Onset of the summer monsoon over the southern Vietnam and its predictability

The summer monsoon onset over southern Vietnam is determined through a new criterion based on both in situ daily rainfall at six selected stations provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Vietnam, and the zonal component of the wind at 1,000 hPa from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/Department of Energy Reanalysis 2. Over the period 1979–2004, the summer monsoon onset mean date is on 12 May, with a standard deviation of 11.6 days. The temporal and spatial structures of the atmospheric conditions prevailing during the onset period are detailed. Clear changes are seen in the zonal wind (strengthened over the Bay of Bengal and changed from negative to positive over South Vietnam) and in convection (deeper), in association with an intensification of the meridional gradients of sea level pressure at 1,000 hPa and of moist static energy at 2 m over Southeast Asia. The predictability of onset dates is then assessed. Cross-validated hindcasts based upon four predictors linked to robust signals in the atmospheric dynamics are then provided. They are highly significant when compared to observations (56% of common variance). Basically, late (early) onsets are preceded in March–April by higher (lower) sea level pressure over the East China Sea, stronger (weaker) southeasterly winds over southern Vietnam, decreasing (increasing) deep convection over the Bay of Bengal, and the reverse situation over Indonesia (120–140°E, 0–10°S).     

Plume Detachment and Recession Times in Fractured Rock

The influence of source zone concentration reduction on solute plume detachment and recession times in fractured rock was investigated using new semianalytical solutions to transient solute transport in the presence of advection, dispersion, sorption, matrix diffusion, and first-order decay. Novel aspects of these solutions are: (1) the source zone concentration behavior is simulated using a constant concentration with the option for either an instantaneous reduction to zero concentration or an exponentially decaying source zone concentration initiated at some time (t^*) after the source is introduced, and (2) different biodegradation rates in the fracture and rock matrix. These solutions were applied for sandstone bedrock and revealed that biodegradation in the matrix, not the fracture, may be the most significant attenuation mechanism and therefore may dictate remediation time scales. Also, instantaneous and complete source concentration reduction in aged plumes may not be beneficial with respect to plume response because back-diffusion can sustain plume migration for long periods of time. Moderate source zone concentration reduction has a similar impact on the rate of advance of the leading edge of the plume as aggressive concentration reduction. If the source zone concentration reduction half-life is less than the plume decay half-life, then volatile organic compound (VOC) mass sequestered in the rock matrix will ultimately dictate plume persistence and not the presence of the source zone.     

A distribution function based bandwidth selection method for kernel quantile estimation

The key problem in nonparametric frequency analysis of flood and droughts is the estimation of the bandwidth parameter which defines the degree of smoothing. Most of the proposed bandwidth estimators have been based on the density function rather than the cumulative distribution function or the quantile that are the primary interest in frequency analysis. We propose a new bandwidth estimator derived from properties of quantile estimators. The estimator builds on work by Altman and Léger (1995). The estimator is compared to the well-known method of least squares cross-validation (LSCV) using synthetic data generated from various parametric distributions used in hydrologic frequency analysis. Simulations suggest that our estimator performs at least as well as, and in many cases better than, the method of LSCV. In particular, the use of the proposed plug-in estimator reduces bias in the estimation as compared to LSCV. When applied to data sets containing observations with identical values, typically the result of rounding or truncation, the LSCV and most other techniques generally underestimates the bandwidth. The proposed technique performs very well in such situations.     

Garnet-orthopyroxene and orthopyroxene-clinopyroxene relationships in simple and complex systems

Use of simple mixing models of orthopyroxene and garnet solid solutions enables extrapolation of experimentally determined equilibria in the MgSiO₃-Al₂O₃ system to uninvestigated parts of pressure-temperature-composition space. Apparent discrepancies in the experimental data for simple and multicomponent systems may be explained by considering the effect of CaO and FeO on reducing pyrope activity in the garnet solid solutions. Equilibration pressures of natural garnet-orthopyroxene assemblages may be calculated, provided temperatures are known, from a combination of the experimental data on the MgSiO₃-Al₂O₃ system and analyses of coexisting natural phases.Despite the presence of a compositional gap in the system, the solubility of enstatite in diopside coexisting with orthopyroxene can also be approximately treated by an ideal solution model. An empirical approach has been developed to take account of Fe²⁺ on the orthopyroxene-clinopyroxene miscibility gap in natural systems in order to calculate equilibration temperatures of 2-pyroxene assemblages. The model presented reproduces almost all of the available experimental data for multicomponent systems to within 60° C.     

Fe2+-Mg2+ partition between coexisting cordierite and garnet — a discussion of the experimental data

The partition of iron and magnesium between cordierite and garnet depends on as well as temperature. The apparently conflicting experimental data on the values of K _D may be reconciled by considering the pertaining during the different experiments.