Regional regression models for hydro‐climate change impact assessment

Hydro‐climatic impacts in water resources systems are typically assessed by forcing a hydrologic model with outputs from general circulation models (GCMs) or regional climate models. The challenges of this approach include maintaining a consistent energy budget between climate and hydrologic models and also properly calibrating and verifying the hydrologic models. Subjective choices of loss, flow routing, snowmelt and evapotranspiration computation methods also increase watershed modelling uncertainty and thus complicate impact assessment. An alternative approach, particularly appealing for ungauged basins or locations where record lengths are short, is to predict selected streamflow quantiles directly from meteorological variable output from climate models using regional regression models that also include physical basin characteristics. In this study, regional regression models are developed for the western Great Lakes states using ordinary least squares and weighted least squares techniques applied to selected Great Lakes watersheds. Model inputs include readily available downscaled GCM outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3. The model results provide insights to potential model weaknesses, including comparatively low runoff predictions from continuous simulation models that estimate potential evapotranspiration using temperature proxy information and comparatively high runoff projections from regression models that do not include temperature as an explanatory variable. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Post‐1850 changes in Glacier Benito,North Patagonian Icefield,Chile

Glacier Benito is a temperate outlet glacier on the west side of the North Patagonian Icefield. Rates of thinning and ablation were obtained using data collected by the British Joint Services Expedition in 1972/73 and subsequent data collected in 2007 and 2011. Ice‐front recession rates were based on dendrochronological dating for the terminal moraines and aerial and satellite imagery of the ice front in 1944, 1998 and 2002. Between the first Benito survey in 1973 and 2007, the lower glacier thinned by nearly 150 m at an average rate of 4.3 m yr^?1 with the rate increasing to 6.1 m yr^?1 between 2007 and 2011, a 28.7% increase during the latter period. Increases in ice movement and ablation were negligible: ice movement for 1973 and 2007 averaged 0.45 m day^?1 and ablation averaged 0.05 m day^?1. Ice front recession along the glacier's centre line from 1886 to 2002 was approximately 1860 m. Retreat rates between 1886 and 1944 averaged 8.9 m yr^?1. Thereafter glacier asymmetry makes measurement along the glacier centre line unrepresentative of areal change until 1998 when symmetry was restored; retreat between 1944 and 1998 was 15.4 m yr^?1. From 1998 to 2002 the rate increased dramatically to 127.2 m yr^?1. Recession from the southern end of Benito's terminal moraine in the 1850s supports an early date for initial retreat of the Icefield's glaciers.     

The effect of environmental change on human migration

The influence of the environment and environmental change is largely unrepresented in standard theories of migration, whilst recent debates on climate change and migration focus almost entirely on displacement and perceive migration to be a problem. Drawing on an increasing evidence base that has assessed elements of the influence of the environment on migration, this paper presents a new framework for understanding the effect of environmental change on migration. The framework identifies five families of drivers which affect migration decisions: economic, political, social, demographic and environmental drivers. The environment drives migration through mechanisms characterised as the availability and reliability of ecosystem services and exposure to hazard. Individual migration decisions and flows are affected by these drivers operating in combination, and the effect of the environment is therefore highly dependent on economic, political, social and demographic context. Environmental change has the potential to affect directly the hazardousness of place. Environmental change also affects migration indirectly, in particular through economic drivers, by changing livelihoods for example, and political drivers, through affecting conflicts over resources, for example. The proposed framework, applicable to both international and internal migration, emphasises the role of human agency in migration decisions, in particular the linked role of family and household characteristics on the one hand, and barriers and facilitators to movement on the other in translating drivers into actions. The framework can be used to guide new research, assist with the evaluation of policy options, and provide a context for the development of scenarios representing a range of plausible migration futures.     

Modeling the impacts of bottom trawling and the subsequent recovery rates of sponges and corals in the Aleutian Islands, Alaska

The abundance of some marine fish species are correlated to the abundance of habitat-forming benthic organisms such as sponges and corals. A concern for fisheries management agencies is the recovery of these benthic invertebrates from removal or mortality from bottom trawling and other commercial fisheries activities. Using a logistic model, observations of available substrate and data from bottom trawl surveys of the Aleutian Islands, Alaska, we estimated recovery rates of sponges and corals following removal. The model predicted the observed sponge and coral catch in bottom trawl surveys relatively accurately (R²=0.38 and 0.46). For sponges, the results show that intrinsic growth rates were slow (r=0.107 yr⁻¹). Results show that intrinsic growth rates of corals were also slow (r=0.062 yr⁻¹). The best models for corals and sponges were models that did not include the impacts of commercial fishing removals. Subsequent recovery times for both taxa were also predicted to be slow. Mortality of 67% of the initial sponge biomass would recover to 80% of the original biomass after 20 years, while mortality of 67% of the coral biomass would recover to 80% of the original biomass after 34 years. The modeled recovery times were consistent with previous studies in estimating that recovery times were of the order of decades, however improved data from directed studies would no doubt improve parameter estimates and reduce the uncertainty in the model results. Given their role as a major ecosystem component and potential habitat for marine fish, damage and removal of sponges and corals must be considered when estimating the impacts of commercial bottom trawling on the seafloor.