Multi-method investigation of mass transfer mechanisms in a retrogressive clayey landslide (Harmalière,French Alps)

Landslides - The mass transfer mechanisms in landslides are complex to monitor because of their suddenness and spatial coverage. The active clayey Harmalière landslide, located 30 km south of...     

PILOT: a balloon-borne experiment to measure the polarized FIR emission of dust grains in the interstellar medium

Future cosmology space missions will concentrate on measuring the polarization of the Cosmic Microwave Background, which potentially carries invaluable information about the earliest phases of the evolution of our universe. Such ambitious projects will ultimately be limited by the sensitivity of the instrument and by the accuracy at which polarized foreground emission from our own Galaxy can be subtracted out. We present the PILOT balloon project, which aims at characterizing one of these foreground sources, the polarized continuum emission by dust in the diffuse interstellar medium. The PILOT experiment also constitutes a test-bed for using multiplexed bolometer arrays for polarization measurements. This paper presents the instrument and its expected performances. Performance measured during ground calibrations of the instrument and in flight will be described in a forthcoming paper.     

Decoding a protracted zircon geochronological record in ultrahigh temperature granulite,and persistence of partial melting in the crust,Rogaland, Norway

This contribution evaluates the relation between protracted zircon geochronological signal and protracted crustal melting in the course of polyphase high to ultrahigh temperature (UHT; T?>?900 °C) granulite facies metamorphism. New U–Pb, oxygen isotope, trace element, ion imaging and cathodoluminescence (CL) imaging data in zircon are reported from five samples from Rogaland, South Norway. The data reveal that the spread of apparent age captured by zircon, between 1040 and 930 Ma, results both from open-system growth and closed-system post-crystallization disturbance. Post-crystallization disturbance is evidenced by inverse age zoning induced by solid-state recrystallization of metamict cores that received an alpha dose above 35 × 10¹⁷ α  g^?1. Zircon neocrystallization is documented by CL-dark domains displaying O isotope open-system behaviour. In UHT samples, O isotopic ratios are homogenous (δ¹⁸O = 8.91?±?0.08‰), pointing to high-temperature diffusion. Scanning ion imaging of these CL-dark domains did not reveal unsupported radiogenic Pb. The continuous geochronological signal retrieved from the CL-dark zircon in UHT samples is similar to that of monazite for the two recognized metamorphic phases (M1: 1040–990 Ma; M2: 940–930 Ma). A specific zircon-forming event is identified in the orthopyroxene and UHT zone with a probability peak at ca. 975 Ma, lasting until ca. 955 Ma. Coupling U–Pb geochronology and Ti-in-zircon thermometry provides firm evidence of protracted melting lasting up to 110 My (1040–930 Ma) in the UHT zone, 85 My (ca. 1040–955 Ma) in the orthopyroxene zone and some 40 My (ca. 1040–1000 Ma) in the regional basement. These results demonstrate the persistence of melt over long timescales in the crust, punctuated by two UHT incursions.     

A conceptual model of avalanche hazard

This conceptual model of avalanche hazard identifies the key components of avalanche hazard and structures them into a systematic, consistent workflow for hazard and risk assessments. The method is applicable to all types of avalanche forecasting operations, and the underlying principles can be applied at any scale in space or time. The concept of an avalanche problem is introduced, describing how different types of avalanche problems directly influence the assessment and management of the risk. Four sequential questions are shown to structure the assessment of avalanche hazard, namely: (1) What type of avalanche problem(s) exists? (2) Where are these problems located in the terrain? (3) How likely is it that an avalanche will occur? and (4) How big will the avalanche be? Our objective was to develop an underpinning for qualitative hazard and risk assessments and address this knowledge gap in the avalanche forecasting literature. We used judgmental decomposition to elicit the avalanche forecasting process from forecasters and then described it within a risk-based framework that is consistent with other natural hazards disciplines.     

Describing the severity of avalanche terrain numerically using the observed terrain selection practices of professional guides

The physical risk from snow avalanches poses a serious threat to mountain backcountry travelers. Avalanche risk is primarily managed by (1) assessing avalanche hazard through analysis of the local weather, snowpack, and recent avalanche activity and (2) selecting terrain that limits exposure to the identified hazard. Professional ski guides have a tremendous wealth of knowledge about using terrain to manage avalanche risk, but their expertise is tacit, which makes it difficult for them to explicitly articulate the underlying decision rules. To make this existing expertise more broadly accessible, this study examines whether it is possible to derive quantitative measures for avalanche terrain severity and condition-dependent terrain guidance directly from observed terrain selection of professional guides. We equipped lead guides at Mike Wiegele Helicopter Skiing with GPS tracking units during the 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 winters creating a dataset of 10,592 high-resolution tracked ski runs. We used four characteristics—incline, vegetation, down-slope curvature (convexities/concavities), and cross-slope curvature (gullies/ridges)—to describe the skied terrain and employed a mixed-effects ordered logistic regression model to examine the relationship between the character of most severe avalanche terrain skied on a day and the associated field-validated avalanche hazard ratings. Patterns in the regression parameter estimates reflected the existing understanding of how terrain is selected to manage avalanche risk well: the guides skied steeper, less dense vegetation, and more convoluted slopes during times of lower avalanche hazard. Avalanche terrain severity scores derived from the parameter estimates compared well to terrain previously zoned according to the Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale. Using a GIS implementation of the regression analysis, we created avalanche condition-dependent maps that provide insights into what type of terrain guides deemed acceptable for skiing under different avalanche hazard conditions. These promising results highlight the potential of tracking guides’ terrain selection decisions as they manage avalanche hazard for the development of evidence-based avalanche terrain ratings and decision aids for professional and recreational backcountry travelers.     

Modeling of the 2011 Japan Tsunami: Lessons for Near-Field Forecast

During the devastating 11 March 2011 Japanese tsunami, data from two tsunami detectors were used to determine the tsunami source within 1.5 h of earthquake origin time. For the first time, multiple near-field tsunami measurements of the 2011 Japanese tsunami were used to demonstrate the accuracy of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) real-time flooding forecast system in the far field. To test the accuracy of the same forecast system in the near field, a total of 11 numerical models with grids telescoped to 2 arcsec (~60 m) were developed to hindcast the propagation and coastal inundation of the 2011 Japanese tsunami along the entire east coastline of Japan. Using the NOAA tsunami source computed in near real-time, the model results of tsunami propagation are validated with tsunami time series measured at different water depths offshore and near shore along Japan’s coastline. The computed tsunami runup height and spatial distribution are highly consistent with post-tsunami survey data collected along the Japanese coastline. The computed inundation penetration also agrees well with survey data, giving a modeling accuracy of 85.5 % for the inundation areas along 800 km of coastline between Ibaraki Prefecture (north of Kashima) and Aomori Prefecture (south of Rokkasho). The inundation model results highlighted the variability of tsunami impact in response to different offshore bathymetry and flooded terrain. Comparison of tsunami sources inferred from different indirect methods shows the crucial importance of deep-ocean tsunami measurements for real-time tsunami forecasts. The agreement between model results and observations along Japan’s coastline demonstrate the ability and potential of NOAA’s methodology for real-time near-field tsunami flooding forecasts. An accurate tsunami flooding forecast within 30 min may now be possible using the NOAA forecast methodology with carefully placed tsunameters and large-scale high-resolution inundation models with powerful computing capabilities.     

Long-term increase in diffuse groundwater recharge following expansion of rainfed cultivation in the Sahel,West Africa

Rapid population growth in sub-Saharan West Africa and related cropland expansion were shown in some places to have increased focused recharge through ponds, raising the water table. To estimate changes in diffuse recharge, the water content and matric potential were monitored during 2009 and 2010, and modeling was performed using the Hydrus-1D code for two field sites in southwest Niger: (1) fallow land and (2) rainfed millet cropland. Monitoring results of the upper 10 m showed increased water content and matric potential to greater depth under rainfed cropland (>2.5 m) than under fallow land (≤1.0 m). Model simulations indicate that conversion from fallow land to rainfed cropland (1) increases vadose-zone water storage and (2) should increase drainage flux (～25 mm year^?1) at 10-m depth after a 30–60 year lag. Therefore, observed regional increases in groundwater storage may increasingly result from diffuse recharge, which could compensate, at least in part, groundwater withdrawal due to observed expansion in irrigated surfaces; and hence, contribute to mitigate food crises in the Sahel.