Application du réseau des neurones artificiels à la prévision des débits horaires: Cas du bassin versant de l’Eure,France

RÉSUMÉ

Les modèles pluie–débit sont fortement utilisés dans la gestion des risques hydrologiques et la prévision des crues. Dans cette étude, nous présentons un modèle pluie–débit pour la prévision des débits horaires basé sur la technique des réseaux de neurones artificiels (RNA). Ce modèle a été développé et appliqué sur le bassin versant de l’Eure au Nord-Ouest de la France afin de dépasser les problèmes dus à la non-linéarité de la relation pluie–débit et à l’imprécision des données collectées. La création de ce modèle a nécessité plusieurs étapes pendant lesquelles nous avons pu déterminer les paramètres du modèle permettant la compréhension de la complexité hydrologique et la production des informations nécessaires à la prévision. Elles ont abouti à un modèle de réseau de neurones artificiels capable d’effectuer, en quelques secondes, des prévisions des crues efficaces jusqu’à un horizon de prévision de 48 h. Ces résultats confirment que les modèles RNA peuvent jouer un rôle important dans le domaine de la prévision car capables de modéliser la non-linéarité des relations pluie–débit rencontrées sur certains bassins hydrologiques.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz Associate editor E. Gargouri     

Diet of Haplognathia ruberrima (Gnathostomulida) in a Caribbean marine mangrove

Haplognathia ruberrima is a cosmopolitan gnathostomulid species found in sulfur bacterial mats in mangroves in Guadeloupe (French West Indies). Haplognathia ruberrima presents a δ¹³C value lower than all measured meiofaunal grazers and lower than the available measured food sources of this environment. This low δ¹³C value can not be due to specific ingestion of ¹³C‐depleted methanogenic bacteria because abundances of those bacteria are reduced in surficial and deep sediments as revealed by δ¹³C of bacterial fatty acid. According to scanning electron microscope observations, no bacterial ectosymbionts were observed at the surface of the gnathostomulids, and transmission electron microscope views revealed the absence of bacterial endosymbionts. Energy‐dispersive X‐ray spectroscopy analysis detected low levels of sulfur (0.32%±0.8) in biological tissues of H. ruberrima, confirming the absence of thioautotrophic bacterial symbionts in these animals. Consequently, the low δ¹³C value of H. ruberrima can not be due to the presence of sulfur‐oxidizing symbionts but more probably to the selective and exclusive consumption of free‐living, sulfur‐oxidizing bacteria.     

Trace element geochemistry of CR chondrite metal

We report trace element analyses by laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA‐ICP‐MS) of metal grains from nine different CR chondrites, distinguishing grains from chondrule interior (“interior grains”), chondrule surficial shells (“margin grains”), and the matrix (“isolated grains”). Save for a few anomalous grains, Ni‐normalized trace element patterns are similar for all three petrographic settings, with largely unfractionated refractory siderophile elements and depleted volatile Au, Cu, Ag, S. All three types of grains are interpreted to derive from a common precursor approximated by the least‐melted, fine‐grained objects in CR chondrites. This also excludes recondensation of metal vapor as the origin of the bulk of margin grains. The metal precursors were presumably formed by incomplete condensation, with evidence for high‐temperature isolation of refractory platinum‐group‐element (PGE)‐rich condensates before mixing with lower temperature PGE‐depleted condensates. The rounded shape of the Ni‐rich, interior grains shows that they were molten and that they equilibrated with silicates upon slow cooling (1–100 K h^?1), largely by oxidation/evaporation of Fe, hence their high Pd content, for example. We propose that Ni‐poorer, amoeboid margin grains, often included in the pyroxene‐rich periphery common to type I chondrules, result from less intense processing of a rim accreted onto the chondrule subsequent to the melting event recorded by the interior grains. This means either that there were two separate heating events, which formed olivine/interior grains and pyroxene/margin grains, respectively, between which dust was accreted around the chondrule, or that there was a single high‐temperature event, of which the chondrule margin records a late “quenching phase,” in which case dust accreted onto chondrules while they were molten. In the latter case, high dust concentrations in the chondrule‐forming region (at least three orders of magnitude above minimum mass solar nebula models) are indicated.     

S2O, polysulfuroxide and sulfur polymer on Io's surface?

To settle the question of disulfur monoxide and sulfur monoxide deposition and occurrence on Io's surface, we performed series of laboratory experiments reproducing the condensation of S₂O at low temperature. Its polymerization has been monitored by recording infrared spectra under conditions of temperature, pressure, mixing with SO₂ and UV-visible radiation simulating that of Io's surface. Our experiments show that S₂O condensates are not chemically stable under ionian conditions. We also demonstrate that SO and S₂O outgassed by Io's volcanoes and condensing on Io's surface should lead to yellow polysulfuroxide deposits or to white deposits of S₂O diluted in sulfur dioxide frost (i.e., S₂O/SO₂ < 0.1%). Thus S₂O condensation cannot be responsible for the red volcanic deposits on Io. Comparison of the laboratory infrared spectra of S₂O and polysulfuroxide with NIMS/Galileo infrared spectra of Io's surface leads us to discuss the possible identification of polysulfuroxide. We also recorded the visible transmission spectra of sulfur samples resulting from polysulfuroxide decomposition. These samples consist in a mixture of sulfur polymer and orthorhombic sulfur. Using the optical constants extracted from these measurements, we show that a linear combination of the reflectance spectra of our samples, the reflectance spectrum of orthorhombic S₈ sulfur and SO₂ reflectance spectrum, leads to a very good matching of Io's visible spectrum between 330 and 520 nm. We conclude then that Io's surface is probably mainly composed of sulfur dioxide and a mixture of sulfur S₈ and sulfur polymer. Some polysulfuroxide could also co-exist with these dominant components, but is probably restricted to some volcanic areas.     

Hydrothermal calderas

The standard model of caldera formation is related to the emptying of a magma chamber and ensuing roof collapse during large eruptions or subsurface withdrawal. Although this model works well for numerous volcanoes, it is inappropriate for many basaltic volcanoes (with the notable exception of Hawaii), as these have eruptions that involve volumes of magma that are small compared to the collapse. Many arc volcanoes also have similar oversized depressions, such as Poas (Costa Rica) and Aoba (Vanuatu). In this article, we propose an alternative caldera model based on deep hydrothermal alteration of volcanic rocks in the central part of the edifice. Under certain conditions, the clay-rich altered and pressurized core may flow under its own weight, spread laterally, and trigger very large caldera-like collapse. Several specific mechanisms can generate the formation of such hydrothermal calderas. Among them, we identify two principal modes: mode 1: ripening with summit loading and flank spreading and mode II: unbuttressing with flank subsidence and flank sliding. Processes such as summit loading or flank subsidence may act simultaneously in hybrid mechanisms. Natural examples are shown to illustrate the different modes of formation. For ripening, we give Aoba (Vanuatu) as an example of probable summit loading, while Casita (Nicaragua) is the type example of flank spreading. For unbuttressing, Nuku Hiva Island (Marquesas) is our example for flank subsidence and Piton de la Fournaise (La Réunion) is our example of flank sliding. The whole process is slow and probably needs (a) at least a few tens of thousands of years to deeply alter the edifice and reach conditions suitable for ductile flow and (b) a few hundred years to achieve the caldera collapse. The size and the shape of the caldera strictly mimic that of the underlying weak core. Thus, the size of the caldera is not controlled by the dimensions of the underlying magma reservoir. A collapsing hydrothermal caldera could generate significant phreatic activity and trigger major eruptions from a coexisting magmatic complex. As the buildup to collapse is slow, such caldera-forming events could be detected long before their onset.     

Volcanic edifice stability during cryptodome intrusion

Limit equilibrium analyses were applied to the 1980 Mount St. Helens and 1956 Bezymianny failures in order to examine the influence on stability of structural deformation produced by cryptodome emplacement. Weakening structures associated with the cryptodome include outward-dipping normal faults bounding a summit graben and a flat shear zone at the base of the bulged flank generated by lateral push of the magma. Together with the head of the magmatic body itself, these structures serve directly to localize failure along a critical surface with low stability deep within the interior of the edifice. This critical surface, with the safety coefficient reduced by 25-30%, is then very sensitive to stability condition variation, in particular to the pore-pressure ratio (r_u) and seismicity coefficient (n). For r_u=0.3, or n=0.2, the deep surface suffers catastrophic failure, removing a large volume of the edifice flank. In the case of Mount St. Helens, failure occurred within a material with angle of friction ~40°, cohesion in the range 10⁵-10⁶ Pa, and probably significant water pore pressure. On 18 May 1980, detachment of slide block I occurred along a newly formed rupture surface passing through the crest of the bulge. Although sliding of block I may have been helped by the basal shear zone, significant pore pressure and a triggering earthquake were required (r_u=0.3 and n=0.2). Detachment of the second block was guided by the summit normal fault, the front of the cryptodome, and the basal shear zone. This occurred along a deep critical surface, which was on the verge of failure even before the 18 May 1980 earthquake. The stability of equivalent surfaces at Bezymianny Volcano appears significantly higher. Thus, although magma had already reached the surface, weaker materials, or higher pore pressure and/or seismic conditions were probably required to reach the rupture threshold. From our analysis, we find that deep-seated sector collapses formed by removing the edifice summit cannot generally result from a single slide. Cryptodome-induced deformation does, however, provide a deep potential slip surface. As previously thought, it may assist deep-seated sector collapse because it favors multiple retrogressive slides. This leads to explosive depressurization of the magmatic and hydrothermal systems, which undermines the edifice summit and produces secondary collapses and explosive blasts.     

The use of transplanted cultured tropical oysters (Saccostrea commercialis) to monitor Cd levels in North Queensland coastal waters (Australia)

Bivalves are commonly used to detect metal pollution in the marine environment. Commercially cultured Milky oysters (Saccostrea commercialis) were transplanted in various sites along the North Queensland coast and analyzed for two metals of potentially anthropogenic origin (Cd, Zn). To provide additional information, naturally occurring Black Lip oysters (Saccostrea echinata) were also collected at the transplantation sites. The study demonstrated that the oysters species transplanted are good bioindicators of these metal concentrations in tropical waters, sensitive to variations in the environment at concentrations which are much smaller than pollution signals commonly reported for temperate waters. Three transplant experiments were carried out from May 1999 to February 2000. Milky oysters transplanted to offshore areas (Orpheus Is., Kelso Reef) accumulated Cd in the soft parts whereas oysters sampled from cages placed in Ross Creek and the Herbert River estuaries showed a decrease in Cd concentration, which resulted from an increase in dry weight. Dry weight appeared to be an important covariant affecting Cd concentration in the oysters whereas it does not unambiguously affect Zn concentrations. For the duration of the experiments, oysters sampled from the Magnetic Is. reference site showed effectively constant Cd concentrations and total Cd contents which indicates that any seasonal cycle affecting metal concentration is weak. It was found that Cd accumulation in oysters increased as ambient dissolved Cd concentration decreased, from which it was concluded that for these oysters, the predominant source of Cd was from the particulate phase rather than the dissolved phase.     

High‐resolution quantification of earthworm calcite granules from western European loess sequences reveals stadial–interstadial climatic variability during the Last Glacial

High concentrations of calcite fossil granules produced by earthworms (ECG) have been identified in most of the stratigraphical units along the loess‐palaeosol reference sequence of Nussloch (Germany). They are particularly abundant in interstadial brown soils and in tundra gley horizons, the latter reflecting short‐term phases of aggradation then degradation of permafrost. These granules are characterized by a radial crystalline structure produced in the earthworms by specific bio‐mineralization processes. In our study, we used this biological indicator combined with ¹⁴C and OSL dating, and sedimentological parameters to characterize millennial‐time scale climatic variations recorded in loess sequences. The approach is based on high‐resolution counts of ECG throughout a 17‐m‐thick loess sequence (332 samples). Strong increases in granule and mollusc concentrations suggest warmer climate conditions during palaeosol formation phases, associated with increasing biodiversity, biological activity and vegetation cover. Decreased granule concentrations occur within primary loess deposits, indicating a strong correlation with palaeoenvironmental conditions and demonstrating the reliability of ECG concentration variations as a new palaeoenvironmental proxy. Finally, this pattern is also recorded in loess sequences located about 600 km westward in northern France demonstrating the large‐scale validity of this new palaeoclimatic proxy.