Debris flows and their toll on human life: a global analysis of debris-flow fatalities from 1950 to 2011

Debris flows cause significant damage and fatalities throughout the world. This study addresses the overall impacts of debris flows on a global scale from 1950 to 2011. Two hundred and thirteen events with 77,779 fatalities have been recorded from academic publications, newspapers, and personal correspondence. Spatial, temporal, and physical characteristics have been documented and evaluated. In addition, multiple socioeconomic indicators have been reviewed and statistically analyzed to evaluate whether vulnerable populations are disproportionately affected by debris flows. This research provides evidence that higher levels of fatalities tend to occur in developing countries, characterized by significant poverty, more corrupt governments, and weaker healthcare systems. The median number of fatalities per recorded deadly debris flow in developing countries is 23, while in advanced countries, this value is only 6 fatalities per flow. The analysis also indicates that the most common trigger for fatal events is extreme precipitation, particularly in the form of large seasonal storms such as cyclones and monsoon storms. Rainfall caused or triggered 143 of the 213 fatal debris flows within the database. However, it is the more uncommon and catastrophic triggers, such as earthquakes and landslide dam bursts, that tend to create debris flows with the highest number of fatalities. These events have a median fatality count >500, while rainfall-induced debris flows have a median fatality rate of only 9 per event.     

Measuring earthquake risk concentration for hazard mitigation

One of the biggest impacts of a disaster is the effect it can have on community and regional housing and the ability of people, communities and regions to recover from the damages. Policy decisions involving investments in loss reduction measures and response and recovery are best informed by the integration of scientific and socioeconomic information. Natural scientists develop hazard scenarios for stakeholders and emergency officials to assess the impacts of a particular disaster outcome. Social scientists have found that housing losses and recovery affect individuals in lower socioeconomic status disproportionately. By combining socioeconomic status data from the US Census with an earthquake scenario for southern California, an event-driven conditional distribution of earthquake risk is used to prioritize investment decisions for earthquake hazard mitigation. Simulation of the damages in the scenario showed a statistically significant risk concentration in census tracts with large numbers of residents of lower socioeconomic status living in multi-family housing and mobile homes. An application of the approach is demonstrated in Los Angeles County as a decision criterion in a building retrofit program. The earthquake scenario was used to evaluate the economic benefits of a program for voluntary mitigation and a combined program of voluntary mitigation and regulated mitigation based on socioeconomic status (mandate requiring mitigation in census tracts meeting specific damage and income thresholds). Although the analysis is a hypothetical scenario based on a simulation of a great earthquake, the results and potential outcomes show that a regulated program with a socioeconomic decision criterion would have significant benefits to vulnerable populations.     

The challenge of dating early pleistocene fossil teeth by the combined uranium series–electron spin resonance method: the Venta Micena palaeontological site (Orce,Spain)

The palaeontological site of Venta Micena (Orce, Andalusia, Spain) lies in the eastern sector of the Guadix–Baza basin, one of the best documented areas in Europe for Plio‐Pleistocene biostratigraphy. The combination of biochronological and palaeomagnetic results, combined with the radiometric data obtained for Atapuerca Sima del Elefante, indicated that the Venta Micena stratum was formed between the Jaramillo and Olduvai palaeomagnetic events, most likely between 1.22 and 1.77 Ma. Five fossil teeth from two outcrops (sites A and B) were selected to assess the potential of combined uranium series–electron spin resonance (US‐ESR) dating of Early Pleistocene sites. Although the US‐ESR results of the first outcrop showed a large scatter between the three teeth, the mean age of 1.37 ± 0.24 Ma can be considered a reasonable age estimate for Venta Micena. The mean ESR age of 0.62 ± 0.03 Ma obtained for site B seems to be a severe underestimation when compared with the independent age control. This underestimation is attributed to a relative recent U‐mobilization event that led to some U‐leaching. The results show that any ESR age calculations of old samples are extremely sensitive to variations in the measured ²³⁰Th/²³⁴U ratios in dental tissues. Although the results demonstrate that ESR can in principle be applied to Early Pleistocene sites, they also reveal the complexity of dating such old teeth. It is necessary to continue research in several directions, such as study of the behaviour of ESR signals in old teeth and understanding recent U‐mobilization processes, to improve the reliability of the combined US‐ESR dating method applied to Early Pleistocene times, a period for which the number of available numerical dating techniques is very limited. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geological controls on submarine groundwater discharge in Long Bay,South Carolina (USA)

A combination of geophysical methods including continuous electrical resistivity and high-resolution Chirp sub-bottom profiling were utilized to characterize geologic controls on pore fluid salinity in the nearshore of Long Bay, SC. Resistivity values ranged from less than 1 Ω m to greater than 40 Ω m throughout the bay. Areas of elevated electrical resistivity suggest the influence of relatively fresher water on pore water composition. Geophysical evidence alone does not eliminate all ambiguity associated with lithological and porosity variations that may also contribute to electrical structure of shallow marine sediments. The anomalous field is of sufficient magnitude that lithological variation alone does not control the spatial distribution of elevated electrical resistivity zones. Geographical distribution of electrical anomalies and structures interpreted from nearby sub-bottom profiles indicates abrupt changes in shallow geologic units control preferential pathways for discharge of fresh water into the marine environment. Shore parallel resistivity profiles show dramatic decreases in magnitude with increasing distance from shore, suggesting a significant portion of the terrestrially driven fresh SGD in Long Bay is occurring via the surficial aquifer within a few hundred meters of shore.     

Observations of the evolution of the aerosol, cloud and boundary‐layer characteristics during the 1st ACE‐2 Lagrangian experiment

During the 1st Lagrangian experiment of the North Atlantic Regional Aerosol Characterisation Experiment (ACE‐2), a parcel of air was tagged by releasing a smart, constant level balloon into it from the Research Vessel Vodyanitskiy . The Meteorological Research Flight's C‐130 aircraft then followed this parcel over a period of 30 h characterising the marine boundary layer (MBL), the cloud and the physical and chemical aerosol evolution. The air mass had originated over the northern North Atlantic and thus was clean and had low aerosol concentrations. At the beginning of the experiment the MBL was over 1500 m deep and made up of a surface mixed layer (SML) underlying a layer containing cloud beneath a subsidence inversion. Subsidence in the free troposphere caused the depth of the MBL to almost halve during the experiment and, after 26 h, the MBL became well mixed throughout its whole depth. Salt particle mass in the MBL increased as the surface wind speed increased from 8 m s⁻¹ to 16 m s⁻¹ and the accumulation mode (0.1μm to 3.0 μm) aerosol concentrations quadrupled from 50 cm⁻³ to 200 cm⁻³. However, at the same time the total condensation nuclei (>3 nm) decreased from over 1000 cm⁻³ to 750 cm⁻³. The changes in the accumulation mode aerosol concentrations had a significant effect on the observed cloud microphysics. Observational evidence suggests that the important processes in controlling the Aitken mode concentration which, dominated the total CN concentration, included, scavenging of interstitial aerosol by cloud droplets, enhanced coagulation of Aitken mode aerosol and accumulation mode aerosol due to the increased sea salt aerosol surface area, and dilution of the MBL by free tropospheric air.     

A record of Lateglacial/Holocene environmental change from a high‐elevation site in the Intermountain West,USA

Records of past vegetation and fire history can be complicated by changes in the depositional environment of a sampling location. However, these changes can alternatively be used as a measure of climate variability. Our study site, ca. 18.0 cal. ka BP record from Little Brooklyn Lake, Wyoming, located near the crest of the Snowy Range, records three moisture states. Initially, the lake was likely a glacier‐fed pond indicated by the presence of Pediastrum algae colonies. Around 13.0 cal. ka BP this pond transitioned to a meadow environment, suggested by the loss of Pediastrum algae colonies and slow sedimentation rates. Meadow conditions were maintained until ca. 5.0 cal. ka BP when Pediastrum algae colony abundance increased,indicating the formation of a shallow lake. From 18.0 to ca. 5.0 cal. ka BP, the pollen record is suggestive of alpine vegetation conditions with relatively high spruce and herbaceous taxa. Low charcoal influx also characterizes the period between 18.0 and 5.0 cal. ka BP. After 5.0 cal. ka BP, the coincidence of the formation of shallow lake and pollen data, indicating a shift to a spruce and fir forest, suggests an increase in effective moisture. Fire remained rare in this basin over the entire record, however, once the lake established sedimentation rates and charcoal influx increased. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

New 1982 — 1990 photometry of λ Andromedae and its 11-year cycle

We present photoelectric photometry of λ And never before published, obtained between February 1982 and December 1990 at 29 different observatories. Then we combine it with all other photometry available to us (previously published, contained in the I.A.U. Commission 27 Archives, and obtained with the Vanderbilt 16-inch automatic telescope but not yet published), to yield a 14.8-year data base. Analysis reveals a long-term cycle in mean brightness, with a full range of 0^m.15 and a period of 11.4 ± 0.4 years. Because most of our new photometry was concentrated in the 1983-84 observing season, we analyze that one well-defined light curve with a two-spot model. Spot A keeps a 0^m.04 amplitude throughout four rotation cycles whereas the amplitude of spot B diminishes from 0^m.09 down almost to 0^m.03. The spot rotation periods were 55^d.9 ± 0^d.6 and 520^d.8 ± 1^d.0, respectively.     

Prospects for the GLAS Rayleigh laser beacon on the 4.2-m WHT

The scientific exploitation of adaptive optics (AO) with natural guide stars is severely constrained by the limited presence of bright guide stars for wavefront sensing. Use of a laser beam as an alternative means to provide a source for wavefront sensing has the potential of drastically improving the sky coverage for AO. For this reason at the 4.2-m William Herschel Telescope a project was started to develop a Rayleigh laser beacon to work together with the existing NAOMI adaptive optics instrumentation and the OASIS integral field spectrograph. This paper presents the rationale for this development, highlights some of the technical aspects, and gives some expected performance measures.     

Peat porewater chloride concentration profiles in the Everglades during wet/dry cycles from January 1996 to June 1998: field measurements and theoretical analysis

Water quality is a key aspect of the Everglades Restoration Project, the largest water reclamation and ecosystem management project proposed in the United States. Movement of nutrients and contaminants to and from Everglades peat porewater could have important consequences for Everglades water quality and ecosystem restoration activities. In a study of Everglades porewater, we observed complex, seasonally variable peat porewater chloride concentration profiles at several locations. Analyses and interpretation of these changing peat porewater chloride concentration profiles identifies processes controlling conservative solute movement at the peat–surface water interface, that is, solutes whose transport is minimally affected by chemical and biological reactions. We examine, with an advection–diffusion model, how alternating wet and dry climatic conditions in the Florida Everglades mediate movement of chloride between peat porewater and marsh surface water. Changing surface water–chloride concentrations alter gradients at the interface between peat and overlying water and hence alter chloride flux across that interface. Surface water chloride concentrations at two frequently monitored sites vary with marsh water depth, and a transfer function was developed to describe daily marsh surface water chloride concentration as a function of marsh water depth. Model results demonstrate that porewater chloride concentrations are driven by changing surface water chloride concentrations, and a sensitivity analysis suggests that inclusion of advective transport in the model improves the agreement between the calculated and the observed chloride concentration profiles. Published in 2007 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling the effects of land‐use change on water and salt delivery from a catchment affected by dryland salinity in south‐east Australia

A comprehensive framework for the assessment of water and salt balance for large catchments affected by dryland salinity is applied to the Boorowa River catchment (1550 km²), located in south‐eastern Australia. The framework comprised two models, each focusing on a different aspect and operating on a different scale. A quasi‐physical semi‐distributed model CATSALT was used to estimate runoff and salt fluxes from different source areas within the catchment. The effects of land use, climate, topography, soils and geology are included. A groundwater model FLOWTUBE was used to estimate the long‐term effects of land‐use change on groundwater discharge. Unlike conventional salinity studies that focus on groundwater alone, this study makes use of a new approach to explore surface and groundwater interactions with salt stores and the stream. Land‐use change scenarios based on increased perennial pasture and tree‐cover content of the vegetation, aimed at high leakage and saline discharge areas, are investigated. Likely downstream impacts of the reduction in flow and salt export are estimated. The water balance model was able to simulate both the daily observed stream flow and salt load at the catchment outlet for high and low flow conditions satisfactorily. Mean leakage rate of about 23·2 mm year^?1 under current land use for the Boorowa catchment was estimated. The corresponding mean runoff and salt export from the catchment were 89 382 ML year^?1 and 38 938 t year^?1, respectively. Investigation of various land‐use change scenarios indicates that changing annual pastures and cropping areas to perennial pastures is not likely to result in substantial improvement of water quality in the Boorowa River. A land‐use change of about 20% tree‐cover, specifically targeting high recharge and the saline discharge areas, would be needed to decrease stream salinity by 150 µS cm^?1 from its current level. Stream salinity reductions of about 20 µS cm^?1 in the main Lachlan River downstream of the confluence of the Boorowa River is predicted. The FLOWTUBE modelling within the Boorowa River catchment indicated that discharge areas under increased recharge conditions could re‐equilibrate in around 20 years for the catchment, and around 15 years for individual hillslopes. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.