Dynamical downscaling of future sea level change in the western North Pacific using ROMS

The future regional sea level (RSL) rise in the western North Pacific is investigated by dynamical downscaling with the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) with an eddy-permitting resolution based on three global climate models—MIROC-ESM, CSIRO-Mk3.6.0, and GFDL-CM3—under the highest greenhouse-gas emission scenario. The historical run is forced by the air-sea fluxes calculated from Coordinated Ocean Reference Experiment version 2 (COREv2) data. Three future runs—ROMS-MIROC, ROMS-CSIRO, and ROMS-GFDL—are forced with an atmospheric field constructed by adding the difference between the climate model parameters for the twenty-first and twentieth century to fields in the historical run. In all downscaling, the RSL rise along the eastern coast of Japan is generally half or less of the RSL rise maxima off the eastern coast. The projected regional (total) sea level rises along the Honshu coast during 2081–2100 relative to 1981–2000 are 19–25 (98–104), 6–15 (71–80), and 8–14 (80–86) cm in ROMS-MIROC, ROMS-CSIRO, and ROMS-GFDL, respectively. The discrepancies of the RSL rise along the Honshu coast between the climate models and downscaling are less than 10 cm. The RSL changes in the Kuroshio Extension (KE) region in all downscaling simulations are related to the changes of KE (northward shift or intensification) with climate change.     

New data on the most ancient early quaternary glaciation in Gornyi Altai

The data presented in this work introduce substantial corrections into the Upper Cenozoic stratigraphy and geological history of Gornyi Altai. They provide evidence for the most ancient Early Pleistocene glaciation in this region. This follows from finds of faceted boulders buried in the Bashkaus Formation. Pale-omagnetic investigations revealed in the latter a wide zone of negative polarity corresponding to the Matuyama Chron in the magnetostratigraphic scale and made it possible to correlate the formation with the Lower Pleistocene in the standard stratigraphic scale. It is shown that global cooling at the beginning of the Quaternary Period stimulated development of glaciation on the southern slope of the Kuraiskii Range exceeding in size its present-day scale.     

Identification of hydrochemical facies in the Roswell Artesian Basin,New Mexico (USA), using graphical and statistical methods

Analysis of groundwater chemistry can yield important insights about subsurface conditions, and provide an alternative and complementary method for characterizing basin hydrogeology, especially in areas where hydraulic data are limited. More specifically, hydrochemical facies have been used for decades to help understand basin flow and transport, and a set of facies were developed for the Roswell Artesian Basin (RAB) in a semi-arid part of New Mexico, USA. The RAB is an important agricultural water source, and is an excellent example of a rechargeable artesian system. However, substantial uncertainties about the RAB hydrogeology and groundwater chemistry exist. The RAB was a great opportunity to explore hydrochemcial facies definition. A set of facies, derived from fingerprint diagrams (graphical approach), existed as a basis for testing and for comparison to principal components, factor analysis, and cluster analyses (statistical approaches). Geochemical data from over 300 RAB wells in the central basin were examined. The statistical testing of fingerprint-diagram-based facies was useful in terms of quantitatively evaluating differences between facies, and for understanding potential controls on basin groundwater chemistry. This study suggests the presence of three hydrochemical facies in the shallower part of the RAB (mostly unconfined conditions) and three in the deeper artesian system of the RAB. These facies reflect significant spatial differences in chemistry in the basin that are associated with specific stratigraphic intervals as well as structural features. Substantial chemical variability across faults and within fault blocks was also observed.     

Soil-water dynamics and tree water uptake in the Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico (USA): a stable isotope study

In the southwestern United States, precipitation in the high mountains is a primary source of groundwater recharge. Precipitation patterns, soil properties and vegetation largely control the rate and timing of groundwater recharge. The interactions between climate, soil and mountain vegetation thus have important implications for the groundwater supply. This study took place in the Sacramento Mountains, which is the recharge area for multiple regional aquifers in southern New Mexico. The stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen were used to determine whether infiltration of precipitation is homogeneously distributed in the soil or whether it is partitioned among soil-water ‘compartments’, from which trees extract water for transpiration as a function of the season. The results indicate that “immobile” or “slow” soil water, which is derived primarily from snowmelt, infiltrates soils in a relatively uniform fashion, filling small pores in the shallow soils. “Mobile” or “fast” soil water, which is mostly associated with summer thunderstorms, infiltrates very quickly through macropores and along preferential flow paths, evading evaporative loss. It was found that throughout the entire year, trees principally use immobile water derived from snowmelt mixed to differing degrees with seasonally available mobile-water sources. The replenishment of these different water pools in soils appears to depend on initial soil-water content, the manner in which the water was introduced to the soil (snowmelt versus intense thunderstorms), and the seasonal variability of the precipitation and evapotranspiration. These results have important implications for the effect of climate change on recharge mechanisms in the Sacramento Mountains.     

Numerical evaluation of mean-field homogenisation methods for predicting shale elastic response

Homogenisation techniques have been successfully used to estimate the mechanical response of synthetic composite materials, due to their ability to relate the macroscopic mechanical response to the material microstructure. The adoption of these mean-field techniques in geo-composites such as shales is attractive, partly because of the practical difficulties associated with the experimental characterisation of these highly heterogeneous materials. In this paper, numerical modelling has been undertaken to investigate the applicability of homogenisation methods in predicting the macroscopic, elastic response of clayey rocks. The rocks are considered as two-level composites consisting of a porous clay matrix at the first level and a matrix-inclusion morphology at the second level. The simulated microstructures ranged from a simple system of one inclusion/void embedded in a matrix to complex, random microstructures. The effectiveness and limitations of the different homogenisation schemes were demonstrated through a comparative evaluation of the macroscopic elastic response, illustrating the appropriate schemes for upscaling the microstructure of shales. Based on the numerical simulations and existing experimental observations, a randomly distributed pore system for the micro-structure of porous clay matrix has been proposed which can be used for the subsequent development and validation of shale constitutive models. Finally, the homogenisation techniques were used to predict the experimental measurements of elastic response of shale core samples. The developed methodology is proved to be a valuable tool for verifying the accuracy and performance of the homogenisation techniques.     

Estuarine Habitat and Demographic Factors Affect Juvenile Chinook (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Oncorhynchus tshawytscha</Emphasis>) Growth Variability in a Large Freshwater Tidal Estuary

Estuarine rearing has been shown to enhance within watershed biocomplexity and support growth and survival for juvenile salmon (Oncorhynchus sp.). However, less is known about how growth varies across different types of wetland habitats and what explains this variability in growth. We focused on the estuarine habitat use of Columbia River Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), which are listed under the Endangered Species Act. We employed a generalized linear model (GLM) to test three hypotheses: (1) juvenile Chinook growth was best explained by temporal factors, (2) habitat, or (3) demographic characteristics, such as stock of origin. This study examined estuarine growth rate, incorporating otolith microstructure, individual assignment to stock of origin, GIS habitat mapping, and diet composition along ~130 km of the upper Columbia River estuary. Juvenile Chinook grew on average 0.23 mm/day in the freshwater tidal estuary. When compared to other studies in the basin our growth estimates from the freshwater tidal estuary were similar to estimates in the brackish estuary, but ~4 times slower than those in the plume and upstream reservoirs. However, previous survival studies elucidated a possible tradeoff between growth and survival in the Columbia River basin. Our GLM analysis found that variation in growth was best explained by habitat and an interaction between fork length and month of capture. Juvenile Chinook salmon captured in backwater channel habitats and later in the summer (mid-summer and late summer/fall subyearlings) grew faster than salmon from other habitats and time periods. These findings present a unique example of the complexity of understanding the influences of the many processes that generate variation in growth rate for juvenile anadromous fish inhabiting estuaries.     

Structural and Functional Composition of Benthic Nematode Assemblages During a Natural Recovery Process of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Zostera noltii</Emphasis> Seagrass Beds

In 2008, the stable seagrass beds of the Mira estuary (SW Portugal) disappeared completely; however, during 2009, they have begun to present early symptoms of natural recovery, characterised by a strongly heterogeneous distribution. This study was designed to investigate the spatial and temporal variability patterns of species composition, densities and trophic composition of the benthic nematode assemblages in this early recovery process, at two sampling sites with three stations each and at five sampling occasions. Because of the erratic and highly patchy seagrass recovery and the high environmental similarity of the two sampling sites, we expected within-site variability in nematode assemblages to exceed between-site variability. However, contrary to that expectation, whilst nematode genus composition was broadly similar between sites, nematode densities differed significantly between sites, and this between-site variability exceeded within-site variability. This may be linked to differences in the Zostera recovery patterns between both sites. In addition, no clear temporal patterns of nematode density, trophic composition and diversity were evident. Nematode assemblages generally resembled those of other estuarine muddy intertidal areas, which have a high tolerance of stress conditions.     

Forecasting rock slope failure: how reliable and effective are warning systems?

Warning systems are increasingly applied to reduce damage caused by different magnitudes of rockslides and rockfalls. In an integrated risk-management approach, the optimal risk mitigation strategy is identified by comparing the achieved effectiveness and cost; estimating the reliability of the warning system is the basis for such considerations. Here, we calculate the reliability and effectiveness of the warning system installed in Preonzo prior to a major rockfall in May 2012. “Reliability” is defined as the ability of the warning system to forecast the hazard event and to prevent damage. To be cost-effective, the warning system should forecast an event with a limited number of false alarms to avoid unnecessary costs for intervention measures. The analysis shows that to be reliable, warning systems should be designed as fail-safe constructions. They should incorporate components with low failure probabilities, high redundancy, have low warning thresholds, and additional control systems. In addition, the experts operating the warning system should have limited risk tolerance. In an additional hypothetical probabilistic analysis, we investigate the effect of the risk attitude of the decision makers and of the number of sensors on the probability of detecting the event and initiating a timely evacuation, as well as on the related intervention cost. The analysis demonstrates that quantitative assessments can support the identification of optimal warning system designs and decision criteria.     

Stability analysis of an ancient landslide considering shear strength reduction behavior of slip zone soil

In this paper, the stability of an ancient landslide during the first impounding of a nearby reservoir is investigated through the analyses of the shear strength reduction behavior of slip zone soil. In view of the experimental observations, an empirical strain-dependent soil model is established and is then incorporated in finite element analyses. The numerical analysis results show that the failing sections progressively develop due to the soil strength declines from peak toward residual, and the shear zone propagates within the front slope. It is demonstrated in the numerical results that the toe weighting measure has a significant effect on restraining the shear displacements of the soils and preventing the progressive failure of the landslide. The field observations further confirmed the stability condition of the reinforced landslide.