Comparative energetics analysis of CCM2 with different horizontal resolutions

 Comprehensive global energetics analysis is carried out for the NCAR CCM2 with different horizontal resolutions of R15, T42, T63, and T106 to assess the effect of various model truncations on the global energetics characteristics in climate models. Both the energy levels and energy transformations are examined over the zonal wave number domain during a northern winter and summer. In addition to the simulated atmosphere, the ECMWF global analysis during 1986 to 1990 is analyzed for comparison using the same diagnostic scheme. Previous studies have revealed that zonal kinetic energy is supplied by synoptic disturbances in terms of the zonal-wave interactions of kinetic energy. According to our result, however, such an energy flow from eddies to zonal motions is valid only for zonal wave numbers up to about 30. We find that the zonal-wave interactions of kinetic energy change sign beyond wave number 30 where the energy is transformed from zonal to eddies for both the ECMWF and CCM2-T106. The large-scale zonal motions are diffusive against the short waves beyond wave number 30, which may well be parameterized by various forms of the diffusion schemes. We suggest from this result that the atmospheric disturbances with wave numbers lower than 30 are necessary to represent accurately the two-way interactions between zonal and eddy motions, because these waves can actively influence the behavior of the zonal motions. Based on this finding, we suggest that the model resolution of R15 is inadequate for climate studies from the energetics point of view, and that resolution of T42 is the minimum requirement to represent the general circulation adequately. Some other discrepancies are discussed in detail for the coarse resolution climate models. Received: 15 July 1996/Accepted: 3 January 1997     

Effects of frozen soil and snow cover on cold‐season soil water dynamics in Tokachi,Japan

Despite the potential impact of winter soil water movements in cold regions, relatively few field studies have investigated cold‐season hydrological processes that occur before spring‐onset of snowmelt infiltration. The contribution of soil water fluxes in winter to the annual water balance was evaluated over 5 years of field observations at an agricultural field in Tokachi, Hokkaido, Japan. In two of the winters, soil frost reached a maximum depth of 0·2 m (‘frozen’ winters), whereas soil frost was mostly absent during the remaining three winters (‘unfrozen’ winters). Significant infiltration of winter snowmelt water, to a depth exceeding 1·0 m, occurred during both frozen and unfrozen winters. Such infiltration ranged between 126 and 255 mm, representing 28–51% of total annual soil water fluxes. During frozen winters, a substantial quantity of water (ca 40 mm) was drawn from deeper layers into the 0–0·2 m topsoil layer when this froze. Under such conditions, the progression and regression of the freezing front, regulated by the thickness of snow cover, controlled the quantity of soil water flux below the frozen layer. During unfrozen winters, 13–62 mm of water infiltrated to a depth of 0·2 m, before the spring snowmelt. These results indicate the importance of correctly evaluating winter soil water movement in cold regions. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The detectability of shallow slow earthquakes by the Dense Oceanfloor Network system for Earthquakes and Tsunamis (DONET) in Tonankai district,Japan

In order to understand the characteristics of shallow very low-frequency (VLF) events as revealed by recent ocean-floor observation studies, we perform a trial simulation of earthquake cycles in the Tonankai district by taking the characteristics of the 1944 Tonankai earthquake and assuming that slow earthquakes occur on numerous small asperities. Our simulation results show that the increase of moment release rate of shallower VLF events in the pre-seismic stage of a megathrust earthquake is higher than that of deeper VLF events. This increase may make leveling change due to VLF swarms detectable at Dense Oceanfloor Network system for Earthquakes and Tsunamis (DONET). We also introduce the time series of hydraulic pressure data at DONET, comparing with the leveling change expected from our numerical simulation. Since leveling change due to shallower VLF swarms is so local as to be incoherent, removal of the moving-averaged data from the data stacked by four nearby observation points in the same node may be useful to detect the short-term local leveling change.     

Orbit of periodic comet 153P/Ikeya–Zhang

The orbit of Comet C/2002C1 (Ikeya–Zhang) has a similarity to that of Comet C/1661C1 (Hevelius), and the numerical integration of the motion of C/2002C1 backward shows a possible linkage of those two comets. Thus, 153P/Ikeya–Zhang was designated a periodic comet. Historical records of comets in 877 and 1273 are also identified with Comet 153P/Ikeya–Zhang. The integrated orbital elements during 77 and 2362, and historical records of the comet are also presented and discussed.     

Stress field change around the Mount Fuji volcano magma system caused by the Tohoku megathrust earthquake, Japan

Crustal deformation by the M _w 9.0 megathrust Tohoku earthquake causes the extension over a wide region of the Japanese mainland. In addition, a triggered M _w 5.9 East Shizuoka earthquake on March 15 occurred beneath the south flank, just above the magma system of Mount Fuji. To access whether these earthquakes might trigger the eruption, we calculated the stress and pressure changes below Mount Fuji. Among the three plausible mechanisms of earthquake–volcano interactions, we calculate the static stress change around volcano using finite element method, based on the seismic fault models of Tohoku and East Shizuoka earthquakes. Both Japanese mainland and Mount Fuji region are modeled by seismic tomography result, and the topographic effect is also included. The differential stress given to Mount Fuji magma reservoir, which is assumed to be located to be in the hypocentral area of deep long period earthquakes at the depth of 15 km, is estimated to be the order of about 0.001–0.01 and 0.1–1 MPa at the boundary region between magma reservoir and surrounding medium. This pressure change is about 0.2 % of the lithostatic pressure (367.5 MPa at 15 km depth), but is enough to trigger an eruptions in case the magma is ready to erupt. For Mount Fuji, there is no evidence so far that these earthquakes and crustal deformations did reactivate the volcano, considering the seismicity of deep long period earthquakes.     

Topo-stress based probabilistic model for shallow landslide susceptibility zonation in the Nepal Himalaya

While dealing with slope stability issues, determining the state of stress and the relation between driving force and resisting force are the fundamental deterministic steps. Gravitational stresses affect geologic processes and engineering operations in slopes. Considering this fact, a concept of topo-stress evaluation is developed in this research and used to produce a shallow landslide susceptibility map in a model area. The topo-stress introduced in this research refers to the shear stress induced by the gravitational forces on the planes parallel to the ground surface. Weight of the material on a slope and friction angle of the jointed rock mass are the two fundamental parameters that are considered to govern topo-stress in this study. Considering topo-stress as a main factor for initiating shallow landslides, a GIS-based probabilistic model is developed for shallow landslide susceptibility zonation. An ideal terrain in central Nepal is selected as the study area for this purpose. Two event-based shallow landslide inventories are used to predict accuracy of the model, which is found to be more than 78 % for the first event-landslides and more than 76 % for the second event-landslides. It is evident from these prediction rates that the probabilistic topo-stress model proposed in this work is quite acceptable when regional scale shallow landslide susceptibility mapping is practiced, such as in the Himalayan rocky slopes.     

Regional extraction of flexural-toppled slopes in epicentral regions of subduction earthquakes along the Nankai Trough using DEMs

In the epicentral region of subduction earthquakes, large-scale landslides are triggered by strong shaking of slopes weakened by flexural toppling. The distribution of flexural-toppled slopes is the primary information for predicting and mitigating landslide damage beforehand. This study proposes and tests a simple algorithm for extracting flexural-toppled slopes on a regional basis from a 10-m resolution digital elevation model by windows of two sizes. Local relief is extracted with a large window (200 × 200 pixels), and microtopography is extracted with a small window (3 × 3 pixels). The algorithm was derived from the region of the Kanagi-kuzure landslide in Shikoku, and tested at Aka-kuzure landslide in Honshu in Japan. Both areas are underlain by strongly tilted sedimentary rocks in epicentral regions of subduction earthquakes along the Nankai Trough.     

Influence of housing and urban development on debris flow flooding and deposition

Debris flows form deposits when they reach an alluvial fan until they eventually stop.However,houses located in the alluvial fan might affect the debris flow flooding and deposition processes.Few previous studies have considered the effects of houses on debris flow flooding and deposition.This study conducted model experiments and numerical simulations using the Kanako2D debris flow simulator to determine the influence of houses on debris flow flooding and deposition.The model experiments showed that when houses are present,the debris flow spreads widely in the cross direction immediately upstream of the houses,especially when the flow discharge is large or the grain size is small.Houses located in the alluvial fan also influence the deposition area.The presence of houses led to flooding and deposition damage in some places and reduced the damage in others.The simulation also demonstrated the influence of houses.Both the model experiment and the simulation showed that houses change the flooding and deposition areas.     

利用尾波包络线反演方法研究伽师强震群区地壳的非均匀结构

以单次散射模型、球形辐射源、一维线性速度模型为基础计算理论包络线,通过尾波归一化方法把理论与观测包络线结合起来形成非线性方程组,用迭代最小二乘方法反演伽师强震群区的散射系数空间分布.结果表明,伽师强震群区下方中上地壳中存在明显的非均匀结构.在10~25 km各深度图像上,研究区中部都存在一低散射系数区,这个低散射系数区在10 km、15 km深度被高散射系数区包围,在20 km深度仅其东侧存在高散射系数区.1997年的7次M_s≥6.0级地震发生在研究区中部的低散射系数区内或低散射系数区向高散射系数区过渡带的低散射系数一侧.