Acute ecological risk associated with soot deposition: a Persian Gulf case study

Many studies have been carried out in the past to provide solutions to the threat of chemicals to the ecosystem. However, the basic scientific capability to predict the risk of adverse effects on the ecological system has not kept pace with society's increasing demand for uses of chemicals. As a scientific methodology for quantifying the risk to the environment associated with exposure to chemicals, ecological risk assessment is increasingly important in environmental problem solving. The purpose of this paper is to present a methodology for conducting ecological risk assessment using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. A systematic discussion on elements of ecological risk assessment is presented. A framework of ecological risk assessment is explained with the help of the Persian Gulf environmental problem as a case study. The study was based on the output of a long-range transport model of soot deposition in the Gulf. Results of the assessment using the deterministic and probabilistic approaches are discussed.     

Boundary element modeling of multidirectional random waves in a harbor with partially reflecting boundaries

A numerical model is presented for the prediction of the wave field due to the diffraction of directional random waves in a harbor of arbitrary shape with partially reflecting boundaries. The water depth is assumed uniform and the method is based upon the superposition of diffraction solutions for monochromatic waves obtained by a two-dimensional boundary integral equation approach. The incident wave conditions are specified using a discrete form of the Mitsuyasu directional spectrum. The present numerical model has been validated through comparisons with previous experimental data and theoretical results for both regular and random wave diffraction by offshore breakwaters and in harbors. Good agreement was obtained in all cases. Based on these comparisons it is concluded that the present numerical model is an accurate and efficient tool to predict the wave field inside a harbor or around a breakwater in many practical applications.     

The Fish Assemblage of a Newfoundland Estuary: Diel, Monthly and Annual Variation

Twice monthly sampling over two 16 month periods at a shallow site on Newfoundland's east coast showed the fish assemblage to be dominated by four taxa (Gasterosteus aculeatus, G. wheatlandi, Osmerus mordax, Gadus spp.) that accounted for 96% of the individuals collected. Of the 16 479 fish measured, 65% were adults based on the estimated size of first spawning. The fish assemblage was dominated (86%) by species with demersal eggs, several of which spawn at the same shallow sites used by juveniles as nursery sites. Coastal spawning and demersal eggs maintain offspring in coastal nursery areas where survival is thought to be increased. Number of species and number of fish were both correlated with water temperature being highest from mid-summer to early autumn and lowest in winter. Temperature, time of spawning, and movements of juveniles and adults facilitated grouping species into five assemblages based on seasonal abundance: seasonal periodic species (summer and winter), regular species, regular species collected in all seasons except winter, and occasional (rare) species. At the diel scale, two consistent species groupings were observed: species that showed no significant difference between day and night and species caught primarily at night. Number of night species exceeded day species by a factor of two. No seine-caught species in shallow water exhibited significantly higher catches during the day. Observations by SCUBA divers indicated some species were more abundant during day time at slightly deeper depths. This observation in conjunction with day and night seining in shallower water, suggests these species aggregate in deeper water during day and move to shallow waters at night.     

An empirical expression for aerodynamic resistance in the unstable boundary layer

In unstable conditions, the set of equations defining the aerodynamic resistance to sensible heat transfer, r _a , cannot be solved analytically. An iterative technique must be used to obtain r _a exactly, but this is cumbersome and time consuming. In this paper, a new, empirical equation is presented relating the ratio, Q, of the aerodynamic resistances in neutral and unstable conditions, to the bulk Richardson number, Ri _B . The equation takes the form Q = a + b(–Ri) ^c , where a, b and c are empirical functions of (z – d)/z _om . This model is shown to predict r _awith a mean absolute error of 0.06 s m^–1 over the ranges -15 < Ri _B < 0 and 10 < (z – d)/z _om < 2300. Statistical comparison with other equations that have been proposed for r _a in unstable conditions indicates the superior precision of the model presented here.     

Multiproxy record for the last 4500 years from Lake Shkodra (Albania/Montenegro)

A multi‐proxy record is presented for approximately the last 4500 cal a BP from Lake Shkodra, Albania/Montenegro. Lithological analyses, C/N ratio and δ¹³C of the organic and inorganic carbon component suggest that organic matter and bulk carbonate are predominantly authigenic. The δ¹⁸O record of bulk carbonate indicates the presence of two prominent wet periods: one at ca. 4300 cal a BP and one at ca. 2500–2000 cal a BP. The latter phase is also found in southern Spain and Central Italy, and represents a prominent event in the western and central Mediterranean. In the last 2000 years, four relatively wet intervals occurred between ca. 1800 and 1500 cal a BP (150–450 AD), 1350–1250 (600–700 AD), 1100–800 (850–1150 AD), and at ca. 90 cal a BP (1860 AD). Between ca. 4100 and 2500 cal a BP δ¹⁸O values are relatively high, with three prominent peaks indicating drier conditions at ca. 4100–4000 cal a BP, ca. 3500 and at ca. 3300 cal a BP. Four additional drier events are identified at 1850 (ca. 100 AD), 1400 (ca. 550 AD), 1150 (800 AD) and ca.750 cal a BP (1200 AD). The pollen record does not show changes in accordance with these episodes owing to the poor sensitivity of vegetation in this area, which is dominated by an orographic rainfall effect and where changes in altitudinal vegetation belts do not affect the pollen rain in the lake catchment. However, since ca. 900 cal a BP a significant decrease in the percentage arboreal pollen and in pollen concentrations suggest major deforestation produced by human activities. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stochastic Modeling of Groundwater Extractions over a Data-Sparse Region of Australia

Setting limit on groundwater extractions is important to ensure sustainable groundwater management. Lack of extraction data can affect interpretations of historical pressure changes, predictions of future impacts, accuracy of groundwater model calibration, and identification of sustainable management options. Yet, many groundwater extractions are unmetered. Therefore, there is a need for models that estimate extraction rates and quantify model outputs uncertainties arising due to a lack of data. This paper develops such a model within the Generalized Linear Modeling (GLM) framework, using a case study of stock and domestic (SD) extractions in the Surat Cumulative Management Area, a predominantly cattle farming region in eastern Australia. Various types of extraction observations were used, ranging from metering to analytically-derived estimates. GLMs were developed and applied to estimate the property-level extraction amounts, where observation types were weighted by perceived relative accuracy, and well usage status. The primary variables found to affect property-level extraction rates were: yearly average temperature and rainfall, pasture, property area, and number of active wells; while variables most affecting well usage were well water electrical conductivity, spatial coordinates, and well age. Results were compared with analytical estimates of property-level extraction, illustrating uncertainties and potential biases across 20 hydrogeological units. Spatial patterns of mean extraction rates (and standard deviations) are presented. It is concluded that GLMs are well suited to the problem of extraction rate estimation and uncertainty analysis, and are ideal when model verification is supported by measurement of a random sample of properties.     

Modification and testing of a one‐dimensional energy and mass balance model for supraglacial snowpacks

A one‐dimensional energy and mass balance snow model (SNTHERM) has been modified for use with supraglacial snowpacks and applied to a point on Haut Glacier d'Arolla, Switzerland. It has been adapted to incorporate the underlying glacier ice and a site‐specific, empirically derived albedo routine. Model performance was tested against continuous measurements of snow depth and meltwater outflow from the base of the snowpack, and intermittent measurements of surface albedo and snowpack density profiles collected during the 1993 and 2000 melt seasons. Snow and ice ablation was simulated accurately. The timing of the daily pattern of meltwater outflow was well reproduced, although magnitudes were generally underestimated, possibly indicating preferential flow into the snowpack lysimeter. The model was used to assess the quantity of meltwater stored temporally within the unsaturated snowpack and meltwater percolation rates, which were found to be in agreement with dye tracer experiments undertaken on this glacier. As with other energy balance studies on alpine valley glaciers, the energy available for melt was dominated by net radiation (64%), with a sizable contribution from sensible heat flux (36%) and with a negligible latent heat flux overall, although there was more complex temporal variation on diurnal timescales. A basic sensitivity analysis indicated that melt rates were most sensitive to radiation, air temperature and snowpack density, indicating the need to accurately extrapolate/interpolate these variables when developing a spatially distributed framework for this model. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Time-series Paschen-β spectroscopy of SU Aurigae

We present time-series echelle spectra of the Paβ line of the T Tauri star SU Aur, observed over three consecutive nights. The line shows strong variability (∼10 per cent) over the velocity range 100–420 km s⁻¹ in the red broad absorption component, and weaker variability (∼2 per cent) over the velocity range  −200–0 km s⁻¹  in the blue wing. The variability in the velocity range  −200–0 km s⁻¹  is correlated with that in  200–400 km s⁻¹  , and the variability in these velocity ranges anticorrelates with that in  0–100 km s⁻¹  . The mean spectrum from the second night shows the suggestion of a blueshifted absorption component at about  −150 km s⁻¹  , similar to that found in the Hα and Hβ lines. We find the position of the subpeak in the red absorption component changes steadily with time, and its motion modulates at half the rotational period. We also find that the modulation of the line equivalent width is possibly associated with a half and a third of the rotational period, which is consistent with the surface Doppler images of SU Aur. Radiative transfer models of a rotationally modulated Paβ line, produced in the shock-heated magnetospheric accretion flow, are also presented. Models with a magnetic dipole offset reproduce the overall characteristics of the observed line variability, including the line equivalent width and the motion of the subpeak in the red absorption trough.     

Revised radiocarbon ages on woolly rhinoceros (Coelodonta antiquitatis) from western central Scotland: significance for timing the extinction of woolly rhinoceros in Britain and the onset of the LGM in central Scotland

Woolly rhinoceros bones, from a number of sites in Britain, have been AMS radiocarbon dated following ultrafiltration pre-treatment. These determinations give a coherent set of ages between >50 and c. 35 cal ka BP. The youngest (35,864–34,765 cal BP) come from the area around Bishopbriggs in western central Scotland and are derived from glaciofluvial sand and gravel overlain by till, both deposited during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) glaciation. A previous radiocarbon date from the site suggested that woolly rhinoceros lived c. 27 ¹⁴C ka BP and the region was ice-free at the time. This date has had significant influence on the timing of extinction of woolly rhinoceros and the onset of glaciation over Britain during the LGM. The new dates revise this earlier determination and confirm that woolly rhinoceros became extinct in Britain after c. 35 cal ka BP, that central Scotland was ice-free at this time, and glaciation extended across this region sometime after 35 cal ka BP.