Can marine fisheries and aquaculture meet fish demand from a growing human population in a changing climate?

Expansion in the world's human population and economic development will increase future demand for fish products. As global fisheries yield is constrained by ecosystems productivity and management effectiveness, per capita fish consumption can only be maintained or increased if aquaculture makes an increasing contribution to the volume and stability of global fish supplies. Here, we use predictions of changes in global and regional climate (according to IPCC emissions scenario A1B), marine ecosystem and fisheries production estimates from high resolution regional models, human population size estimates from United Nations prospects, fishmeal and oil price estimations, and projections of the technological development in aquaculture feed technology, to investigate the feasibility of sustaining current and increased per capita fish consumption rates in 2050. We conclude that meeting current and larger consumption rates is feasible, despite a growing population and the impacts of climate change on potential fisheries production, but only if fish resources are managed sustainably and the animal feeds industry reduces its reliance on wild fish. Ineffective fisheries management and rising fishmeal prices driven by greater demand could, however, compromise future aquaculture production and the availability of fish products.     

Regional modelling of permafrost thicknesses over the past 130 ka: implications for permafrost development in Great Britain

The greatest thicknesses of permafrost in Great Britain most likely occurred during the last glacial–interglacial cycle, as this is when some of the coldest conditions occurred during the last 1 000 000 years. The regional development of permafrost across Great Britain during the last glacial–interglacial cycle was modelled from a ground surface temperature history based on mean annual temperatures and the presence of glacier ice. To quantify the growth and decay of permafrost, modelling was undertaken at six locations across Great Britain that represent upland glaciated, lowland glaciated, upland unglaciated and lowland unglaciated conditions. Maximum predicted permafrost depths derived in this academic study range between several tens of metres to over 100 m depending upon various factors including elevation, glacier ice cover, geothermal heat flux and air temperature. In general, the greatest maximum permafrost thicknesses occur at upland glaciated locations, with minimum thickness at lowland sites. Current direct geological evidence for permafrost is from surface or shallow processes, mainly associated with the active layer. Further research is recommended to identify the imprint of freeze/thaw conditions in permanently frozen porous rocks from beneath the active layer.     

Temporal patterns and controls on runoff magnitude and solution chemistry of urban catchments in the semiarid southwestern United States

Urban expansion and the scarcity of water supplies in arid and semiarid regions have increased the importance of urban runoff to localized water resources. However, urban catchment responses to precipitation are poorly understood in semiarid regions where intense rainfall often results in large runoff events during the short summer monsoon season. To evaluate how urban runoff quantity and quality respond to rainfall magnitude and timing, we collected stream stage data and runoff samples throughout the 2007 and 2008 summer monsoons from four ephemeral drainages in Tucson, Arizona. Antecedent rainfall explained 20% to 30% of discharge (mm) and runoff ratio in the least impervious (22%) catchment but was not statistically related to hydrologic responses at more impervious sites. Regression models indicated that rainfall depth, imperviousness and their combined effect control discharge and runoff ratios (p < 0.01, r² = 0.91 and 0.75, respectively). In contrast, runoff quality did not vary with imperviousness or catchment size. Rainfall depth and duration, time since antecedent rainfall and event and cumulative discharge controlled runoff hydrochemistry and resulted in five specific solute response patterns: (i) strong event and seasonal solute mobilization (solute flush), (ii) event chemostasis and strong seasonal flush, (iii) event chemostasis and weak seasonal flush, (iv) event and seasonal chemostasis and (v) late seasonal flush. Our results indicate that hydrologic responses of semiarid catchments are controlled by rainfall partitioning at the event scale, whereas wetting magnitude, frequency and timing alter solute stores readily available for transport and control temporal runoff quality. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Passive microwave remote sensing of the historic February 2010 snowstorms in the Middle Atlantic region of the USA

The snowfall in the Baltimore/Washington metropolitan area during the winter of 2009/2010 was unprecedented and caused serious snow‐related disruptions. In February 2010, snowfall totals approached 2 m, and because maximum temperatures were consistently below normal, snow remained on the ground the entire month. One of the biggest contributing factors to the unusually severe winter weather in 2009/2010, throughout much of the middle latitudes, was the Arctic Oscillation. Unusually high pressure at high latitudes and low pressure at middle latitudes forced a persistent exchange of mass from north to south. In this investigation, a concerted effort was made to link remotely sensed falling snow observations to remotely sensed snow cover and snowpack observations in the Baltimore/Washington area. Specifically, the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer onboard the Aqua satellite was used to assess snow water equivalent, and the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit‐B and Microwave Humidity Sounder were employed to detect falling snow. Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer passive microwave signatures in this study are related to both snow on the ground and surface ice layers. In regard to falling snow, signatures indicative of snowfall can be observed in high frequency brightness temperatures of Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit‐B and Microwave Humidity Sounder. Indeed, retrievals show an increase in snow water equivalent after the detection of falling snow. Yet, this work also shows that falling snow intensity and/or the presence of liquid water clouds impacts the ability to reliably detect snow water equivalent. Moreover, changes in the condition of the snowpack, especially in the surface features, negatively affect retrieval performance. Copyright © 2011. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

Response of base-isolated buildings to wind loading

The response of base-isolated buildings to gusting wind is analysed theoretically based on experimental data obtained in a boundary layer wind tunnel. A comparison is made with the response evaluated using existing codes. A special procedure, similar to that of current codes, for computing the alongwind and torsional responses of base-isolated buildings is presented.     

Tropical weathering control of Ni, Cu, Co, and platinum group element distributions at the O'Toole Ni-Cu sulphide deposit, Minas Gerais, Brazil

The O'Toole nickel sulphide deposit is located in the Southern Plateau morphological and structural province of Minas Gerais, which has a humid tropical climate characterized by a mean temperature of 19°C and rainfall of 1600 mm. The primary ore reserve is 5.44 million tonnes at 2.72% Ni, 0.45% Cu, 0.06% Co, and 1.3 ppm combined platinum-group elements. Tropical weathering of the vertically dipping orebody has created gossans at the surface, an oxidized zone to a depth of about 20 m, and a zone of transition above fresh ore to a depth of up to 70 m. The weathering profile is similar mineralogically to the profiles at the Kambalda, Mt. Windarra, and Agnew Ni sulphide deposits in Western Australia, but differs in the depth extents of its mineralogically distinctive zones. These zones exhibit geochemically distinctive enrichments and depletions of various elements in this environment based on mass balance calculations and on the relative immobility of iridium. The work presented characterizes the geochemical behavior of Ni, Cu, Co, and platinum-group elements in the weathering of the O'Toole deposit.