The definition of potential infiltration areas in Guaratinguetá watershed, Paraíba do Sul Basin, Southeastern Brazil: an integrated approach using physical and land-use elements

This work describes the methodological approach used for mapping the potential infiltration areas of the Guaratinguetá watershed (160?km²), situated in Southeastern Brazil. The method is considered a qualitative approach, which takes into account thematic maps (geology, pedology, geomorphology, and land use/land cover) and the precipitation spatial distribution. A group of experts in Earth Sciences and Geotechnical Engineering has applied an infiltration potential scale factor that ranges from 5 (highest influence) to 1 (lowest influence). The final infiltration map was produced using several ArcGIS^? tools. The results showed that the most suitable (very high) infiltration areas represent only around 7% of the watershed area, which are associated with smooth and gentle hills, fluvial Tertiary sediments and yellow oxisols. However, growing impacts caused by land farming and urban developments require urgent planning for this region. Areas with high to moderate capacity of infiltration represent around 56% of the watershed and are found in the domain of igneous-metamorphic rocks associated with steep hill-slopes and relatively well-preserved forest fragments. This region requires a land-use strategy, such as reforestation programs, in order to increase the infiltration capacity of the watershed.     

Population structure, density and food sources of Terebralia palustris (Potamididae: Gastropoda) in a low intertidal Avicennia marina mangrove stand (Inhaca Island, Mozambique)

Population structure and distribution of Terebralia palustris were compared with the environmental parameters within microhabitats in a monospecific stand of Avicennia marina in southern Mozambique. Stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses of T. palustris and potential food sources (leaves, pneumatophore epiphytes, and surface sediments) were examined to establish the feeding preferences of T. palustris. Stable isotope signatures of individuals of different size classes and from different microhabitats were compared with local food sources. Samples of surface sediments 2.5–10 m apart showed some variation (−21.2‰ to −23.0‰) in δ¹³C, probably due to different contributions from seagrasses, microalgae and mangrove leaves, while δ¹⁵N values varied between 8.7‰ and 15.8‰, indicating that there is a very high variability within a small-scale microcosm. Stable isotope signatures differed significantly between the T. palustris size classes and between individuals of the same size class, collected in different microhabitats. Results also suggested that smaller individuals feed on sediment, selecting mainly benthic microalgae, while larger individuals feed on sediment, epiphytes and mangrove leaves. Correlations were found between environmental parameters and gastropod population structure and distribution vs. the feeding preferences of individuals of different size classes and in different microhabitats. While organic content and the abundance of leaves were parameters that correlated best with the total density of gastropods (>85%), the abundance of pneumatophores and leaves, as well as grain size, correlated better with the gastropod size distribution (>65%). Young individuals (height < 3 cm) occur predominantly in microhabitats characterized by a low density of leaf litter and pneumatophores, reduced organic matter and larger grain size, these being characteristic of lower intertidal open areas that favour benthic microalgal growth. With increasing shell height, T. palustris individuals start occupying microhabitats nearer the mangrove trees characterized by large densities of pneumatophores and litter, as well as sediments of smaller grain size, leading to higher organic matter availability in the sediment.     

Tracing salinization processes in coastal aquifers using an isotopic and geochemical approach: comparative studies in western Morocco and southwest Portugal

Environmental stable and radioactive isotopes (δ²H, δ¹³C, δ¹⁸O; ³H and ¹⁴C), together with physical and geochemical data, were used in the determination of the origins of groundwater salinization and geochemical evolution processes in coastal regions. Two case studies on the Atlantic Coast are discussed, one located in the Essaouira sedimentary basin, western Morocco, and the second, in the Lower Tagus–Sado sedimentary basin, southwest Portugal. In both regions, groundwater degradation occurs by salinization increase to different concentrations and in relation to different origins. The main quality issues for the groundwater resources are related to seawater intrusion, dissolution of diapiric structures intruding the aquifer layers, brine dissolution at depth, and/or evaporation of irrigation water. Anthropogenic pollution ascribed to agricultural activities is another source for groundwater degradation, affecting mainly the shallow aquifers. The apparent ¹⁴C age of the analysed samples ranges from 2.9?±?0.3 up to 45.6?±?0.6 pmC in the Miocene groundwater samples from the basin in Portugal; at the Essaouira basin in Morocco, the ¹⁴C content varies from 60 to 86 pmC. In most of the water samples, the ³H concentration is below the detection limit. In both basins, the isotopic results together with the geochemical data provided an effective label for tracing the mineralization origin and groundwater degradation processes. Further, the isotopic signatures were used in the identification of a paleoclimate (colder period), recorded in the stable isotopic composition and corroborated with the ¹⁴C data.     

Fatal landslides in Europe

Landslides are a major hazard causing human and large economic losses worldwide. However, the quantification of fatalities and casualties is highly underestimated and incomplete, thus, the estimation of landslide risk is rather ambitious. Hence, a spatio-temporal distribution of deadly landslides is presented for 27 European countries over the last 20  years (1995–2014). Catastrophic landslides are widely distributed throughout Europe, however, with a great concentration in mountainous areas. In the studied period, a total of 1370 deaths and 784 injuries were reported resulting from 476 landslides. Turkey showed the highest fatalities with 335. An increasing trend of fatal landslides is observed, with a pronounced number of fatalities in the latest period from 2008 to 2014. The latter are mostly triggered by natural extreme events such as storms (i.e., heavy rainfall), earthquakes, and floods and only minor by human activities, such as mining and excavation works. Average economic loss per year in Europe is approximately 4.7 billion Euros. This study serves as baseline information for further risk mapping by integrating deadly landslide locations, local land use data, and will therefore help countries to protect human lives and property.     

Estuarine flooding in urban areas: enhancing vulnerability assessment

The assessment of vulnerability provides valuable knowledge in the risk assessment steps of a risk governance process. Given the multiscale, multilevel, and multisectorial aspects of flood risk, the diversified entities that directly and indirectly intervene in risk management require specific outputs from the assessment studies. Urban areas in estuarine margins are particularly exposed and vulnerable to flooding. Such interface conditions are found in the Old City Centre of the Seixal, located in the Tagus estuary, Portugal. Here, two distinct methodologies were applied for the assessment of territorial vulnerability. A regional, lower-scale, methodology explores the application of the statistical procedure based on the SoVI^® at the statistical block level. A second, local and higher-scale, methodology is based in data collected through field matrices at the building and statistical sub-block level. Comparison of results revealed that the lower-scale assessment provides information on the vulnerability drivers at the regional and municipal level. Nevertheless, only at a higher-scale, it is possible to characterize and differentiate the smaller geographical units of analysis that compose the Old City Centre of Seixal. The lower-scale vulnerability assessment allows a strategic response, based on adaptation measures such as spatial planning, institutional capacity building and public awareness. The local level assessment provides more accurate knowledge to support local emergency planning and the allocation of operational and material resources at the urban level. Nevertheless, rather than antagonistic, both models can be considered as complementary, having in mind the requirements of an holistic flood risk governance model.

     

Forecasting the HIV epidemic in Finland by using functional small area units

The purpose of this study is to analyze the development of the HIV epidemic in Finland in 1983–1994, and to predict the spatial distribution of new cases through 1997. The analysis is based on seroepidemiological data of all reported HIV carriers and a number of explaining variables based on individual level register data. Instead of focusing on populations of carriers and susceptibles, emphasis is placed on identifying the primary influences directing the epidemic as a spatial process. This is done by dividing Finland into 62 functional small area units and by assigning the risk of obtaining the virus to each unit based on behavioral, socioeconomic, interaction, and structural characteristics of the population. The approach is a multistep procedure including multivariate regression analysis, the potential model, and time series analysis. The model was used to produce a three-year forecast of the distribution of new HIV carriers in Finland. Compared with earlier studies of similar nature based on the use of administrative regional units, in this paper the forecast distribution of HIV cases is more closely related to the functional structure of the spatial system in Finland. Such an approach offers a method for producing more reliable short-term forecasts of the spatial distribution of new HIV cases. Three different spatial diffusion patterns were identified.     

On Mathematical Aspects of a Combined Inversion of Gravity and Normal Mode Variations by a Spline Method

This paper provides a brief overview of two linear inverse problems concerned with the determination of the Earth’s interior: inverse gravimetry and normal mode tomography. Moreover, a vector spline method is proposed for a combined solution of both problems. This method uses localised basis functions, which are based on reproducing kernels, and is related to approaches which have been successfully applied to the inverse gravimetric problem and the seismic traveltime tomography separately.     

Future evolution of a tidal inlet due to changes in wave climate, Sea level and lagoon morphology (Óbidos lagoon, Portugal)

Tidal inlets are extremely dynamic, as a result of an often delicate balance between the effects of tides, waves and other forcings. Since the morphology of these inlets can affect navigation, water quality and ecosystem dynamics, there is a clear need to anticipate their evolution in order to promote adequate management decisions. Over decadal time scales, the position and size of tidal inlets are expected to evolve with the conditions that affect them, for instance as a result of climate change. A process-based morphodynamic modeling system is validated and used to analyze the effects of sea level rise, an expected shift in the wave direction and the reduction of the upper lagoon surface area by sedimentation on a small tidal inlet (Óbidos lagoon, Portugal). A new approach to define yearly wave regimes is first developed, which includes a seasonal behavior, random inter-annual variability and the possibility to extrapolate trends. Once validated, this approach is used to produce yearly time series of wave spectra for the present and for the end of the 21st century, considering the local rotation trends computed using hindcast results for the past 57 years. Predictions of the mean sea level for 2100 are based on previous studies, while the bathymetry of the upper lagoon for the same year is obtained by extrapolation of past trends. Results show, and data confirm, that the Óbidos lagoon inlet has three stable configurations, largely determined by the inter-annual variations in the wave characteristics. Both sea level rise and the reduction of the lagoon surface area will promote the accretion of the inlet. In contrast, the predicted rotation of the wave regime, within foreseeable limits, will have a negligible impact on the inlet morphology.     

Correlating Alpine glaciation with Adriatic sea‐level changes through lake and alluvial stratigraphy

We compare lake and alluvial stratigraphy along a frame connecting the southern Alpine foothills and the Adriatic Sea, with the aim of matching the effects of Alpine glaciation and sea‐level changes on sedimentation during the last glacial cycle. The palynostratigraphy of Lake Fimon provided proxies for regional vegetation and climate change and was coupled with sediment petrography, loss on ignition and magnetic susceptibility, disentangling alluvial phases from fluvioglacial activity related to culminations of the southeastern Alpine glaciers. The Fimon area was not reached by alluvial fans during the penultimate glacial maximum, nor by the sea transgression during the last interglacial, but a closed lake soon developed at the Eemian onset due to enhanced rainfall. Sea‐level fall at glacial inception triggered the entrenchment of the drainage network in the plain reaching the outer Fimon Basin. Slow aggradation, but no sign of fluvioglacial activity, lasted to 38.2 ± 1.45 cal. ka BP, when a major forest withdrawal took place, coeval to the spread of alluvial fans. By 27.5 ± 0.5 cal. ka BP the Fimon Basin was dammed by the Brenta outwash system. The main step of of forest recovery commenced at around (15.8) cal. ka BP, when apex trenching of the outwash fans was triggered by the glacier's decay. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The dynamics of sediment‐associated contaminants over a transition from drought to multiple flood events in a lowland UK catchment

Fine sediment in suspended form, recently deposited overbank and in temporary storage on or in channel beds, was collected in the Nene basin during a period of drought through to a period of four high flows. The sediment was analysed for arsenic, copper, lead, phosphorus and zinc concentrations with the aim of investigating their sources, movement, temporary storage and potential for environmental harm. Copper, lead and zinc probably originated from urban street dusts, phosphorus (originally in dissolved form) from sewage effluent and arsenic from natural soils developed over ironstone. There was little difference in the metal or arsenic concentrations in the sediment under different flow conditions; instead, proximity to pollutant sources appeared to control their concentrations. Phosphorus in tributary sub‐catchments probably adsorbed to sediment during periods of low flow but these sediments were flushed away during high flows and replaced by sediment with lower concentrations. However, concentrations of all pollutants in overbank sediments along the Nene's main channel were not reduced in successive flood events, suggesting no first flush effect. Only phosphorus accumulated on sediment at concentrations exceeding those of its catchment‐based sources (e.g. street dusts, channel banks and catchment soils). This scavenging of aqueous phosphate by sediment explained the difference in behaviour between phosphorus, arsenic and heavy metals. The surface area and organic matter content were shown to have a small effect on contaminant concentrations. Street dust contaminants only exceeded predicted effect levels in close proximity to urban areas, suggesting a small potential for harm to the aquatic environment. Arsenic concentrations exceeded predicted effect levels in most sediment samples. However, it has been shown to be largely non‐bioavailable in previously published research on the Nene, limiting its potential for significant environmental harm. Phosphorus concentrations in river sediments are high in comparison to the soils in the catchment and in comparison with sediment–P concentrations in other published lowland catchment studies, indicating a large potential for eutrophication should the Phosphorus be, or become, bioavailable. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.