A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities

In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario “thread” through the different climate research communities (climate change – vulnerability, impact, and adaptation - and mitigation) in order to support assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impacts. The scenario framework is organized around a matrix with two main axes: radiative forcing levels and socio-economic conditions. The radiative forcing levels (and the associated climate signal) are described by the new Representative Concentration Pathways. The second axis, socio-economic developments comprises elements that affect the capacity for mitigation and adaptation, as well as the exposure to climate impacts. The proposed scenarios derived from this framework are limited in number, allow for comparison across various mitigation and adaptation levels, address a range of vulnerability characteristics, provide information across climate forcing and vulnerability states and span a full century time scale. Assessments based on the proposed scenario framework would strengthen cooperation between integrated-assessment modelers, climate modelers and vulnerability, impact and adaptation researchers, and most importantly, facilitate the development of more consistent and comparable research within and across these research communities.     

Inverted-polarity electrical structures in thunderstorms in the Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Precipitation Study (STEPS)

Balloon-borne electric field soundings and lightning mapping data have been analyzed for three of the storms that occurred in the Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Precipitation Study field program in 2000 to determine if the storms had inverted-polarity electrical structures. The polarities of all or some of the vertically stacked charge regions in such storms are opposite to the polarities observed at comparable heights in normal storms. Analyses compared the charge structures inferred from electric field soundings in the storms with charges inferred from three-dimensional lightning mapping data. Charge structures were inferred from electric field profiles by combining the one-dimensional approximation of Gauss's law with additional information from three-dimensional patterns in the electric field vectors. The three different ways of inferring the charge structure in the storms were found to complement each other and to be consistent overall. Charge deposition by lightning possibly occurred and increased the charge complexity of one of the storms.Many of the cloud flashes in each case were inverted-polarity flashes. Two storms produced ground flash activity comprised predominantly of positive ground flashes. One storm, which was an isolated thunderstorm, produced inverted-polarity cloud flashes, but no flashes to ground. The positive and negative thunderstorm charge regions were found at altitudes where, respectively, negative and positive charge would be found in normal-polarity storms. Thus, we conclude that these storms had anomalous and inverted-polarity electrical structures. Collectively, these three cases (along with the limited cases in the refereed literature) provide additional evidence that thunderstorms can have inverted-polarity electrical structures.     

The marine controlled source electromagnetic response of a steel borehole casing: applications for the NEPTUNE Canada gas hydrate observatory

Gas hydrates are a potential energy resource, a possible factor in climate change and an exploration geohazard. The University of Toronto has deployed a permanent seafloor time‐domain controlled source electromagnetic (CSEM) system offshore Vancouver Island, within the framework of the NEPTUNE Canada underwater cabled observatory. Hydrates are known to be present in the area and due to their electrically resistive nature can be monitored by 5 permanent electric field receivers. However, two cased boreholes may be drilled near the CSEM site in the near future. To understand any potential distortions of the electric fields due to the metal, we model the marine electromagnetic response of a conductive steel borehole casing. First, we consider the commonly used canonical model consisting of a 100 Ωm, 100 m thick resistive hydrocarbon layer embedded at a depth of 1000 m in a 1 Ωm conductive host medium, with the addition of a typical steel production casing extending from the seafloor to the resistive zone. Results show that in both the frequency and time domains the distortion produced by the casing occurs at smaller transmitter‐receiver offsets than the offsets required to detect the resistive layer. Second, we consider the experimentally determined model of the offshore Vancouver Island hydrate zone, consisting of a 5.5 Ωm, 36 m thick hydrate layer overlying a 0.7 Ωm sedimentary half‐space, with the addition of two borehole casings extending 300 m into the seafloor. In this case, results show that the distortion produced by casings located within a 100 m safety zone of the CSEM system will be measured at 4 of the 5 receivers. We conclude that the boreholes must be positioned at least 200 m away from the CSEM array so as to minimize the effects of the casings.     

Derivation Of Refractive Index And Temperature Gradients From Optical Scintillometry To Correct Atmospherically Induced Errors For Highly Precise Geodetic Measurements

Refraction effects of optical beams are generally caused by an inhomogeneous propagation medium and are a major source of systematic errors in the precise optical determination of angles and distances in the atmospheric surface layer. In this contribution a method for deriving vertical temperature and refractive index gradients from optical scintillation is presented. Knowledge of these gradients is required for the compensation of atmospherically induced errors for highly precise terrestrial geodetic measurements, like direct transfer and levelling. The advantage of the present optical method is, that temperature and refractive index gradients can be derived as line-averaged values over the propagation path, which is not possible by meteorological point measurements. Field observations have been carried out with a displaced-beam scintillometer over flat terrain and under different atmospheric conditions in order to verify this method. The experiments show, that this method allows to derive accurate correction values for precise terrestrial geodetic measurements.     

Plasmaspheric hiss overview and relation to chorus

A brief overview is given of the history of plasmaspheric hiss research, particularly in the context of the recent work by Bortnik et al. (2008) indicating that chorus could be the likely source of plasmaspheric hiss. Previous suggestions given in the literature for this theory are reviewed and then the mechanism itself is outlined, focusing on the characteristic cyclical trajectories executed by typical ray paths that enter into the plasmasphere. A number of directional propagation studies performed in the past are then discussed as well as other work which bears relevance to the present mechanism.     

Evaluating Quaternary dating methods: Radiocarbon,U-series,luminescence, and amino acid racemization dates of a late Pleistocene emu egg

A whole emu egg, with infilling sediment believed to be coeval with egg laying and burial, was found in late Pleistocene lunette sediments near Lake Eyre, central Australia. The stratigraphic context and initial amino acid racemization (AAR) results suggested an age between 25 ka and 35 ka, ideal for a multiple cross-dating comparison. The sediment infilling the egg provided material for luminescence dating that minimized problems of association. Age estimations from AAR, ¹⁴C and U series methods were obtained from the eggshell and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) of the infilling sediment. All methods agreed within their respective dating uncertainties confirming the utility of all four methods. They indicate an age for the emu egg of 31.24 ± 0.34 ka.     

Stratigraphic evolution of an aeolian erg margin system: the Permian Cedar Mesa Sandstone, SE Utah, USA

The Permian Cedar Mesa Sandstone of south‐east Utah is a predominantly aeolian succession that exhibits a complex spatial variation in sedimentary architecture which, in terms of palaeogeographic setting, reflects a transition from a dry erg centre, through a water table‐controlled aeolian‐dominated erg margin, to an outer erg margin subject to periodic fluvial incursion. The erg margin succession represents a wet aeolian system, accumulation of which was controlled by progressive water table rise coupled with ongoing dune migration and associated changes in the supply and availability of sediment for aeolian transport. Variation in the level of the water table relative to the depositional surface determined the nature of interdune sedimentary processes, and a range of dry, damp and wet (flooded) interdune elements is recognized. Variations in the geometry of these units reflect the original morphology and the migratory behaviour of spatially isolated dry interdune hollows in the erg centre, locally interconnected damp and/or wet interdune ponds in the aeolian‐dominated erg margin and fully interconnected, fluvially flooded interdune corridors in the outer erg margin. Relationships between aeolian dune and interdune units indicate that dry, damp and wet interdune sedimentation occurred synchronously with aeolian bedform migration. Temporal variation in the rates of water‐table rise and bedform migration determined the angle of climb of the erg margin succession, such that accumulation rates increased during periods of rapidly rising water table, whereas sediment bypassing (zero angle of climb) occurred in the aftermath of flood events in response to periods of elevated but temporarily static water table. During these periods in the outer erg margin, the expansion of fluvially flooded interdunes in front of non‐climbing but migrating dunes resulted in the amalgamation of laterally adjacent interdunes and the generation of regionally extensive bypass (flood) supersurfaces. A spectrum of genetic depositional models is envisaged that accounts for the complex spatial and temporal evolution of the Cedar Mesa erg margin succession.     

Fluxes of Sr into the headwaters of the Ganges

Himalayan weathering is recognized as an important agent in modifying sea water chemistry, but there are significant uncertainties in our understanding of Himalayan riverine fluxes. This paper examines causes of the variability, including that of the seasons, by analysis of downstream variations in Sr, ⁸⁷Sr, and major ions in the mainstream, in relation to the composition of tributary streams from subcatchments with differing geologic substrates.Water samples were collected over four periods spanning the premonsoon, monsoon, and postmonsoon seasons. Uncertainties in the relative fluxes have been estimated, using Monte Carlo techniques, from the short-term variability of mainstream chemistry and the scatter of tributary compositions. The results show marked seasonal variations in the relative inputs related to high monsoon rainfall in the High and Lesser Himalaya, contrasting with the major contribution from glacial melt waters from the Tibetan Sedimentary Series (TSS) at times of low rainfall. Much of the spread in previously published estimates of the sources of Sr in Himalayan rivers may result from these seasonal variations in Sr fluxes.The annual fluxes of Sr into the headwaters of the Ganges are derived from the three main tectonic units in the proportions 35 ± 1% from the TSS, 27 ± 3% from the High Himalayan Crystalline Series (HHCS), and 38 ± 8% from the Lesser Himalaya. The particularly elevated ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios characteristic of the HHCS and the Lesser Himalaya enhance their influence on seawater Sr-isotope composition. The TSS contributes 13 ± 1%, the HHCS 30 ± 3%, and the Lesser Himalaya 57 ± 11% of the ⁸⁷Sr flux in excess of the seawater ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio of 0.709.     

GEOSECS AtlanticSi profiles

Measurements of five cosmogenic³²Si vertical profiles in Atlantic waters (27°N to 60°S) are presented. The amounts of dissolved SiO₂ extracted range from 2 to 54 g; the amounts of water from which SiO₂ was extracted range between 540 kg and 270, 000 kg. In additon, SiO₂ recovered from four surface particulate composites (64°N to 61°S) were also analyzed for³²Si.³²Si measurements were made by milking and counting the daughter activity, ³²P. The net³²P activities range from 0.7 to 6.8 cph; typical errors in measurements of the³²P activities are 20–30%.The³²Si concentrations vary from 0.6 dpm/10⁶ kg of water in the North Atlantic surface waters to 235 dpm/10⁶ kg at 400 m depth in the circumpolar waters. The vertical profiles of³²Si at the five Atlantic stations approximately follow the Si profiles but the depth gradients are different. This would be expected also considering the in-situ release mechanisms due to dissolution and advection/diffusion from the bottom waters. Except for the circumpolar station 89, where the Si and³²Si profiles show the effect of marked vertical mixing (nearly depth independent profiles), the profiles show the following features: (1) specific activities of³²Si (³²Si/SiO₂ ratios) are lowest at intermediate depths, and (2) on an average the surface specific activities are higher, by 2–4 times, than the bottom water values. These data are consistent with generation of the highest specific activity³²Si waters at the surface, where Si concentrations are lowest and precipitation adds cosmogenic³²Si scavenged from the troposphere. Rapid removal of biogenic silica to the water-sediment interface, without much dissolution during transit, leads to the second regime of high³²Si specific activities.The³²Si inventories in the water column in the latitude belt 27°N-27°S are in the range (1–1.4) × 10⁻² dpm³²Si/cm², which is consistent with the expected fallout of cosmogenic³²Si. However, the³²Si column inventories south of 40°S are higher by a factor of 5–7, whereas the corresponding Si inventories increase by only a factor of 3. This excess³²Si in the Southern Ocean cannot be explained by direct fallout from the stratosphere or by melting of Antarctic snow and ice. Instead, this excess is maintained primarily by the southward deep-water transport of³²Si dissolved from sinking particulates.     

Modelling of elastic damping in nonlinear time-history analyses of cantilever RC walls

Damping constitutes a major source of uncertainty in dynamic analysis and an open issue to experimental and analytical research. After a thorough review of the current views and approaches existing in literature on damping and its appropriate modelling, this paper focuses on the implications of the available modelling options on analysis. As result of a series of considerations, a damping modelling solution for nonlinear dynamic analyses of cantilever RC walls is suggested within the frame of Direct Displacement-Based Design, supported by comparative analyses on wall structures.