Trends in northern midlatitude atmospheric wave power from 1950 to 2099

In a warming climate, atmospheric wave activity and associated weather patterns may change, although conflicting results have been reported on this topic. Additionally, atmospheric wave changes in a future climate have mainly focused on waves of a specified spatial scale, rather than a particular spatiotemporal scale. Here, changes in the variability of Rossby waves of multiple spatiotemporal scales are analyzed using the wavenumber-frequency power spectrum, a tool commonly applied to analyze atmospheric equatorial waves. Daily 500 hPa geopotential height data over 40°–60°N from historical (1950–2005) and future (2006–2099) simulations from 20 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under the RCP8.5 scenario were analyzed. When compared to the historical period, the late 21st century climate projections showed a decline in spectral power for both eastward and westward propagating waves with wavenumbers greater than 8 that spanned over all frequencies in all seasons, but an increase in mean power for eastward propagating waves with wavenumbers 1–7 over all frequencies was shown in winter and spring. This increase in power was accompanied by increased variance, i.e., an increased meridional extent of 500 hPa ridges and troughs, and was the result of increases in the mean number of high amplitude events and duration of activity within this wave band. These results indicate that large-scale (~ 104 km) eastward propagating weather systems may intensify with higher amplitudes for ridges and troughs, while short-scale (102–103 km) weather systems may decrease in their intensity due to reduced variability in the late 21st century under the high emissions scenario. Potential mechanisms for these changes are discussed, including enhanced Arctic warming and midlatitude-tropical interactions.     

Forced fortnightly tides in shallow rivers

Abstract

The presence and the basic features of the forced fortnightly wave observed in some shallow rivers are explained through scaling arguments which show that this wave is generated by the fortnightly modulation of the frictional forces due to the variation in tidal velocities. Comparison of the results with sea‐level records from a shallow reach of the St Lawrence River shows reasonable agreement between data and theory.     

Geometric consistency for regression model estimation and testing in climatology and meteorology

Abstract

The effects of outliers on linear regression are examined. The sensitivity of classical least‐squares (LS) procedures to outliers is shown to be associated with the geometric inconsistency between the data space and the analysis space. This is illustrated for both estimation and inference. A geometrically consistent procedure based on the Euclidean distance is proposed. This procedure involves the least absolute deviation (LAD) regression and a new permutation test for matched pairs (PTMP). Comparisons made with LS techniques demonstrate that the proposed procedure is more resistant to the existence of outliers in the data set and leads to more intuitive results. Applications and illustrations using meteorological and climatological data are also discussed.     

Recent progress in the operational forecasting of summer severe weather

Abstract

Summer severe weather (SSW) can strike suddenly and unexpectedly with disastrous consequences for human activity. Considerable progress has been made in the past ten years in the operational forecasting of SSW. Traditionally, SSW was defined to consist of tornadoes, strong winds, hail, lightning and heavy rain. Hazardous types of strong winds have recently been expanded to include microbursts, macrobursts and surfacing rear inflow jet damage behind mesoscale convective systems. Doppler radar was used to relate surface damage to the appropriate atmospheric phenomena, first diagnostically and then prognostically. This improvement in classification has fedback to and improved the forecast process. Concurrent progress has been made in the use of synoptic observations. The concept of helical wind profiles and improved knowledge of the role of dry mid‐level air has improved the forecasting of tornadoes and strong gusty winds. Moisture flux convergence, derived from surface measurements, shows great promise in identifying areas of storm initiation. Satellite imagery has been used to identify dynamical atmospheric boundaries. Numerical modelling of the interaction of environmental wind profiles and individual thunderstorms has greatly contributed to the understanding of SSW. Studies of spatial and temporal patterns of lightning, both specific cases and climatology, contribute to the forecasting of severe storms. Polarization radar results have shown progress in separating the signals of hail from those of rain and in the improved measurement of heavy rainfalls. Radar observation of clear air boundaries and their interactions show potential for the forecasting of thunderstorm initiation. Though not traditionally considered part of SSW, hurricanes that evolve into extra‐tropical storms share many of the same hazardous features. The progress in computing, communications and display technologies has also made substantial contributions to operational forecasting and to the dissemination of weather warnings.     

Tree-ring reconstructed summer temperature anomalies for temperate East Asia since 800 C.E.

We develop a summer temperature reconstruction for temperate East Asia based on a network of annual tree-ring chronologies covering the period 800–1989 C.E. The East Asia reconstruction is the regional average of 585 individual grid point summer temperature reconstructions produced using an ensemble version of point-by-point regression. Statistical calibration and validation tests indicate that the regional average possesses sufficient overall skill to allow it to be used to study the causes of temperature variability and change over the region. The reconstruction suggests a moderately warm early medieval epoch (ca. 850–1050 C.E.), followed by generally cooler ‘Little Ice Age’ conditions (ca. 1350–1880 C.E.) and 20th century warming up to the present time. Since 1990, average temperature has exceeded past warm epochs of comparable duration, but it is not statistically unprecedented. Superposed epoch analysis reveals a volcanic forcing signal in the East Asia summer temperature reconstruction, resulting in pulses of cooler summer conditions that may persist for several years. Substantial uncertainties remain, however, particularly at lower frequencies, thus requiring caution and scientific prudence in the interpretation of this record.     

Achieving additional emission reductions under a cap-and-trade scheme

Over the last decade, cap-and-trade emissions schemes have emerged as one of the favoured policy instruments for reducing GHG emissions. An inherent design feature of cap-and-trade schemes is that, once the cap on emissions has been set, no additional reductions beyond this level can be provided by the actions of those individuals, organizations and governments within the covered sectors. Thus, the emissions cap constitutes an emissions floor. This feature has been claimed by some to have undesirable implications, in that it discourages ethically motivated mitigation actions and preempts the possibility that local, state and national governments can take additional mitigation action in the context of weak national or regional targets. These criticisms have become prominent in Australia and the US within the public debate regarding the adoption of an emissions trading scheme (ETS). These criticisms and their potential solutions are reviewed. A set-aside reserve is proposed to automatically retire ETS permits, which would correspond to verified and additional emissions reductions. This minimizes the possibility that ethically motivated mitigation actions are discouraged, allows for additional action by other levels of government, while providing transparency to other market participants on the level of permit retirements.     

On the Use of Meteor Camera Systems in the Detection of Kuiper Belt Objects Through Serendipitous Stellar Occultations

The direct detection of Kuiper Belt Objects (KBOs) by telescopic imaging is not currently practical for objects much less than 100 km in diameter. However, indirect methods such as serendipitous stellar occultations might still be employed to detect these bodies. The method of serendipitous stellar occultations has been previously used with some success in detecting KBOs—Roques et al. (Astron J 132(2):819–822, 2006) detected three Trans-Neptunian objects; Schlichting et al. (Nature 462(7275):895–897, 2009) and Schlichting et al. (Astrophys J 761:150, 2012) each detected a single object in archival Hubble Space Telescope data. However, previous assessments of KBO occultation detection rates have been calculated only for telescopes—we extend this method to video camera systems, and we apply this derivation to the automated meteor camera systems currently in use at the University of Western Ontario. We find that in a typical scenario we can expect one occultation per month. However recent studies such as those of Shankman et al. (Astrophys. J. Lett. 764. doi:10.1088/2041-8205/764/1/L2, 2013) and Gladman et al. (AAS/Division for Planetary Sciences Meeting Abstracts, 2012) which indicate that the population of small KBOs may be smaller than has been assumed in the past may result in a sharp reduction of these rates. Nonetheless, a survey for KBO occultations using existing meteor camera systems may provide valuable information about the number density of KBOs.     

Time-Distance Seismology and the Solar Transition Region

Time-Distance ‘travel time’ perturbations (as inferred from wave phase) are calculated relative to the quiet-Sun as a function of wave orientation and field inclination in a uniform inclined magnetic field. Modelling indicates that the chromosphere-corona Transition Region (TR) profoundly alters travel times at inclinations from the vertical θ for which the ramp-reduced acoustic cutoff frequency ω _c cosθ is similar to the wave frequency ω. At smaller inclinations phase shifts are much smaller as the waves are largely reflected before reaching the TR. At larger inclinations, the shifts resume their quiet-Sun values, although with some resonant oscillatory behaviour. Changing the height of the TR in the model atmosphere has some effect, but the thickness and temperature jump do not change the results substantially. There is a strong correspondence between travel-time shifts and the Alfvén flux that emerges at the top of the modelled region as a result of fast/Alfvén mode conversion. We confirm that the TR transmission coefficient for Alfvén waves generated by mode conversion in the chromosphere is far larger (typically 30 % or more) than for Alfvén waves injected from the photosphere.     

Atmospheric entry profiles from the Mars Exploration Rovers Spirit and Opportunity

Accelerometer measurements made by Spirit and Opportunity during their entries through the martian atmosphere are reported. Vertical profiles of atmospheric density, pressure, and temperature with sub-km vertical resolution were obtained using these data between 10 and 100 km. Spirit's temperature profile is ∼10 K warmer than Opportunity's between 20 and 80 km. Unlike all other martian entry profiles, Spirit's temperature profile does not contain any large amplitude, long wavelength oscillations and is nearly isothermal below 30 km. Opportunity's temperature profile contains a strong inversion between 8 and 12 km. A moderate dust storm, which occurred on Mars shortly before these two atmospheric entries, may account for some of the differences between the two profiles. The poorly known angle of attack and unknown wind velocity may cause the temperature profiles to contain errors of tens of Kelvin at 10 km, but these errors would be an order of magnitude smaller above 30 km. On broad scales, the two profiles are consistent with Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) pressure/temperature profiles. Differences exist on smaller scales, particularly associated with the near-isothermal portion of Spirit's profile and the temperature inversion in Opportunity's profile.