Vulnerability of water resources,vegetation productivity and soil erosion to climate change in Mediterranean watersheds

Climate change is expected to increase temperatures and lower rainfall in Mediterranean regions; however, there is a great degree of uncertainty as to the amount of change. This limits the prediction capacity of models to quantify impacts on water resources, vegetation productivity and erosion. This work circumvents this problem by analysing the sensitivity of these variables to varying degrees of temperature change (increased by up to 6·4 °C), rainfall (reduced by up to 40%) and atmospheric CO₂ concentrations (increased by up to 100%). The SWAT watershed model was applied to 18 large watersheds in two contrasting regions of Portugal, one humid and one semi‐arid; incremental changes to climate variables were simulated using a stochastic weather generator. The main results indicate that water runoff, particularly subsurface runoff, is highly sensitive to these climate change trends (down by 80%). The biomass growth of most species showed a declining trend (wheat down by 40%), due to the negative impacts of increasing temperatures, dampened by higher CO₂ concentrations. Mediterranean species, however, showed a positive response to milder degrees of climate change. Changes to erosion depended on the interactions between the decline in surface runoff (driving erosion rates downward) and biomass growth (driving erosion rates upward). For the milder rainfall changes, soil erosion showed a significant increasing trend in wheat fields (up to 150% in the humid watersheds), well above the recovery capacity of the soil. Overall, the results indicate a shift of the humid watersheds to acquire semi‐arid characteristics, such as more irregular river flows and increasingly marginal conditions for agricultural production. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Solar Magnetograms at 12 μm Using the Celeste Spectrograph

We present the first solar vector magnetogram constructed from measurements of infra-red Mg I 12.32-μm line spectra. Observations were made at the McMath-Pierce Telescope using the Celeste spectrometer/polarimeter. Zeeman-split Stokes line spectra were fitted with Seares profiles to obtain the magnetic field parameters. Maps of absolute field strength, line-of-sight angle, and azimuth are presented. Analysis shows that the variation in field strength within a spatial resolution element, 2 arcseconds, is greatest in the sunspot penumbra and that this is most likely caused by vertical field strength gradients, rather than horizontal image smearing. Widths of the Zeeman-split σ components, assuming a formation layer thickness of 200 km, indicate that vertical field strength gradients can be as large as 6.5 G/km in a penumbra.     

Diffuse Emission of Hydrogen from Poás Volcano,Costa Rica,America Central

We report the results of four soil H₂ surveys carried out in 2000–2003 at Poás volcano, Costa Rica, to investigate the soil H₂ distribution and evaluate the diffuse H₂ emission as a potential surveillance tool for Poás volcano. Soil gas H₂ contents showed a wide range of concentration from 0.2 to 7,059 ppmV during the four surveys. Maps of soil gas H₂ based on Sequential Gaussian Simulation showed low H₂ concentration values in the soil atmosphere (<0.7 ppmV) for most of the study area, whereas high soil gas H₂ values were observed inside the active crater of Poás. A significant increase in soil gas H₂ concentration was observed inside the active crater during 2001 and 2002 with respect to year 2000, followed by a decrease in 2003. The observed spatial and temporal variations of soil H₂ concentration have been well correlated with seismicity, microgravimetry and fumarolic chemistry changes which occurred during this study. These observations evidence changes in the shallow magmatic-hydrothermal system of Poás, and it might be related to a potential magmatic intrusion during the period 1998–2004. Therefore, monitoring diffuse H₂ emission of Poás has become an important geochemical tool for the monitoring of its volcanic activity.     

Anomalous Emissions of SO2 During the Recent Eruption of Santa Ana Volcano, El Salvador, Central America

Santa Ana volcano in western El Salvador, Central America, had a phreatic eruption at 8:05 am (local time) on October 1, 2005, 101 years after its last eruption. However, during the last one hundred years this volcano has presented periods of quiet degassing with fumarolic activity and an acidic lake within its crater. This paper presents results of frequent measurements of SO₂ degassing using the MiniDOAS (Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy) system and a comparison with the volcanic seismicity prior to the eruption, during, and after the eruption. Vehicle measurements of SO₂ flux were taken every hour during the first nine days of the eruption and daily after that. The period of time reported here is from August to December, 2005. Three periods of degassing are distinguished: pre-eruptive, eruptive, and post-eruptive periods. The intense activity at Santa Ana volcano started in July 2005. During the pre-eruptive period up to 4306 and 5154 ton/day of SO₂ flux were recorded on October 24 and September 9, 2005, respectively. These values were of the same order of magnitude as the recorded values just after the October 1^st eruption (2925 ton/day at 10:01 am). Hourly measurements of SO₂ flux taken during the first nine days after the main eruptive event indicate that explosions are preceded by an increase in SO₂ flux and that this parameter reaches a peak after the explosion took place. This behavior suggests that increasing accumulation of exsolved magmatic gases occurs within the magmatic chamber before the explosions, increasing the pressure until the point of explosion. A correlation between SO₂ fluxes and RSAM (Real Time Seismic Amplitude Measurements) is observed during the complete sampling period. Periodic fluctuations in the SO₂ and RSAM values during the entire study period are observed. One possible mechanism explaining these fluctuations it that convective circulation within the magmatic chamber can bring fresh magma periodically to shallow levels, allowing increasing degasification and then decreasing degasification as the batch of magma lowers its gas content, becomes denser, and sinks to give space to a new magma pulse. These results illustrate that the measurements of SO₂ flux can provide important warning signals for incoming explosive activity in active volcanoes.     

Mineral Weathering in a Semiarid Mountain River: Its assessment through PHREEQC inverse modeling

By means of PHREEQC inverse modeling, we have simulated the weathering reactions in Los Reartes River, a mountainous (2400–670 m a.s.l.) drainage basin from the Sierras Pampeanas of Córdoba, Argentina, analyzing the effect of lithology, relief, and climate. The steep upper half of the basin (slopes > 20) is occupied by exposed granite; the remaining area is mostly metamorphic, with cropping out gneisses and progressively decreasing slopes (< 6). Climate is semihumid to semiarid; rainfall mainly occurs in summer and decreases with decreasing height. PHREEQC inverse models developed using water chemical data showed that (a) oligoclase was the major supplier of solutes, while the main precipitated phase was kaolinite in the granite domain; (b) muscovite is the chief supplier of solutes and illite is the main precipitated phase in the gneissic realm; (c) the steeper portions of the metamorphic reach are less crucial in supplying solutes than the lower ones, thus highlighting the importance of the water residence time in the kinetics of dissolution; (d) in the driest time of the year (winter, 20 mm/month) we registered the highest production of dissolved and precipitated phases; fluxes (mmol/month), however, are higher at the end of the rainy season; (e) CO₂ consumption is important all along the Los Reartes drainage basin and, in terms of mmol/kg H₂O, the lowermost portion of the basin is the most significant supplier; (f) CO₂ accounts for over 50 of all the species involved in the weathering reactions occurring at the Los Reartes drainage basin.     

Hydrogeological investigation in Santiago Island (Cabo Verde) using magnetotellurics and VLF methods

A geoelectromagnetic research was carried out in the Santa Cruz region (Santiago Island, Cabo Verde) during June 2004. The survey comprised MT soundings and VLF profiles. The main purpose of the MT profile, carried out across three important valleys associated with freshwater aquifers, was to study the tectonic structures correlated to seawater infiltration. The VLF method was used inside of the valleys for investigating shallow structures related to the aquifer contamination by seawater.Numerical modelling shows that the ocean effect is not important for MT data collected at periods shorter than 1 s. The MT data were inverted using a two-dimensional approach, to obtain the sub-superficial electrical conductivity distribution. The VLF data were processed applying the Karous–Hjelt filters to obtain the equivalent current distribution and inverted using 2-D approach. The results obtained in one of the most important valleys show anomalous current concentration/low resistivity (<20 Ω m) areas at depths greater than 40 m that may correspond to an increase in seawater content.The MT data modelling show that the deep zones beneath the valley are strongly fractured representing good pathways for seawater circulation. The depth of the conductive zones increases from south to north, suggesting a northward decreasing of the seawater infiltration effect. This observation correlates very well with in situ geochemical observations.     

Experimental data on the speciation of sulfur as a function of oxygen fugacity in basaltic melts

The speciation of sulfur as a function of oxygen fugacity was calculated in glasses of basaltic composition saturated experimentally with either sulfide or sulfate phases. The experiments were conducted on mixtures of synthetic and natural materials equilibrated at 1300 °C and 1 GPa in a piston-cylinder apparatus. Sulfur speciation was calculated by measuring the peak shift of the sulfur Kα radiation relative to a sulfide standard, whereas oxygen fugacity was calculated from the composition of olivine and spinel present in the assemblages. The results are consistent with sulfur being present as sulfite (S⁴⁺) in addition to sulfate (S⁶⁺) in oxidized melts. Therefore, sulfur speciation derived from SKα peak shifts should be seen as ”sulfate mole fraction equivalents“ (X(S⁶⁺)_eq.). Using the data available, an empiric function:

X(S6+)_eq.=0.86/(1+exp(2.89−2.23ΔFMQ))     

Low‐frequency modulation and trend of the relationship between ENSO and precipitation along the northern to centre Peruvian Pacific coast

The relationship between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and precipitation along the Peruvian Pacific coast is investigated over 1964–2011 on the basis of a variety of indices accounting for the different types of El Niño events and atmospheric and oceanographic manifestations of the interannual variability in the tropical Pacific. We show the existence of fluctuations in the ENSO/precipitation relationship at decadal timescales that are associated with the ENSO property changes over the recent decades. Several indices are considered in order to discriminate the influence of the two types of El Niño, namely, the eastern Pacific El Niño and the central Pacific El Niño, as well as the influence of large‐scale atmospheric variability associated to the Madden and Julian Oscillation, and of regional oceanic conditions. Three main periods are identified that correspond to the interleave periods between the main climatic transitions over 1964–2011, i.e. the shifts of the 1970s and the 2000s, over which ENSO experiences significant changes in its characteristics. We show that the relationship between ENSO and precipitation along the western coast of Peru has experienced significant decadal change. Whereas El Niño events before 2000 lead to increased precipitation, in the 2000s, ENSO is associated to drier conditions. This is due to the change in the main ENSO pattern after 2000 that is associated to cooler oceanic conditions off Peru during warm events (i.e. central Pacific El Niño). Our analysis also indicates that the two extreme El Niño events of 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 have overshadowed actual trends in the relationship between interannual variability in the tropical Pacific and precipitation along the coast of Peru. Overall, our study stresses on the complexity of the hydrological cycle on the western side of the Andes with regard to its relationship with the interannual to decadal variability in the tropical Pacific. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.