Downscaling extreme month-long anomalies in southern South America

We investigate the performance of one stretched-grid atmospheric global model, five different regional climate models and a statistical downscaling technique in simulating 3 months (January 1971, November 1986, July 1996) characterized by anomalous climate conditions in the southern La Plata Basin. Models were driven by reanalysis (ERA-40). The analysis has emphasized on the simulation of the precipitation over land and has provided a quantification of the biases of and scatter between the different regional simulations. Most but not all dynamical models underpredict precipitation amounts in south eastern South America during the three periods. Results suggest that models have regime dependence, performing better for some conditions than others. The models’ ensemble and the statistical technique succeed in reproducing the overall observed frequency of daily precipitation for all periods. But most models tend to underestimate the frequency of dry days and overestimate the amount of light rainfall days. The number of events with strong or heavy precipitation tends to be under simulated by the models.     

Towards the main sequence: detailed analysis of weak line and post-T Tauri stars

A detailed study was performed for a sample of low-mass pre-main-sequence (PMS) stars, previously identified as weak-line T Tauri stars, which are compared to members of the Tucanae and Horologium Associations. Aiming to verify if there is any pattern of abundances when comparing the young stars at different phases, we selected objects in the range from 1 to 100 Myr, which covers most of PMS evolution. High-resolution optical spectra were acquired at European Southern Observatory and Observatório do Pico dos Dias . The stellar fundamental parameters effective temperature and gravity were calculated by excitation and ionization equilibria of iron absorption lines. Chemical abundances were obtained via equivalent width calculations and spectral synthesis for 44 per cent of the sample, which shows metallicities within 0.5 dex solar. A classification was developed based on equivalent width of Li  i 6708 Å and Hα lines and spectral types of the studied stars. This classification allowed a separation of the sample into categories that correspond to different evolutive stages in the PMS. The position of these stars in the Hertzsprung–Russell diagram was also inspected in order to estimate their ages and masses. Among the studied objects, it was verified that our sample actually contains seven weak-line T Tauri stars, three are Classical T Tauri, 12 are Fe/Ge PMS stars and 21 are post-T Tauri or young main-sequence stars. An estimation of circumstellar luminosity was obtained using a disc model to reproduce the observed spectral energy distribution. Most of the stars show low levels of circumstellar emission, corresponding to less than 30 per cent of the total emission.     

Atmospheric circulation changes and neoglacial conditions in the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes: insights from PMIP2 simulations at 6 kyr

Glacial geologic studies in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) mid-latitudes (40–54°S) indicate renewed glacial activity in southern South America (Patagonia) and New Zealand’s (NZ) South Island starting at ～7 kyr, the so-called neoglaciation. Available data indicate that neoglacial advances in these regions occurred during a rising trend in atmospheric CO₂ and CH₄ concentrations, lower-than-present but increasing summer insolation and seasonality contrasts. In this paper we examine the climatological context in which neoglaciations occurred through analysis of the complete Paleoclimate Modelling Inter-comparison Project (PMIP2) database of simulations at 6 kyr for the SH. We observe that the amplitude of the annual insolation cycle in the SH did not change significantly at 6 kyr compared to the pre-industrial values, the largest difference occurring in autumn (MAM, negative anomalies) and spring (SON, positive anomalies). The simulated changes in temperatures over the SH respond to the insolation changes, with a 1–2 month delay over the oceans. This results in a reduced amplitude of the annual cycle of temperature and precipitation over most continental regions, except over Patagonia and NZ, that show a slight increase. In contrast, large-scale circulation features, such as the low and upper level winds and the subtropical anticyclones show an amplified annual cycle, as a direct response to the increased/decreased insolation during the transitional seasons SON/MAM. In the annual mean, there is a small but consistent equatorward shift of the latitude of maximum wind speed of 1–3° over the entire SH, which results in a small increase of wind speed over the South Pacific and Atlantic Oceans north of ～50°S and a widespread decline south of 50°S. PMIP2 simulations for 6 kyr, indicate that in the annual mean, the SH mid-latitudes were colder, wetter and with stronger winds north of about 50°S. These conditions are consistent with the observed neoglacial advances in the region, as well as with terrestrial paleoclimate records from Patagonia that indicate cooling and a multi-millennial rising trend in Southern Westerly Wind intensity starting at ～7.8 kyr.     

Deep high spectral resolution spectroscopy and chemical composition of ionized nebulae

High spectral resolution spectroscopy has proved to be very useful for the advancement of chemical abundances studies in photoionized nebulae, such as H II regions and planetary nebulae (PNe). Classical analyses make use of the intensity of bright collisionally excited lines (CELs), which have a strong dependence on the electron temperature and density. By using high resolution spectrophotometric data, our group has led the determination of chemical abundances of some heavy element ions, mainly O⁺⁺, O⁺, and C⁺⁺ from faint recombination lines (RLs), allowing us to deblend them from other nearby emission lines or sky features. The importance of these lines is that their emissivity depends weakly on the temperature and density structure of the gas. The unresolved issue in this field is that recombination lines of heavy element ions give abundances that are about 2–3 times higher than those derived from CELs – in H II regions – for the same ion, and can even be a factor of 70 times higher in some PNe. This uncertainty puts into doubt the validity of face values of metallicity that we use as representative not only for ionized nebulae in the Local Universe, but also for star‐forming dwarf and spiral galaxies at different redshifts. Additionally, high‐resolution data can allow us to detect and deblend faint lines of neutron capture element ions in PNe. This information would introduce further restrictions to evolution models of AGBs and would help to quantify the chemical enrichment in s‐elements produced by low and intermediate mass stars. The availability of an échelle spectrograph at the E‐ELT will be of paramount interest to: (a) extend the studies of heavyelement recombination lines to low metallicity objects, (b) to extend abundance determinations of s‐elements to planetary nebulae in the extragalactic domain and to bright Galactic and extragalactic H II regions. (© 2014 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Winter weather regimes over the Mediterranean region: their role for the regional climate and projected changes in the twenty-first century

The winter time weather variability over the Mediterranean is studied in relation to the prevailing weather regimes (WRs) over the region. Using daily geopotential heights at 700 hPa from the ECMWF ERA40 Reanalysis Project and Cluster Analysis, four WRs are identified, in increasing order of frequency of occurrence, as cyclonic (22.0 %), zonal (24.8 %), meridional (25.2 %) and anticyclonic (28.0 %). The surface climate, cloud distribution and radiation patterns associated with these winter WRs are deduced from satellite (ISCCP) and other observational (E-OBS, ERA40) datasets. The LMDz atmosphere–ocean regional climate model is able to simulate successfully the same four Mediterranean weather regimes and reproduce the associated surface and atmospheric conditions for the present climate (1961–1990). Both observational- and LMDz-based computations show that the four Mediterranean weather regimes control the region’s weather and climate conditions during winter, exhibiting significant differences between them as for temperature, precipitation, cloudiness and radiation distributions within the region. Projections (2021–2050) of the winter Mediterranean weather and climate are obtained using the LMDz model and analysed in relation to the simulated changes in the four WRs. According to the SRES A1B emission scenario, a significant warming (between 2 and 4 °C) is projected to occur in the region, along with a precipitation decrease by 10–20 % in southern Europe, Mediterranean Sea and North Africa, against a 10 % precipitation increase in northern European areas. The projected changes in temperature and precipitation in the Mediterranean are explained by the model-predicted changes in the frequency of occurrence as well as in the intra-seasonal variability of the regional weather regimes. The anticyclonic configuration is projected to become more recurrent, contributing to the decreased precipitation over most of the basin, while the cyclonic and zonal ones become more sporadic, resulting in more days with below normal precipitation over most of the basin, and on the eastern part of the region, respectively. The changes in frequency and intra-seasonal variability highlights the usefulness of dynamics versus statistical downscaling techniques for climate change studies.     

Impact of tropospheric modelling on GNSS vertical precision: an empirical analysis based on a local active network

The troposphere affects Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals due to the variability of the refractive index. Tropospheric delay is a function of the satellite elevation angle and the altitude of the GNSS receiver and depends on the atmospheric parameters. If the residual tropospheric delay is not modelled carefully a bias error will occur in the vertical component. In order to analyse the precise altimetric positioning based on a local active network, four scenarios in Southern Spain with different topographical, environmental, and meteorological conditions are presented, considering both favourable and non-favourable conditions. The use of surface meteorological observations allows us to take into account the tropospheric conditions instead of a standard atmosphere, but introduces a residual tropospheric bias which reduces the accuracy of precise GNSS positioning. Thus, with short observation times it is recommended not to estimate troposphere parameters, but to use an a priori model together with the standard atmosphere. The results confirm that it is possible to achieve centimetre-scale vertical accuracy and precision with real time kinematic positioning even with large elevation differences with respect to the nearest reference stations. These numerical results may be taken into consideration for improving the altimetric configuration of the local active network.     

A random solid‐porous model to simulate the retention curves of soils

This paper describes a random solid‐porous model capable of simulating the structure of porous materials. To this purpose, the grain and pore size distributions as well as the void ratio of the material are required. Solids and pores are distributed at random in the model's space according to a size strategy. Herein, the model is used to simulate the retention curves of soils. The Laplace equation is used to determine the size of the pores able to saturate or dry during a wetting or drying process, respectively. The continuous path principle is used to define those elements that effectively saturate or dry during these processes. With this procedure, it is possible to simulate the main retention curves as well as the scanning curves during wetting–drying cycles. Some experimental results reported in the international literature have been used to test the model. This model can be enhanced to study the mechanical behavior of unsaturated soils. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sediment transport patterns determined from grain size parameters: Overview and state of the art

Grain size trends have been applied in many diverse sedimentary environments to determine sediment transport paths, generally coinciding with information from tracer studies, current measurements and the orientation of sedimentary structures. The different methods proposed to date are critically analysed and compared with reference to recent field studies. It is concluded that the two-dimensional methods produce comparable results and may in fact complement each other.In spite of the advances, several problems still exist, which include the sampling method and density, the choice of trend types, the relative weight of grain size parameters and the interpretation of results. These are discussed together with possible solutions.     

Climate change and river floods in the European Union: Socio-economic consequences and the costs and benefits of adaptation

This study presents the first appraisal of the socio-economic impacts of river floods in the European Union in view of climate and socio-economic changes. The assessment is based on two trajectories: (a) no adaptation, where the current levels of protection are kept constant, and (b) adaptation, where the level of protection is increased to defend against future flooding events. As a basis for our analysis we use an ensemble-based pan-European flood hazard assessment for present and future conditions. Socio-economic impacts are estimated by combining flood inundation maps with information on assets exposure and vulnerability. Ensemble-based results indicate that current expected annual population affected of ca. 200,000 is projected to increase up to 360,000 due to the effects of socio-economic development and climate change. Under the no adaptation trajectory current expected annual damages of €5.5 billion/year are projected to reach €98 billion/year by the 2080s due to the combined effects of socio-economic and climate change. Under the adaptation trajectory the avoided damages (benefits) amount to €53 billion/year by the 2080s. An analysis of the potential costs of adaptation associated with the increase in protection suggests that adaptation could be highly cost-effective. There is, however, a wide range around these central numbers reflecting the variability in projected climate. Analysis at the country level shows high damages, and by association high costs of adaptation, in the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Romania, Hungary and Czech Republic. At the country level, there is an even wider range around these central values, thus, pointing to a need to consider climate uncertainty in formulating practical adaptation strategies.