Natural Geological Weighing Lysimeters: Calibration Tools for Satellite and Ground Surface Gravity Monitoring of Subsurface Water-Mass Change

Increased accuracy in measuring temporal variations in the Earth's gravity field allow inprinciple the use of gravity observations to deduce subsurface water-mass changes. This canbe with respect to a small area, or as a larger spatial average of water mass change usinggravity observations from low-altitude satellites, such as the forthcoming GRACE mission.At both scales, there is a need to validate gravity-based estimates against field recordings ofactual subsurface water-mass variations. In practice, this could prove difficult because thespatial integral of all water-storage change components can be subject to considerable fieldmeasurement error. An alternative approach to the validation process is proposed by whichsuitable geological formations are utilized as giant weighing devices to directly measure area-integratedwater-mass changes. The existence of such natural geological weighing lysimetersis demonstrated using observations from a replicated experimental site in New Zealand. Sitesof this type could be used to verify water-storage change estimates derived from sensitiveground surface gravity instrumentation. In addition, geological lysimeters could be used tomake local checks on the accuracy of any estimated regional water-mass time series, whichis proposed for satellite calibration. The land area weighed by a geological lysimeter increaseswith formation depth and it is speculated that recordings made at oil well depth may allowdirect monitoring of subsurface water mass changes at the regional scale.     

Influence of uncertain boundary conditions and model structure on flood inundation predictions

In this study, the GLUE methodology is applied to establish the sensitivity of flood inundation predictions to uncertainty of the upstream boundary condition and bridges within the modelled region. An understanding of such uncertainties is essential to improve flood forecasting and floodplain mapping. The model has been evaluated on a large data set. This paper shows uncertainty of the upstream boundary can have significant impact on the model results, exceeding the importance of model parameter uncertainty in some areas. However, this depends on the hydraulic conditions in the reach e.g. internal boundary conditions and, for example, the amount of backwater within the modelled region. The type of bridge implementation can have local effects, which is strongly influenced by the bridge geometry (in this case the area of the culvert). However, the type of bridge will not merely influence the model performance within the region of the structure, but also other evaluation criteria such as the travel time. This also highlights the difficulties in establishing which parameters have to be more closely examined in order to achieve better fits. In this study no parameter set or model implementation that fulfils all evaluation criteria could be established. We propose four different approaches to this problem: closer investigation of anomalies; introduction of local parameters; increasing the size of acceptable error bounds; and resorting to local model evaluation. Moreover, we show that it can be advantageous to decouple the classification into behavioural and non-behavioural model data/parameter sets from the calculation of uncertainty bounds.     

Incipient weathering rind development on introduced machine‐polished granite discs in an Arctic alpine environment,northern Scandinavia

Weathering rinds, zones of alteration on the exterior surfaces of rock outcrops and coarse unconsolidated surficial debris are widely used by geomorphologists and Quaternary geologists as indicators of the relative age of landforms and landscapes. Additionally they provide unique insights into the earliest stages of rock and mineral weathering, yet the origin of these alteration zones is relatively poorly understood. This lack of understanding applies especially to the initial stages of rind formation. The study reported in this paper has two principal objectives. The first is to use lightly polished granite discs inserted in soil profiles under several different plant communities in an Arctic alpine environment for a period of four or five years to investigate the nature of incipient weathering rind development. The second is to investigate the factors responsible for spatial variability in the nature and rates of rind formation. Incipient weathering rind development on the outer edges of the granite discs is observable and measurable over a period of time as short as four years in the mild Arctic alpine environment of Swedish Lapland. The earliest stages of rind development involve the development of a porous structure consisting of a combination of pits and fractures which have been solutionally enlarged and modified. Solution appears to be preferentially concentrated on the surfaces of feldspars and, to a lesser extent, quartz. In addition, iron oxides are present along grain boundaries and in grain interiors and are interpreted to have been derived from the oxidation of ferromagnesian minerals. Spatial variability in weathering rind development appears to be particularly driven by differences in moisture but is not related to soil pH. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Pits,rifts and slumps: the summit structure of Piton de la Fournaise

A clear model of structures and associated stress fields of a volcano can provide a framework in which to study and monitor activity. We propose a volcano-tectonic model for the dynamics of the summit of Piton de la Fournaise (La Reunion Island, Indian Ocean). The summit contains two main pit crater structures (Dolomieu and Bory), two active rift zones, and a slumping eastern sector, all of which contribute to the actual fracture system. Dolomieu has developed over 100 years by sudden large collapse events and subsequent smaller drops that include terrace formation. Small intra-pit collapse scars and eruptive fissures are located along the southern floor of Dolomieu. The western pit wall of Dolomieu has a superficial inward dipping normal fault boundary connected to a deeper ring fault system. Outside Dolomieu, an oval extension zone containing sub-parallel pit-related fractures extends to a maximum distance of 225 m from the pit. At the summit the main trend for eruptive fissures is N80°, normal to the north–south rift zone. The terraced structure of Dolomieu has been reproduced by analogue models with a roof to width ratio of approximately 1, suggesting an original magma chamber depth of about 1 km. Such a chamber may continue to act as a storage location today. The east flank has a convex–concave profile and is bounded by strike-slip fractures that define a gravity slump. This zone is bound to the north by strike-slip fractures that may delineate a shear zone. The southern reciprocal shear zone is probably marked by an alignment of large scoria cones and is hidden by recent aa lavas. The slump head intersects Dolomieu pit and may slide on a hydrothermally altered layer known to be located at a depth of around 300 m. Our model has the summit activity controlled by the pit crater collapse structure, not the rifts. The rifts become important on the mid-flanks of the cone, away from pit-related fractures. On the east flank the superficial structures are controlled by the slump. We suggest that during pit subsidence intra-pit eruptions may occur. During tumescence, however, the pit system may become blocked and a flank eruption is more likely. Intrusions along the rift may cause deformation that subsequently increases the slump’s potential to deform. Conversely, slumping may influence the east flank stress distribution and locally control intrusion direction. These predictions can be tested with monitoring data to validate the model and, eventually, improve monitoring.     

东昆仑南部晚新生代逆冲推覆构造系统

通过对东大滩—东温泉地区的路线地质观测与构造填图,在东昆仑南部发现晚新生代大型逆冲推覆构造系统。沿低角度逆冲断层,早二叠世大理岩和早三叠世砂板岩自北向南逆冲推覆于古新统—始新统风火山群紫红色砾岩和渐新世砖红色砂砾岩之上,形成大量不同规模的飞来峰;沿主逆冲断层发育厚层断层角砾岩与断层泥,局部形成碳酸盐质糜棱岩。东昆仑南部逆冲推覆构造的发育时代为渐新世晚期—中新世早期,主要形成、活动时期为26～13.5Ma;估算最小逆冲推覆距离为30～35km,最小逆冲推覆运动速率为2.4～2.8mm/a。东昆仑南部晚新生代逆冲推覆构造运动与现今山脉快速隆升存在着动力学成因联系。     

Outgoing long wave radiation variability from IR satellite data prior to major earthquakes

Our analysis of the continuous outgoing long wave earth radiation (OLR) indicates anomalous variations prior to a number of medium to large earthquakes. The most recent analysis of OLR is from the M9.0 Sumatra Andaman Islands mega trust event. We compared the reference fields for December 2001 to 2004 and found OLR anomalous values, > 80 W/m², (2σ) within the epicentral area on Dec 21, 2004, 5 days before the event. We used the NOAA/IR daily (one degree) and monthly (two and half degree) gridded data to differentiate between the global and seasonal variability and the transient local anomalies. The cause of such anomalies is not fully understood; one possible explanation is the existence of thermal outgoing radiation as a result of near ground air ionization and latent heat change due to change of air humidity and temperature. This phenomenon is hypothesized to be part of a relationship between tectonic stresses, electrochemical and thermodynamic processes in the atmosphere and increasing mid IR flux, all part of a family of electromagnetic (EM) phenomena related to earthquake activity. The time scale of the observed variations is a few weeks before the onset of the seismic event. In comparison with several years of data, the observed time-series preceding the earthquake had unusually high OLR. The OLR anomaly corresponds to a large area of ground coverage and coincides with the main epicentral zone. The significance of these observations is explored using data from most recent East Asian earthquake swarm of December 2004 and three other earthquakes.     

Disc structure around strongly magnetic accretors: a full disc solution with buoyancy diffusivity

A full numerical solution is found for the effect of a strongly magnetic star on its accretion disc, for the case of magnetic buoyancy diffusion. As in the previously considered case of turbulent diffusion, the disc becomes disrupted when magnetic and viscous stresses become comparable. A magnetically induced temperature elevation leads to electron scattering opacity and radiation pressure becoming significant far from the stellar surface, with consequent viscous instability and vertical disruption of the disc. This, together with the previous turbulent case, suggests that such a disruption mechanism owing to strongly magnetic accretors is generally operable.     

Recently increased tropical cyclone activity and inferences concerning coastal erosion and inland hydrological regimes in New Zealand and Eastern Australia

For the area bounded by 0–35 °S latitude and 105 °E–105 °W longitude a significant increase of tropical cyclone frequency occurred about 1954–55 and this regime persisted throughout the 1960s and 1970s. Probably this frequency increase was accompanied by an increase of cyclonic storm intensity. It was related to an atmospheric pressure regime change over Australasia which commenced in early 1954. Tropical cyclones produce large rainfall amounts and strong winds which generate high-energy sea waves. Severe damage can result on land and at sea. However, much recently recorded damage has resulted from extra-tropical cyclones. Therefore it is postulated that extra-tropical cyclones also increased in frequency after the mid 1950s and that both types of cyclone contributed to a significant increase in total storminess. In eastern Australia and around both islands of New Zealand a major coastal regime change occurred in the 1950s and has persisted to the present;erosion has been the dominant process. In eastern Australia there was a significant increase in the magnitude of river floods after the late 1940s. After the mid 1950s most of the North Island of New Zealand experienced the wettest years of this century which caused large closed lakes to reach the highest levels for several centuries. Throughout the North Island the majority of the greatest recorded stream floods of this century have occurred during the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s. And in forested mountain areas of the North Island the average rate of erosion and alluvial sedimentation increased markedly after the mid 1950s. The regime change of each natural phenomenon is explicable in terms of increased storminess since the mid 1950s. Consequently it is hypothesised that the coastal and inland environmental regime changes discussed were either initiated or accentuated after the mid 1950s as a result of increased activity of both tropical and extra-tropical cyclones. Some further studies, necessary to test the links in the overall hypothesis, are mentioned.     

Water vapour content over two Indian sites tested for a millimeter-wave radio observatory

Measurements of the water vapour content over two possible sites for a millimeter-wave radio-observatory in South India are described. The results of the survey, made with an infrared spectral hygrometer built at the Meudon Observatory, France are compared with those of similar surveys made at some other sites in Europe and America.