The Vulnerability of the Australian Beef Industry to Impacts of the Cattle Tick (Boophilus microplus) under Climate Change

An integrated assessment is presented of the potential impacts of the cattle tick (Boophilus microplus Canestrini) on the Australian beefindustry under climate change. The project was carried out as a case study to test an impact assessment approach that was designed to integrate biological, production and socio-economic impacts on managed and natural systems. A climate-driven, tick population model was run for European, zebu and crossbred cattle breeds having different levels of resistance to cattle ticks. A geographical information system (GIS) was used to organise spatial data on climate scenarios and industry statistics and to undertake regional analyses.A comparison was made of the two available approaches to conducting impact assessments, namely a bottom-up approach using sensitivity analysis and a top-down approach using climate change scenarios from a global circulation model (GCM) (CSIRO, 1996). The output, in terms of the abundance of tick populations and reductions in cattle productivity for each breed showed significant expansions in potential geographical impacts. In the absence of any adaptation measures, the results indicated changes in the losses in live weight gain of cattle tick ranging from 7780 tonnes per year by 2030 to 21637 tonnes per year by 2100, in comparison with estimates for current losses of 6594 tonnes per year.The principal adaptation options available to the beef industry are to switch to breeds that are more resistant to cattle ticks, or to increase the frequency of treatments with various tick control products. In this paper we focus on switching breeds as an adaptive measure when appropriate damage thresholds are triggered under the climate change scenarios. When adaptation measures were put in place, the losses ranged from 4962 tonnes in 2030 to 5619 tonnes in 2100 compared with 2636 tonnes at present if all producers adopted the optimal breed structure. Optimal breed structure was defined as one that would prevent tick numbers per animal exceeding 100 ticks per animal for European and 700 ticks per animal for crossbred breeds of cattle in any week of the year under a tick control strategy that was suitable for present climatic conditions. The lower threshold for European breeds reflects their vulnerability to explosive increases in numbers because of their low resistance to ticks. The results of the analyses using the GCM scenarios were used in an economic model to calculate costs of lost live-weight gain for 2030, 2070 and 2100. The greatest increases in costs were incurred in the southern parts of the current distribution in Queensland and potentially in northern New South Wales if the present quarantine barrier failed.Given the great uncertainty of the nature of possible regional changes in climate, analyses of the sensitivity of losses in live weight gain to changes in climatic variables were also undertaken. The analyses included a measure of likely impacts of cattle tick on the beef cattle industry, in the absence of adaptation measures, as a baseline measure of sensitivity. The likely impacts on crossbred cattle were insensitive to the climatic variables.When adaptive breed changes were allowed, the economic impacts on the industry were insensitive to the GCM scenarios. This suggests that, at least in this instance, reducing the uncertainties in climate change scenarios is not a priority if the adaptation strategies can be implemented in a cost-effective manner. Finally we made a qualitative assessment of the sustainability and robustness of alternative approaches to adaptation and assessed regional vulnerability to cattle tick under climate change. The conclusions were so strongly dependent on assumptions about the future of other global changes, in particular the ability to maintain quarantine barriers and to retain effective acaricides at comparable costs to the present, that we strongly recommend that risk assessments of climate change extend to all relevant variables in involved in global change where possible.     

THE PROVENANCE OF THE DHARAMSALA FORMATION

THE PROVENANCE OF THE DHARAMSALA FORMATION1　NajmanY ,GarzantiE .ReconstructingearlyHimalayantectonicevolutionandpaleogeographyfromTertiaryforelandbasinsediments,NorthernIndia[J].GSABulletin ,2 0 0 0 .inpress 2　OliverGJH ,JohnsonMRW ,FallickAE .AgeofmetamorphismintheLesserHimalayaandthemainCentralThrustzone ,GarhwalIndia :resultsofillitecrystallinity ,4 0 Ar 3 9ArfusionandK Arstudies[J].GeolMag 1995 ,132 (2 ) :139～149. 3　PognanteU ,CastelliD ,BennaP ,eta…     

High‐grade metamorphism and partial melting in Archean composite grey gneiss complexes

Much of the exposed Archean crust is composed of composite gneiss which includes a large proportion of intermediate to tonalitic material. These gneiss terranes were typically metamorphosed to amphibolite to granulite facies conditions, with evidence for substantial partial melting at higher grade. Recently published activity–composition (a?x) models for partial melting of metabasic to intermediate compositions allows calculation of the stable metamorphic minerals, melt production and melt composition in such rocks for the first time. Calculated P?T pseudosections are presented for six bulk rock compositions taken from the literature, comprising two metabasic compositions, two intermediate/dioritic compositions and two tonalitic compositions. This range of bulk compositions captures much of the diversity of rock types found in Archean banded gneiss terranes, enabling us to present an overview of metamorphism and partial melting in such terranes. If such rocks are fluid saturated at the solidus, they first begin to melt in the upper amphibolite facies. However, at such conditions, very little (< 5%) melt is produced and this melt is granitic in composition for all rocks. The production of greater proportions of melt requires temperatures ～800–850 °C and is associated with the first appearance of orthopyroxene at pressures below 8–9 kbar or with the appearance and growth of garnet at higher pressures. The temperature at which orthopyroxene appears varies little with composition providing a robust estimate of the amphibolite–granulite facies boundary. Across this boundary, melt production is coincident with the breakdown of hornblende and/or biotite. Melts produced at granulite facies range from tonalite–trondhjemite–granodiorite for the metabasic protoliths, granodiorite to granite for the intermediate protoliths and granite for the tonalitic protoliths. Under fluid‐absent conditions the melt fertility of the different protoliths is largely controlled by the relative proportions of hornblende and quartz at high grade, with the intermediate compositions being the most fertile. The least fertile rocks are the most leucocratic tonalites due to their relatively small proportions of hydrous mafic phases such as hornblende or biotite. In the metabasic rocks, melt production becomes limited by the complete consumption of quartz to higher temperatures. The use of phase equilibrium forward‐modelling provides a thermodynamic framework for understanding melt production, melt loss and intracrustal differentiation during the Archean.     

Anisotropic damage of rock joints during cyclic loading: constitutive framework and numerical integration

This work describes a constitutive framework for modeling the behavior of rough joints under cyclic loading. Particular attention is paid to the intrinsic links between dilatancy, surface degradation, and mobilized shear strength. The framework also accounts for the important effect of shear‐induced anisotropy. The resulting approach is fully three‐dimensional and is not restricted to plane‐displacement kinematics. Both the governing formulation and an algorithm for implicit numerical integration are presented. While the proposed methods are general, we also postulate a specific model that is compared with experimental data. It employs relatively few free parameters but shows good agreement with laboratory tests. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

New mineral activity–composition relations for thermodynamic calculations in metapelitic systems

New activity–composition (a–x) relations for minerals commonly occurring in metapelites are presented for use with the internally consistent thermodynamic dataset of Holland & Powell ( 2011 , Journal of Metamorphic Geology, 29 , 333–383). The a–x relations include a broader consideration of Fe₂O₃ in minerals, changes to the formalism of several phases and order–disorder in all ferromagnesian minerals where Fe–Mg mixing occurs on multiple sites. The a–x relations for chlorite, biotite, garnet, chloritoid, staurolite, cordierite, orthopyroxene, muscovite, paragonite and margarite have been substantially reparameterized using the approach outlined in the companion paper in this issue. For the first time, the entire set of a–x relations for the common ferromagnesian minerals in metapelitic rocks is parameterized simultaneously, with attention paid to ensuring that they can be used together to calculate phase diagrams of geologically appropriate topology. The a–x relations developed are for use in the Na₂O–CaO–K₂O–FeO–MgO–Al₂O₃–SiO₂–H₂O–TiO₂–O₂ (NCKFMASHTO) system for both subsolidus and suprasolidus conditions. Petrogenetic grids in KFMASH and KFMASHTO are similar in topology to those produced with earlier end‐member datasets and a–x relations, but with some notable differences. In particular, in subsolidus equilibria, the FeO/(FeO + MgO) of garnet is now greater than in coexisting staurolite, bringing a number of key staurolite‐bearing equilibria into better agreement with inferences from field and petrographic observations. Furthermore, the addition of Fe³⁺ and Ti to a number of silicate phases allows more plausible equilibria to be calculated in relevant systems. Pseudosections calculated with the new a–x relations are also topologically similar to equivalent diagrams using earlier a–x relations, although with many low variance fields shifting in P–T space to somewhat lower pressure conditions.     

Fluvial archives as a framework for the Lower and Middle Palaeolithic: patterns of British artefact distribution and potential chronological implications

With the adoption of an ‘expanded chronology’ for the Middle Pleistocene, based on the greater number of warm and cold episodes evident in the marine oxygen isotope record from deep ocean cores, has come the recognition of a meaningful progression of artefact types, something that could not be achieved with reference to the previous ‘compressed chronology’. In Britain, at least, it has been established that Levallois knapping techniques appeared in MIS 9–8, that bout coupé handaxes are indicative of MIS 3 and, rather more tentatively, that assemblages with twisted ovate handaxes in significant numbers represent MIS 11 occupation. Added to these key markers, it is now possible to suggest that further tool types occur preferentially in deposits of particular age: assemblages with significant proportions of cleavers and ‘ficron’ handaxes appear to be correlated with deposits formed at around the time of the MIS 9 interglacial. This newly recognized patterning within the Lower and Middle Palaeolithic record differs markedly from the previous use, in the mid‐20th century, of archaeological typology as a means of dating Pleistocene sequences, which was based on a relative refinement of tool making that is now recognized to be unrelated to age. Indeed, the authors would wish to emphasize that, even with reference to the new scheme presented here, the archaeological record should only be seen as dating evidence ‘of last resort’.     

Deep uncertainty in long-term hurricane risk: Scenario generation and implications for future climate experiments

Current projections of long-term trends in Atlantic hurricane activity due to climate change are deeply uncertain, both in magnitude and sign. This creates challenges for adaptation planning in exposed coastal communities. We present a framework to support the interpretation of current long-term tropical cyclone projections, which accommodates the nature of the uncertainty and aims to facilitate robust decision making using the information that is available today. The framework is populated with projections taken from the recent literature to develop a set of scenarios of long-term hurricane hazard. Hazard scenarios are then used to generate risk scenarios for Florida using a coupled climate–catastrophe modeling approach. The scenarios represent a broad range of plausible futures; from wind-related hurricane losses in Florida halving by the end of the century to more than a four-fold increase due to climate change alone. We suggest that it is not possible, based on current evidence, to meaningfully quantify the relative confidence of each scenario. The analyses also suggest that natural variability is likely to be the dominant driver of the level and volatility of wind-related risk over the coming decade; however, under the highest scenario, the superposition of this natural variability and anthropogenic climate change could mean notably increased levels of risk within the decade. Finally, we present a series of analyses to better understand the relative adequacy of the different models that underpin the scenarios and draw conclusions for the design of future climate science and modeling experiments to be most informative for adaptation.     

Hydrology and geomorphology of the Upper White Nile lakes and their relevance for water resources management in the Nile basin

Remote sensing data and digital elevation models were utilized to extract the catchment hydrological parameters and to delineate storage areas for the Ugandan Equatorial Lakes region. Available rainfall/discharge data are integrated with these morphometric data to construct a hydrological model that simulates the water balance of the different interconnected basins and enables the impact of potential management options to be examined. The total annual discharges of the basins are generally very low (less than 7% of the total annual rainfall). The basin of the shallow (5 m deep) Lake Kioga makes only a minor hydrological contribution compared with other Equatorial Lakes, because most of the overflow from Lake Victoria basin into Lake Kioga is lost by evaporation and evapotranspiration. The discharge from Lake Kioga could be significantly increased by draining the swamps through dredging and deepening certain channel reaches. Development of hydropower dams on the Equatorial Lakes will have an adverse impact on the annual water discharge downstream, including the occasional reduction of flow required for filling up to designed storage capacities and permanently increasing the surface areas of water that is exposed to evaporation. On the basis of modelling studies, alternative sites are proposed for hydropower development and water storage schemes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.