Model estimates for the mean gas exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere under the conditions of the present-day climate and its changes expected in the 21st century

Annual mean fluxes of CO₂ and oxygen across the sea surface are estimated with the use of numerical modeling for several regions located in the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio zones. The present-day climatic conditions and the climatic conditions expected in the middle and at the end of the 21st century are considered. Specific features of gas exchange under a strong wind that are associated with gas exchange by bubbles and with changes in the air-water difference of the gas concentrations were taken into account in the calculations. The estimates obtained differ substantially from the results based on the traditional approach, which disregards the above features. A considerable increase in the absorption of CO₂ by the ocean, which is mainly caused by the continuing increase in the CO₂ concentration in the air during its small changes in the ocean, is expected in the 21st century. At the same time, no trends are revealed in the annual mean fluxes of oxygen across the ocean surface. The conclusion is made that, in calculations of CO₂ absorption by the world ocean, it is necessary to take into account both specific features of gas transfer under a strong wind and an increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO₂.     

Major variability modes and wind patterns over the Sea of Japan and adjacent areas

The expansion of wind fields observed at fixed times (four times daily) in complex empirical orthogonal functions is performed for the Japan Sea area (34°–53° N, 127°–143° E). The wind fields are taken from the 1998–2004 NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data with better spatial resolution (1° × 1°) than the standard product, which are publicly available on the Internet. Major modes of wind variability in the Japan Sea area are identified. The modes determine a general direction of air-mass transport throughout a year, zonal and meridional modulation, and a cyclonic and an anticyclonic eddy component. Objective classification of wind fields with respect to the prevailing flow direction is performed, and wind stress and wind-curl patterns are obtained for major events in the cold and warm periods of the year. The pattern obtained can be used in hydrodynamic numerical models of the general circulation of the Japan Sea.     

Water vapor in the atmosphere over the northern Tien Shan

Refined data of systematic measurements of total water vapor in the atmosphere from May 1980 to April 2005 are presented. The data were obtained at the Issyk Kul atmospheric-monitoring station by the method of solar molecular-absorption spectroscopy. Over 25 years, the annual mean water-vapor content in the atmosphere increased by 4.5% at a mean rate of increase of 0.18% per year. However, the water-vapor content decreased in the last five years. The results of statistical processing of experimental data (general statistical characteristics, correlation coefficients, composite oscillations) are described. A refined model is proposed for forecasts of temporal variations in the monthly mean and annual mean water-vapor contents for the coming years. The model includes a linear trend and the sum of oscillations with periods close to the periods of a number of well-known geophysical phenomena. Regression equations are proposed to relate the water-vapor content in the atmospheric column to the surface temperature and absolute humidity.     

Sources and biogeochemical cycling of particulate selenium in the San Francisco Bay estuary

As part of a study of estuarine selenium cycling, we measured the concentration, chemical form (speciation), and distribution of particulate selenium under various river flow conditions in the North San Francisco Bay (from the Golden Gate to the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers). We also conducted laboratory studies on the accumulation of selenium by phytoplankton, the critical first step in the transformation of dissolved to particulate selenium. Total particulate selenium concentration in the North SF Bay was relatively constant between high and low flow periods, ranging spatially from 0.05 to 0.35 nmol l⁻¹ and comprising between 5 and 12% of the total water column selenium inventory. Mean concentrations were generally highest in the Carquinez Strait–Suisun Bay region (salinity 0–17) and lowest in Central Bay. However, selenium content of suspended particles varied with river flow, with higher content during low flow (9.76 ± 4.17 nmol g⁻¹; mean ± sd; n = 67) compared to high flow (7.10 ± 4.24 nmol g⁻¹; n = 39). Speciation analyses showed that most particulate selenium is organic selenide (45 ± 27%), with a smaller proportion (typically <30%) of adsorbed selenite + selenate and a varying proportion (35 ± 28%) of elemental selenium. Based on the amount of elemental selenium in the seston (total suspended material), we calculate that resuspension of estuarine sediments could contribute 29–100% of particulate selenium in the water column. While selenium content of SF Bay seston (>0.4 μm) is relatively unenriched compared to phytoplankton (13.6–155 nmol g⁻¹ dry weight) on a mass basis, when normalized to carbon or nitrogen, seston contains a similar selenium concentration to SF Bay sediments or phytoplankton cultures. SF Bay seston is thus comprised of selenium-rich phytoplankton and phyto-detritus, but also inorganic clay mineral particles that effectively “dilute” total particulate selenium. Selenium concentrations in algal cultures (11 species) exposed to 90 nmol l⁻¹ selenite show relatively large differences in selenium accumulation, with the diatoms, chlorophytes and cryptophytes generally having lower selenium cell content (3.8 ± 2.7 × 10⁻⁹ nmol selenium cell⁻¹) compared to the dinoflagellates (193 ± 73 × 10⁻⁹ nmol selenium cell⁻¹). Because phytoplankton are such a rich (but variable) source of selenium, their dynamics could have a profound effect on the particulate selenium inventory in the North SF Bay.     

Physical and anthropogenic effects on observed long-term nutrient changes in the Irish Sea

The trend in Irish Sea nutrient concentrations over the last four decades has been considered to reflect changes in anthropogenic loading. Comparison of a long-term database for the Menai Strait, North Wales, with an established historic data set for the Cypris station, Isle of Man, indicates that climate also has a significant influence on observations of nutrient concentrations. Data are presented detailing long-term shifts in nitrate, phosphate and silicate measurements since the 1960s at these two fixed sampling sites in the Irish Sea. Broad systematic changes observed in all three nutrients over the decades show a rise from the 1960s through to the 1980s, followed generally by an overall decline in the 1990s. Decadal-scale salinity changes occur in the opposite sense to nutrient changes. Anthropogenic inputs from freshwater cannot fully account for observed nutrient trends, neither is there evidence for shifts in nutrient concentrations in oceanic waters over the past four decades. Climatically forced movement in the geographical position of the freshwater/seawater mixing zone over a decadal time scale could, however, give rise to the observed shifts in nutrient concentration and salinity. This cannot alter nutrient concentration and salinity per se, but causes the measurements taken at fixed sampling sites to fluctuate inversely over this time scale. It is concluded that there is complex interplay between anthropogenic loading and climate affecting the distribution of nutrients in the Irish Sea.     

Dynamics of climate extremes in northern Eurasia in the late 20th century

Changes in climatic parameters and in temperature and precipitation extremes in northern Eurasia in the late 20th century are analyzed. A spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation anomalies and of a set of indices of climate extremes is presented. Changes in climate extremes show a tendency toward a milder climate, mainly in winter. At the same time, the frost-free period has substantially decreased in the eastern, northern, and central parts of European Russia. In some regions during summer, there is an increase in the frequency of extreme events such as heavy rains, droughts, and sharp cooling. It is shown that the geographic pattern of present-day climate anomalies is linked to variations in the large-scale atmospheric circulation. The main mechanism of the current warming in northern Eurasia is a winter intensification of zonal flow linked to the increased frequency of positive anomalies of the North Atlantic Oscillation index.