Hit or miss: Glacial incisions of snowball Earth

Estimated at ~58 Ma in duration, the Sturtian snowball Earth (ca. 717–659 Ma) is one of the longest‐known glaciations in Earth history. Surprisingly few uncontroversial lines of evidence for glacial incisions associated with such a protracted event exist. We report here multiple lines of geological field evidence for deep but variable glacial erosion during the Sturtian glaciation. One incision, on the scale of several kilometres, represents the deepest incision documented for snowball Earth; another much more modest glacial valley, however, suggests an erosion rate similar to sluggish Quaternary glaciers. The heterogeneity in snowball glacial incisions reported here and elsewhere was likely influenced by actively extending horst‐and‐graben topography associated with the breakup of supercontinent Rodinia.     

What do biphasic flow experiments reveal on the variability of exposure on alluvial fans and which implications for risk assessment result from this?

Sudden avulsions, unexpected channel migrations and backfilling phenomena are autogenic phenomena that can considerably change the propagation patterns of sediment-laden flows on alluvial fans. Once the initial and boundary conditions of the hazard scenario with a given return period are determined, the assessment of the associated exposed areas is based on one numerical, essentially deterministic, process simulation which may not adequately capture the underlying process variability. We generated sediment-laden flows on an experimental alluvial fan by following a “similarity-of-process concept”. Specifically, we considered a convexly shaped alluvial fan model layout featuring a curved guiding channel. As loading conditions, we defined a reference, an increased and a reduced level for the released water volume and the predisposed solid fraction, respectively. Further, we imposed two different stream power regimes and accomplished, for each factor combination, eight experimental runs. The associated exposure areas were recorded by video and mapped in a GIS. We then analysed exposure data and determined exposure probability maps superposing the footprints of the eight repetitions associated with each experimental loading condition. The patterns of exposure referred to the specific loading conditions showed a noticeable variability related to the main effects of the total event volume, the solid fraction, the interactions between them, and the imposed stream power in the feeding channel. Our research suggests that adopting a probabilistic notion of exposure in risk assessment and mitigation is advisable. Further, a major challenge consists in adapting numerical codes to better reflect the stochastics of process propagation for more reliable flood hazard assessments.

     

The anatomy of natural disasters on online media: hurricanes and wildfires

Natural Hazards - Increasing prevalence and scale of natural disasters fuel the need for new approaches to evaluating, and eventually mitigating, their impact. This analysis quantifies and compares...     

A New Natural Secondary Reference Material for Garnet U-Pb Dating by TIMS and LA-ICP-MS

Gem quality andradite-rich garnet (IUC-1), obtained from the Miocene trachyte dome near Ankara city (Turkey), has been identified as a potential natural secondary reference material for U-Pb dating. In this study, U-Pb dating was performed in five different laboratories using isotope dilution TIMS and laser ablation ICP-MS to determine the homogeneity of euhedral garnet crystals. The U-Pb ID-TIMS data for IUC-1 yielded ²⁰⁷Pb/²³⁵U and ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U ages of 20.9 ± 0.4 and 20.6 ± 0.8 Ma respectively, and these values are consistent with U-Pb LA-ICP-MS analyses, in which different garnet crystals yielded ages of 20.8 ± 0.1, 20.7 ± 0.1, 20.7 ± 0.2 and 20.2 ± 0.1 Ma. An andradite (IUC-2) from the Serçeören wollastonite skarn (Turkey) can be used as a secondary reference material provided detailed imaging of the crystals is undertaken. ID-TIMS data yielded ²⁰⁷Pb/²³⁵U and ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U ages of 20.4 ± 0.4 and 20.9 ± 1.0 Ma respectively, and yielded U-Pb ages on different grains of 20.5 ± 0.1, 20.7 ± 1.0, 20.8 ± 1.7 and 20.9 ± 1.6 Ma. The assigned weighted mean age of IUC-1 (20.4 ± 0.5 Ma, 2s) is proposed as a 2023 reference value. IUC-1 garnet is expected to contribute significantly to rapidly developing garnet geochronology in the near future.     

The resilience paradox: flooding experience,coping and climate change mitigation intentions

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency, intensity and unpredictability of extreme weather events across the globe and these events are likely to have significant mental health implications. The mental health literature broadly characterises negative emotional reactions to extreme weather experiences as undesirable impacts on wellbeing. Yet, other research in psychology suggests that negative emotional responses to extreme weather are an important motivation for personal action on climate change. This article addresses the intersection of mental health and functional perspectives on negative emotions, with a specific focus on the potential that reduced negative emotional responses to extreme weather may also translate to diminished motivation to undertake climate change mitigation actions – which we term the ‘resilience paradox’. Using survey data gathered in the aftermath of severe flooding across the UK in winter 2013/2014, we present new evidence indicating that self-appraised coping ability moderates the link between flooding experience and negative emotions and thereby attenuates the indirect link between flooding experience and climate change mitigation intentions. We conclude that support for flood victims should extend beyond addressing emotional, physical and financial stresses to include acknowledgement of the involvement of climate change and communication of the need for action to combat future climate risks.

Key policy insights

• Psychological resilience to flooding and other extreme weather events can translate to diminished motivation to mitigate climate change

• Negative emotional reactions need to occur at an optimal level to enable people to respond appropriately to climate risks.

• Flood victims’ subjective appraisal of their ability to cope does not necessarily encompass consideration of the role played by climate change. Therefore, support for victims of extreme weather should include explicit acknowledgement of the involvement of climate change and the need for action to mitigate future climate risks.

     

Mass and interior of Enceladus from Cassini data analysis

Gravity results are available from radio Doppler data acquired by the Deep Space Network during the encounter of the Cassini spacecraft with Enceladus in February 2005. We report the mass of Enceladus to be (1.0798±0.0016)×¹⁰²⁰ kg, which implies a density of . For a core made of hydrated silicates with a density of 2500 kg m⁻³ the core radius is ∼190 km and the quadrupole moment C₂₂∼1.4×¹⁰⁻³. If Enceladus is in hydrostatic equilibrium, the larger than previously anticipated density implies that the recently proposed secondary spin-orbit resonance cannot be present. Therefore, the source of endogenic activity of Enceladus remains unexplained.     

A procedure to analyze nonlinear density waves in Saturn's rings using several occultation profiles

Cassini radio science experiments have provided multiple occultation optical depth profiles of Saturn's rings that can be used in combination to analyze density waves. This paper establishes an accurate procedure of inversion of the wave profiles to reconstruct the wave kinematic parameters as a function of semi-major axis, in the nonlinear regime. This procedure is established using simulated data in the presence of realistic noise perturbations, to control the reconstruction error. It is then applied to the Mimas 5:3 density wave. There are two important concepts at the basis of this procedure. The first one is that it uses the nonlinear representation of density waves, and the second one is that it relies on a combination of optical depth profiles instead of just one profile. A related method to analyze density waves was devised by Longaretti and Borderies [Longaretti, P.-Y., Borderies, N., 1986. Icarus 67, 211-223] to study the nonlinear density wave associated with the Mimas 5:3 resonance, but the single photopolarimetric profile provided limited constraints. Other studies of density waves analyzing Cassini data [Colwell, J.E., Esposito, L.W., 2007. Bull. Am. Astron. Soc. 39, 461; Tiscareno, M.S., Burns, J.A., Nicholson, P.D., Hedman, M.M., Porco, C.C., 2007. Icarus 189, 14-34] are based on the linear theory and find inconsistent results from profile to profile. Multiple cuts of the rings are helpful in a fundamental way to ensure the accuracy of the procedure by forcing consistency among the various optical depth profiles. By way of illustration we have applied our procedure to the Mimas 5:3 density wave. We were able to recover precisely the kinematic parameters from the radio experiment occultation data in most of the propagation region; a preliminary analysis of the pressure-corrected dispersion allowed us to determine new but still uncertain values for the opacity (K?0.02 cm²/g) and velocity dispersion of (c₀?0.6 cm/s) in the wave region. Our procedure constitutes the first step in our planned analysis of the density waves of Saturn's rings. It is very accurate and efficient in the far-wave region. However, improvements are required within the first wavelength. The ways in which this method can be used to establish diagnostics of ring physics are outlined.     

Reconstructed droughts for the southeastern Tibetan Plateau over the past 568 years and its linkages to the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean climate variability

We present a Palmer Drought Severity Index reconstruction (r = 0.61, P < 0.01) from 1440 to 2007 for the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, based on tree rings of the forest fir (Abies forrestii). Persistent decadal dry intervals were found in the 1440s–1460s, 1560s–1580s, 1700s, 1770s, 1810s, 1860s and 1980s, and the extreme wet epochs were the 1480s–1490s, 1510s–1520s, 1590s, 1610s–1630s, 1720s–1730s, 1800s, 1830s, 1870s, 1930s, 1950s and after the 1990s. Comparisons of our record with those identified in other moisture related reconstructions for nearby regions showed that our reconstructed droughts were relatively consistent with those found in other regions of Indochina, suggesting similar drought regimes. Spectral peaks of 2.3–5.5 years may be indicative of ENSO activity, as also suggested by negative correlations with SSTs in the eastern equatorial and southeastern Pacific Ocean. Significant multidecadal spectral peaks of 29.2–40.9 and 56.8–60.2 years were identified. As indicated by the spatial correlation patterns, the decadal-scale variability may be linked to SST variations in the northern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.     

Greening the terrestrial biosphere: simulated feedbacks on atmospheric heat and energy circulation

Much research focuses on how the terrestrial biosphere influences climate through changes in surface albedo (reflectivity), stomatal conductance and leaf area index (LAI). By using a fully-coupled GCM (HadCM3LC), our research objective was to induce an increase in the growth of global vegetation to isolate the effect of increased LAI on atmospheric exchange of heat and moisture. Our Control simulation had a mean global net primary production (NPP) of 56.3 GtCyr^?1 which is half that of our scenario value of 115.1 GtCyr^?1. LAI and latent energy (Q _E) were simulated to increase globally, except in areas around Antarctica. A highly productive biosphere promotes mid-latitude mean surface cooling of ~2.5°C in the summer, and surface warming of ~1.0°C in the winter. The former response is primarily the result of reduced Bowen ratio (i.e. increased production of Q _E) in combination with small increases in planetary albedo. Response in winter temperature is likely due to decreased planetary albedo that in turn permits a greater amount of solar radiation to reach the Earth’s surface. Energy balance calculations show that between 75° and 90°N latitude, an additional 2.4 Wm^?2 of surface heat must be advected into the region to maintain energy balance, and ultimately causes high northern latitudes to warm by up to 3°C. We postulate that large increases in Q _E promoted by increased growth of terrestrial vegetation could contribute to greater surface-to-atmosphere exchange and convection. Our high growth simulation shows that convective rainfall substantially increases across three latitudinal bands relative to Control; in the tropics, across the monsoonal belt, and in mid-latitude temperate regions. Our theoretical research has implications for applied climatology; in the modeling of past “hot-house” climates, in explaining the greening of northern latitudes in modern-day times, and for predicting future changes in surface temperature with continued increases in atmospheric CO₂.