Doubling of coastal erosion under rising sea level by mid-century in Hawaii

This study discusses the scaling properties of the spatial distribution of the December 26, 2004, Sumatra aftershocks. We estimate the spatial correlation dimension D ₂ of the epicentral distribution of aftershocks recorded by a local network operated by Geological Survey of India. We estimate the value of D ₂ for five blocks in the source area by using generalized correlation integral approach. We assess its bias due to finite data points, scaling range, effects of location errors, and boundary effects theoretically and apply it to real data sets. The correlation dimension was computed both for real as well as synthetic data sets that include randomly generated point sets obtained using uniform distributions and mimicking the number of events and outlines of the effective areas filled with epicenters. On comparing the results from the real data and random point sets from simulations, we found the lower limit of bias in D ₂ estimates from limited data sets to be 0.26. Thus, the spatial variation in correlation dimensions among different blocks using local data sets cannot be directly compared unless the influence of bias in the real aftershock data set is taken into account. They cannot also be used to infer the geometry of the faults. We also discuss the results in order to add constraints on the use of synthetic data and of different approaches for uncertainty analysis on spatial variation of D ₂. A difference in D ₂ values, rather than their absolute values, among small blocks is of interest to local data sets, which are correlated with their seismic b values. Taking into account the possible errors and biases, the average D ₂ values vary from 1.05 to 1.57 in the Andaman–Nicobar region. The relative change in D ₂ values can be interpreted in terms of clustering and diffuse seismic activity associated with the low and high D ₂ values, respectively. Overall, a relatively high D ₂ and low b value is consistent with high-magnitude, diffuse activity in space in the source region of the 2004 Sumatra earthquake.     

Reconstructing flow paths of the Middle Pleistocene British Ice Sheet in central-eastern England: the application of regional soil geochemical data

High-density regional geochemical data for surface soils in central England and East Anglia reveal that much of their geochemical character is inherited from the tills that they are developed upon. Multivariate statistical analysis highlighted three significant element associations of Al–Fe–Ga–K–La–Mg–Rb, Ca–Sr and K–Fe accounting for almost 93% of the geochemical variability of soils derived from tills. Provenancing the geochemical signatures of the latter elements enabled the construction of ice flow paths associated with two different Middle Pleistocene ‘chalky’ till sheets. A lower till sheet relating to ‘Pennine’ ice flowing from west to east across the region, and an upper till sheet deposited by North Sea ice moving into northern East Anglia, and to the west of the Fen Basin, before fanning-out across central England. Overall, geochemical signatures of different till units are largely derived from local bedrock sources, with dilution and a new geochemical signature acquired as the ice flows over and incorporates new bedrock lithologies. The results show that high resolution soil geochemical data provides a further proxy with which the flow paths of former ice sheets can be delineated.     

Cosmogenic nuclide exposure ages for moraines in the Lago San Martin Valley, Argentina

At several times during the Quaternary, a major eastward-flowing outlet glacier of the former Patagonian Ice Sheet occupied the Lago San Martin Valley in Argentina (49°S, 72°W). We present a glacial chronology for the valley based on geomorphological mapping and cosmogenic nuclide (¹⁰Be) exposure ages (n = 10) of boulders on moraines and lake shorelines. There are five prominent moraine belts in the Lago San Martin Valley, associated with extensive sandar (glaciofluvial outwash plains) and former lake shorelines. Cosmogenic nuclide exposure ages for boulders on these moraines indicate that they formed at 14.3 ± 1.7 ka, 22.4 ± 2.3 ka, 34.4 ± 3.4 ka to 37.6 ± 3.4 ka (and possibly 60 ± 3.5 ka), and 99 ± 11 ka (1σ). These dated glacier advances differ from published chronologies from the Lago San Martin Valley based on ¹⁴C age determinations from organic sediments and molluscs in meltwater channels directly in front of moraines or in kettleholes within end moraine ridges. The moraine boulder ages also point to possible pre-LGM glacial advances during the last glacial cycle and a key observation from our data is that the LGM glaciers were probably less extensive in the Lago San Martin Valley than previously thought.     

The Geological Conservation Review (GCR) in Great Britain—Rationale and methods

Geoconservation – protecting, managing and enhancing natural geological features and materials, and geomorphological landforms and processes – is especially important in Great Britain, a place sometimes described as the ‘cradle’ of the science of geology. For such a small area of land, Britain has an unusually diverse geological make-up, with rocks from every geological period present. Many stratigraphical terms used internationally were devised here, and British sites provide key study areas where important new geological theories were developed in the pioneering era of the Earth sciences. Therefore, with such a wealth of geology, and Britain's seminal place in the science itself, it is particularly important to conserve and protect key localities here for future generations. A first step in that process is the auditing of the geology and geomorphology of Britain, by carrying out a scientific evaluation exercise according to standard criteria, and creating an inventory of the most important sites for science.In the mid-1970s, the Nature Conservancy Council (NCC) began an ambitious programme for assessment and documentation of the most important sites for the scientific study of geology and geomorphology in Great Britain, building on previous statutory site conservation activity that had already been started in 1949 by the former Nature Conservancy. As a result, the ‘Geological Conservation Review’ (GCR) was formally launched in 1977. The GCR was a world-first project of its type in the systematic assessment of the whole geological heritage of a country, from first principles. Widespread consultation with geologists and geomorphologists across Great Britain was co-ordinated; their guidance and involvement was a key component of the site selection process. Almost 3000 nationally or internationally important sites had been selected for around 100 site-selection categories for the GCR register by 1990. Almost all the GCR sites are now conserved under British law as Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSIs), the GCR information providing the scientific evidence-base that underpins that designation.As part of the site-selection process – which is still active – a considerable archive of information about geological sites was amassed. A major publication exercise detailing all the GCR sites in what was to become the GCR Series of books was devised early on in the GCR programme.Thirty-six volumes of the GCR Series have been seen to completion by NCC and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee, and many GCR site reports have been many made freely available on the World Wide Web. As a new venture, the remaining nine volumes will now be published by Elsevier Science Publishers as Special Issues of the Proceedings of the Geologists’ Association. Each GCR volume includes an overview of the subject and outlines the history of study of the relevant branch of the Earth sciences, but most importantly contains detailed accounts of the features of geological importance in the sites described. A scientific interpretation is provided for each site account, which includes supportive illustrations, tables and photographs and an extensive reference list.The GCR rationale, methods and information resource have been invaluable in almost every aspect of geoconservation carried out in Britain, including World Heritage Site nominations, protection of stratotypes, justifying the scientific conservation value of sites at Public Inquiries, in stimulating geological research and in providing a readily available information resource for local, regional, national and international geoconservation activities.     

Vulnerability and resilience of remote rural communities to shocks and global changes: Empirical analysis from Solomon Islands

Successful management of socio-ecological systems not only requires the development and field-testing of robust and measurable indices of vulnerability and resilience but also improved understanding of the contextual factors that influence societal capacity to adapt to change. We present the results of an analysis conducted in three coastal communities in Solomon Islands. An integrated assessment map was used to systematically scan the communities’ multiple dimensions of vulnerability and to identify factors affecting households’ perception about their capacity to cope with shocks (resilience). A multivariate probit approach was used to explore relationships amongst factors. Social processes such as community cohesion, good leadership, and individual support to collective action were critical factors influencing the perception that people had about their community's ability to build resilience and cope with change. The analysis also suggests a growing concern for a combination of local (internal) and more global (external) contingencies and shocks, such as the erosion of social values and fear of climate change.     

Sediment dynamics below retreating cliffs

The retreat of cliffs may constitute the dominant erosional response to base‐level fall in arid settings underlain by horizontally‐bedded sedimentary rock. These vertical cliffs typically loom above a relatively straight bedrock slope (‘plinth’) that is mantled with a thin layer of sediment and perched near the angle of repose. In detail, a plinth consists of a system of quasi‐parallel ridges and channels. We ask how the sediment supplied from a retreating cliff influences the erosion of the plinth hillslopes and channels, and how this affects the rate of cliff retreat. Motivated by field observations and high‐resolution topographic data from two sites in western Colorado, we develop a two‐dimensional (2D), rules‐based numerical model to simulate the erosion of channels draining a plinth and diffusive erosion of the intervening interfluves. In this model, retreat of a cliffband occurs when the height of the vertical cliff exceeds a threshold due to incision by channels on the plinth below. Debris derived from cliff retreat is distributed over the model plinth according to the local topography and distance from the source. This debris then weathers in place, and importantly can act to reduce local bedrock erosion rates, protecting both the plinth and ultimately the cliff from erosion. In this paper, we focus on two sets of numerical model experiments. In one suite, we regulate the rate of rockfall to limit the cliff retreat rate; in most cases, this results in complete loss of the plinth by erosion. In a second suite, we do not impose a limit on the cliff retreat rate, but instead vary the weathering rate of the rockfall debris. These runs result in temporally steady cliff‐plinth forms and retreat rates; both depend on the weathering rate of the debris. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of the controls affecting the quality of spatial data derived from historical aerial photographs

This paper is concerned with the fundamental controls affecting the quality of data derived from historical aerial photographs typically used in geomorphological studies. A short review is provided of error sources introduced into the photogrammetric workflow. Data‐sets from two case‐studies provided a variety of source data and hence a good opportunity to evaluate the influence of the quality of archival material on the accuracy of coordinated points. Based on the statistical weights assigned to the measurements, precision of the data was estimated a priori, while residuals of independent checkpoints provided an a posteriori measure of data accuracy. Systematic discrepancies between the two values indicated that the routinely used stochastic model was incorrect and overoptimistic. Optimized weighting factors appeared significantly larger than previously used (and accepted) values. A test of repeat measurements explained the large uncertainties associated with the use of natural objects for ground control. This showed that the random errors not only appeared to be much larger than values accepted for appropriately controlled and targeted photogrammetric networks, but also small undetected gross errors were induced through the ‘misidentification’ of points. It is suggested that the effects of such ‘misidentifications’ should be reflected in the stochastic model through selection of more realistic weighting factors of both image and ground measurements. Using the optimized weighting factors, the accuracy of derived data can now be more truly estimated, allowing the suitability of the imagery to be judged before purchase and processing. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Coastal dunes and strandplains in southeast Queensland: Sequence and chronology

Parabolic dunes invade coastal strandplains and overlie prior blown dunes in southeast Queensland. These coastal dune landscapes were produced primarily by real changes in wind strength and frequency. Sand movement began in past glacial ages and in the most recent instance persisted into Holocene time. Four interglacial shores are identified with marine isotope stages 5, 7, 9 and 11, and allow estimation of the ages of the dune and beach sands, by correlation with the EPICA Dome C ice core, as follows: Triangle dune sand, n.d.; Garawongera dune sand, 65 ka; Woorim beach sand, 125 ka; Bribie beach sand, 245 ka; Bowarrady dune sand, 270 ka; Poyungan beach sand, 335 ka; Yankee Jack dune sand, 360 ka; Ungowa beach sand, 410 ka; Awinya dune sand, 430 – 486 ka; Cooloola dune sand, >486 ka.