Anisotropic damage of rock joints during cyclic loading: constitutive framework and numerical integration

This work describes a constitutive framework for modeling the behavior of rough joints under cyclic loading. Particular attention is paid to the intrinsic links between dilatancy, surface degradation, and mobilized shear strength. The framework also accounts for the important effect of shear‐induced anisotropy. The resulting approach is fully three‐dimensional and is not restricted to plane‐displacement kinematics. Both the governing formulation and an algorithm for implicit numerical integration are presented. While the proposed methods are general, we also postulate a specific model that is compared with experimental data. It employs relatively few free parameters but shows good agreement with laboratory tests. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

New mineral activity–composition relations for thermodynamic calculations in metapelitic systems

New activity–composition (a–x) relations for minerals commonly occurring in metapelites are presented for use with the internally consistent thermodynamic dataset of Holland & Powell ( 2011 , Journal of Metamorphic Geology, 29 , 333–383). The a–x relations include a broader consideration of Fe₂O₃ in minerals, changes to the formalism of several phases and order–disorder in all ferromagnesian minerals where Fe–Mg mixing occurs on multiple sites. The a–x relations for chlorite, biotite, garnet, chloritoid, staurolite, cordierite, orthopyroxene, muscovite, paragonite and margarite have been substantially reparameterized using the approach outlined in the companion paper in this issue. For the first time, the entire set of a–x relations for the common ferromagnesian minerals in metapelitic rocks is parameterized simultaneously, with attention paid to ensuring that they can be used together to calculate phase diagrams of geologically appropriate topology. The a–x relations developed are for use in the Na₂O–CaO–K₂O–FeO–MgO–Al₂O₃–SiO₂–H₂O–TiO₂–O₂ (NCKFMASHTO) system for both subsolidus and suprasolidus conditions. Petrogenetic grids in KFMASH and KFMASHTO are similar in topology to those produced with earlier end‐member datasets and a–x relations, but with some notable differences. In particular, in subsolidus equilibria, the FeO/(FeO + MgO) of garnet is now greater than in coexisting staurolite, bringing a number of key staurolite‐bearing equilibria into better agreement with inferences from field and petrographic observations. Furthermore, the addition of Fe³⁺ and Ti to a number of silicate phases allows more plausible equilibria to be calculated in relevant systems. Pseudosections calculated with the new a–x relations are also topologically similar to equivalent diagrams using earlier a–x relations, although with many low variance fields shifting in P–T space to somewhat lower pressure conditions.     

Fluvial archives as a framework for the Lower and Middle Palaeolithic: patterns of British artefact distribution and potential chronological implications

With the adoption of an ‘expanded chronology’ for the Middle Pleistocene, based on the greater number of warm and cold episodes evident in the marine oxygen isotope record from deep ocean cores, has come the recognition of a meaningful progression of artefact types, something that could not be achieved with reference to the previous ‘compressed chronology’. In Britain, at least, it has been established that Levallois knapping techniques appeared in MIS 9–8, that bout coupé handaxes are indicative of MIS 3 and, rather more tentatively, that assemblages with twisted ovate handaxes in significant numbers represent MIS 11 occupation. Added to these key markers, it is now possible to suggest that further tool types occur preferentially in deposits of particular age: assemblages with significant proportions of cleavers and ‘ficron’ handaxes appear to be correlated with deposits formed at around the time of the MIS 9 interglacial. This newly recognized patterning within the Lower and Middle Palaeolithic record differs markedly from the previous use, in the mid‐20th century, of archaeological typology as a means of dating Pleistocene sequences, which was based on a relative refinement of tool making that is now recognized to be unrelated to age. Indeed, the authors would wish to emphasize that, even with reference to the new scheme presented here, the archaeological record should only be seen as dating evidence ‘of last resort’.     

Deep uncertainty in long-term hurricane risk: Scenario generation and implications for future climate experiments

Current projections of long-term trends in Atlantic hurricane activity due to climate change are deeply uncertain, both in magnitude and sign. This creates challenges for adaptation planning in exposed coastal communities. We present a framework to support the interpretation of current long-term tropical cyclone projections, which accommodates the nature of the uncertainty and aims to facilitate robust decision making using the information that is available today. The framework is populated with projections taken from the recent literature to develop a set of scenarios of long-term hurricane hazard. Hazard scenarios are then used to generate risk scenarios for Florida using a coupled climate–catastrophe modeling approach. The scenarios represent a broad range of plausible futures; from wind-related hurricane losses in Florida halving by the end of the century to more than a four-fold increase due to climate change alone. We suggest that it is not possible, based on current evidence, to meaningfully quantify the relative confidence of each scenario. The analyses also suggest that natural variability is likely to be the dominant driver of the level and volatility of wind-related risk over the coming decade; however, under the highest scenario, the superposition of this natural variability and anthropogenic climate change could mean notably increased levels of risk within the decade. Finally, we present a series of analyses to better understand the relative adequacy of the different models that underpin the scenarios and draw conclusions for the design of future climate science and modeling experiments to be most informative for adaptation.     

Hydrology and geomorphology of the Upper White Nile lakes and their relevance for water resources management in the Nile basin

Remote sensing data and digital elevation models were utilized to extract the catchment hydrological parameters and to delineate storage areas for the Ugandan Equatorial Lakes region. Available rainfall/discharge data are integrated with these morphometric data to construct a hydrological model that simulates the water balance of the different interconnected basins and enables the impact of potential management options to be examined. The total annual discharges of the basins are generally very low (less than 7% of the total annual rainfall). The basin of the shallow (5 m deep) Lake Kioga makes only a minor hydrological contribution compared with other Equatorial Lakes, because most of the overflow from Lake Victoria basin into Lake Kioga is lost by evaporation and evapotranspiration. The discharge from Lake Kioga could be significantly increased by draining the swamps through dredging and deepening certain channel reaches. Development of hydropower dams on the Equatorial Lakes will have an adverse impact on the annual water discharge downstream, including the occasional reduction of flow required for filling up to designed storage capacities and permanently increasing the surface areas of water that is exposed to evaporation. On the basis of modelling studies, alternative sites are proposed for hydropower development and water storage schemes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

In situ high-temperature X-ray diffraction and spectroscopic study of fibroferrite,FeOH(SO<Subscript>4</Subscript>)·5H<Subscript>2</Subscript>O

The thermal dehydration process of fibroferrite, FeOH(SO₄)·5H₂O, a secondary iron-bearing hydrous sulfate, was investigated by in situ high-temperature synchrotron X-ray powder diffraction (HT-XRPD), in situ high-temperature Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (HT-FTIR) and thermal analysis (TGA-DTA) combined with evolved gas mass spectrometry. The data analysis allowed the determination of the stability fields and the reaction paths for this mineral as well as characterization of its high-temperature products. Five main endothermic peaks are observed in the DTA curve collected from room T up to 800 °C. Mass spectrometry of gases evolved during thermogravimetric analysis confirms that the first four mass loss steps are due to water emission, while the fifth is due to a dehydroxylation process; the final step is due to the decomposition of the remaining sulfate ion. The temperature behavior of the different phases occurring during the heating process was analyzed, and the induced structural changes are discussed. In particular, the crystal structure of a new phase, FeOH(SO₄)·4H₂O, appearing at about 80 °C due to release of one interstitial H₂O molecule, was solved by ab initio real-space and reciprocal-space methods. This study contributes to further understanding of the dehydration mechanism and thermal stability of secondary sulfate minerals.     

Tidal Habitats Support Large Numbers of Invasive Blue Catfish in a Chesapeake Bay Subestuary

The introduction of a non-native freshwater fish, blue catfish Ictalurus furcatus, in tributaries of Chesapeake Bay resulted in the establishment of fisheries and in the expansion of the population into brackish habitats. Blue catfish are an invasive species in the Chesapeake Bay region, and efforts are underway to limit their impacts on native communities. Key characteristics of the population (population size, survival rates) are unknown, but such knowledge is useful in understanding the impact of blue catfish in estuarine systems. We estimated population size and survival rates of blue catfish in tidal habitats of the James River subestuary. We tagged 34,252 blue catfish during July–August 2012 and 2013; information from live recaptures (n = 1177) and dead recoveries (n = 279) were used to estimate annual survival rates and population size using Barker’s Model in a Robust Design and allowing for heterogeneity in detection probabilities. The blue catfish population in the 12-km study area was estimated to be 1.6 million fish in 2013 (95% confidence interval [CI] adjusted for overdispersion: 926,307–2,914,208 fish). Annual apparent survival rate estimates were low: 0.16 (95% CI 0.10–0.24) in 2012–2013 and 0.44 (95% CI 0.31–0.58) in 2013–2014 and represent losses from the population through mortality, permanent emigration, or both. The tagged fish included individuals that were large enough to exhibit piscivory and represented size classes that are likely to colonize estuarine habitats. The large population size that we estimated was unexpected for a freshwater fish in tidal habitats and highlights the need to effectively manage such species.