Monitoring of the plume from the basaltic phreatomagmatic 2004 Grímsv?tn eruption—application of weather radar and comparison with plume models

The Grímsv?tn eruption in November 2004 belongs to a class of small- to medium-sized phreatomagmatic eruptions which are common in Iceland. The eruption lasted 6?days, but the main phase, producing most of the 0.02?km³ of magma erupted, was visible for 33?h on the C-band weather radar of the Icelandic Meteorological Office located in Keflavík, 260?km to the west of the volcano. The plume rose to 8–12?km high over sea level during 33?h. The long distance between radar and source severely reduces the accuracy of the plume height determinations, causing 3.5-km steps in recorded heights. Moreover, an apparent height overestimate of ~1.5?km in the uncorrected radar records occurs, possibly caused by wave ducting or super-refraction in the atmosphere. The stepping and the height overestimate can be partly overcome by averaging the plume heights and by applying a height adjustment based on direct aircraft measurements. Adjusted weather radar data on plume height are used to estimate the total mass erupted using empirical plume models mostly based on magmatic eruptions and to compare it with detailed in situ measurements of the mass of erupted tephra. The errors arising because of the large radar plume distance limit the applicability of the data for detailed comparisons. However, the results indicate that the models overestimate the mass erupted by a factor of three to four. This supports theoretical models indicating that high steam content of phreatomagmatic (wet) plumes enhances their height compared to dry plumes.     

Assessing Global Water Storage Variability from GRACE: Trends,Seasonal Cycle,Subseasonal Anomalies and Extremes

Throughout the past decade, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) has given an unprecedented view on global variations in terrestrial water storage. While an increasing number of case studies have provided a rich overview on regional analyses, a global assessment on the dominant features of GRACE variability is still lacking. To address this, we survey key features of temporal variability in the GRACE record by decomposing gridded time series of monthly equivalent water height into linear trends, inter-annual, seasonal, and subseasonal (intra-annual) components. We provide an overview of the relative importance and spatial distribution of these components globally. A correlation analysis with precipitation and temperature reveals that both the inter-annual and subseasonal anomalies are tightly related to fluctuations in the atmospheric forcing. As a novelty, we show that for large regions of the world high-frequency anomalies in the monthly GRACE signal, which have been partly interpreted as noise, can be statistically reconstructed from daily precipitation once an adequate averaging filter is applied. This filter integrates the temporally decaying contribution of precipitation to the storage changes in any given month, including earlier precipitation. Finally, we also survey extreme dry anomalies in the GRACE record and relate them to documented drought events. This global assessment sets regional studies in a broader context and reveals phenomena that had not been documented so far.     

Effects of sedimentary interfaces on fracture pattern,linkage, and cluster formation in peritidal carbonate rocks

The permeability of a reservoir is particularly dependent upon the proportion of its fractures that penetrate or are arrested at interfaces such as contacts and discontinuities. Here we report on fracture penetration and fracture arrest in Lower Cretaceous peritidal deposits exposed in the Pizzicoli Quarry, Gargano Promontory, southern Italy. We measured more than 2000 fractures, in the field and using LIDAR data, of which 564 fractures from the field and 518 from LIDAR studies are the focus of this paper. Fracture arrest/deflection and penetration depend much on the effects of peritidal cycle interfaces such as paleosol horizons, laminated carbonate mudstones, and stylonodular horizons. The laminated mudstones have the greatest effect; 63–99% of the fractures are deflected or arrested at such interfaces, whereas 63–90% are deflected/arrested at paleosols, and 20–35% at stylonodular horizons. In the mudstones, many fractures are arrested at thin, internal laminae, such that few penetrate the entire laminated layer, and fewer still the boundaries between the layers. Paleosol interfaces deflect/arrest more than 60% of all fractures. However, when small-offset fractures above and below paleosols are regarded as penetrating, they are evenly spaced (non-clustered), so that fracture-related fluid transport may occur across the entire paleosol. Stylonodular horizons deflect/arrest and split some fractures, but generally have little effect compared with the other types of interfaces. We present three main mechanisms for fracture deflection and/or arrest: (1) the fracture-induced tensile stress ahead of its tip, referred to as the Cook-Gordon debonding mechanism; (2) rotation of the principal stresses at and across the interface, resulting in the formation of stress barriers; and (3) large elastic mismatch (particularly as regards Young’s moduli) between layers across an interface. All these mechanisms are likely to have operated during fracture propagation and arrest in the carbonate rocks of the Pizzicoli Quarry.     

Loading of a seismic zone to failure deforms nearby volcanoes: a new earthquake precursor

The South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ) was loaded to failure in June 2000, resulting in two M6.6 earthquakes. The SISZ is an E–W‐trending zone with an overall sinistral movement. Numerical models indicate that, when the SISZ is loaded to failure, there are stress concentrations at its ends: tensile in the north‐east and south‐west quadrants, and compressive in the north‐west and south‐east quadrants. These model predictions fit well with observations. Geodetic measurements indicate considerable compression, uplift and associated intense seismicity in recent years in the volcanoes of Hengill and Eyjafjallajokull, located in the quadrants of compression, whereas there have been unusually frequent eruptions in the past decades in the Hekla Volcano, located in one of the quadrants of extension. The models predict that following the large June 2000 earthquakes, stress relaxation within the SISZ should lead to stopping of the intense seismicity and deformation in the volcanoes of Hengill and Eyjafjallajokull, again in agreement with observations. However, when similar episodes of deformation and seismicity start again, particularly in the Hengill Volcano, a large earthquake would be expected within several years in the SISZ. The numerical models, and the deformation and seismic data, indicate that monitoring of ‘soft’ inclusions such as volcanoes (many with magma chambers) in the vicinity of a seismic zone may serve as precursors to large earthquakes.     

The 1991 eruption of Hekla,Iceland

The eruption that started in the Hekla volcano in South Iceland on 17 January 1991, and came to an end on 11 March, produced mainly andesitic lava. This lava covers 23 km² and has an estimated volume of 0.15 km³. This is the third eruption in only 20 years, whereas the average repose period since 1104 is 55 years. Earthquakes, as well as a strain pulse recorded by borehole strainmeters, occurred less than half an hour before the start of the eruption. The initial plinian phase was very short-lived, producing a total of only 0.02 km³ of tephra. The eruption cloud attained 11.5 km in height in only 10 min, but it became detached from the volcano a few hours later. Several fissures were active during the first day of the eruption, including a part of the summit fissure. By the second day, however, the activity was already essentially limited to that segment of the principal fissure where the main crater subsequently formed. The average effusion rate during the first two days of the eruption was about 800 m³ s^–1. After this peak, the effusion rate declined rapidly to 10–20 m³ s^–1, then more slowly to 1 m³ s^–1, and remained at 1–12 m³ s^–1 until the end of the eruption. Site observations near the main crater suggest that the intensity of the volcanic tremor varied directly with the force of the eruption. A notable rise in the fluorine concentration of riverwater in the vicinity of the eruptive fissures occurred on the 5th day of the eruption, but it levelled off on the 6th day and then remained essentially constant. The volume and initial silica content of the lava and tephra, the explosivity and effusion rate during the earliest stage of the eruption, as well as the magnitude attained by the associated earthquakes, support earlier suggestions that these parameters are positively related to the length of the preceeding repose period. The chemical difference between the eruptive material of Hekla itself and the lavas erupted in its vicinity can be explained in terms of a density-stratified magma reservoir located at the bottom of the crust. We propose that the shape of this reservoir, its location at the west margin of a propagating rift, and its association with a crustal weakness, all contribute to the high eruption frequency of Hekla.