An Atlas of ShakeMaps and population exposure catalog for earthquake loss modeling

We present an Atlas of ShakeMaps and a catalog of human population exposures to moderate-to-strong ground shaking (EXPO-CAT) for recent historical earthquakes (1973–2007). The common purpose of the Atlas and exposure catalog is to calibrate earthquake loss models to be used in the US Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER). The full ShakeMap Atlas currently comprises over 5,600 earthquakes from January 1973 through December 2007, with almost 500 of these maps constrained—to varying degrees—by instrumental ground motions, macroseismic intensity data, community internet intensity observations, and published earthquake rupture models. The catalog of human exposures is derived using current PAGER methodologies. Exposure to discrete levels of shaking intensity is obtained by correlating Atlas ShakeMaps with a global population database. Combining this population exposure dataset with historical earthquake loss data, such as PAGER-CAT, provides a useful resource for calibrating loss methodologies against a systematically-derived set of ShakeMap hazard outputs. We illustrate two example uses for EXPO-CAT; (1) simple objective ranking of country vulnerability to earthquakes, and; (2) the influence of time-of-day on earthquake mortality. In general, we observe that countries in similar geographic regions with similar construction practices tend to cluster spatially in terms of relative vulnerability. We also find little quantitative evidence to suggest that time-of-day is a significant factor in earthquake mortality. Moreover, earthquake mortality appears to be more systematically linked to the population exposed to severe ground shaking (Modified Mercalli Intensity VIII+). Finally, equipped with the full Atlas of ShakeMaps, we merge each of these maps and find the maximum estimated peak ground acceleration at any grid point in the world for the past 35 years. We subsequently compare this “composite ShakeMap” with existing global hazard models, calculating the spatial area of the existing hazard maps exceeded by the combined ShakeMap ground motions. In general, these analyses suggest that existing global, and regional, hazard maps tend to overestimate hazard. Both the Atlas of ShakeMaps and EXPO-CAT have many potential uses for examining earthquake risk and epidemiology. All of the datasets discussed herein are available for download on the PAGER Web page (). T. I. Allen and M. G. Hearne—contracted through Synergetics Incorporated.     

Data reporting norms for 40Ar/39Ar geochronology

Data reported in ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar geochronology studies are commonly insufficient to allow computation of ages. This deficiency renders it difficult to compare ages based on different standards or constants, and often hinders critical evaluation of the results. Herein are presented an enumeration of the data that should be reported in all ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar studies, including a discussion in support of these requirements. The minimum required data are identified and distinguished from parameters that are useful but may be derived from them by calculation. Finally, recommendations are made for metadata needed to document age calculations (e.g., from age spectrum or isochron analyses).     

Age and nature of eclogites in the Huwan shear zone,and the multi-stage evolution of the Qinling-Dabie-Sulu orogen,central China

In situ LA-ICPMS U-Pb, trace element, and Hf isotope data in zircon demonstrate a Carboniferous age for eclogite-facies metamorphism in Siluro-Devonian protoliths in the Huwan shear zone, Dabie Mountains, Central China. This age contrasts with the more prevailing Triassic age for high- to ultrahigh pressure (HP to UHP) metamorphism in the Qinling-Dabie-Sulu orogen. Metamorphic zircon in two eclogite samples from Sujiahe is characterized by low Th/U ratios, small negative Eu anomalies, flat HREE patterns, and low ¹⁷⁶Lu/¹⁷⁷Hf ratios. These geochemical signatures suggest that the zircon crystallized in the presence of garnet and in the absence of plagioclase feldspar. Furthermore, temperatures of ~ 655 and ~ 638 °C, calculated using the Ti content of zircon, are consistent with their formation during eclogite-facies metamorphism. The weighted mean ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U age of 309 ± 4 Ma (2δ) for this zircon improves previous age estimates for eclogite-facies metamorphism in the Huwan shear zone, ranging from 420 to 220 Ma. Metamorphic zircon from one eclogite sample from Hujiawan, most likely formed during prograde metamorphism, yields an equivalent age estimate of 312 ± 11 Ma. Magmatic zircon cores in the three samples yield ages for the magmatic protoliths of the eclogites ranging from 420 ± 7 to 406 ± 5 Ma, and post-dating the middle Paleozoic collision of the North China and the Qinling terrain. The zircon crystals in the three eclogite samples display a large variation of ε_Hf (t) values of ? 4.9 to 21.3. The metamorphic zircon overgrowths show the same range of ε_Hf (t) values as those of the inherited magmatic crystal interiors. This suggests that the metamorphic zircon overgrowths may have formed by dissolution-reprecipitation of pre-existing magmatic zircon thereby preserving their original Hf isotopic composition. The high ε_Hf (t) values suggest that the protoliths were derived from depleted mantle sources, most likely Paleotethyan oceanic crust; while the low ε_Hf (t) values are attributed to crustal contamination. Some eclogites in the Huwan shear zone have a distinctive signature of continental crust most probably derived from the Yangtze Craton. The coexistence of Paleozoic oceanic crust and Neoproterozoic continental crust with similar metamorphic ages in the Huwan shear zone implies that Paleozoic Paleotethyan oceanic crust was produced within a marginal basin of the northern Yangtze Craton. The opening of the Paleo-Tethyan ocean was slightly younger than the collision of the North China Craton and the Qinling terrain during the Late Paleozoic in the Qinling-Dabie-Sulu orogen. Subduction of the Paleo-Tethyan oceanic crust and associated continental basement resulted in the 309 ± 2 Ma (2σ) eclogite-facies metamorphism in the Huwan shear zone. The subsequent Triassic continent-continent collision led to the final coalescence of the Yangtze and Sino-Korean cratons. Amalgamation of the Yangtze and North China cratons was, therefore, a multistage process extending over at least 200 Ma.     

Frictional sliding in serpentine at very high pressure

Using a new four-channel system for detecting acoustic emissions in a multianvil apparatus, we have assessed the pressure–temperature range for such emissions, as well as the role of dehydration, by deforming samples of extensively serpentinized peridotite. We show that in the absence of dehydration and for samples initially faulted at low pressure, acoustic emissions occurred well outside the expected pressure–temperature field of unassisted brittle failure. Emissions were also detected during and after dehydration of serpentine. Microstructures of post-run specimens revealed fault slip with offsets up to ~ 500 μm, regardless of whether or not dehydration took place. Dehydration appears to effectively stop slip on pre-existing faults and create new ones. Analysis of P-wave travel times from the four sensors confirmed that the acoustic emissions originated within the specimen during fault slip. These observations suggest that earthquakes can be triggered by slip along an existing fault containing serpentine under significantly higher pressure and temperature conditions than previously thought possible without dehydration.     

The 18 June 1997 Companion supercells: Multiparametric Doppler radar analysis

Summary ?On 18 June 1997 two simultaneous supercells 50 km apart swept the Po valley W-NW to E-SE. An exceptional hailfall lasted for more than 3 hours over a strip 200 km wide. There are no records of companion supercells over northern Italy, a fact that attributes to the present observations a considerable meteorological interest. The forcing due to a baroclinic wave disturbance created the synoptic conditions favourable for storm development. A closer mesoscale analysis conducted using the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) indicates that the interaction of the storm systems with the low-level frontal high-humidity band is a key aspect of their evolution. The operational polarimetric Doppler weather radar of S. Pietro Capofiume was used for a volumetric analysis of the storm system focusing on the microphysical and dynamical structure, and wind patterns. Reflectivity and Doppler wind fields document the transition from multicell to supercell phase for one of the storms. Differential reflectivity (Z_DR) fields are examined. Positive Z_DR columns are detected in connection with the storms strong updraft. Flare echoes hint to the presence of substantial hailshafts. The spectrum width field is used to investigate internal motions. Limited dual Doppler analysis is carried out and results are discussed in terms of storm evolution properties. Received June 30, 1999/Revised February 3, 2000     

Cloud drop spectra at different levels and with respect to cloud thickness and rain

Measurements on drop size were made in cumulus clouds over Pune (inland region) during the summer monsoon seasons. In this paper, the measurements of the cloud drop spectra made in non-raining clouds at different levels and for different thickness have been studied. Also, those on the days with rain and with no rain (the rain being observed within the clouds) have been compared. The average spectra broadened with height. The concentration of drops >50 μm (N_L), liquid water content (LWC), mean volume diameter (MVD) and dispersion increased with height. The concentration of drops <20 μm (N_S) and total concentration (N_T) decreased with height. The spectra were broader, while N_S and N_T are smaller and the other parameters are greater for thicker clouds as compared to those for thinner. The spectra were broader, while N_S and N_T are smaller and the other parameters are greater on the days with rain with respect to those on the days with no rain. The distributions were bimodal at higher levels, for thicker clouds and on the days with rain, while they were unimodal at lower levels, for thinner clouds and on the days with no rain. The variations of the cloud drop spectra, preceding rain, at initial stage of rain and following rain are discussed.     

Partition coefficients of Nb and Ta between rutile and anhydrous haplogranite melts

Partition coefficients (D) for Nb and Ta between rutile and haplogranite melts in the K₂O-Al₂O₃-SiO₂ system have been measured as functions of the K₂O/Al₂O₃ ratio, the concentrations of Nb₂O₅ and Ta₂O₅, the temperature, in air and at 1 atmosphere pressure. The Ds increase in value as the K^* [K₂O/(K₂O + Al₂O₃)] molar ratio continuously decreases from highly peralkaline [K^* ∼ 0.9] to highly peraluminous [K^* ∼ 0.35] melts. The D values increase more dramatically with a unit decrease in K^* in peraluminous melts than in peralkaline melts. This compositional dependence of Ds can be explained by the high activity of NbAlO₄ species in peraluminous melts and the high activity of KONb species (or low activity of NbAlO₄ species) in peralkaline melts. A coupled substitution, Al⁺³ + Nb⁺⁵ (or Ta⁺⁵) = 2Ti⁺⁴, accounts for the Ds of Nb (Ta) being much greater in peraluminous melts than in peralkaline melts because this substitution allows Nb (Ta) to enter into the rutile structure more easily. The Ds of Ta between rutile and melt are greater than those of Nb at comparable concentrations because the molecular electronic polarizability of Ta is weaker than that of Nb. The Nb⁺⁵ with a large polarizing power forms a stronger covalent bond with oxygen than Ta⁺⁵ with a small polarizing power. The formation of the strong bond, Nb-O, distorts the rutile structure more severely than the weak bond, Ta-O; therefore, it is easier for Ta to partition into rutile than for Nb. These results imply that the utilization of the Nb/Ta ratio in liquid as a petrogenetic indicator in granitic melts must be done with caution if rutile (or other TiO₂-rich phases) is a liquidus phase. The crystallization of rutile will increase the Nb/Ta ratio of the residual liquid because the Ds of Ta between rutile and melts are greater than those of Nb. Received: 28 December 1998 / Accepted 27 September 1999     

Characterization of high molecular weight biomarkers in crude oils

High-temperature gas chromatography (HTGC) has enhanced our ability to characterize hydrocarbons extending to C₁₂₀ in crude oils. As a result, hydrocarbons in waxes (> C₂₀) have been observed to vary significantly between crude oils, even those presumed to originate from the same source. Prior to this development, microcrystalline waxes containing hydrocarbons above C₄₀ were not characterized on a molecular level due to the analytical limitations of conventional gas chromatography. Routine screenings of high pour-point crude oils by high-temperature gas chromatography has revealed that high molecular weight hydrocarbons (> C₄₀) are very common in most oils and may represent 2% of the crude oil. Precise structures, origins, and significance of these high molecular weight compounds remain elusive. As a preliminary step to expand our knowledge of these compounds their general molecular structures and formulas have been investigated in this study. Initial results suggest that the major high molecular weight compounds include a homologous series of n-alkanes, methylbranched alkanes, alkylcyclopentanes, alkylcyclohexanes, alkylbenzenes and alkylcycloalkanes.