Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts,adaptation and vulnerability research

This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social–environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance.     

Changes to the drivers of fire weather with a warming climate – a case study of southeast Tasmania

Projected changes to the global climate system have great implications for the incidence of large infrequent fires in many regions. Here we examine the synoptic-scale and local-scale influences on the incidence of extreme fire weather days and consider projections of the large-scale mean climate to explore future fire weather projections. We focus on a case study region with periodic extreme fire dangers; southeast Tasmania, Australia. We compare the performance of a dynamically downscaled regional climate model with Global Climate Model outputs as a tool for examining the local-scale influences while accounting for high regional variability. Many of the worst fires in Tasmania and the southeast Australian region are associated with deep cold fronts and strong prefrontal winds. The downscaled simulations reproduce this synoptic type with greater fidelity than a typical global climate model. The incidence of systems in this category is projected to increase through the century under a high emission scenario, driven mainly by an increase in the temperature of air masses, with little change in the strength of the systems. The regional climate model projected increase in frequency is smaller than for the global climate models used as input, with a large model range and natural variability. We also demonstrate how a blocking Foehn effect and topographic channelling contributed to the extreme conditions during an extreme fire weather day in Tasmania in January 2013. Effects such as these are likely to contribute to high fire danger throughout the century. Regional climate models are useful tools that enable various meteorological drivers of fire danger to be considered in projections of future fire danger.     

The Water Framework Directive: Can more information be extracted from groundwater data? A case study of Seewinkel,Burgenland, eastern Austria

Water protection is one of the most important goals in environmental protection. The Clean Water Act in the USA and the Water Framework Directive (WFD) in Europe are the legal frameworks to facilitate the achievement of this goal. The question is raised of whether more information can be extracted from WFD-related groundwater data. To answer it, a methodology has been developed that is easy to use and could be implemented into official practice. A case study is presented in which the groundwater data of a sodic area in Austria (Seewinkel) is assessed. Eighteen parameters in groundwater sampled from 23 wells (1991–2011) were analyzed. With basic statistics, trend-, cluster-, Wilks’ λ and spatial sampling density analysis, local phosphorus and boron phenomena were described, along with the determining role of sulphate, groundwater flow, and the oxygen gradient in the area. As a final step, the spatial sampling density was determined. Regarding the current set of parameters, all the sampling sites are necessary and only in the case of certain parameters (Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, K⁺, NO₃ ^?, pH) could one sampling site be abandoned. The methodology applied brings a new perspective to exploring groundwater data collected according to the requirements of the WFD.     

Cloud computing and virtualization within the regional climate model and evaluation system

The Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES) facilitates the rapid, flexible inclusion of NASA observations into climate model evaluations. RCMES provides two fundamental components. A database (RCMED) is a scalable point-oriented cloud database used to elastically store remote sensing observations and to make them available using a space time query interface. The analysis toolkit (RCMET) is a Python-based toolkit that can be delivered as a cloud virtual machine, or as an installer package deployed using Python Buildout to users in order to allow for temporal and spatial regridding, metrics calculation (RMSE, bias, PDFs, etc.) and end-user visualization. RCMET is available to users in an “offline”, lone scientist mode based on a virtual machine dynamically constructed with model outputs and observations to evaluate; or on an institution’s computational cluster seated close to the observations and model outputs. We have leveraged RCMES within the content of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project, working with the University of Cape Town and other institutions to compare the model output to NASA remote sensing data; in addition we are also working with the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). In this paper we explain the contribution of cloud computing to RCMES’s specifically describing studies of various cloud databases we evaluated for RCMED, and virtualization toolkits for RCMET, and their potential strengths in delivering user-created dynamic regional climate model evaluation virtual machines for our users.     

Exploring the effects of data quality,data worth,and redundancy of CO2 gas pressure and saturation data on reservoir characterization through PEST inversion

This study examined the impacts of reservoir properties on carbon dioxide (CO₂) migration after subsurface injection and evaluated the possibility of characterizing reservoir properties using CO₂ monitoring data such as spatial–temporal distributions of gas pressure, which can be reasonably monitored in practice. The injection reservoir was assumed to be located 1,400–1,500 m below the ground surface such that CO₂ remained in the supercritical state. The reservoir was assumed to contain layers with alternating conductive and resistive properties, which is analogous to actual geological formations such as the Mount Simon Sandstone unit. The CO₂ injection simulation used a cylindrical grid setting in which the injection well was situated at the center of the domain, which extended out 8,000 m from the injection well. The CO₂ migration was simulated using the latest version of the simulator, subsurface transport over multiple phases (the water–salt–CO₂–energy module), developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. A nonlinear parameter estimation and optimization modeling software package, Parameter ESTimation (PEST), is adopted for automated reservoir parameter estimation. The effects of data quality, data worth, and data redundancy were explored regarding the detectability of reservoir parameters using gas pressure monitoring data, by comparing PEST inversion results using data with different levels of noises, various numbers of monitoring wells and locations, and different data collection spacing and temporal sampling intervals. This study yielded insight into the use of CO₂ monitoring data for reservoir characterization and how to design the monitoring system to optimize data worth and reduce data redundancy. The feasibility of using CO₂ saturation data for improving reservoir characterization was also discussed.     

Contribution of electrical tomography methods in geotechnical investigations at Mavropigi lignite open pit mine,Northern Greece

In this paper, the application of 2D and 3D electrical resistivity methods in geotechnical investigations is explored through a case study in Northern Greece. These two methods were employed at a lignite surface mining operation where fracture zones and discontinuities have been recently observed close to the pit boundaries. The main aim of the geophysical survey was to estimate the inclination of the contact between the Neogene and Schist/Carbonate formations near the southern limits of the pit, as well as to estimate the thickness of the carbonate rocks on top of the Schist formations to evaluate the stability of the southern slopes. Synthetic data were initially generated to help plan an efficient electrical tomography survey, in a region with complex geology and irregular terrain. Three configurations (Wenner–Schlumberger and dipole–dipole or pole–dipole) proved essential in such conditions and helped improving the resolution of the resistivity section. The sections were then calibrated by boreholes. Finally, the geophysical survey provided invaluable data regarding the geometry of the bedrock and possible faults, which was essential for the slope stability calculations.     

Enrichments of the mantle sources beneath the Southern Volcanic Zone (Andes) by fluids and melts derived from abraded upper continental crust

Mafic basaltic-andesitic volcanic rocks from the Andean Southern Volcanic Zone (SVZ) exhibit a northward increase in crustal components in primitive arc magmas from the Central through the Transitional and Northern SVZ segments. New elemental and Sr–Nd-high-precision Pb isotope data from the Quaternary arc volcanic centres of Maipo (NSVZ) and Infernillo and Laguna del Maule (TSVZ) are argued to reflect mainly their mantle source and its melting. For the C-T-NSVZ, we identify two types of source enrichment: one, represented by Antuco in CSVZ, but also present northward along the arc, was dominated by fluids which enriched a pre-metasomatic South Atlantic depleted MORB mantle type asthenosphere. The second enrichment was by melts having the characteristics of upper continental crust (UCC), distinctly different from Chile trench sediments. We suggest that granitic rocks entered the source mantle by means of subduction erosion in response to the northward increasingly strong coupling of the converging plates. Both types of enrichment had the same Pb isotope composition in the TSVZ with no significant component derived from the subducting oceanic crust. Pb–Sr–Nd isotopes indicate a major crustal compositional change at the southern end of the NSVZ. Modelling suggests addition of around 2 % UCC for Infernillo and 5 % for Maipo.     

A computational approach to Quaternary lake-level reconstruction applied in the central Rocky Mountains,Wyoming, USA

Sediment-based reconstructions of late-Quaternary lake levels provide direct evidence of hydrologic responses to climate change, but many studies only provide approximate lake-elevation curves. Here, we demonstrate a new method for producing quantitative time series of lake elevation based on the facies and elevations of multiple cores collected from a lake's margin. The approach determines the facies represented in each core using diagnostic data, such as sand content, and then compares the results across cores to determine the elevation of the littoral zone over time. By applying the approach computationally, decisions are made systematically and iteratively using different facies classification schemes to evaluate the associated uncertainty. After evaluating our assumptions using ground-penetrating radar (GPR), we quantify past lake-elevation changes, precipitation minus evapotranspiration (Δ_P−ET), and uncertainty in both at Lake of the Woods and Little Windy Hill Pond, Wyoming. The well-correlated (r = 0.802 ± 0.002) reconstructions indicate that water levels at both lakes fell at > 11,300, 8000–5500, and 4700–1600 cal yr BP when Δ_P − ET decreased to − 50 to − 250 mm/yr. Differences between the reconstructions are typically small (10 ± 24 mm/yr since 7000 cal yr BP), and the similarity indicates that our reconstruction method can produce statistically comparable paleohydrologic datasets across networks of sites.     

Factors influencing willingness to comply with HIV/AIDS prevention measures by female college students in Kolkata,West Bengal,India

With a 2.4 million people living with Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), India is among the countries in the world most vulnerable to the spread of HIV. This study focuses on understanding what makes female college students (ages 18–24) in Kolkata, India willing to comply with HIV/AIDS preventive measures; these students are widely believed to be at low risk of infection with HIV. Through a questionnaire survey, the data used in this study was collected from 232 female students attending five higher education institutes. Multiple regression analysis reveals that religion, household income, perception of whether preventive measures would hamper freedom, and respondents’ perception of the effectiveness of preventive measures all influence the students’ willingness to comply with preventive measures. Based on its findings, the study makes several recommendations to improve HIV/AIDS prevention in Kolkata and West Bengal, India.     

Discrete element modelling of material non‐coaxiality in simple shear flows

We investigate the quasi‐static simple shear flow of a two‐dimensional assembly of cohesionless particles using discrete element method (DEM) simulations. We focus on the unsteady flow regime where the solid would experience significant evolution of stresses, mobilised shear strength and dilation. We construct the DEM model using a discretised‐wall confined granular cell where the apparent boundary is allowed to dilate or contract synchronously with the confined solid. A rather uniform simple shear field is achieved across the whole assembly, which benefits rheological studies in generalising constitutive laws for continuum methods. We examine two aspects of the simple shear behaviour: macroscopic stress and strain rate evolution, particularly the non‐coaxiality between the principal directions of the two; and micromechanics such as evolution of fabric. For an initially anisotropic specimen sheared under constant normal pressure, the direction of principal stress rotates towards that of the principal strain rate, gradually reducing the degree of non‐coaxiality from about 45° to fluctuating around 0°. The rate in approaching coaxiality is slower in samples with larger initial porosity, stress ratio and mean stress. Generally, a faster rate in approaching coaxiality in simple shear is observed in a more dilatant sample, which often shows a larger degree of mobilised fabric anisotropy, suggesting the possible important role of instantaneous internal friction angle. The evolution of principal fabric direction resembles that of the principal stress direction. © 2013 The Authors. International Journal for Numerical and Analytical Methods in Geomechanics published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.