Multi-scale permeability estimation for a tropical catchment

Physically based and spatially distributed modelling of catchment hydrology involves the estimation of block or whole-hillslope permeabilities. Invariably these estimates are derived by calibration against rainfall–runoff response. Rarely are these estimates rigorously compared with parameter measurements made at the small scale. This study uses a parametrically simple model, TOPMODEL, and an uncertainty framework to derive permeability at the catchment scale. The utility of expert knowledge of the internal catchment dynamics (i.e. extent of saturated area) in constraining parameter uncertainty is demonstrated. Model-derived estimates are then compared with core-based measurements of permeability appropriately up-scaled. The observed differences between the permeability estimates derived by the two methods might be attributed to the role of intermediate scale features (natural soil pipes). An alternative method of determining block permeabilities at the intermediate or hillslope scale is described. This method uses pulse-wave tests and explicitly incorporates the resultant effects of phenomena such as soil piping and kinematic wave migration. The study aims to highlight issues associated with parameterizing or validating distributed models, rather than to provide a definitive solution. The fact that the permeability distribution within the Borneo study catchment is comparatively simple, assists the comparisons. The field data were collected in terrain covered by equatorial rainforest. Combined field measurement and modelling programmes are rare within such environments. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Preserved organic matter in a fossil Ocean Continent Transition in the Alps: the example of Totalp,SE Switzerland

Evidence from ultraslow spreading mid-ocean ridges and both fossil and present-day Ocean–Continent Transitions (OCT) demonstrates that mantle serpentinization resulting from the interaction of mantle rock and water during tectonic exhumation is widespread. Observations at white smokers in modern ocean settings suggest that methane produced by serpentinization can support methanotrophic bio-systems, which use methane as the only source of carbon. An important question is whether such bio-systems are more generally pervasive in their association with serpentinized mantle in the subsurface. In this study, we examined whether there is evidence for such a methanotrophic system in exhumed serpentinized mantle at a magma-poor rifted continental margin, by probing for characteristic biological markers in these and associated sedimentary rocks in the Totalp unit of SE Switzerland. This unit represents a remnant of the former OCT of the southern Alpine Tethyan margin and was chosen because of its mild Alpine tectonic and low-grade metamorphic overprint during Alpine orogeny, hence giving potential for the preservation of indigenous organic matter (OM). Totalp samples are characterized by low organic carbon contents of 11–647 ppm. The majority of the samples contain hydrocarbons in the form of n-alkanes in the range C₁₇–C₃₆. Some sediments contain isoprenoids, for example pristane and phytane and a suite of steranes that are consistent with a marine origin for the OM preserved in the rocks. Traces of marine planktonic and bacterial OM are preserved in the serpentinized mantle and overlying sediments of this ancient Tethyan OCT, but there is no evidence that the OM has been generated from methanotrophic bio-systems.     

Application of the Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) method to the Caspian Sea conflict

This study proposes a promising allocation mechanism of the Caspian Sea natural resources, which are presently shared among five countries. To date, these nations have been unable to reach an allocation agreement. We apply a methodology to propose the most appropriate solution under different risk attitudes of the states. This research is different from other studies regarding the Caspian Sea negotiations in that it employs risk-based fuzzy multi attribute decision making methods for simulating the risk attitudes or optimism/pessimism degrees of the decision makers. The ordered weighted averaging (OWA) approach, which considers the optimism/pessimism degree quantitatively, is used to take into account the effects of different risk attitudes of the negotiators on the final outcome. We demonstrate how one could obtain a range of alternatives under different multi attribute and risk attitudes. The induced OWA (IOWA) method is also used to determine the relative power of these states bordering the Caspian Sea by considering several attributes, including different risk attitudes of agents. Results indicate that taking into account the risk attitude (prone, neutral, averse) of the states can affect the overall ranking of the proposed solutions. The findings from this study may facilitate negotiation regarding the most preferred allocation mechanism for the Caspian Sea.     

Alternative water management options to reduce vulnerability for climate change in the Netherlands

Urbanization, land subsidence and sea level rise will increase vulnerability of the urbanized low-lying areas in the western part of the Netherlands. In this article possibilities are explored to reduce vulnerability of these areas by implementing alternative water management options. Two main water management fields are distinguished, water supply and flood control. A four-component vulnerability framework is presented that includes threshold capacity, coping capacity, recovery capacity, and adaptive capacity. By using the vulnerability framework it is shown that current water supply and flood control strategies in the Netherlands focus on increasing threshold capacity by constructing higher and stronger dikes, improved water storage and delivery infrastructure. A complete vulnerability decreasing strategy requires measures that include all four capacities. Flood damage reduction, backup water supply systems and emergency plans are measures that can contribute to increasing coping capacity. Recovery capacity can be increased by multi-source water supply, insurance, or establishing disaster funds. Adaptive capacity can be developed by starting experiments with new modes of water supply and urbanization. Including all four components of the vulnerability framework enables better understanding of water and climate related vulnerability of urban areas and enables developing more complete water management strategies to reduce vulnerability.     

Analyses on granular mass movement mechanics and deformation with distinct element numerical modeling: implications for large-scale rock and debris avalanches

A large-scale avalanche of Earth material is modeled here as a granular flow using a distinct element numerical model PFC ^2D. Such failures occur in a variety of geological settings and are known to occur frequently over geologic time-scales transporting significant volumes of material basinward. Despite this, they remain poorly understood. The model used here begins with a listric failure, typical of the flank collapse of a volcanic cone, and describes the movement of an assembly of several thousand particles from failure to deposition. Within the model, each particle possesses its own material properties and interacts with its immediate neighbors and/or the basal boundary during emplacement. The general mechanics of the particle assembly are observed by monitoring the stresses, displacements, and velocities of distinct sections of the avalanche body. We monitor the avalanches’ energy regime (e.g., gravitational influence, energy dissipation by friction, kinetic energy evolution, and avalanche body strain). The addition of colored markers of varying geometry to the pre-failure avalanche was also used to make qualitative observations on the internal deformation that occurs during avalanche emplacement. A general stretching and thinning of the avalanche is observed. Monitoring of vertical and horizontal variations in stress, strain, porosity, and relative particle stability indicate that the lower more proximal sections of the avalanche are subject to higher stresses. These stresses are observed to be most significant during the initial phases of failure but decline thereafter; a situation likely to be conducive to block fragmentation and in developing a basal shear layer in real-world events. The model also shows how an avalanche which is initially influenced purely by gravity (potential energy) develops into a fully flowing assemblage as downslope momentum is gained and kinetic energy increases. The horizontal transition where the failure meets the run-out surface is recognized as a key area in emplacement evolution. The model has particular relevance to volcanic flank collapses and consequently the implications of the model to these types of failure and the geological products that result are considered in detail although the model is relevant to any form of large-scale rock or debris avalanche.     

Discussion of “Neuro-fuzzy models employing wavelet analysis for suspended sediment concentration prediction in rivers”

Citation Abrahart, R.J. & Mount, N.J. (2011) Discussion of “Neuro-fuzzy models employing wavelet analysis for suspended sediment concentration prediction in rivers by S.A. Mirgagheri et al. (2010, Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(7), 1175–1189).” Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1325–1329.     

Relationship among titanium,rare earth elements,U–Pb ages and deformation microstructures in zircon: Implications for Ti-in-zircon thermometry

A zircon grain in an orthopyroxene–garnet–phlogopite–zircon–rutile-bearing xenolith from Udachnaya, Siberia, preserves a pattern of crystallographic misorientation and subgrain microstructure associated with crystal–plastic deformation. The zircon grain records significant variations in titanium (Ti) from 2.6 to 30 ppm that corresponds to a difference in calculated Ti-in-zircon temperatures of over several hundred degrees Celsius. The highest Ti concentration is measured at subgrain centres (30 ppm), and Ti is variably depleted at low-angle boundaries (down to 2.6 ppm). Variations in cathodoluminescence coincide with the deformation microstructure and indicate localised, differential enrichment of rare earth elements (REE) at low-angle boundaries. Variable enrichment of U and Th and systematic increase of Th/U from 1.61 to 3.52 occurs at low-angle boundaries. Individual SHRIMP-derived U–Pb ages from more deformed zones (mean age of 1799 ± 40, n = 22) are systematically younger than subgrain cores (mean age of 1851 ± 65 Ma, n = 7), and indicate that open system behaviour of Ti–Th–U occurred shortly after zircon growth, prior to the accumulation of significant radiogenic Pb. Modelling of trace-element diffusion distances for geologically reasonable thermal histories indicates that the observed variations are ~ 5 orders of magnitude greater than can be accounted for by volume diffusion. The data are best explained by enhanced diffusion of U, Th and Ti along deformation-related fast-diffusion pathways, such as dislocations and low-angle (< 5°) boundaries. These results indicate chemical exchange between zircon and the surrounding matrix and show that Ti-in-zircon thermometry and U–Pb geochronology from deformed zircon may not yield information relating to the conditions and timing of primary crystallisation.     

New friends in new places: Network formation during the migration process among Poles in the UK

This paper contributes to on-going work that seeks to understand the dynamic nature of immigrant social network formation. We explore three propositions, derived from the literature, that might be expected to characterise the ways in which migrant associational ties evolve during and immediately after arrival in their destination country. Evidence is drawn from 42 interviews conducted between January and December 2008 with predominantly Polish migrants to the UK (28) as well as domestic service providers (14). In agreement with the existing literature on immigrant social network formation we find that weak associational ties between migrants are locally dense and rapidly formed. More surprisingly, we also find that the Poles in our sample from lower socio-economic groups tended to rely heavily upon weak associational ties while higher socio-economic group Poles tended to rely on associations made through their employing institutions. This illustrates the importance of socio-economic status in framing co-ethnic migrant network formation. This is significant because we also find that weak associational ties are not unambiguously beneficial to lower socio-economic group migrants who tend to (have to be) more compromising about, and therefore more compromised by, the social ‘friendships’ that result.