A method for finding the optimal predictor indices for local wave climate conditions

In this study, a method to obtain local wave predictor indices that take into account the wave generation process is described and applied to several locations. The method is based on a statistical model that relates significant wave height with an atmospheric predictor, defined by sea level pressure fields. The predictor is composed of a local and a regional part, representing the sea and the swell wave components, respectively. The spatial domain of the predictor is determined using the Evaluation of Source and Travel-time of wave Energy reaching a Local Area (ESTELA) method. The regional component of the predictor includes the recent historical atmospheric conditions responsible for the swell wave component at the target point. The regional predictor component has a historical temporal coverage (n-days) different to the local predictor component (daily coverage). Principal component analysis is applied to the daily predictor in order to detect the dominant variability patterns and their temporal coefficients. Multivariate regression model, fitted at daily scale for different n-days of the regional predictor, determines the optimum historical coverage. The monthly wave predictor indices are selected applying a regression model using the monthly values of the principal components of the daily predictor, with the optimum temporal coverage for the regional predictor. The daily predictor can be used in wave climate projections, while the monthly predictor can help to understand wave climate variability or long-term coastal morphodynamic anomalies.     

Analysis of Environmental Bonding System for Oil and Gas Projects

This paper is concerned with potential financial impacts of different bonding instruments on oil and gas projects. An algorithm was prepared in order to assist decision makers, both regulators and industry, evaluate potential Net Present Value (NPV) impacts of financial instruments used to satisfy bonding requirements. Instrument option is the main variable for the proposed model. The user will be able to select between four instruments (Letters of Credit, Prepaid Collateral Closure Accounts, Leasing Specific Closure Accounts, and Ex-post Insurance Policies). This study includes simulations for three producing fields of different economically recoverable reserves (9 MMbbl, 53 MMbbl, and 148 MMbbl⁵), where four financial instruments, in addition to a no instrument scenario, are tested under a proposed bonding regime. Sensitivity analysis of NPV and Government Take (GT) value indicate ex-post insurance policies and letters of credit cause fewer impacts yielding significantly better payoffs. Preliminary simulations also confirm that small projects, around 9 MMbbl, can be severely affected when collateral account instruments are used.     

Elektronenmikroskopische Untersuchung von Nadeleisenerzooiden in Pulverpräparaten und Dünnschnitten

Zusammenfassung Elektronenmikroskopische Untersuchungen isolierter Nadeleisenerzooide in Ultradünnschnitten und Pulverpräparaten zeigen; daß das Nadeleisenerz hier in Form sechsseitiger rhombischer Blättchen (Durchmesser in der Größenordnung von 100–300 Å) vorliegt. Dünnschnittbilder lassen eine lageweise Anordnung der Blättchen im Ooid erkennen.     

Towards a spatial data infrastructure for technological disasters: an approach for the road transportation of hazardous materials

Spatial data have been used for the environmental monitoring of the consequences of accidents that involve the transportation of hazardous chemical products. This spatial data infrastructure (SDI), which was created for the sharing and use of spatial data, is limited by the absence of policies to support its establishment. The main objective of this study was to explore the use of social network analysis (SNA) as a tool to identify spatial data sharing between organizations involved in the management of accidents related to road transport of hazardous materials (RTHM). In addition, to discuss the existing policies and institutional agreements, and to initiate a conceptual SDI framework for RTHM sector. In this context, the institutions that are involved with RTHM were identified and information concerning their interest in the use and sharing of spatial data via a SDI was collected through interviews and consolidated. The interviews were at 39 institutions with representative employees. The interview data were tabulated and entered into the UCINET software (2000 version) to calculate metrics of centrality. From the SNA, the flow of data among the participating institutions was identified through the visual representation of the spatial data sharing and use networks. Subsequently, the existing institutional agreements for spatial data sharing were analyzed and discussed. The compiled results enabled the proposal of a conceptual SDI framework to support the management of disasters involving RTHM, based on the application of SNA theory, and the development of a methodology that supports the analysis of interactions among the various actors of an SDI. The purpose is to facilitate the formulation of policies for the sharing of spatial data for decision-making and preventive disaster management. The results indicate that the 39 institutions share spatial data, but this sharing is not always predetermined by formal agreements. Furthermore, there is a strong demand, by the institutions involved in the management of RTHM accidents, regarding legal mechanisms governing the sharing of data for the purpose of producing maps that help to describe actions of preparedness, prevention, management and immediate relief involving RTHM incidents. Finally, it was possible to propose a conceptual framework with data that is considered essential for creating an SDI for RTHM.     

Photosynthesis and Growth of Temperate and Sub-Tropical Estuarine Phytoplankton in a Scenario of Nutrient Enrichment under Solar Ultraviolet Radiation Exposure

We compared the responses of two estuarine phytoplankton communities, one from a temperate (Chubut River estuary (CH), Argentina) and one from a sub-tropical site (Babitonga Bay (BB), Brazil), in a scenario of nutrient enrichment under solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure. Seawater samples were exposed in microcosms to two nutrients, ambient vs. enriched, and two radiation conditions, with and without UVR, and exposed to solar radiation for 4 days. We evaluated the short- (PSII photochemistry, during 90 min light and 90 min dark cycles, before and after the , whereas in BB, nutrient effects prevailed. Such differences were related to the previous light history of the cells and to the ambient nutrient status. After acclimation, an overall improvement of the photosynthetic performance was observed at both sites, either by reducing the relative inhibition or by increasing the recovery of the effective photochemical quantum yield. Interactive effects of UVR and nutrients on growth at CH were antagonistic, while at BB, no differences were observed between the interactive and the sum of effects. Part of the differences in the mid-term observed responses can be attributed to taxonomic changes, with the CH community dominated by diatoms throughout the experiment, but with a shift from a diatom to a flagellate-dominated community in BB. Temperature differences between both sites might have favored higher growth rates and flagellates dominance in BB under the nutrient enriched conditions.     

The Santa Filomena meteorite shower: Trajectory,classification, and opaque phases as indicators of metamorphic conditions

On August 19, 2020, at 13:18—UTC, a meteor event ended as a meteorite shower in Santa Filomena, a city in the Pernambuco State, northeast Brazil. The heliocentric orbital parameters resulting from images by cameras of the weather broadcasting system were semimajor axis a = 2.1 ± 0.1 au, eccentricity e = 0.55 ± 0.03, and inclination i = 0.15^o ± 0.05. The data identified the body as an Apollo object, an Earth-crossing object with a pericenter interior to the Earth's orbit. The chemical, mineralogical, and petrological evaluations, as well as the physical analysis, followed several traditional techniques. The meteorite was identified as a H5-6 S4 W0 ordinary chondrite genomict breccia. The large amount of metal in the meteorite made a metallographic evaluation based on the opaque phases possible. The monocrystalline kamacite crystals suggest a higher petrological type and the distorted Neumann lines imply at least two different shock events. The absence of the plessite phase shows that the meteorite did not reach the highest shock levels S5 and S6. The well-defined polycrystalline taenite is indicative of petrologic types 4 and 5 due to the conserved internal tetrataenite rim at the boundaries. The presence of polycrystalline taenites and the characteristics of the Agrell Effect suggest that the Santa Filomena meteorite did not reheat above 700°C. The absence of martensite confirms reheating temperatures <800°C and a slow cooling rate. The Ni contents and sizes of the zoned taenite particles indicate a slow cooling rate ranging from 1 to 10 K Myr⁻¹.     

A GIS-based analysis of constraints on pedestrian tsunami evacuation routes: Cascais case study (Portugal)

Tsunami hazard in coastal areas susceptible to flooding, although reduced (in terms of probability of occurrence), may pose a high risk. Therefore, in these areas, a detailed evacuation planning of the affected population is required as a risk mitigation measure. The knowledge and enforcement of evacuation routes may reduce the population vulnerability, making it more resilient and reducing risk. This paper presents a GIS approach for modelling evacuation routes based on the optimal path search problem, of the graph theory, which is implemented on ArcCasper tool. The methodology proposed considers the elements involved in the evacuation process, the worst credible tsunami inundation scenario (hazard extent and travel time), the number of people that needs to be evacuated in different time scenarios, the safe areas or destination points of the evacuation routes, the roads network characteristics and finally the time available to evacuate. The knowledge of those elements allows predicting some possible outcomes of the evacuation, such as the arrival time of the evacuees to a shelter and the identification of congestion hot spots resulting from the application of a flocking model which simulates the path to be used by evacuees avoiding obstacles. The municipality of Cascais was used to test the methodology proposed in this study. Cascais is one of the largest urban centres located about 25 km west of Lisbon, Portugal, with a high density of infrastructure along the coastline whereby most of the population and economic activities are exposed to a tsunami. The results, presented in the form of maps, allow identifying the optimal evacuation routes as well as the unfeasible routes. This crucial information could be used to the evacuation optimization regarding the location of meeting points and vertical shelters as well as to improve the accessibility of the areas to be evacuated.     

Comparing quality of estuarine and nearshore intertidal habitats for Carcinus maenas

Estuarine and nearshore marine areas are vital habitats for several fish and benthic invertebrates. The shore crab Carcinus maenas (Crustacea: Brachyura: Portunidae) inhabits a variety of coastal, estuarine and lagoon habitats. At low tide, habitat structural complexity may be most important for crabs in the intertidal, providing refuge from predation and desiccation. The quality of different vegetated and nonvegetated estuarine and rocky shore habitats in SW Portugal and SW England was evaluated for intertidal C. maenas populations. We estimated population density, size–structure, and potential growth (RNA/DNA ratios) to investigate habitat quality. Vegetated estuarine habitats supported higher crab densities, than nonvegetated estuarine and rocky shore habitats. Investigation of population size–structure revealed that all habitats seem important recruitment and nursery areas although estuarine habitats in SW Portugal appeared to support higher densities of new recruits than equivalent habitats in SW England. Significant variation was found in RNA/DNA ratios among habitats. Ratios were highest in the rocky shore suggesting a high quality habitat where growth potential is high. We speculate that competition from other top-predators (Pachygrapsus spp.) rather than low habitat quality may limit the occurrence of C. maenas in intertidal rocky shore habitats in SW Portugal. In estuarine environments RNA/DNA ratios were significantly higher in the vegetated than in the nonvegetated estuarine habitats in SW Portugal but not in SW England, suggesting geographic differences in the extent to which highly structure habitats represent high quality. Our results challenge the current paradigm that structured habitats are necessarily those of higher quality for C. maenas.     

Estimating <Emphasis Type="Italic">probable maximum loss</Emphasis> from a Cascadia tsunami

The Cascadia margin is capable of generating large magnitude seismic-tsunami. We use a 1:500 year tsunami hazard flood layer produced during a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment as the input to a pilot study of the vulnerability of residential and commercial buildings in Seaside, OR, USA. We map building exposure, apply the Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment Model to calculate building vulnerability and estimate probable maximum loss (PML) associated with a 1:500 year tsunami flood. Almost US$0.5 billion worth of buildings would be inundated, 95% of single story residential and 23% of commercial buildings would be destroyed with PML’s exceeding US$0.5 billion worth of buildings would be inundated, 95% of single story residential and 23% of commercial buildings would be destroyed with PML’s exceeding US116 million. These figures only represent a tiny fraction of the total values of exposed assets and loss that would be associated with a Cascadia tsunami impacting the NW Pacific coast. Not withstanding the various issues associated with our approach, this study represents the first time that PML’s have ever been calculated for a Cascadia type tsunami, and these results have serious implications for tsunami disaster risk management in the region. This method has the potential to be rolled out across the United States and elsewhere for estimating building vulnerability and loss to tsunami.