Consolidation with threshold gradients

Evidence for threshold gradients is reviewed. The consolidation problem, with threshold gradient, is properly formulated and solved numerically. An approximate analytical solution is also developed. The influence of a threshold gradient on the time rate of settlement is examined, and it is shown that by modifying the definition of the degree of consolidation a good approximation to the threshold gradient problem can be obtained directly from the Terzaghi solution. It is also shown that threshold gradients will have no influence on odometer testing and their effect is, therefore, to reduce the primary compression below that predicted from standard tests.     

Changes in European precipitation seasonality and in drought frequencies revealed by a four-century-long tree-ring isotopic record from Brittany, western France

A new paleoclimatic reconstruction for western France is obtained from tree-ring cellulose stable isotopes. Living trees from Rennes Forest and beams from two ancient buildings in Rennes city have been combined to cover the past four centuries with a gap from 1730 to 1750. The cellulose ¹³C reflects the progressive changes in atmospheric CO₂ isotopic composition. The combined ¹³C and ¹⁸O measurements are used to propose a reconstruction of interannual fluctuations in local summer temperature and water stress. At the decadal time scale, the reconstructed water stress profile exhibits a significant similarity with the historical wine harvest dates, an indicator of warm and dry growth seasons, as well as with the summer central England and central Alps instrumental temperature records and climate model results. Combined with instrumental precipitation records from Paris, these reconstructions suggest a dramatic and widespread change in the seasonality of the precipitation at the beginning of the nineteenth century, with drier winters and wetter summers, which may have contributed to the Alpine glacier decline at the end of the Little Ice Age. The tree-ring isotope records also show a relationship with large-scale North Atlantic circulation changes and the interannual variability is modified between the nineteenth and twentieth centuries (7–8 year periodicities) and the seventeenth century (11–14 year periodicities). By classifying 20-year-long subsets of the reconstructed climatic parameters, we estimate that a decadal mean summer warming of 0.8±0.1°C induced extreme dry years to be 2.2±0.7 times more frequent.     

Pyroclastic Flow Hazard at Volcán Citlaltépetl

Volcán Citlaltépetl (Pico de Orizaba) with an elevation of 5,675 m is the highest volcano in North America. Its most recent catastrophic events involved the production of pyroclastic flows that erupted approximately 4,000, 8,500, and 13,000 years ago. The distribution of mapped deposits from these eruptions gives an approximate guide to the extent of products from potential future eruptions. Because the topography of this volcano is constantly changing computer simulations were made on the present topography using three computer algorithms: energy cone, FLOW2D, and FLOW3D. The Heim Coefficient (), used as a code parameter for frictional sliding in all our algorithms, is the ratio of the assumed drop in elevation (H) divided by the lateral extent of the mapped deposits (L). The viscosity parameter for the FLOW2D and FLOW3D codes was adjusted so that the paths of the flows mimicked those inferred from the mapped deposits. We modeled two categories of pyroclastic flows modeled for the level I and level II events. Level I pyroclastic flows correspond to small but more frequent block-and-ash flows that remain on the main cone. Level II flows correspond to more widespread flows from catastrophic eruptions with an approximate 4,000-year repose period. We developed hazard maps from simulations based on a National Imagery and Mapping Agency (NIMA) DTED-1 DEM with a 90 m grid and a vertical accuracy of ±30 m. Because realistic visualization is an important aid to understanding the risks related to volcanic hazards we present the DEM as modeled by FLOW3D. The model shows that the pyroclastic flows extend for much greater distances to the east of the volcano summit where the topographic relief is nearly 4,300 m. This study was used to plot hazard zones for pyroclastic flows in the official hazard map that was published recently.     

The synergistic powers of AEM and GIS geodatabase models in water resources studies

Comprehensive studies of water resources systems require integration of modeling tools and data associated with individual processes. An object-oriented approach is presented here that associates ground water models based upon the analytic element method (AEM) with geographic information system (GIS) geodatabase features using an AEM Model Interface. Each aquifer object contains a prescribed geometry, a mathematical representation in the AEM, and GIS hydrogeologic data. The synergistic understanding inherent in such an approach is illustrated by a study linking local AEM model predictions of water elevation with ground water geodatabase objects. This AEM Model Interface provides a key component in establishing a common object-oriented geodatabase modeling approach linking ground water to a variety of natural and social processes.     

The role of the intra-daily SST variability in the Indian monsoon variability and monsoon-ENSO–IOD relationships in a global coupled model

The impact of diurnal SST coupling and vertical oceanic resolution on the simulation of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and its relationships with El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events are studied through the analysis of four integrations of a high resolution Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM), but with different configurations. The only differences between the four integrations are the frequency of coupling between the ocean and atmosphere for the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) parameter (2 vs. 24?h coupling) and/or the vertical oceanic resolution (31 vs. 301 levels) in the CGCM. Although the summer mean tropical climate is reasonably well captured with all the configurations of the CGCM and is not significantly modified by changing the frequency of SST coupling from once to twelve per day, the ISM–ENSO teleconnections are rather poorly simulated in the two simulations in which SST is exchanged only once per day, independently of the vertical oceanic resolution used in the CGCM. Surprisingly, when 2?h SST coupling is implemented in the CGCM, the ISM–ENSO teleconnection is better simulated, particularly, the complex lead-lag relationships between the two phenomena, in which a weak ISM occurs during the developing phase of an El Ni?o event in the Pacific, are closely resembling the observed ones. Evidence is presented to show that these improvements are related to changes in the characteristics of the model’s El Ni?o which has a more realistic evolution in its developing and decaying phases, a stronger amplitude and a shift to lower frequencies when a 2-hourly SST coupling strategy is implemented without any significant changes in the basic state of the CGCM. As a consequence of these improvements in ENSO variability, the lead relationships between Indo-Pacific SSTs and ISM rainfall resemble the observed patterns more closely, the ISM–ENSO teleconnection is strengthened during boreal summer and ISM rainfall power spectrum is in better agreement with observations. On the other hand, the ISM–IOD teleconnection is sensitive to both SST coupling frequency and the vertical oceanic resolution, but increasing the vertical oceanic resolution is degrading the ISM–IOD teleconnection in the CGCM. These results highlight the need of a proper assessment of both temporal scale interactions and coupling strategies in order to improve current CGCMs. These results, which must be confirmed with other CGCMs, have also important implications for dynamical seasonal prediction systems or climate change projections of the monsoon.     

Impacts of warm and cold situations in the Mediterranean basins on the West African monsoon: observed connection patterns (1979–2006) and climate simulations

Using both empirical and numerical ensemble approaches this study focuses on the Mediterranean/West African relationship in northern summer. Statistical analyses utilize skin temperature, sea surface temperature, in situ and satellite rainfall, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) observations and reanalyzed data winds and specific humidity on isobaric surfaces. Numerical investigations are based on a large set of sensitivity experiments performed on four atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM): ARPEGE-Climat3, ECHAM4, LMDZ4 and UCLA7.3. Model outputs are compared to observations, discussed model by model and with an ensemble (multi-model) approach. As in previous studies the anomalous Mediterranean warm events are associated with specific impacts over the African monsoon region, i.e., a more intense monsoon, enhanced flux convergence and ascendances around the ITCZ, a strengthening of low level moisture advection and a more northward location of ascending motion in West Africa. The results show also new features (1) thermal variability observed in the two Mediterranean basins has unalike impacts, i.e. the western Mediterranean covaries with convection in Gulf of Guinea, while the eastern Mediterranean can be interpreted as Sahelian thermal-forcing; (2) although observations show symmetry between warming and cooling, modelling evidences only support the eastern warming influence; (3) anomalous East warm situations are associated with a more northward migration of the monsoon system accompanied by enhanced southwertely flow and weakened northeasterly climatological wind; (4) the multi-model response shows that anomalous East warm surface temperatures generate an enhancement of the overturning circulation in low and high levels, an increase in TEJ (Tropical Eeasterly Jet) and a decrease in AEJ (African Eeasterly Jet).