The need for operational reasoning in data‐driven rating curve prediction of suspended sediment

The use of data‐driven modelling techniques to deliver improved suspended sediment rating curves has received considerable interest in recent years. Studies indicate an increased level of performance over traditional approaches when such techniques are adopted. However, closer scrutiny reveals that, unlike their traditional counterparts, data‐driven solutions commonly include lagged sediment data as model inputs, and this seriously limits their operational application. In this paper, we argue the need for a greater degree of operational reasoning underpinning data‐driven rating curve solutions and demonstrate how incorrect conclusions about the performance of a data‐driven modelling technique can be reached when the model solution is based upon operationally invalid input combinations. We exemplify the problem through the re‐analysis and augmentation of a recent and typical published study, which uses gene expression programming to model the rating curve. We compare and contrast the previously published solutions, whose inputs negate their operational application, with a range of newly developed and directly comparable traditional and data‐driven solutions, which do have operational value. Results clearly demonstrate that the performance benefits of the published gene expression programming solutions are dependent on the inclusion of operationally limiting, lagged data inputs. Indeed, when operationally inapplicable input combinations are discounted from the models and the analysis is repeated, gene expression programming fails to perform as well as many simpler, more standard multiple linear regression, piecewise linear regression and neural network counterparts. The potential for overstatement of the benefits of the data‐driven paradigm in rating curve studies is thus highlighted. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

“Natural cycles” in lay understandings of climate change

This article analyses lay understandings of climate change elicited through a longitudinal population-based survey of climate change, place and community among 1162 residents in the Hunter Valley, Southeast Australia. We explore how older residents in contrasting rural and coastal geographic areas perceive climate change information in terms of culturally relevant meanings and values, lived experiences and emotional responses to seasonal cycles, temperature fluctuations and altered landscapes. Thematic analysis of comments given by 467 interviewees to an open-ended question identified a significant subset for whom the concepts of “nature” and “science” express competing views about changing climatic conditions. For them, the idea of “natural cycles” is a significant cultural construct that links nature and humans through time in a way that structures stable and resilient understandings of environmental change, drawing on established cosmological frameworks for contemplating the future in relation to the past. In contrast to other studies that postulate scepticism and denial as individuals’ fear management strategies in the face of climate change threat, we found that the natural cycles view is founded on a reassuring deeper conviction about how nature works, and is linked to other pro-environmental values not commonly found in sceptical groups. It is a paradox of natural cycles thinking that it rejects the anthropocentrism that is at the heart of science-based environmentalism. By contrast, it places humans as deeply integrated with nature, rather than operating outside it and attempting with uncertain science to control something that is ultimately uncontrollable.     

Quantitative assessment of the hydraulic role of subglaciofluvial interbeds in promoting deposition of deformation till (Northern Till,Ontario)

The Northern Till is a thick (>65 m) deformation till underlying some 7500 km² of Southern Ontario, Canada including the Peterborough Drumlin Field. It was deposited below the Lake Ontario ice stream of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. The till rests on glaciotectonized aquifer sediments and consists of multiple beds of till up to 6 m thick. These are separated by boulder lags, sometimes in the form of striated pavements, with thin (<30 cm) interbeds of poorly sorted waterlaid sand. The composite till stratigraphy indicates ‘punctuated aggradation’ where the subglacial bed was built up incrementally by the repeated ‘immobilization’ of deforming overpressured till layers. Boulders and sands indicate pauses in subglacial aggradation marked by sluggish sheet flows of water that reworked the top of the underlying till. Interbeds are laterally extensive and correlated using downhole electrical conductivity, core recovery and natural gamma data. A 3-D finite element model (FEFLOW) using data from 200 cored and geophysically logged boreholes, and a large digital water well dataset of 3400 individual records shows that the till functions as a ‘leaky aquitard’ as a consequence of water flow through interbeds. It is proposed that interbeds played a similar role in the subglacial hydraulic system below the Laurentide Ice Sheet by allowing drainage of excess porewater pressures in deforming sediment and promoting deposition of till. This is in agreement with theoretical studies of deforming bed dynamics and observations at modern glaciers where porewater in the deforming layer is discharged into underlying aquifers. In this way, the presence of interbeds may be fundamental in retarding downglacier transport of deforming bed material thereby promoting the build-up of thick subglacial till successions.     

Evaluation of lead movement from the abiotic to biotic at a small-arms firing range

An investigation to characterize the extent and speciation of lead contamination in water, soil, and surrounding biota was conducted at a small-arms firing and skeet range in West Point, New York. Specifically, lead concentrations were examined in sediment, soil, water, plants, fish and invertebrates. There is an elevated concentration of lead in the soil and sediment up to 11,000 g/g and 340 g/g and also evidence of bioconcentration of the lead by the surrounding biota. Earthworms had up to 90% higher concentrations of lead while tadpoles showed 20% higher concentrations compared with their controls. Lead uptake by indigenous plants gave varying results. Two species bioconcentrated lead 20 and 55 times greater than the control plants. These differences were significant (P <0.05 level) when tested by the students t test. Further studies show that the total leachable lead was highest in the invertebrates and vertebrates but not in the plants.     

Understanding historical coastal spit evolution: A case study from Spurn,East Yorkshire,UK

Globally sandy coastlines are threatened by erosion driven by climatic changes and increased storminess. Understanding how they have responded to past storms is key to help manage future coastal changes. Coastal spits around the world are particularly dynamic and therefore potentially vulnerable coastal features. Therefore, how they have evolved over the last few centuries is of great importance. To illustrate this, this study focuses on the historical evolution of a spit at Spurn on the east coast of the UK, which currently provides critical protection to settlements within the Humber estuary. Through the combination of digitized historical mapping and luminescence dating, this study shows that Spurn has been a consistent coastal feature over at least the past 440 years. No significant westward migration was observed for the last 200 years. Results show a long-term extension of the spit and a decrease in its overall area, particularly in the last 50 years. Breaches of the neck cause temporary sediment pathway changes enabling westward extension of the head. Use of digitized historical maps in GIS combined with OSL dating has allowed a more complete understanding of long-term spit evolution and sediment transport modes at Spurn. In doing so it helps inform future possible changes linked to pressures, such as increases in storm events and sea-level rise. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd     

Climatic and oceanographic changes in the Northeast Atlantic reflected by magnetic properties of sediments deposited on the Portuguese Margin during the last 340 ka

Rock magnetic parameters measured along two giant piston cores MD95-2040 (40°34′N, 9°51′W) and MD95-2042 (37°47′N, 10°09′W) collected off the Portuguese Margin, related to other proxy-climatic data, have been used to reconstruct magnetic mineralogical changes of, in relation to environmental and climatic conditions over the North Atlantic, Western Europe and Northwest Africa during the last three climatic cycles (since isotope stage 10). Thin discrete layers containing coarse grains of titano-magnetite are associated with events of iceberg discharge during Heinrich events 1-6 [Heinrich, Quat. Res. 29 (1988) 142] that have equivalent events in isotope stages 5-8. Concentrations of fine-grained (Ti-) magnetite and hematite/goethite, varying in phase opposition, are directly linked with alternations of cold and warm climatic periods. Spectral analyses of the rock magnetic signals reveal Milankovitch periods at 100 and 41 ka, confirming the relationship with long-term climatic changes at high latitudes. The nature (Ti-magnetite) and size range of the finest ferrimagnetic fraction as well as its variation, suggest a control by deep currents carrying a colloidal/clayey fraction from remote sources (Iceland, Faeroes, mid-Atlantic Ridge). Variation of hematite/goethite contents is linked with transport by rivers and winds from the neighbouring continent. A tight correlation with the D-O cycles in Greenland ice records confirms that North Atlantic oceanic regimes and continental wind regimes were strongly influenced by millennial scale climatic changes throughout the last 350 ka.