improve our understanding of the role of this resident fish and to evaluate the success of the restoration. The restored marsh, covering 234 ha, was a former salt hay farm located in the mesohaline portion of Delaware Bay that was restored to tidal influence in August 1996. We separated the mummichog population into two components based on life history stage and summer habitat use patterns. One component, consisting of adults and large young-of-the-year (YOY), exhibited tidal movements to and from the marsh surface and the subtidal creeks. These were examined with an intensive mark and recapture program using coded wire tags. Another component, consisting of small YOY, remained on the marsh surface throughout the tidal cycle. Throw traps were used to sample these small YOY. The mean annual population density of adults and large YOY for the entire marsh was approximately 1.2 fish m⁻² and mean monthly density peaked at 2.9 fish m⁻². The mean annual density of small YOY on the marsh surface was 15.1 fish m⁻² and mean monthly density peaked at 41.4 fish m⁻². Size and season influenced the growth rate of individual fish and instantaneous growth rates ranged from 0.03 to 2.26 mo⁻¹. Total annual mummichog production was estimated to be 8.37 g dw m⁻² yr⁻¹, with adults and large YOY contributing 28.4% (2.38 g dw m⁻² yr⁻¹) and small YOY on the marsh surface contributing 71.6% (5.99 g dw m⁻² yr⁻¹). The seasonal use and population densities were comparable to previous studies in natural marshes while growth and production of mummichog in this restored marsh appeared to be higher. Coupled with the results of other studies on the feeding, movement, and habitat use of this species in this restored marsh, the species has responded well to the restoration.