On the importance of intra-frame and inter-frame covariances in frame transformation theory

The coordinate frame transformation (CFT) problem in geodesy is typically solved by a stepwise approach which entails both inverse and forward treatment of the available data. The unknown transformation parameters are first estimated on the basis of common points given in both frames, and subsequently they are used for transforming the coordinates of other (new) points from their initial frame to the desired target frame. Such an approach, despite its rational reasoning, does not provide the optimal accuracy for the transformed coordinates as it overlooks the stochastic correlation (which often exists) between the common and the new points in the initial frame. In this paper we present a single-step least squares approach for the rigorous solution of the CFT problem that takes into account both the intra-frame and inter-frame coordinate covariances in the available data. The optimal estimators for the transformed coordinates are derived in closed form and they involve appropriate corrections to the standard estimators of the stepwise approach. Their practical significance is evaluated through numerical experiments with the 3D Helmert transformation model and real coordinate sets obtained from weekly combined solutions of the EUREF Permanent Network. Our results show that the difference between the standard approach and the optimal approach can become significant since the magnitude of the aforementioned corrections remains well above the statistical accuracy of the transformation results that are obtained by the standard (stepwise) solution.     

Analysis of Summer Ozone Observations at a High Mountain Site in Central Italy (Campo Imperatore, 2388 m a.s.l.)

Tropospheric ozone (O₃) is an important atmospheric pollutant and climate forcer. The Mediterranean basin is a hot-spot region in terms of short-term O₃ distribution, with frequent episodes of high tropospheric O₃, especially during summer. To improve the characterisation of summer O₃ variability in the Mediterranean area, during the period 6–27 August 2009 an experimental campaign was conducted at Campo Imperatore, Mt Portella (CMP), a high mountain site (2,388 m a.s.l.) located in the central Italian Apennines. As deduced from analysis of atmospheric circulation, the measurement site was significantly affected by air masses originating over the Mediterranean basin, which affected the measurement site for 32 % of the time. Analysis of average values and diurnal and day-to-day variability revealed that CMP O₃ observations (average value 60.0 ± 5.1 ppbv) were comparable with measurements at other European mountain stations, indicating a prevalent effect of meteorological conditions and atmospheric transport on the synoptic scale. In fact, only a small “reverse” diurnal variation typically characterises diurnal O₃ variability because of local thermal wind circulation, which sporadically favours transport of air masses rich in O₃ from the foothill regions. Statistical analysis of five-day back-trajectory ensembles indicates that synoptic-scale air-mass transport from the Mediterranean Sea usually results in decreasing O₃ concentrations at CMP, whereas the highest hourly O₃ values are mostly associated with air masses from central continental Europe, eastern Europe, and northern Italy. High O₃ concentrations are also related to downward air-mass transport from higher altitudes. Comparison of in-situ O₃ variability with tropospheric O₃ satellite-based measurements reveals similar features of the two data sets. Together with the results from back-trajectory analysis, this indicates that CMP measurements might usefully improve characterisation of broad-scale O₃ variability over the central Mediterranean basin.     

A probabilistic approach for the prediction of seismic resilience of bridges

This paper proposes a probabilistic approach for the pre‐event assessment of seismic resilience of bridges, including uncertainties associated with expected damage, restoration process, and rebuilding/rehabilitation costs. A fragility analysis performs the probabilistic evaluation of the level of damage (none, slight, moderate, extensive, and complete) induced on bridges by a seismic event. Then, a probabilistic six‐parameter sinusoidal‐based function describes the bridge functionality over time. Depending on the level of regional seismic hazard, the level of performance that decision makers plan to achieve, the allowable economic impact, and the available budget for post‐event rehabilitation activities, a wide spectrum of scenarios are provided. Possible restoration strategies accounting for the desired level of resilience and direct and indirect costs are investigated by performing a Monte Carlo simulation based on Latin hypercube sampling. Sensitivity analyses show how the recovery parameters affect the resilience assessment and seismic impact. Finally, the proposed approach is applied to an existing highway bridge located along a segment of I‐15, between the cities of Corona and Murrieta, in California. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Current Behaviour and Dynamics of the Lowermost Italian Glacier (Montasio Occidentale,Julian Alps)

Smaller glaciers (<0.5 km²) react quickly to environmental changes and typically show a large scatter in their individual response. Accounting for these ice bodies is essential for assessing regional glacier change, given their high number and contribution to the total loss of glacier area in mountain regions. However, studying small glaciers using traditional techniques may be difficult or not feasible, and assessing their current activity and dynamics may be problematic. In this paper, we present an integrated approach for characterizing the current behaviour of a small, avalanche‐fed glacier at low altitude in the Italian Alps, combining geomorphological, geophysical and high‐resolution geodetic surveying with a terrestrial laser scanner. The glacier is still active and shows a detectable mass transfer from the accumulation area to the lower ablation area, which is covered by a thick debris mantle. The glacier owes its existence to the local topo‐climatic conditions, ensured by high rock walls which enhance accumulation by delivering avalanche snow and reduce ablation by providing topographic shading and regulating the debris budget of the glacier catchment. In the last several years the glacier has displayed peculiar behaviour compared with most glaciers of the European Alps, being close to equilibrium conditions in spite of warm ablation seasons. Proportionally small relative changes have also occurred since the Little Ice Age maximum. Compared with the majority of other Alpine glaciers, we infer for this glacier a lower sensitivity to air temperature and a higher sensitivity to precipitation, associated with important feedback from increasing debris cover during unfavourable periods.     

Lunar capture trajectories and homoclinic connections through isomorphic mapping

Analysis and design of low-energy transfers to the Moon has been a subject of great interest for many decades. This paper is concerned with a topological study of such transfers, with emphasis to trajectories that allow performing lunar capture and those that exhibit homoclinic connections, in the context of the circular restricted three-body problem. A fundamental theorem stated by Conley locates capture trajectories in the phase space and can be condensed in a sentence: “if a crossing asymptotic orbit exists then near any such there is a capture orbit”. In this work this fundamental theoretical assertion is used together with an original cylindrical isomorphic mapping of the phase space associated with the third body dynamics. For a given energy level, the stable and unstable invariant manifolds of the periodic Lyapunov orbit around the collinear interior Lagrange point are computed and represented in cylindrical coordinates as tubes that emanate from the transformed periodic orbit. These tubes exhibit complex geometrical features. Their intersections correspond to homoclinic orbits and determine the topological separation of long-term lunar capture orbits from short-duration capture trajectories. The isomorphic mapping is proven to allow a deep insight on the chaotic motion that characterizes the dynamics of the circular restricted three-body, and suggests an interesting interpretation, and together corroboration, of Conley’s assertion on the topological location of lunar capture orbits. Moreover, an alternative three-dimensional representation of the phase space is profitably employed to identify convenient lunar periodic orbits that can be entered with modest propellant consumption, starting from the Lyapunov orbit.     

Benford’s Law in Time Series Analysis of Seismic Clusters

Benford’s analysis is applied to the recurrence times of approximately 17,000 seismic events in different geological contexts of Italy over the last 6 years, including the Mt. Etna volcanic area and the seismic series associated with the destructive M _w 6.3, 2009 L’Aquila earthquake. A close conformity to Benford’s law and a power-law probability distribution for the recurrence times of consecutive events is found, as typical of random multiplicative processes. The application of Benford’s law to the recurrence event times in seismic series of specific seismogenic regions represents a novel approach, which enlarges the occurrence and relevance of Benford-like asymmetries, with implications on the physics of natural systems approaching a power law behaviour. Moreover, we propose that the shift from a close conformity of Benford’s law to Brownian dynamics, observed for time separations among non-consecutive events in the study seismic series, may be ruled by a periodical noise factor, such as the effects of Earth tides on seismicity tuning.     

The role of near-surface cavities in the carbon dioxide cycle of karst areas: evidence from the Carburangeli Cave Natural Reserve (Italy)

Hydrological, chemical and meteorological data collected during the years 2006–2007 at Carburangeli Cave (Italy) have provided new insights on the near-surface cycle of carbon dioxide, particularly concerning the role played by fractures and karst conduits. Carbon dioxide is trapped in the underground atmosphere essentially when its temperature is lower than the outer one. By contrast, convective air circulation disperses all the excess CO₂ in the external environment when the thermal differential is inverted. The network of fractures and karst conduits then works, in the vadose zone, as a re-circulator of CO₂ from the soil to the atmosphere. The total amount of CO₂ fixed in the underground is controlled, during the wet season, by the amount of infiltrating waters, which act as the main carrier of CO₂ in the subsoil. By contrast, during the dry season, gravitational drainage is responsible for the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the underground voids. The quantitative balance demonstrated that the degassed CO₂ amounts are one order of magnitude higher than the dissolved CO₂. In light of this, if the near-surface outgassing processes are not taken into account, CO₂ budgets may be affected by significant errors.     

Basic principles of multi-risk assessment: a case study in Italy

The assessment of the impact of different catastrophic events in a given area requires innovative approaches that allow risks comparison and that account for all the possible risk interactions. In the common practice, the risk evaluation related to different sources is generally done through independent analyses, adopting disparate procedures and time--space resolutions. Such a strategy of risks evaluation has some evident major drawbacks as, for example, it is difficult (if not impossible) to compare the risk of different origins, and the implicit assumption of independence of the risk sources leads to neglect possible interactions among threats and/or cascade effects. The latter may amplify the overall risk, and potentially the multi-risk index could be higher than the simple aggregation of single-risk indexes calculated considering each source as independent from the others. In this paper, we put forward some basic principles for multi-risk assessment, and we consider a real application to Casalnuovo municipality (Southern Italy), in which we face the problem to make different hazards comparable, and we highlight when and how possible interactions among different threats may become important.     

Mapping potential surface ponding in agriculture using UAV-SfM

Among the environmental problems that could affect agriculture, one of the most critical is ponding. This may be defined as water storage on the surface in concavities and depressions due to soil saturation. Stagnant water can seriously affect crops and the management of agricultural landscapes. It is mainly caused by prolonged rainfall events, soil type, or wrong mechanization practices, which cause soil compaction. To better understand this problem and thus provide adequate solutions to reduce the related risk, high-resolution topographic information could be strategically important because it offers an accurate representation of the surface morphology. In the last decades, new remote sensing techniques provide interesting opportunities to understand the processes on the Earth's surface based on geomorphic signatures. Among these, Uncrewed Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), combined with the structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry technique, represent a solid, low-cost, rapid, and flexible solution for geomorphological analysis. This study aims to present a new approach to detect the potential areas exposed to water stagnation at the farm scale. The high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) from UAV-SfM data is used to do this. The potential water depth was calculated in the DEM using the relative elevation attribute algorithm. The detection of more pronounced concavities and convexities allowed an estimation and mapping of the potential ponding conditions. The results were assessed by observations and field measurements and are promising, showing a Cohen's k(X) accuracy of 0.683 for the planimetric extent of the ponding phenomena and a Pearson's r_xy coefficient of 0.971 for the estimation of pond water depth. The proposed workflow provides a useful indication to stakeholders for better agricultural management in lowland landscapes.     

Exponential decay and exciter profile of fast pulses in type IV events

Some fast bursts occurring at 237 MHz during type IV events in association with sawtooth pulsations have been studied. These bursts, when occurring sufficiently isolated from the adjacent pulsating activity, appear to have an exponential decay phase similar to that of fast type III bursts.A computational procedure, based on Fourier transform techniques, has been applied; it allows the computation, for every observed point in the time profile, of the corresponding value for the logarithmic derivative and for the exciter function. The results so far obtained show that the time decay value is of the same order observed for normal type III's. As the bursts studied appear clearly not to be type III's (mainly for their total polarization), but isolated components of pulsation groups, this result may be an interesting indicator of the emission mechanism (plasma waves excitation and its abrupt stop) involved in type IV decimetric pulsations.Proceedings of the Workshop on Radio Continua during Solar Flares, held at Duino (Trieste), Italy, 27–31 May, 1985.