A shale gas revolution for China?

The question of whether China is on the verge of a ‘shale gas revolution’ is examined. This has potentially significant consequences for energy policy and climate change mitigation. Contrary to the optimistic reading of some commentators, it argues that various technological, environmental, political, regulatory and institutional factors will constrain the growth of China's shale gas market and that such a revolution might in any event have consequences that are at best mixed, at worst antithetical to climate change mitigation.Policy relevanceChina's reserves of unconventional gas have the potential to transform energy policy, as has occurred in the US, resulting in the substitution of shale gas for coal in the energy mix. Because gas emits only approximately half the GHG per unit as coal, such a move would have important implications for climate policy. However, substantial obstacles stand in the way of the ‘energy revolution’ that some policy analysts see China as embarking upon. The need to acknowledge these obstacles, particularly those relating to regulation and governance (and whether or to what extent they can be overcome), is an issue of profound importance to the future of climate and energy policy.     

A high-resolution infrared spectral survey of Comet C/1999 H1 Lee

We obtained high-resolution (λ/Δλ∼25,000) spectra of Comet C/1999 H1 (Lee) on UT 1999 August 19.6 and 21.6 using the cross-dispersed Near InfraRed SPECtrometer (NIRSPEC) at the Keck Observatory atop Mauna Kea, HI. Here we present spectra of Comet Lee between 2.874 and 3.701 μm (3479-2702 cm⁻¹) representing the most complete high-resolution infrared survey of a comet to date in this wavelength region. Using published line lists and laboratory spectra we have identified 444 of the 545 distinct emission features present in these spectra. We have tabulated the rest frequencies, assignments, relative intensities, and signal-to-noise ratios of all detected emissions. In addition to gaining insights into the chemistry of Comet Lee, this survey provides a valuable tool for planning future high-resolution infrared observations of comets and other astronomical targets, and for retrospective comparison to existing high-resolution infrared datasets.     

The timing and nature of recession of outlet glaciers of Hielo Patagónico Norte, Chile, from their Neoglacial IV (Little Ice Age) maximum positions

The dates of recession of eleven outlet glaciers of the Hielo Patagónico Norte (Northern Patagonian Icefield) from their recent maximum positions have been inferred from dendrochronology, lichenometry, radiocarbon dating and historical sources. We have refined the dating for part of the Little Ice Age period in this area placing a glacial advance to between AD 1650 and 1766 with the latter date favoured as conformable with historical records and an uncalibrated radiocarbon determination. Glacier recession from maximal positions began in the early 1860s–1870s. Recession was largely synchronous on the western and eastern sides of the Icefield. This synchronicity suggests that climate forcing over-rides second-order controls on glacier behaviour such as the nature of the terminal environment (e.g. calving/non-calving) or differences in glacier drainage basin area. We argue that this icefield-wide glacier recession represents a response to post-Little Ice Age warming, and provides further evidence for the global extent and near synchronous termination of the Little Ice Age.     

Effects of metals and sediment particle size on the species composition of the epifauna of Pinna bicolor near a lead smelter,Spencer Gulf,South Australia

Pinna bicolor (Mollusca: Pelecypoda) were transplanted between four sites near a lead smelter. The species composition of their epifauna (sessile and mobile) was examined in relation to characteristics of both sediments and seston at the sites. Seventy-two taxa were distinguished in the epifaunal community. Substantial differences were found in the short-term sensitivity of some of the species to concentrations of Cd, Pb and Zn in sediments and to sediment particle size. The short-term sensitivity of many species to metals or sediment particle size explained their long-term distribution pattern. Twenty-three taxa were identified as significantly characterizing the faunal differences. Of these, eleven (four molluscs, four bryozoans, two barnacles and one ascidian) were affected by both sediment metal concentration and particle size, and eight (four molluscs, one bryozoan, one polychaete, one hydroid and one barnacle) were affected by metal contamination but not particle size. Of all fauna examined, the Bryozoa were the most metal-sensitive. Four species, Smittina raigii (Bryozoa), Galeolaria sp. 1 (Polychaeta), Epopella simplex (Cirripedia) and Monia ione (Pelecypoda) were identified by their short- and long-term sensitivity to metal contamination, and absence of sensitivity to sediment particle size, as suitable species for monitoring the effects of metal contamination on the epifauna. The implications of the results for toxicity-testing are discussed.     

Investigating the central engine of ultraluminous infrared galaxies: near-infrared imaging

We present 0.5-arcsec-resolution near-infrared images of six ultraluminous infrared galaxies with known redshifts. Six of the eight bright nuclei are resolved on kiloparsec scales, suggesting that there is significant circumnuclear star formation or close progenitor nuclei. At this spatial resolution, the nuclei have very red colours that cannot in general be reproduced by reddening stellar light, but require an additional component of hot dust emission. In five of the six primary nuclei more than 20 per cent of the K -band continuum originates in hot dust, but the temperature cannot be determined by JHK broad-band colours alone. Comparison with the spectral shapes, however, does allow the temperature to be constrained, and we find in every case that it is at the upper end of the permissible range, ≳1000 K. This does not necessarily imply that there is an active galactic nucleus present, since there is evidence that stellar processes can also generate dust this hot via stochastic heating of small grains. The quantities of hot dust we have found here can make up to 0.5-mag difference to the K -band magnitude even at     , with implications for observations and population synthesis models of higher-redshift objects. Observations in the L or M bands, where hot dust is most important at     , could help to discriminate between models of dusty starbursts and ellipticals.     

Solar nebula dispersal and the stability of the planetary system: I. Scanning secular resonance theory

Secular resonances in the early solar system are studied in an effort to establish constraints on the time scale and/or method of solar nebula dispersal. Simplified nebula models and dispersal routines are employed to approximate changes in an assumed axisymmetric nebula potential. These changes, in turn, drive an evolutionary sequence of Laplace-Lagrange solutions for the secular variations of the solar system. A general feature of these sequences is a sweep of one or more giant planet resonances through the inner solar system. Their effect is rate dependent; in the linearized models considered, characteristic dispersal times ≤O(10^4?5 years) are required to avoid the generation of terrestrial eccentricities and inclinations in excess of observed values. These times are short compared to typical estimates of the accretion time scales [i.e., ～O(10^7?9 years)] and may provide an important boundary condition for developing models of nebula dispersal and solar system formation in general.     

Use of the frozen flux approximation in the interpretation of archaeomagnetic and palaeomagnetic data

Summary. The frozen flux approximation of Roberts & Scott is a constraint on the core field that can be used to aid interpretation of the very sparse datasets that palaeomagnetism and archaeomagnetism provide. It gives bounds on the size of the components of the magnetic field at a point, of the Gauss coefficients, and, if valid over such long time periods, limits the shape of the field during transitions between normal and reversed polarities. The maximum intensity at a point, consistent with the present flux, is 281 μT or 4 times the maximum field observed today. The present dipole is about 50 per cent of its upper bound. Polarity reversal is impossible if the transition field is purely axisymmetric. None of the measurements we consider violate the frozen flux approximation.