Implications of uncertain future fossil energy resources on bioenergy use and terrestrial carbon emissions

The magnitude and character of the global resource base of fossil fuels is a key determinant of the evolution of the future global energy system and corresponding fossil fuel carbon emissions. What is less well understood is the potential magnitude of impact of the availability of fossil fuels, due to the interaction with biomass energy, on agriculture, land use, ecosystems and therefore carbon emissions from land-use change. This paper explores these links and implications. We show that if oil resources are limited, then the consequently higher price for liquids induces both the use of coal-to-liquids technology deployment, but also enhanced production of bioenergy crops particularly in a business-as-usual scenario. This in turn implies greater pressure to convert unmanaged ecosystems to produce bioenergy, and higher rates of terrestrial carbon emissions from land use.     

An experimental investigation of convection in a rotating sphere subject to time varying thermal boundary conditions

Abstract

A series of experiments has been undertaken to investigate the onset of convection in a rapidly rotating fluid filled sphere. The boundary is subjected to a time varying temperature allowing the simulation of radial temperature profiles associated with internal heating. The system is similar to that treated theoretically by Roberts (1968), Busse (1970) and Soward (1977). It is found that Busse's modification of Roberts' linear analysis, taking into account velocity perturbations which are antisymmetric about the equatorial plane, provides a good estimate of the temperature gradient required to initiate convection. As observed in the experiments of Carrigan and Busse (1983) and predicted by linear theory, convection appears in the form of rolls or columns, aligned parallel to the rotation axis. As in earlier experiments, observed azimuthal wavenumbers are consistently smaller than predicted which we postulate to be a consequence of nonlinear effects. Owing to the presence of a centrifugally driven thermal wind, the predicted azimuthal drift of the rolls has not been observed.     

Basement framework and geodynamic evolution of the Palaeoproterozoic superbasins of north‐central Australia: An integrated review of geochemical,geochronological and geophysical data

A largely convergent setting is proposed for crustal, tectonic and basin evolution of the intracratonic regions of north‐central Australia between 1800 and 1575 Ma. The new geodynamic model contrasts with previous proposals of widespread extension during the Leichhardt, Calvert and Isa intervals. Local transtensional to extensional structures exist, but these are best explained by a combination of flexural, thermal and dynamic processes related to an active southern margin. The development of thick accumulations of sediments (superbasins) is linked geodynamically to interpreted active margin processes (subduction and magmatic arcs) in central Australia. A synthesis of geochemical data from the 1870–1575 Ma igneous units from the Arnhem, McArthur and Mt Isa regions of north‐central Australia confirms the intracratonic setting of these units and suggests that a long‐lived thermal anomaly was responsible for the generation of both mafic and felsic magmas. The geochemical characteristics suggest the igneous units are derived from the lithospheric mantle and are not typical rift‐ or plume‐related melts. A review of the U–Pb SHRIMP ages for the entire region demonstrates the minimum distribution of correlative igneous rocks was widespread. Exotic populations in the ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb isotopic data provide insights into the nature and evolution of the crust throughout north‐central Australia. Archaean inheritance is found to be nearly ubiquitous. The data support the temporal subdivision of north‐central Australia into the Leichhardt (1800–1750 Ma), Calvert (1750–1690 Ma) and Isa (1690–1575 Ma) intervals which are marked by superbasins and concomitant episodes of igneous activity. A highly heterogeneous pre‐superbasin crust is interpreted from regional, newly processed geophysical data. The cratonic portion of north‐central Australia is interpreted to consist of three broad northwest‐trending belts or elements that are further distinguished into western, central and eastern geophysically distinct provinces. A map of the superbasin distribution is derived and integrated with structural and stratigraphic data to assess the evolution of the basins and the crust through time. The superbasin successions of north‐central Australia are synchronous and widespread, although not necessarily interconnected. The tectonic model incorporates dynamic tilting of the craton during episodes of subduction and transmission of compressive intraplate stresses through the craton during intervening episodes of orogeny. These processes resulted in flexure, strike‐slip deformation and a complex thermal structure. These mechanisms account for the subsidence and basin evolution that results in widespread ramp and strike‐slip basins. The model also accounts for the thermal history recorded by magmatic events. The proposed geodynamical model provides a unifying crustal evolution scenario for central and northern Australia for approximately 225 million years of the Proterozoic.     

Changes in the planetary heat balance with chemical changes in air

By using the concept of an “equivalent radiative atmosphere” (ERA) we can obtain a reasonably correct representation of the greenhouse factor for a real atmosphere. This elementary model may then be used to estimate the temperature effects due to changes in the abundances of minor i.r. absorbers. This global-mean model also serves as a basis for extending the model to the zonal energy-balance type developed by Budyko and Sellers and treated analytically by North. With this simple modification of a radiative-equilibrium model, we can show that global heating has the more profound effect at higher latitudes. By requiring the relative humidity to remain constant, we show that the positive feedback in H₂O opacity is comparable to the initial change in opacity due, say, to a change in CO₂ content.     

The effect of net-transfer reactions on the isotopic composition of minerals

To interpret correctly the isotopic composition of metmorphic rocks and minerals, the effect of nettransfer reactions must be quantitatively evaluated. Such evaluation requires a complete set of linearly independent, net-transfer reactions that fully describe the reacting system. The set of net-transfer reactions is then coupled with mass-balance equations for stable isotopes. Reaction spaces can be contoured with isopleths of °¹⁸O, °¹³C, and D of minerals which allows evaluation of the effect of different reactions and bulk compositions on the stable isotopic composition of minerals and rocks. Using this approach, we examined the effect of fractionation of isotopes due to net-transfer reactions at the biotite and second-sillimanite isograds in northern New England. Our analysis shows that the shift in °¹³C and °¹⁸O at an isograd depends strongly upon the overall net-transfer reaction at the isograd and the bulk composition of the rock. The use of model isograd reactions to determine isotopic shifts, therefore, can lead to serious errors in the interpretation of isotopic data. At the second-sillimanite isograd °¹⁸O _qtz (quartz), °¹⁸O _kspar (K feldsdpar), and °¹⁸O _wr (whole rock) decrease by 0.5, 1.0, and 0.8 per mil, respectively. Quantitative evaluation of the effect of fractionation of isotopes by net-transfer reactions shows that: (1) the relative changes in oxygen isotopes across the isograd could be caused by distillation of fluids during develatilization reactions; (2) the magnitude of the observed isotopic shifts often differs by a factor of 2 from the calculated shifts due to reaction progress alone. The difference between observed and calculated shifts is attributed to either, differences in bulk composition between individual rocks, or, to isotopic exchange between minerals after peak metamorphism. At the biotite isograd the shifts in carbon and oxygen isotope values are different from predicted shifts caused by net-transfer reactions alone. This discrepancy suggests that fluids infiltrated the rocks during the formation of the biotite isograd.     

Serpentinization and alteration in an olivine cumulate from the Stillwater Complex,Southwestern Montana

Some of the olivine cumulates of the Ultramafic zone of the Stillwater Complex, Montana, are progressively altered to serpentine minerals and thompsonite. Lizardite and chrysotile developed in the cumulus olivine and postcumulus pyroxenes; thompsonite developed in postcumulus plagioclase. The detailed mineralogy, petrology, and chemistry indicate that olivine and plagioclase react to form the alteration products, except for H₂O, without changes in the bulk composition of the rocks.     

Assessing the significance of wet-canopy evaporation from forests during extreme rainfall events for flood mitigation in mountainous regions of the United Kingdom

There is increased interest in the potential of tree planting to help mitigate flooding using nature-based solutions or natural flood management. However, many publications based upon catchment studies conclude that, as flood magnitude increases, benefit from forest cover declines and is insignificant for extreme flood events. These conclusions conflict with estimates of evaporation loss from forest plot observations of gross rainfall, through fall and stem flow. This study explores data from existing studies to assess the magnitudes of evaporation and attempts to identify the meteorological conditions under which they would be supported. This is achieved using rainfall event data collated from publications and data archives from studies undertaken in temperate environments around the world. The meteorological conditions required to drive the observed evaporation losses are explored theoretically using the Penman–Monteith equation. The results of this theoretical analysis are compared with the prevailing meteorological conditions during large and extreme rainfall events in mountainous regions of the United Kingdom to assess the likely significance of wet canopy evaporation loss. The collated dataset showed that event Ewc losses between approximately 2 and 38% of gross rainfall (1.5 to 39.4 mm day⁻¹) have been observed during large rainfall events (up to 118 mm day⁻¹) and that there are few data for extreme events (>150 mm day⁻¹). Event data greater than 150 mm (reported separately) included similarly high percentage evaporation losses. Theoretical estimates of wet-canopy evaporation indicated that, to reproduce the losses towards the high end of these observations, relative humidity and the aerodynamic resistance for vapour transport needed to be lower than approximately 97.5% and 0.5 to 2 s m⁻¹ respectively. Surface meteorological data during large and extreme rainfall events in the United Kingdom suggest that conditions favourable for high wet-canopy evaporation are not uncommon and indicate that significant evaporation losses during large and extreme events are possible but not for all events and not at all locations. Thus the disparity with the results from catchment studies remains.