Application of the EnKF and Localization to Automatic History Matching of Facies Distribution and Production Data

The performance of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for continuous updating of facies location and boundaries in a reservoir model based on production and facies data for a 3D synthetic problem is presented. The occurrence of the different facies types is treated as a random process and the initial distribution was obtained by truncating a bi-Gaussian random field. Because facies data are highly non-Gaussian, re-parameterization was necessary in order to use the EnKF algorithm for data assimilation; two Gaussian random fields are updated in lieu of the static facies parameters. The problem of history matching applied to facies is difficult due to (1) constraints to facies observations at wells are occasionally violated when productions data are assimilated; (2) excessive reduction of variance seems to be a bigger problem with facies than with Gaussian random permeability and porosity fields; and (3) the relationship between facies variables and data is so highly non-linear that the final facies field does not always honor early production data well. Consequently three issues are investigated in this work. Is it possible to iteratively enforce facies constraints when updates due to production data have caused them to be violated? Can localization of adjustments be used for facies to prevent collapse of the variance during the data-assimilation period? Is a forecast from the final state better than a forecast from time zero using the final parameter fields?To investigate these issues, a 3D reservoir simulation model is coupled with the EnKF technique for data assimilation. One approach to enforcing the facies constraint is continuous iteration on all available data, which may lead to inconsistent model states, incorrect weighting of the production data and incorrect adjustment of the state vector. A sequential EnKF where the dynamic and static data are assimilated sequentially is presented and this approach seems to have solved the highlighted problems above. When the ensemble size is small compared to the number of independent data, the localized adjustment of the state vector is a very important technique that may be used to mitigate loss of rank in the ensemble. Implementing a distance-based localization of the facies adjustment appears to mitigate the problem of variance deficiency in the ensembles by ensuring that sufficient variability in the ensemble is maintained throughout the data assimilation period. Finally, when data are assimilated without localization, the prediction results appear to be independent of the starting point. When localization is applied, it is better to predict from the start using the final parameter field rather than continue from the final state.     

Galileo status: orbits,clocks, and positioning

The European Global Navigation Satellite System Galileo is close to declaration of initial services. The current constellation comprises a total of 12 active satellites, four of them belonging to the first generation of In-Orbit Validation satellites, while the other eight are Full Operational Capability (FOC) satellites. Although the first pair of FOC satellites suffered from a launch anomaly resulting in an elliptical orbit, these satellites can be used for scientific applications without relevant limitations. The quality of broadcast orbits and clocks has significantly improved since the beginning of routine transmissions and has reached a signal-in-space range error of 30 cm. Precise orbit products generated by the scientific community achieve an accuracy of about 5 cm if appropriate models for the solar radiation pressure are applied. The latter is also important for an assessment of the clock stability as orbit errors are mapped to the apparent clock. Dual-frequency single point positioning with broadcast orbits and clocks of nine Galileo satellites that have so far been declared healthy already enables an accuracy at a few meters. Galileo-only precise point positioning approaches a precision of 2 cm in static mode using daily solutions.     

Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for conditioning a permeability field to pressure data

Generating one realization of a random permeability field that is consistent with observed pressure data and a known variogram model is not a difficult problem. If, however, one wants to investigate the uncertainty of reservior behavior, one must generate a large number of realizations and ensure that the distribution of realizations properly reflects the uncertainty in reservoir properties. The most widely used method for conditioning permeability fields to production data has been the method of simulated annealing, in which practitioners attempt to minimize the difference between the ’ ’true and simulated production data, and “true” and simulated variograms. Unfortunately, the meaning of the resulting realization is not clear and the method can be extremely slow. In this paper, we present an alternative approach to generating realizations that are conditional to pressure data, focusing on the distribution of realizations and on the efficiency of the method. Under certain conditions that can be verified easily, the Markov chain Monte Carlo method is known to produce states whose frequencies of appearance correspond to a given probability distribution, so we use this method to generate the realizations. To make the method more efficient, we perturb the states in such a way that the variogram is satisfied automatically and the pressure data are approximately matched at every step. These perturbations make use of sensitivity coefficients calculated from the reservoir simulator.     

Calculations of the seasonal loadings of North Sea sediments with persistent aromatic organochlorines

The content and distribution of ΣPCB (as the sum of 24 individual components), HCB and p,p′-DDE was determined in sediments taken from the North Sea during two seasons. The mass-balance of aromatic organochlorine compounds in the upper 2 cm of sediments is calculated and dicussed in relation to pollutant dispersal.     

Promoting green industrial development through local content requirements: India's National Solar Mission

In order to make renewable energy technology deployment strategies politically acceptable, many countries are linking them to other socio-economic goals. A controversial industrial policy tool that is increasingly popular is the use of local content requirements (LCRs). These regulate the extent to which certain projects must use local products and are often justified on the basis of supporting local employment and private sector development. The LCR debate has centred on the rights and wrongs of protecting infant industry, with little progress being made in finding common ground. This article aims to move beyond this stalemate to understand conditions under which LCRs might be an effective tool for promoting local manufacturing. To do so, an effectiveness framework is applied to LCRs for solar photovoltaics in India's National Solar Mission. The article finds that for LCRs to be effective, they must be (1) limited in duration and incorporate planned evaluation phases, (2) focused on technologies and components for which technical expertise is available and global market entry barriers are manageable, and (3) linked to training and promotion of business linkages and linked to support for other stages of the value chain and wider services integral to success of renewable energy industries.

Policy relevance

It is widely appreciated that governments need to support renewable energy technology deployment in order to mitigate climate change. However, policy makers face increasing pressure to link such support with other socio-economic goals, such as job creation, economic development, and poverty reduction. One such policy support mechanism is the use of local content requirements (LCRs) linked to feed-in tariffs. Policy makers are faced with a difficult choice as manufacturing interest groups lobby for the establishment of protection measures such as LCRs whilst the international trade community led by the World Trade Organization (WTO) seeks to limit their use. This difficulty is amplified by the limited information on the impact of LCRs on job creation and economic development. In this context, this article documents the use of LCRs in India's National Solar Mission and seeks to understand the conditions under which LCRs are an effective policy tool for building a competitive local manufacturing industry.     

A study on the dependency of GNSS pseudorange biases on correlator spacing

We provide a comprehensive overview of pseudorange biases and their dependency on receiver front-end bandwidth and correlator design. Differences in the chip shape distortions among GNSS satellites are the cause of individual pseudorange biases. The different biases must be corrected for in a number of applications, such as positioning with mixed signals or PPP with ambiguity resolution. Current state-of-the-art is to split the pseudorange bias into a receiver- and a satellite-dependent part. As soon as different receivers with different front-end bandwidths or correlator designs are involved, the satellite biases differ between the receivers and this separation is no longer practicable. A test with a special receiver firmware, which allows tracking a satellite with a range of different correlator spacings, has been conducted with live signals as well as a signal simulator. In addition, the variability of satellite biases is assessed through zero-baseline tests with different GNSS receivers using live satellite signals. The receivers are operated with different settings for multipath mitigation, and the changes in the satellite-dependent biases depending on the receivers’ configuration are observed.     

Fault‐controlled fluid flow inferred from hydrothermal vents imaged in 3D seismic reflection data,offshore NW Australia

Fluid migration pathways in the subsurface are heavily influenced by pre‐existing faults. Although studies of active fluid‐escape structures can provide insights into the relationships between faults and fluid flow, they cannot fully constrain the geometry of and controls on the contemporaneous subsurface fluid flow pathways. We use 3D seismic reflection data from offshore NW Australia to map 121 ancient hydrothermal vents, likely related to magmatic activity, and a normal fault array considered to form fluid pathways. The buried vents consist of craters up to 264 m deep, which host a mound of disaggregated sedimentary material up to 518 m thick. There is a correlation between vent alignment and underlying fault traces. Seismic‐stratigraphic observations and fault kinematic analyses reveal that the vents were emplaced on an intra‐Tithonian seabed in response to the explosive release of fluids hosted within the fault array. We speculate that during the Late Jurassic the convex‐upwards morphology of the upper tip‐lines of individual faults acted to channelize ascending fluids and control where fluid expulsion and vent formation occurred. This contribution highlights the usefulness of 3D seismic reflection data to constraining normal fault‐controlled subsurface fluid flow.