尼泊尔Ms8.1地震前我国西藏及周边区域的重力长期变化

根据1998~2013中国地壳运动观测网络、中国数字地震观测网络工程和中国大陆构造环境监测网络流动重力观测成果,给出了中国西藏及周边地区的重力年变率分布。结合青藏高原冰川消融和高原湖泊水位变化,估算了由陆地水储量变化引起的区域重力效应。基于50km平滑半径的高斯滤波,给出了测区内15a时间尺度的重力变化空间分布,并初步探讨了尼泊尔Ms8.1地震孕育的重力场长期背景趋势变化。结果表明:1)流动重力典型测点的时间序列表现出明显的线性变化特征,表明测点附近区域的长期重力变化以线性上升趋势为主,反映了区域重力逐年累积增加的背景效应;2)中国西藏及周边区域的重力长期变化在空间分布上具有显著的不均匀性和分区现象,这与青藏高原复杂的变形构造和动力学系统密切相关。喜马拉雅活动构造带在15a时间尺度上明显呈正重力变化趋势,可能与印度板块与欧亚板块存在的持续挤压变形引起的地下物质重新分布与调整有关,反映了大震孕育过程中地壳变形和介质变化引起的震区周围应力与能量的累积。     

Performance of the seasonal forecasting of the Asian summer monsoon by BCC_CSM1.1(m)

This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of Asian summer monsoon prediction skill as a function of lead time and its relationship to sea surface temperature prediction using the seasonal hindcasts of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model, BCC_CSM1.1(m). For the South and Southeast Asian summer monsoon, reasonable skill is found in the model's forecasting of certain aspects of monsoon climatology and spatiotemporal variability. Nevertheless, deficiencies such as significant forecast errors over the tropical western North Pacific and the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean are also found. In particular, overestimation of the connections of some dynamical monsoon indices with large-scale circulation and precipitation patterns exists in most ensemble mean forecasts, even for short lead-time forecasts. Variations of SST, measured by the first mode over the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans, as well as the spatiotemporal features over the Niño3.4 region, are overall well predicted. However, this does not necessarily translate into successful forecasts of the Asian summer monsoon by the model. Diagnostics of the relationships between monsoon and SST show that difficulties in predicting the South Asian monsoon can be mainly attributed to the limited regional response of monsoon in observations but the extensive and exaggerated response in predictions due partially to the application of ensemble average forecasting methods. In contrast, in spite of a similar deficiency, the Southeast Asian monsoon can still be forecasted reasonably, probably because of its closer relationship with large-scale circulation patterns and El Niño-Southern Oscillation.     

Investigation of the sulfur speciation during chalcopyrite leaching by moderate thermophile Sulfobacillus thermosulfidooxidans

The surface sulfur speciation of chalcopyrite leached by moderately thermophilic Sulfobacillus thermosulfidooxidans was investigated by employing scanning electron microscopy (SEM), X-ray diffraction (XRD) and sulfur K-edge X-ray absorption near edge structure spectroscopy (XANES), accompanying with the leaching behavior elucidation. Leaching experiment showed that there was an optimum range of the redox potential for chalcopyrite dissolution. Leaching products were found accumulating during the leaching process, which might be jarosite according to the XRD analysis. The sulfur K-edge spectra indicated that chalcocite might be the intermediate sulfur compound under a critical redox potential, which might explain the existence of optimum range of the redox potential and provide an evidence for the two-step leaching model of chalcopyrite at low Eh. In addition, the results of sulfur K-edge spectra showed jarosite would accumulate on mineral surface, which might be the main component of the passivation layer.     

Modeling and representation for earthquake emergency response knowledge: perspective for working with geo-ontology

Earthquake emergency response is one of the three earthquake disaster mitigation work systems in China, already achieving good results in some earthquake disaster mitigation situations. Earthquake emergency plans and emergency command systems are among the most important research and operations components of emergency response. These components commonly come with challenges, such as the pertinence of emergency commands and the operability of the countermeasures to be improved. The promise for solving this problem resides with applying knowledge that aids intelligence creation for decision-making. In this paper, we put forward a conceptual model of knowledge for earthquake disaster emergency response (EDER); compositions of EDER knowledge are introduced within architecture. A modeling method incorporating geo-ontology is used to build basic modeling primitives. Geo-ontology serves to represent geospatial characteristics of the EDER knowledge and addresses a need for semantic interoperability in the modeling process. A decision problem framework and a case study have been used as theoretical framework and an application test, respectively, to evaluate the EDER knowledge architecture and models. The EDER knowledge model provides a foundation for intelligent emergency response that helps solve knowledge problems to improve earthquake disaster response.     

浅谈如何做好为农服务类气象节目

文章通过分析农村受众对电视气象节目的心理需求,结合近几年内蒙古气象影视所开展的为农气象服务和自身工作体会,对如何利用影视平台做好为农气象服务进行探讨。     

环境因子对敦煌莫高窟洞窟水分蒸发的影响

环境因子对洞窟水分蒸发有重要影响.在敦煌莫高窟72窟蒸发水分的收集过程中,通过对窟内温度和湿度的控制,分析窟内温湿度对水分蒸发的影响及作用机理,并根据围岩水分蒸发机理,探讨影响水分蒸发的外部环境因子.结果表明,洞窟2.0℃的温度变化即可对水分蒸发产生显著影响,短期内蒸发量可增大1倍以上.温度高、蒸发量大,可导致窟内相对湿度增加,因此目前全球性的气温升高对洞窟文物将产生不利影响.敦煌地区降雨量的增加增大了空气潮湿过程激活壁画盐分的可能.莫高窟所处的地理位置、地热、地形结构、围岩孔隙度和洞窟结构本身对围岩水分蒸发有重要影响.本文从环境因素揭示了莫高窟壁画能够保存至今的关键原因,为今后洞窟文物的更好保护提供了新思路.     

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血管介入手术中的柔性虚拟力触觉系统研究

随着微创手术的发展,虚拟手术的应用前景越来越广阔.力反馈作为虚拟手术的核心技术,其实现的效果直接影响了虚拟手术的沉浸感.通过对经典包围盒碰撞检测算法进行研究比对,选择了球包围盒的碰撞检测算法,并建立了精确的反馈力计算模型,实现了介入血管中的柔性碰撞仿真.该仿真具有很高的实时性和精度.     

东准造山带原泥盆系的形成时代及源区：碎屑锆石U-Pb年代学证据

新疆东准地区晚古生代地层出露广泛,其沉积时限的精确限定对理解中亚造山带的增生和拼贴过程、确立该地区构造框架及油气开发具有深远意义。然而,目前的研究主要集中于岩浆岩方面,对于晚古生代地层时代及其空间展布的研究则相对缺乏,特别是石炭系和泥盆系沉积地层标定较为模糊。为此,本文选取了3个原泥盆系砂岩进行了细致的野外剖面测制、岩石学观测和碎屑锆石U-Pb年代学分析。研究显示：原泥盆纪砂岩的最年轻碎屑锆石年龄为346～312 Ma,碎屑锆石年龄谱图分为：380～310 Ma（晚泥盆世-早石炭世,71.8%）、445～385 Ma（志留纪-早-中泥盆世,11.7%）、480～450 Ma（奥陶纪,3.9%）、540～485 Ma（寒武纪,4.5%）和前寒武纪年龄段（8.1%）,碎屑锆石年龄谱图区域上具有由南向北、由西向东呈简单化趋势且晚古生代年龄比重增加。结合该区岩浆岩年代学研究成果,将研究区原泥盆系沉积时代重新厘定到晚石炭系早-中期,认为东准地区的碰撞拼贴时间应发生于晚石炭世,并非是不同期次碰撞拼贴之产物。     

黄河流域煤炭富集区煤炭水足迹演变及驱动效应研究

煤炭与水资源相互影响和制约,如何评价煤炭耗水的演变趋势及其影响机制对煤炭和水资源进行协同管理具有重要意义。基于国际标准的煤炭水足迹测算模型,分析2000—2017年黄河流域煤炭富集区——晋陕蒙煤炭水足迹的时空演变趋势,构建煤炭水足迹压力指数评价区域煤炭和水资源的匹配关系,并运用LMDI模型定量分析煤炭水足迹的驱动效应。结论如下：① 煤炭水足迹总量在研究期内呈增长趋势,主要以原煤和火力发电水足迹为主,山西和内蒙古煤炭水足迹最高,陕西最低。② 研究区整体煤炭水足迹压力指数逐渐增大,由煤–水关系缓和型逐渐演变为煤–水关系制约型,从空间分异来看,山西最大,研究期内均属于煤–水紧张型,陕西次之,内蒙古最小,均由煤–水关系缓和型演变为煤–水关系制约型。③ 影响煤炭水足迹的主要驱动因素是经济效应和技术效应,前者对煤炭水足迹的影响逐渐增强,后者对煤炭水足迹压力的影响先增强后减弱,各驱动效应空间分异明显。研究结果可为煤炭富集区煤炭和水资源可持续利用提供决策参考,为黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展的资源管理提供决策支持。