High stands of Holocene sea levels in the Northwest Pacific

Evidence of Holocene sea levels higher than the present level have often been reported from the Northwest Pacific. Eustatic interpretations have been propounded, but age and level of the maximum transgression vary with each new analysis. In this investigation, after an inventory of approximately 250 items of data, some of which are new, a tentative synthesis transcending local scale is advanced. The highest levels are reported from Taiwan, where they often reach several tens of meters in altitude. In the Ryûkyûs and in the main islands of the Japanese Archipelago, evidence of recent emergence is found along most of the coasts. Elevation increases towards the oceanic trenches, but former sea levels at above 6 m and even higher may also be recognized along the coasts of the Sea of Japan. In a few areas, such as in the Niigata Plain, marks of Holocene sea levels higher than at present are lacking. On the other hand, in other basins regarded as subsiding, such as those in the Nôbi and the Kantô plains, evidence of recent emergence is quite frequent. In many places, marks of several sea levels indicate that a step-by-step uplift has occurred. All the investigated insular arcs, therefore, seem to be situated in epeirogenic areas formed by several more or less large blocks affected by relative movements. The blocks are larger in the Outer Zone of Southwestern Japan; in the Inner Zone, an intricate network of fault lines marks the boundaries of many smaller independent blocks. During great earthquakes, relative movements of uplift, subsidence, tilting, or undulation occur in one or several blocks, depending on the position of the epicentres. Subsidence, however, must often be simply of a temporary nature, because a long-term uplift trend seems to prevail in most regions, even if it occurs at different rates. This interpretation may explain the cause of the great variety of ages and elevations of the former sea levels (with the oldest ages corresponding to the highest elevations) and the great number of indicators of step-by-step sea-level change. The inference, drawn by several authors, that the Holocene sea level in the Northwest Pacific was higher than at present, is, therefore, reasonable on a local scale, but does not define an eustatic sea level.     

On secular movements in the area Venice-Bologna-Rimini

Sans résumé

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On secular movements in the area Venice-Bologna-Rimini

     

Gamma ray spectra of some lavas from Vesuvius

The authors have carried out the gamma-ray spectrometry of some Vesuvius lavas, by means of a S.E.L.O. equipment which consists of a 100 channels analyzer joined to a photomultiplier tube annexed to aNaI(T1) phosphor. TheU ²³⁸,Th ²³²,Ra ²²⁶ andK ₂ O contents have been determined and the following conclusions have been drawn: theU ²³⁸ seems to be present in the examined lavas and the contents are fairly equal within the errors; also theTh ²³² andK ₂ O contents show no sensible variations in the different lavas. TheRa ²²⁶ content is remarkably higher than that necessary for the equilibrium with the observedU ²³⁸ content and shows a decrease with the age of the lavas. TheRa ²²⁶ content which exceeds that necessary for the equilibrium with the observedU ²³⁸ content decreases with a law similar to the natural radioactive decay ofRa ²²⁶.     

Cost-sensitive rainfall thresholds for shallow landslides

The risk management of rainfall-induced landslides requires reliable rainfall thresholds to issue early warning alerts. The practical application of these thresholds often leads to misclassifications, either false negative or false positive, which induce costs for the society. Since missed-alarm (false negative) and false-alarm (false positive) cost may be significantly different, it is necessary to find an optimal threshold that accounts for and minimises such costs, tuning the false-alarm and missed-alarm rates. In this paper, we propose a new methodology to develop cost-sensitive rainfall thresholds, and we also analyse several factors that produce uncertainty, such as the accuracy of rainfall intensity values at landslide location, the time of occurrence, the minimum rainfall amount to define the non-triggering event, and the variability of cost scenarios. Starting from a detailed mapping of landslides that occurred during five large-scale rainfall events in the Italian Central Alps, we first developed rainfall threshold curves with a ROC-based approach by using both rain gauge and bias-adjusted weather radar data. Then, based on a reference cost scenario in which we quantified several cost items for both missed alarms and false alarms, we developed cost-sensitive rainfall threshold curves by using cost-curve approach (Drummond and Holte 2000). Finally, we studied the sensitivity of cost items. The study confirms how important is the information regarding rainfall intensity at the landslide site for the development of rainfall thresholds. Although the use of bias-corrected radar strongly improves these values, a large uncertainty related to the exact time of landslide occurrence still remains, negatively affecting the analysis. Accounting for the different missed-alarm and false-alarm misclassification costs is important because different combinations of these costs make an increase or decrease of the rainfall thresholds convenient. In our reference cost scenario, the most convenient threshold is lower than ROC-based thresholds because it seeks to minimise the number of missed alarms, whereas the missed-alarm costs are almost seven times greater than false-alarm costs. However, for different cost scenarios, threshold may vary significantly, as much as half an order of magnitude.

     

Geotechnical characterization of the upper Pleistocene–Holocene alluvial deposits of Roma (Italy) by means of multivariate geostatistics: Cross-validation results

We are presenting an attempt to evaluate the spatial variability of geotechnical parameters in the upper Pleistocene–Holocene alluvial deposits of Roma (Italy) by means of multivariate geostatistics.The upper Pleistocene–Holocene alluvial deposits of Roma are sensitive to high levels of geohazard. They occupy a sizable and significant part of the city, being the foundation for many monuments, historical neighborhoods, and archaeological areas, and the main host of the present and future subway lines. We have stored information from more than 2000 geotechnical boreholes crossing the alluvial deposits into a relational database. For the present study, only the boreholes with lithologic/textural interpretation and geotechnical information were selected. The set includes 283 boreholes and 719 samples, which have a set of geotechnical information comprising physical properties and mechanical parameters.Techniques of multivariate statistics and geostatistics were combined and compared to evaluate the estimation methods of the mechanical parameters, with special reference to the drained friction angle from direct shear test (φ′). Principal Component Analysis was applied to the dataset to highlight the relationships between the geotechnical parameters. Through cross-validation analysis, multiple linear regression, kriging, and cokriging were tested as estimators of φ′. Cross-validation demonstrates that the cokriging with granulometries as auxiliary variables is the most suitable method to estimate φ′. In addition to proving that cokriging is a good estimator of φ′, cross-validation demonstrates that input data are coherent and this allows us to use them for estimation of geotechnical parameters, although they come from different laboratories and different vintages.Nevertheless, to get the same good results of cross-validation in estimation, it is necessary for granulometries to be available at grid points. Since this information being not available at all grid points, it is expected that, in the future, textural information can be derived in an indirect way, i.e., from lithologic/textural spatial reconstructions.     

Geomorphology and landslide susceptibility assessment using GIS and bivariate statistics: a case study in southern Italy

In this article, the results of a study aimed to assess the landslide susceptibility in the Calaggio Torrent basin (Campanian Apennines, southern Italy) are presented. The landslide susceptibility has been assessed using two bivariate-statistics-based methods in a GIS environment. In the first method, widely used in the existing literature, weighting values (Wi) have been calculated for each class of the selected causal factors (lithology, land-use, slope angle and aspect) taking into account the landslide density (detachment zones + landslide body) within each class. In the second method, which is a modification of the first method, only the landslide detachment zone (LDZ) density has been taken into account to calculate the weighting values. This latter method is probably characterized by a major geomorphological coherence. In fact, differently from the landslide bodies, LDZ must necessarily occur in geoenvironmental classes prone to failure. Thus, the calculated Wi seem to be more reliable in estimating the propensity of a given class to generate failure. The thematic maps have been reclassified on the basis of the calculated Wi and then overlaid, with the purpose to produce landslide susceptibility maps. The used methods converge both in indicating that most part of the study area is characterized by a high–very high landslide susceptibility and in the location and extent of the low-susceptible areas. However, an increase of both the high–very high and moderate–high susceptible areas occurs in using the second method. Both the produced susceptibility maps have been compared with the geomorphological map, highlighting an excellent coherence which is higher using method-2. In both methods, the percentage of each susceptibility class affected by landslides increases with the degree of susceptibility, as expected. However, the percentage at issue in the lowest susceptibility class obtained using method-2, even if low, is higher than that obtained using method-1. This suggests that method-2, notwithstanding its major geomorphological coherence, probably still needs further refinements.     

The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution part 2: historical and future simulations of precipitation

This paper presents the first multi-model ensemble of 10-year, “convection-permitting” kilometer-scale regional climate model (RCM) scenario simulations downscaled from selected CMIP5 GCM projections for historical and end of century time slices. The technique is to first downscale the CMIP5 GCM projections to an intermediate 12–15 km resolution grid using RCMs, and then use these fields to downscale further to the kilometer scale. The aim of the paper is to provide an overview of the representation of the precipitation characteristics and their projected changes over the greater Alpine domain within a Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment Flagship Pilot Study and the European Climate Prediction system project, tasked with investigating convective processes at the kilometer scale. An ensemble of 12 simulations performed by different research groups around Europe is analyzed. The simulations are evaluated through comparison with high resolution observations while the complementary ensemble of 12 km resolution driving models is used as a benchmark to evaluate the added value of the convection-permitting ensemble. The results show that the kilometer-scale ensemble is able to improve the representation of fine scale details of mean daily, wet-day/hour frequency, wet-day/hour intensity and heavy precipitation on a seasonal scale, reducing uncertainty over some regions. It also improves the representation of the summer diurnal cycle, showing more realistic onset and peak of convection. The kilometer-scale ensemble refines and enhances the projected patterns of change from the coarser resolution simulations and even modifies the sign of the precipitation intensity change and heavy precipitation over some regions. The convection permitting simulations also show larger changes for all indices over the diurnal cycle, also suggesting a change in the duration of convection over some regions. A larger positive change of frequency of heavy to severe precipitation is found. The results are encouraging towards the use of convection-permitting model ensembles to produce robust assessments of the local impacts of future climate change.

     

Water-Channel Estimation of Eulerian and Lagrangian Time Scales of the Turbulence in Idealized Two-Dimensional Urban Canopies

Lagrangian and Eulerian statistics are obtained from a water-channel experiment of an idealized two-dimensional urban canopy flow in neutral conditions. The objective is to quantify the Eulerian \((T^{\mathrm{E}})\) and Lagrangian \((T^{\mathrm{L}})\) time scales of the turbulence above the canopy layer as well as to investigate their dependence on the aspect ratio of the canopy, AR, as the latter is the ratio of the width (W) to the height (H) of the canyon. Experiments are also conducted for the case of flat terrain, which can be thought of as equivalent to a classical one-directional shear flow. The values found for the Eulerian time scales on flat terrain are in agreement with previous numerical results found in the literature. It is found that both the streamwise and vertical components of the Lagrangian time scale, \(T_\mathrm{u}^\mathrm{L} \) and \(T_\mathrm{w}^\mathrm{L} \), follow Raupach’s linear law within the constant-flux layer. The same holds true for \(T_\mathrm{w}^\mathrm{L} \) in both the canopies analyzed \((AR= 1\) and \(AR= 2\)) and also for \(T_\mathrm{u}^\mathrm{L} \) when \(AR = 1\). In contrast, for \(AR = 2\), \(T_\mathrm{u}^\mathrm{L} \) follows Raupach’s law only above \(z=2H\). Below that level, \(T_\mathrm{u}^\mathrm{L} \) is nearly constant with height, showing at \(z=H\) a value approximately one order of magnitude greater than that found for \(AR = 1\). It is shown that the assumption usually adopted for flat terrain, that \(\beta =T^{\mathrm{L}}/T^{\mathrm{E}}\) is proportional to the inverse of the turbulence intensity, also holds true even for the canopy flow in the constant-flux layer. In particular, \(\gamma /i_\mathrm{u} \) fits well \(\beta _\mathrm{u} =T_\mathrm{u}^\mathrm{L} /T_\mathrm{u}^\mathrm{E} \) in both the configurations by choosing \(\gamma \) to be 0.35 (here, \(i_\mathrm{u} =\sigma _\mathrm{u} / \bar{u} \), where \(\bar{u} \) and \(\sigma _\mathrm{u} \) are the mean and the root-mean-square of the streamwise velocity component, respectively). On the other hand, \(\beta _\mathrm{w} =T_\mathrm{w}^\mathrm{L} /T_\mathrm{w}^\mathrm{E} \) follows approximately \(\gamma /i_\mathrm{w} =0.65/\left( {\sigma _\mathrm{w} /\bar{u} } \right) \) for \(z > 2H\), irrespective of the AR value. The second main objective is to estimate other parameters of interest in dispersion studies, such as the eddy diffusivity of momentum \((K_\mathrm{{T}})\) and the Kolmogorov constant \((C_0)\). It is found that \(C_0\) depends appreciably on the velocity component both for the flat terrain and canopy flow, even though for the latter case it is insensitive to AR values. In all the three experimental configurations analyzed here, \(K_\mathrm{{T}}\) shows an overall linear growth with height in agreement with the linear trend predicted by Prandtl’s theory.