Seasonal predictability of ENSO teleconnections: the role of the remote ocean response

In this modelling study, the teleconnections of ENSO are studied using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), HadAM3. The influence of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) remote from the tropical Pacific but teleconnected with ENSO is investigated. Composite cycles of El Niño and La Niña SSTs are created and imposed on HadAM3. These SSTs are imposed in different areas, with climatological SSTs elsewhere, in order to find the influences of SSTs in different regions. It is found that most of the reproducible response to ENSO is forced directly from the tropical Pacific before the peak of the event. However, during the peak and decay of ENSO, remote SSTs become increasingly influential throughout the tropics (at the 98% significance level). This could lead to extended ENSO-related predictability due to the memory of the remote oceans. The Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent SSTs are found to be particularly influential. Indian Ocean SSTAs dampen the teleconnections from the tropical Pacific and force the atmosphere above the tropical Atlantic. More generally, when a tropical SSTA is imposed, atmospheric anomalies are forced locally with anomalies of the opposite sign to the west. Some of the reproducible response to ENSO in the tropical Atlantic is forced, not directly from the tropical Pacific but from the Indian ocean, which in turn is forced by the tropical Pacific. Subsequently, delayed SSTAs in the tropical Atlantic damp the local response and force the atmosphere above the tropical Pacific in the opposite manner.     

Triggering of El Niño by westerly wind events in a coupled general circulation model

Two ten-members ensemble experiments using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model are performed to study the dynamical response to a strong westerly wind event (WWE) when the tropical Pacific has initial conditions favourable to the development of a warm event. In the reference ensemble (CREF), no wind perturbation is introduced, whereas a strong westerly wind event anomaly is introduced in boreal winter over the western Pacific in the perturbed ensemble (CWWE). Our results demonstrate that an intense WWE is capable of establishing the conditions under which a strong El Niño event can occur. First, it generates a strong downwelling Kelvin wave that generates a positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the central-eastern Pacific amplified through a coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction. This anomaly can be as large as 2.5°C 60 days after the WWE. Secondly, this WWE also initiates an eastward displacement of the warm-pool that promotes the occurrence of subsequent WWEs in the following months. These events reinforce the initial warming through the generation of additional Kelvin waves and generate intense surface jets at the eastern edge of the warm-pool that act to further shift warm waters eastward. The use of a ten-members ensemble however reveals substantial differences in the coupled response to a WWE. Whereas four members of CWWE ensemble develop into intense El Niño warming as described above, four others display a moderate warming and two remains in neutral conditions. This diversity between the members appears to be due to the internal atmospheric variability during and following the inserted WWE. In the four moderate warm cases, the warm-pool is initially shifted eastward following the inserted WWE, but the subsequent weak WWE activity (when compared to the strong warming cases) prevents to further shift the warm-pool eastwards. The seasonal strengthening of trade winds in June–July can therefore act to shift warm waters back into the western Pacific, reducing the central-eastern Pacific warming. This strong sensitivity of the coupled response to WWEs may therefore limit the predictability of El Niño events, as the high frequency wind variability over the warm pool region remains largely unpredictable even at short time lead.     

Response of the overturning circulation to high-latitude fresh-water perturbations in the North Atlantic

Studies have suggested that sea-ice cover east and west of Greenland fluctuates out-of phase as a part of the Atlantic decadal climate variability, and greater changes are possible under global warming conditions. In this study, the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) to the distribution of surface fresh-water flux is explored using a global isopycnal ocean model. An Arctic ice related fresh-water flux of 0.1 Sv entering the Nordic Seas is shown to reduce the maximum overturning by 1 to 2 Sv (10⁶ m³ s^–1). A further decrease of 3 to 5 Sv in the MOC is observed when the fresh-water flux is shifted from the Fram Strait to the southern Baffin Bay area. Surprisingly, the salinity in much of the upper Nordic Seas actually increases when the Arctic fresh-water source is the strongest there, as a result of enhanced global overturning. It reflects the great influence of Labrador Sea convection on this models MOC. By applying a weaker surface fresh-water transport perturbation (0.02 Sv) on the Baffin Bay area and therefore perturbing the Labrador Sea Water (LSW) formation, we have also investigated the interaction between the overflows across the Greenland–Scotland Ridge and the LSW and find that, with the same surface forcing conditions in the Nordic Seas, volume transport of the overflows weakens when the LSW formation intensifies.     

Community preparedness for lava flows from Mauna Loa and Hualālai volcanoes,Kona, Hawai‘i

Lava flows from Mauna Loa and Huallai volcanoes are a major volcanic hazard that could impact the western portion of the island of Hawaii (e.g., Kona). The most recent eruptions of these two volcanoes to affect Kona occurred in a.d. 1950 and ca. 1800, respectively. In contrast, in eastern Hawaii, eruptions of neighboring Klauea volcano have occurred frequently since 1955, and therefore have been the focus for hazard mitigation. Official preparedness and response measures are therefore modeled on typical eruptions of Klauea.The combinations of short-lived precursory activity (e.g., volcanic tremor) at Mauna Loa, the potential for fast-moving lava flows, and the proximity of Kona communities to potential vents represent significant emergency management concerns in Kona. Less is known about past eruptions of Huallai, but similar concerns exist. Future lava flows present an increased threat to personal safety because of the short times that may be available for responding.Mitigation must address not only the specific characteristics of volcanic hazards in Kona, but also the manner in which the hazards relate to the communities likely to be affected. This paper describes the first steps in developing effective mitigation plans: measuring the current state of peoples knowledge of eruption parameters and the implications for their safety. We present results of a questionnaire survey administered to 462 high school students and adults in Kona. The rationale for this study was the long lapsed time since the last Kona eruption, and the high population growth and expansion of infrastructure over this time interval. Anticipated future growth in social and economic infrastructure in this area provides additional justification for this work.The residents of Kona have received little or no specific information about how to react to future volcanic eruptions or warnings, and short-term preparedness levels are low. Respondents appear uncertain about how to respond to threatening lava flows and overestimate the minimum time available to react, suggesting that personal risk levels are unnecessarily high. A successful volcanic warning plan in Kona must be tailored to meet the unique situation there.     

Evolution of a complex isolated dome system,Cerro Pizarro,central México

Cerro Pizarro is an isolated rhyolitic dome in the intermontane Serdán-Oriental basin, located in the eastern Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. Cerro Pizarro erupted ~1.1 km³ of magma at about 220 ka. Activity of Cerro Pizarro started with vent-clearing explosions at some depth; the resultant deposits contain clasts of local basement rocks, including Cretaceous limestone, ~0.46-Ma welded tuff, and basaltic lava. Subsequent explosive eruptions during earliest dome growth produced an alternating sequence of surge and fallout layers from an inferred small dome. As the dome grew both vertically and laterally, it developed an external glassy carapace due to rapid chilling. Instability of the dome during emplacement caused the partial gravitational collapse of its flanks producing various block-and-ash-flow deposits. After a brief period of repose, re-injection of magma caused formation of a cryptodome with pronounced deformation of the vitrophyric dome and the underlying units to orientations as steep as near vertical. This stage began apparently as a gas-poor eruption and no explosive phases accompanied the emplacement of the cryptodome. Soon after emplacement of the cryptodome, however, the western flank of the edifice catastrophically collapsed, causing a debris avalanche. A hiatus in eruptive activity was marked by erosion of the cone and emplacement of ignimbrite derived from a caldera to the north of Cerro Pizarro. The final growth of the dome growth produced its present shape; this growth was accompanied by multiple eruptions producing surge and fallout deposits that mantle the topography around Cerro Pizarro. The evolution of the Cerro Pizarro dome holds aspects in common with classic dome models and with larger stratovolcano systems. We suggest that models that predict a simple evolution for domes fail to account for possibilities in evolutionary paths. Specifically, the formation of a cryptodome in the early stages of dome formation may be far more common than generally recognized. Likewise, sector collapse of a dome, although apparently rare, is a potential hazard that must be recognized and for which planning must be done.Editorial responsibility: J. Gilbert     

Geometry and growth of sill complexes: insights using 3D seismic from the North Rockall Trough

Doleritic sill complexes, which are an important component of volcanic continental margins, can be imaged using 3D seismic reflection data. This allows unprecedented access to the complete 3D geometry of the bodies and an opportunity to test classic sill emplacement models. The doleritic sills associated with basaltic volcanism in the North Rockall Trough occur in two forms. Radially symmetrical sill complexes consist of a saucer-like inner sill at the base with an arcuate inclined sheet connecting it to a gently inclined, commonly ragged, outer rim. Bilaterally symmetrical sill complexes are sourced by magma diverted from a magma conduit feeding an overlying volcano. With an elongate, concave upwards, trough-like geometry bilaterally symmetrical sills climb away from the magma source from which they originate. Both sill complex types can appear as isolated bodies but commonly occur in close proximity and consequently merge, producing hybrid sill complexes. Radial sill complexes consist of a series of radiating primary flow units. With dimensions up to 3 km, each primary flow unit rises from the inner saucer and is fed by primary magma tube. Primary flow units contain secondary flow units with dimensions up to 2 km, each being fed by a secondary magma tube branching from the primary magma tube. Secondary flow units in turn are composed of 100-m scale tertiary flow units. A similar branching hierarchy of flow units can also be seen in bilaterally symmetrical sill complexes, with their internal architecture resembling an enlarged version of a primary flow unit from a radial sill complex. This branching flow pattern, as well as the interaction between flow units of varying orders, provides new insights into the origin of the structures commonly seen within sill complexes and the hybrid sill bodies produced by their merger. The data demonstrate that each radially symmetrical sill complex is independently fed from a source located beneath the centre of the inner saucer, grows by climbing from the centre outwards and that peripheral dyking from the upper surface is a common feature. These features suggest a laccolith emplacement style involving peripheral fracturing and dyking during inner saucer growth and thickening. The branching hierarchy of flow units within bilaterally symmetrical sill complexes is broadly similar to that of primary flow units within a radially symmetrical sill complex, suggesting that the general features of the laccolith emplacement model also apply.Editorial responsibility: J. Stix     

Summary of recent volcanic activity

Information included in this summary is based on more detailed reports published in the Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network, v. 29, no. 4, April 2004 (on the Internet at ). Edited by scientists at the Smithsonian, this Bulletin includes reports provided by a worldwide network of correspondents. The reports contain the names and contact information for all sources. Please note that these reports are preliminary and subject to change as events are studied in more detail. The Global Volcanism Program welcomes further reports of current volcanism, seismic unrest, monitoring data, and field observations.     

An Upper Pliocene coarse pumice breccia generated by a shallow submarine explosive eruption,Milos, Greece

The Filakopi Pumice Breccia (FPB) is a very well exposed, Pliocene volcaniclastic unit on Milos, Greece, and has a minimum bulk volume of 1 km³. It consists of three main units: (A) basal lithic breccia (4–8 m) mainly composed of angular to subangular, andesitic and dacitic clasts up to 2.6 m in diameter; (B) very thickly bedded, poorly sorted pumice breccia (16–17 m); and (C) very thick, reversely graded, grain-supported, coarse pumice breccia (6.5–20 m), at the top. The depositional setting is well constrained as shallow marine (up to a few hundred metres) by overlying fossiliferous and bioturbated mudstone. This large volume of fine pumice clasts is interpreted to be the product of an explosive eruption from a submarine vent because: (1) pumice clasts are the dominant component; (2) the coarse pumice clasts (>64 mm) have complete quenched margins; (3) very large (>1 m) pumice clasts are common; (4) overall, the formation shows good hydraulic sorting; and (5) a significant volume of ash was deposited together with the coarsest pyroclasts.The bed forms in units A and B suggest deposition from lithic-rich and pumiceous, respectively, submarine gravity currents. In unit C, the coarse (up to 6.5 m) pumice clasts are set in matrix that grades upwards from diffusely stratified, fine (1–2 cm) pumice clasts at the base to laminated shard rich mud at the top. The coarse pumice clasts in unit C were settled from suspension and the framework was progressively infilled by fine pumice clasts from waning traction currents and then by water-settled ash. The FPB displays important features of the products of submarine explosive eruptions that result from the ambient fluid being seawater, rather than volcanic gas or air. In particular, submarine pyroclastic deposits are characterised by the presence of very coarse juvenile pumice clasts, pumice clasts with complete quenched rims, and good hydraulic sorting.Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available for this article if you access the article at . A link in the frame on the left on that page takes you directly to the supplementary material.Editorial responsibility: J. Donelly-Nolan     

Doppler radar sounding of volcanic eruption dynamics at Mount Etna

Besides their common use in atmospheric studies, Doppler radars are promising tools for the active remote sensing of volcanic eruptions but were little applied to this field. We present the observations made with a mid-power UHF Doppler radar (Voldorad) during a 7-h Strombolian eruption at the SE crater of Mount Etna on 11–12 October 1998. Main characteristics of radar echoes are retrieved from analysis of Doppler spectra recorded in the two range gates on either side of the jet axis. From the geometry of the sounding, the contribution of uprising and falling ejecta to each Doppler spectrum can be discriminated. The temporal evolution of total power backscattered by uprising targets is quite similar to the temporal evolution of the volcanic tremor and closely reproduces the overall evolution of the eruption before, during and after its paroxysm. Moreover, during the sharp decrease of eruptive activity following the paroxysm, detailed analysis of video (from camera recording), radar and seismic measurements reveals that radar and video signals start to decrease simultaneously, approximately 2.5 min after the tremor decline. This delay is interpreted as the ascent time through a magma conduit of large gas slugs from a shallow source roughly estimated at about 500 m beneath the SE crater. Detailed analysis of eruptive processes has been also made with Voldorad operating in a high sampling rate mode. Signature of individual outburst is clearly identified on the half part of Doppler spectra corresponding to rising ejecta: temporal variations of the backscattered power exhibit quasi periodic undulations, whereas the maximum velocity measured on each spectrum displays a sharp peak at the onset of each outburst followed by a slow decay with time. Periodicity of power variations (between 3.8 and 5.5 s) is in agreement with the occurrence of explosions visually observed at the SE vent. Maximum vertical velocities of over 160 m s^–1 were measured during the paraoxysmal stage and the renewed activity. Finally, by using a simplified model simulating the radar echoes characteristics, we show that when Voldorad is operating in high sampling rate mode, the power and maximum velocity variations are directly related to the difference in size and velocity of particles crossing the antenna beam.Editorial responsibility: A. Woods     

Sheathfolds in rheomorphic ignimbrites

Structural reappraisal of several classic rheomorphic ignimbrites in Colorado, Idaho, the Canary Islands and Italy has, for the first time, revealed abundant oblique folds, curvilinear folds and sheathfolds which formed during emplacement. Like their equivalents in tectonic shear-zones, the sheathfold axes lie sub-parallel to a pervasive elongation lineation, and appear as eye structures on rock surfaces normal to the transport direction. With the recognition of sheathfolds, ignimbrites previously inferred to have undergone complex rheomorphic deformation histories are re-interpreted as recording a single, progressive deformation event. In some examples, the trends of sheathfolds and related lineations change with height through a single ignimbrite suggesting that rheomorphism did not affect the entire thickness of ignimbrite synchronously. Instead, we infer that in these ignimbrites a thin ductile shear-zone rose gradually through the aggrading agglutinating mass whilst the flow direction varied with time. This suggests that, in some cases, both welding and rheomorphism can be extremely rapid, with ductile strain rates significantly exceeding rates of ignimbrite aggradation.Editorial responsibility: T. Druitt