EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FRESHWATER ECOSYSTEMS OF THE SOUTH-EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO

The south-eastern United States and Gulf Coast of Mexico is physiographically diverse, although dominated by a broad coastal plain. Much of the region has a humid, warm temperate climate with little seasonality in precipitation but strong seasonality in runoff owing to high rates of summer evapotranspiration. The climate of southern Florida and eastern Mexico is subtropical with a distinct summer wet season and winter dry season. Regional climate models suggest that climate change resulting from a doubling of the pre-industrial levels of atmospheric CO₂ may increase annual air temperatures by 3–4°C. Changes in precipitation are highly uncertain, but the most probable scenario shows higher levels over all but the northern, interior portions of the region, with increases primarily occurring in summer and occurring as more intense or clustered storms. Despite the increases in precipitation, runoff is likely to decline over much of the region owing to increases in evapotranspiration exceeding increases in precipitation. Only in Florida and the Gulf Coast areas of the US and Mexico are precipitation increases likely to exceed evapotranspiration increases, producing an increase in runoff. However, increases in storm intensity and clustering are likely to result in more extreme hydrographs, with larger peaks in flow but lower baseflows and longer periods of drought. The ecological effects of climate change on freshwaters of the region include: (1) a general increase in rates of primary production, organic matter decomposition and nutrient cycling as a result of higher temperatures and longer growing seasons: (2) reduction in habitat for cool water species, particularly fish and macroinvertebrates in Appalachian streams; (3) reduction in water quality and in suitable habitat in summer owing to lower baseflows and intensification of the temperature–dissolved oxygen squeeze in many rivers and reservoirs; (4) reduction in organic matter storage and loss of organisms during more intense flushing events in some streams and wetlands; (5) shorter periods of inundation of riparian wetlands and greater drying of wetland soils, particularly in northern and inland areas; (6) expansion of subtropical species northwards, including several non-native nuisance species currently confined to southern Florida; (7) expansion of wetlands in Florida and coastal Mexico, but increase in eutrophication of Florida lakes as a result of greater runoff from urban and agricultural areas; and (8) changes in the flushing rate of estuaries that would alter their salinity regimes, stratification and water quality as well as influence productivity in the Gulf of Mexico. Many of the expected climate change effects will exacerbate current anthropogenic stresses on the region's freshwater systems, including increasing demands for water, increasing waste heat loadings and land use changes that alter the quantity and quality of runoff to streams and reservoirs. Research is needed especially in several critical areas: long-term monitoring of key hydrological, chemical and biological properties (particularly water balances in small, forested catchments and temperature-sensitive species); experimental studies of the effects of warming on organisms and ecosystem processes under realistic conditions (e.g. in situ heating experiments); studies of the effects of natural hydrological variation on biological communities; and assessment of the effects of water management activities on organisms and ecosystem processes, including development and testing of management and restoration strategies designed to counteract changes in climate. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

LA SECHERESSE 1976 EN FRANCE: ASPECTS CLIMATOLOGIQUES ET CONSEQUENCES / The 1976 drought in France: climatological aspects and consequences

Abstract

The author recalls the four classical definitions of drought:

• — pluviometrie drought, numerically characterized by a pluviometric ratio

• — climatic drought, depending on the potential water budget

• — agricultural drought, referring to the easily available soil water storage

• — hydrological drought, recognized by an anomaly in the water supply to the water courses.

The first two types are analysed with respect to the 1976 drought in France, and the results are plotted on maps. The meteorological causes of the drought are then examined, using data from Europe and North Africa. Finally the effects of the drought on surface water (groundwater does not appear to have been affected), river transport, pollution, hydroelectric power supply, and above all on agriculture, are given.     

Modeling the deglaciation of the Green Bay Lobe of the southern Laurentide Ice Sheet

We use a time-dependent two-dimensional ice-flow model to explore the development of the Green Bay Lobe, an outlet glacier of the southern Laurentide Ice Sheet, leading up to the time of maximum ice extent and during subsequent deglaciation (c. 30 to 8 cal. ka BP). We focus on conditions at the ice-bed interface in order to evaluate their possible impact on glacial landscape evolution. Air temperatures for model input have been reconstructed using the GRIP δ ¹⁸ O record calibrated to speleothem records from Missouri that cover the time periods of c. 65 to 30 cal. ka BP and 13.25 to 12.4 cal. ka BP. Using that input, the known ice extents during maximum glaciation and early deglaciation can be reproduced reasonably well. The model fails, however, to reproduce short-term ice margin retreat and readvance events during later stages of deglaciation. Model results indicate that the area exposed after the retreat of the Green Bay Lobe was characterized by permafrost until at least 14 cal. ka BP. The extensive drumlin zones that formed behind the ice margins of the outermost Johnstown phase and the later Green Lake phase are associated with modeled ice margins that were stable for at least 1000 years, high basal shear stresses (c. 100 kPa) and permafrost depths of 80-200 m. During deglaciation, basal meltwater and sliding became more important.     

Reconstructing middle to late Holocene sea‐level change: A methodological review with particular reference to ‘A new Holocene sea‐level curve for the southern North Sea’ presented by K.‐E. Behre

Baeteman, C., Waller, M. & Kiden, P. 2011: Reconstructing middle to late Holocene sea‐level change: A methodological review with particular reference to ‘A new Holocene sea‐level curve for the southern North Sea’ presented by K.‐E. Behre. Boreas, 10.1111/j.1502‐3885.2011.00207.x. ISSN 0300‐9483. A number of disciplines are involved in the collection and interpretation of Holocene palaeoenvironmental data from coastal lowlands. For stratigraphic frameworks and the assessment of relative sea‐level (RSL) change, many non‐specialists rely on existing regional models. It is, however, important that they are aware of major developments in our understanding of the factors controlling coastal change and of the potential sources of error in sea‐level reconstructions. These issues are explored through a critical evaluation of a new sea‐level curve presented by Behre (2003, 2007) for the southern North Sea. In contrast to most sea‐level curves published from this region over the last 20 years, the curve shows strong fluctuations that are interpreted as representing vertical movements of sea level. We present a detailed examination of the data used by Behre. From this analysis it is clear that many of the data points used are unsuitable for high‐resolution (centimetre or decimetre) sea‐level reconstruction. This paper also gives an overview of possible sources of error with respect to the age and altitude of sea‐level index points and of changes in our understanding of the processes that underpin the interpretation of the organic and occupation levels used as index points. The constraints on the spatial scale over which sea‐level reconstructions can be applied (changes in palaeotidal range and crustal movements) are also considered. Finally, we discuss whether the large‐amplitude centennial‐scale sea‐level fluctuations proposed by Behre can be reconciled with the known mechanisms of sea‐level change and other recent high‐resolution studies from this region. We conclude that such fluctuations are highly unlikely to be real features of the sea‐level history of the southern North Sea.     

Ecological Crises or Marginal Disruptions: the Effects of the First Humans on Pacific Islands

There is considerable debate concerning the effects of the first humans on the environments of the Pacific Islands. Much disagreement has arisen because of the differing techniques used to fix the time when the first humans arrived on particular islands. There is also considerable discussion about how stable, at a variety of timescales, Pacific Island environments were in the absence (or presence) of humans. John Flenley has proposed that archaeological dates significantly underestimate the times of initial human arrival on many Pacific Islands, the most accurate estimates of which come from palynological analyses. This paper offers some support to this view, from consideration of reef‐growth hiatuses in Fiji, yet doubts that initial human arrivals were coincident with ecological crises. There is considerable evidence that natural climate changes, particularly short‐term ones, caused major ecological and environmental disruptions on Pacific Islands, during both their pre‐ and post‐settlement histories, and that human arrival was marked in most cases by only marginal disruptions.     

Potential impact of climate change on marine dimethyl sulfide emissions

Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is a biogenic compound produced in sea-surface water and outgased to the atmosphere. Once in the atmosphere, DMS is a significant source of cloud condensation nuclei in the unpolluted marine atmosphere. It has been postulated that climate may be partly modulated by variations in DMS production through a DMS-cloud condensation nuclei-albedo feedback. We present here a modelled estimation of the response of DMS sea-water concentrations and DMS fluxes to climate change, following previous work on marine DMS modeling ( Aumont et al., 2002 ) and on the global warming impact on marine biology ( Bopp et al., 2001 ). An atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (GCM) was coupled to a marine biogeochemical scheme and used without flux correction to simulate climate response to increased greenhouse gases (a 1% increase per year in atmospheric CO₂ until it has doubled). The predicted global distribution of DMS at  1 × CO₂  compares reasonably well with observations; however, in the high latitudes, very elevated concentrations of DMS due to spring and summer blooms of Phaeocystis can not be reproduced. At  2 × CO₂  , the model estimates a small increase of global DMS flux to the atmosphere (+2%) but with large spatial heterogeneities (from −15% to +30% for the zonal mean). Mechanisms affecting DMS fluxes are changes in (1) marine biological productivity, (2) relative abundance of phytoplankton species and (3) wind intensity. The mean DMS flux perturbation we simulate represents a small negative feedback on global warming; however, the large regional changes may significantly impact regional temperature and precipitation patterns.     

Solute transport and water content measurements in clay soils using time domain reflectometry

Abstract

Clayey and saline soils have been shown to be problematic for time domain reflectometry (TDR) measurements. This study presents some of these problems and discusses solutions to them. Thirteen solute transport experiments were carried out in three undisturbed soil columns of swelling clay soil from Tunisia, labelled S1, S2, and S3 respectively. The columns were collected at three different physiographical regions within a catchment. Water fluxes ranged from 1.2 to 7.2 cm day^?1. The large solute transport heterogeneity and large tailing indicated that preferential flow was most pronounced in S1. The preferential flow took place in voids between structural elements and in wormholes. In S3, preferential flow was also evident, but not to the same extent as in S1. In S2, the solute transport was more uniform with little preferential flow. The heterogeneity of the solute transport increased with the water flux in S1 and to a smaller extent in S3, whereas it remained constant in S2. In a previous dye experiment in the field, preferential flow in cracks was observed at those sites where S1 and S3 were collected. In the column experiments, preferential flow in these cracks was less due to the higher initial water content compared to the dye experiments, indicating that the desiccation cracks were closed by the swelling clay.     

中美合作东昆仑造山带地质填图的启示：填图理念与填图方法

在中美合作东昆仑造山带地质填图实践的基础上,结合美国地质调查局（USGS）最近完成的地质填图实例的对比分析,初步总结和探讨了美国的地质填图方法和填图理念。结果表明,尽管地球物理和3S技术在地质填图中的应用不断推陈出新,但是地质填图理念、地质填图方法和地质报告风格自USGS成立以来未曾改变。“对所有地质实体按岩性进行划分和详细填图”的地质填图理念伴随USGS走过了130年曲折而艰难的历程。“地质现象引导地质路线”的填图方法是美国地质填图长期采用的方法,但应用于澳大利亚厚层风化壳和加拿大冰雪覆盖区的高精度地球物理填图方法并没有应用到造山带地质填图中,而遥感技术成为造山带基岩区填图的重要技术支撑。美国基岩区高效的地质填图速度并不能用高精度地球物理和遥感技术的应用来解释,已有地质成果的继承与利用、填图工作模式、填图与科学研究的合理定位、简明地质报告和GIS的地质应用才是决定地质填图速度的关键因素。     

A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE ON MULTIVARIATE CALIBRATION METHODS

This paper consists of two distinct but related parts.In the first part a geometric theory of generalizedinverses is presented and a methodology based on this theory is developed and applied to solve the K-matrix and P-matrix forms of Beer's law.It is shown that most currently accepted and practiced methodsfor solving these forms of Beer's law are just special cases of this geometric theory of generalized inverses.In addition,this geometric theory is used to explain why the current methods work and why they fail.In the second part a general methodology that includes as special cases least squares,principalcomponent regression,partial least squares 1 and 2,continuum regression plus a variety of otherdescribed and undescribed methodologies is presented and then applied to solve the P-matrix formulationof Beer's law.This general methodology,like the first,is also geometric in nature and relies on anunderstanding of projections.The main emphasis of this paper is one of perspective,which,if understood,provides the properfoundation for answering the general but extremely hard and possibly unanswerable question‘what isthe best method?’.