Can radiative forcing be limited to 2.6 Wm−2 without negative emissions from bioenergy AND CO2 capture and storage?

Combining bioenergy and carbon dioxide (CO₂) capture and storage (CCS) technologies (BECCS) has the potential to remove CO₂ from the atmosphere while producing useful energy. BECCS has played a central role in scenarios that reduce climate forcing to low levels such as 2.6 Wm^?2. In this paper we consider whether BECCS is essential to limiting radiative forcing (RF) to 2.6 Wm^?2 by 2100 using the Global Change Assessment Model, a closely coupled model of biogeophysical and human Earth systems. We show that BECCS can potentially reduce the cost of limiting RF to 2.6 Wm^?2 by 2100 but that a variety of technology combinations that do not include BECCS can also achieve this goal, under appropriate emissions mitigation policies. We note that with appropriate supporting land-use policies terrestrial sequestration could deliver carbon storage ranging from 200 to 700 PgCO₂-equiavalent over the 21st century. We explore substantial delays in participation by some geopolitical regions. We find that the value of BECCS is substantially higher under delay and that delay results in higher transient RF and climate change. However, when major regions postponed mitigation indefinitely, it was impossible to return RF to 2.6 Wm^?2 by 2100. Neither finite land resources nor finite potential geologic storage capacity represented a meaningful technical limit on the ability of BECCS to contribute to emissions mitigation in the numerical experiments reported in this paper.     

Pliocene volcano-tectonics and paleogeography of the Turkana Basin,Kenya and Ethiopia

The distribution of hominin fossil sites in the Turkana Basin, Kenya is intimately linked to the history of the Omo River, which affected the paleogeography and ecology of the basin since the dawn of the Pliocene. We report new geological data concerning the outlet channel of the Omo River between earliest Pliocene and final closure of the Turkana Basin drainage system in the latest Pliocene to earliest Quaternary. Throughout most of the Pliocene the Omo River entered the Turkana Basin from its source in the highlands of Ethiopia and exited the eastern margin of the basin to discharge into the Lamu embayment along the coast of the Indian Ocean. During the earliest Pliocene the river’s outlet was located in the northern part of the basin, where a remnant outlet channel is preserved in basalts that pre-date eruption of the Gombe flood basalt between 4.05 and 3.95 Ma. The outlet channel was faulted down to the west prior to 4.05 Ma, forming a natural dam behind which Lake Lonyumun developed. Lake Lonyumun was drained between 3.95 and 3.9 Ma when a new outlet channel formed north of Loiyangalani in the southeastern margin of the Turkana Basin. That outlet was blocked by Lenderit Basalt lava flows between 2.2 and 2.0 Ma. Faulting that initiated either during or shortly after eruption of the Lenderit Basalt closed the depression that is occupied by modern Lake Turkana to sediment and water.Several large shield volcanoes formed east of the Turkana Basin beginning by 2.5–3.0 Ma, volcanism overlapping in time, but probably migrating eastward from Mount Kulal on the eastern edge of the basin to Mount Marsabit located at the eastern edge of the Chalbi Desert. The mass of the volcanic rocks loaded and depressed the lithosphere, enhancing subsidence in a shallow southeast trending depression that overlay the Cretaceous and Paleogene (?) Anza Rift. Subsidence in this flexural depression guided the course of the Omo River towards the Indian Ocean, and also localized accumulations of lava along the margins of the shield volcanoes. Lava flows at Mount Marsabit extended across the Omo River Valley after 1.8–2.0 Ma based on estimated ages of fossils in lacustrine and terrestrial deposits, and possibly by as early as 2.5 ± 0.3 Ma based on dating of a lava flow. During the enhanced precipitation in latest Pleistocene and earliest Holocene (11–9.5 ka) this flexural depression became the site of Lake Chalbi, which was separated from Lake Turkana by a tectonically controlled drainage divide.     

Optimised Ferrozine Micro‐Method for the Determination of Ferrous and Ferric Iron in Rocks and Minerals

The ferrozine wet chemical method was optimised for the determination of the total iron content and speciation in small geological samples. The ferrozine micro‐method involves dissolution by a mixture of HF and H₂SO₄ followed by spectrophotometric analysis using the complexing agent ferrozine. The method was tested for twenty‐one replicates of eight rock RMs using test portions of 5–14 mg and containing 0.37–5.45 mg total Fe and more than 0.29 mg Fe(II). The optimised ferrozine method was accurate to within 0.23% m/m FeO and 0.34% m/m total Fe, which compares favourably to other wet chemical methods.     

Beyond individual quotas: The role of trust and cooperation in promoting stewardship of five Australian abalone fisheries

Private property rights, such as individual transferable quotas, are thought to encourage fishers to act as resource stewards. To achieve this, however, fishers must be able to cooperate with each other. This paper examines the relationship between trust, cooperation and stewardship in five abalone (Haliotis) fisheries in southeastern Australia. Industry-led resource management initiatives are used as indicators of stewardship, sometimes including substantial sacrifice of catch quota. Higher levels of trust and cooperative capacity enabled greater levels of industry-based resource management in four of the five fisheries. In one case, however, high levels of trust and cooperative capacity did not translate into associated levels of resource management. It is suggested that additional factors, such as perceptions of resource condition, are key determinants of resource stewardship. Private property rights may, therefore, be less important than previously argued.     

A non-hydrostatic algorithm for free-surface ocean modelling

An original implementation of a non-hydrostatic, free-surface algorithm based on a pressure correction method is proposed for ocean modelling. The free surface is implemented through an explicit scheme combined with a mode-spitting method but the depth-averaged velocity and the position of the free surface are updated at each non-hydrostatic iteration. The vertical momentum equation is also integrated up to the surface enabling a natural and accurate treatment of the surface layer. The consistent specification of the numerical schemes provides balanced transfers of potential and kinetic energy. This algorithm is well-suited for implementation as a non-hydrostatic kernel on originally hydrostatic free-surface ocean models such as Symphonie (http://poc.obs-mip.fr/pages/research_topics/modelling/symphonie/symphonie.htm) for which it has originally been developed.Energy balances associated with the propagation of short surface waves and solitary waves are presented for two dedicated well-documented configurations over closed domains. The buoyancy flux, the work rate of the pressure force together with the power of the advective terms are evaluated and discussed for the generation and the propagation of these two types of waves. The dissipation rate is in particular shown to be several orders of magnitude smaller than the work rates of the hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic pressure forces confirming the necessity for the exchanges of energy to be numerically balanced. The algorithm is subsequently applied to the complex generation of non-linear solitary internal waves by surface tides over Georges Bank, in the Gulf of Maine. The generation and the propagation of the observed non-linear and non-hydrostatic features in this region are correctly reproduced.     

Use of Fossil Bryozoans in Sourcing Lithic Artifacts

This study reviews the occurrence and potential of bryozoans within lithic artifacts and also sets out a methodology for their use in sourcing and discusses the advantages and disadvantages of this approach. We present case studies from our own research and from the literature on using bryozoans in sourcing archaeological lithic artifacts. Fossil bryozoans of different ages and clades can be effectively used to determine the material source of lithic artifacts from a variety of prehistoric ages. The case studies included in this report span the stratigraphic range of bryozoans from the Ordovician to the Neogene. The bryozoans came from four different orders: trepostome, fenestrate, cyclostome, and cheilostome. The use of these lithic artifacts ranged back to 25 ka. Although the majority of the fossil bryozoans were incidental in the artifacts, the bryozoans were still useful for determining their original source rock. The improved searchable online paleontologic databases allow for more efficient use of fossil bryozoans to constrain the stratigraphic and paleogeographic distribution of source outcrops. Although generally underutilized in sourcing prehistoric lithic artifacts, it is clear that by analyzing bryozoans, an increased understanding of the lithologic nature of these materials could be gained by the archaeological community.     

Single‐Grain Luminescence Dating of Sediment Surrounding a Possible Late Pleistocene Artifact from the Wenas Creek Mammoth Site,Pacific Northwest,USA

Excavations at the Wenas Creek Mammoth Site yielded mammoth, bison, and two possible artifacts in a single colluvial stratum, with radiocarbon bone dates ∼17 ka. Eight infrared‐stimulated luminescence (IRSL) samples were collected to establish general ages of site strata, returning multi‐grain estimates consistent with stratigraphic integrity and the radiocarbon dates. Four additional IRSL samples were collected to estimate the depositional age of one artifact found in place. These produced a pooled total of 94 single‐grain estimates from near the artifact, 80% averaging 16.8 ± 0.9 ka, and 20% averaging 5.1 ± 0.5 ka. These results could be interpreted to demonstrate pre‐Clovis age artifact deposition consistent with the bone dates, or a mid to late Holocene intrusion into older deposits, possibly by bioturbation. The single‐grain IRSL dates do not provide proof of pre‐Clovis presence beyond reasonable doubt at this site, but do show that this technique is valuable in assessing the stratigraphic integrity needed for any such claim.     

Development of the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for predicting the impact of storms on high-energy,active-margin coasts

The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) applies a predominantly deterministic framework to make detailed predictions (meter scale) of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers). CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications (i.e., nowcasts and multiday forecasts), and future climate scenarios (i.e., sea-level rise + storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm hazards information that may be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings. The prototype system, developed for the California coast, uses the global WAVEWATCH III wave model, the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite altimetry-based global tide model, and atmospheric-forcing data from either the US National Weather Service (operational mode) or Global Climate Models (future climate mode), to determine regional wave and water-level boundary conditions. These physical processes are dynamically downscaled using a series of nested Delft3D-WAVE (SWAN) and Delft3D-FLOW (FLOW) models and linked at the coast to tightly spaced XBeach (eXtreme Beach) cross-shore profile models and a Bayesian probabilistic cliff failure model. Hindcast testing demonstrates that, despite uncertainties in preexisting beach morphology over the ~500 km alongshore extent of the pilot study area, CoSMoS effectively identifies discrete sections of the coast (100s of meters) that are vulnerable to coastal hazards under a range of current and future oceanographic forcing conditions, and is therefore an effective tool for operational and future climate scenario planning.     

Metabolic Responses of Estuarine Microbial Communities to Discharge of Surface Runoff and Groundwater from Contrasting Landscapes

Groundwater discharge is increasingly recognized as a significant source of nutrient input to coastal waters, relative to surface water inputs. There remains limited information, however, on the extent to which nutrients and organic matter from each of these two flowpaths influence the functional responses of coastal microbial communities. As such, this study determined dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and nutrient concentrations of surface water runoff and groundwater from both an urbanized and a relatively pristine forested drainage basin near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, and quantified the changes in production rates and biomass of phytoplankton and bacterioplankton in response to these inputs during two microcosm incubation experiments (August and October, 2011). Rainwater in the urbanized basin that would otherwise enter the groundwater appeared to be largely rerouted into the surface flowpath by impervious surfaces, bypassing ecosystem buffers and filtration mechanisms. Surface runoff from the developed basin was most enriched in nutrients and DOC and yielded the highest production rates of the various source waters upon addition to coastal waters. The metabolic responses of phytoplankton and bacterioplankton were generally well predicted as a function of initial chemical composition of the various source waters, though more so with bacterial production. Primary and bacterial productivities often correlated at reciprocal time points (24-h measurement of one with the 72-h measurement of the other). These results suggest human modification of coastal watersheds enhances the magnitude of dissolved constituents delivered to coastal waters as well as alters their distributions between surface and groundwater flowpaths, with significant implications for microbial community structure and function in coastal receiving waters.     

The impact of nitrogenous and phosphorous nutrients from selected point sources in Kisumu City on River Kisat and Nyalenda Wigwa Stream before their discharge into Winam Gulf,Lake Victoria

Various industrial facilities including a fish-processing factory, a matchbox factory, a flour mill and a landfill, all in Kisumu City in Kenya, were studied and found to discharge significant amounts of NO₂ ^?–N, NO₃ ^?–N, org N, total N and total P into River Kisat and Winam Gulf of Lake Victoria, with  % increases in the mean levels at the outlets of these facilities ranging from 9.6 to 200, 5.9 to 43.5, 9.3 to 96.1, 8.1 to 35.5 and 9.7 to 50.5 %, respectively. The concentrations of NO₂ ^?–N, NO₃ ^?–N, NH₃–N, org N and total N attributable to these facilities increased by 1,509, 51.1, 112.6, 97.5 and 90.6 %, respectively, at the point of entry into Rive Kisat. The Nyalenda Wastewater Stabilization Ponds reduced the mean levels of NO₂ ^?–N, NO₃ ^?–N, org N, total N and T-P by 50, 10.4, 16.6, 7.8 and 30.8 %, respectively, indicating low efficacy of their removal and potential impact on water quality in Lake Victoria. The efficacy of the Kisat wastewater treatment plant was also found to be very low with  % reductions of the analysed nutrients ranging from 2.82 to 41.30 %.