A Paddock to reef monitoring and modelling framework for the Great Barrier Reef: Paddock and catchment component

Targets for improvements in water quality entering the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) have been set through the Reef Water Quality Protection Plan (Reef Plan). To measure and report on progress towards the targets set a program has been established that combines monitoring and modelling at paddock through to catchment and reef scales; the Paddock to Reef Integrated Monitoring, Modelling and Reporting Program (Paddock to Reef Program). This program aims to provide evidence of links between land management activities, water quality and reef health. Five lines of evidence are used: the effectiveness of management practices to improve water quality; the prevalence of management practice adoption and change in catchment indicators; long-term monitoring of catchment water quality; paddock & catchment modelling to provide a relative assessment of progress towards meeting targets; and finally marine monitoring of GBR water quality and reef ecosystem health. This paper outlines the first four lines of evidence.     

Lava penetrating water: the different behaviours of pāhoehoe and ‘a‘ā at the Nesjahraun, Tingvellir, Iceland

The Nesjahraun is a basaltic lava flow erupted from a subaerial fissure, extending NE along the Tingvellir graben from the Hengill central volcano that produced pāhoehoe lava followed by ‘a‘ā. The Nesjahraun entered Iceland’s largest lake, Tingvallavatn, along its southern shore during both phases of the eruption and exemplifies lava flowing into water in a lacustrine environment in the absence of powerful wave action. This study combines airborne light detection and ranging, sidescan sonar and Chirp seismic data with field observations to investigate the behaviour of the lava as it entered the water. Pāhoehoe sheet lava was formed during the early stages of the eruption. Along the shoreline, stacks of thin (5–20 cm thick), vesicular, flows rest upon and surround low (<5 m) piles of coarse, unconsolidated, variably oxidised spatter. Clefts within the lava run inland from the lake. These are 2–5 m wide, >2 m deep, ∼50 m long, spaced ∼50 m apart and have sub-horizontal striations on the walls. They likely represent channels or collapsed tubes along which lava was delivered into the water. A circular rootless cone, Eldborg, formed when water infiltrated a lava tube. Offshore from the pāhoehoe lavas, the gradient of the flow surface steepens, suggesting a change in flow regime and the development of a talus ramp. Later, the flow was focused into a channel of ‘a‘ā lava, ∼200–350 m wide. This split into individual flow lobes 20–50 m wide along the shore. ‘A‘ā clinker is exposed on the water’s edge, as well as glassy sand and gravel, which has been locally intruded by small (<1 m), irregularly shaped, lava bodies. The cores of the flow lobes contain coherent, but hackly fractured lava. Mounds consisting predominantly of scoria lapilli and the large paired half-cone of Grámelur were formed in phreatomagmatic explosions. The ‘a‘ā flow can be identified underwater over 1 km offshore, and the sidescan data suggest that the flow lobes remained coherent flowing down a gradient of <10°. The Nesjahraun demonstrates that, even in the absence of ocean waves, phreatomagmatic explosions are ubiquitous and that pāhoehoe flows are much more likely to break up on entering the water than ‘a‘ā flows, which, with a higher flux and shallow underlying surface gradient, can penetrate water and remain coherent over distances of at least 1 km.     

Identification of rural land management signals in runoff response

Rural land management signals in catchment‐scale runoff have proven difficult to identify in general. The Pontbren experimental catchment in upland Wales, UK, provides a new data set with which to address this challenge. This data set includes more than 4 years of data from six tipping bucket rainfall gauges and eight stream flow gauges representing different land management regimes at different scales. Data‐based mechanistic rainfall–runoff models were fitted to this data set using the CAPTAIN toolbox. The spatial and temporal variabilities of model parameters were identified and interpreted where possible. The analysis highlighted a dependency between the modelled residence time and the presence of agriculturally improved grassland, which produced a flashier response than grassland in a more natural condition. Another factor found to strongly affect the spatial variability of runoff response was the presence of lakes, while catchment area had a less pronounced effect, and the influence of trees, steepness and soil type could not be identified. Some time variability of response was observed but this was not consistent across the catchment and could not easily be interpreted. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modeling a major source of economic resilience to disasters: recapturing lost production

Terrorist attacks and natural disasters have potentially severe economic consequences in terms of property damage and business interruption. However, experience from the September 11 World Trade Center attack and other disasters indicates that the economy has a great deal of resilience. This refers to the ability to dampen the maximum potential economic output (business interruption) loss. One of the most prominent sources of resilience is the ability of businesses to reschedule, or recapture, lost production after the event. Although there have been applications of a fixed parameter recapture factor for each of several aggregated sectors of the economy, there has been little formal analysis of this resilience action. This study offers a theoretic framework for analyzing production rescheduling. It distinguishes the major conditions influencing two aspects that have previously been neglected: (1) the maximum time span over which the rescheduling can take place and (2) the likely decline of the maximum recapture as the business interruption increases. We divide the relevant time path into two periods after recovery. One is a function of a recaptured output path after recovery to the status of normal production. The other is a function for the maximum recaptured production, based on the recaptured output path. The recaptured output path function is assumed to follow a normal distribution function, and hence, total recaptured output follows the cumulative normal distribution function over time after productive capacity is restored. Also, we develop a new cumulative normal distribution function for interruption time duration, which is symmetric with respect to the output axis. This recapture function has unknown parameters. Empirical data on the recaptured amounts following an actual disaster can be used to estimate the parameters of this function using simulation methods.     

The decay of the mean solar magnetic field

We have analyzed the effects that differential rotation and a hypothetical meridional flow would have on the evolution of the Sun's mean line-of-sight magnetic field as seen from Earth. By winding the large-scale field into strips of alternating positive and negative polarity, differential rotation causes the mean-field amplitude to decay and the mean-field rotation period to acquire the value corresponding to the latitude of the surviving unwound magnetic flux. For a latitudinally broad two-sector initial field such as a horizontal dipole, the decay is rapid for about 5 rotations and slow with a t ^–1/2 dependence thereafter. If a poleward meridional flow is present, it will accelerate the decay by carrying the residual flux to high latitudes where the line-of-sight components are small. The resulting decay is exponential with an e-folding time of 0.75 yr (10 rotations) for an assumed 15 m s^–1 peak meridional flow speed.E.O. Hulburt Center for Space Research.Laboratory for Computational Physics.     

Spatial variability of snowmelt timing from AMSR‐E and SSM/I passive microwave sensors,Pelly River,Yukon Territory,Canada

Spring snow melt run‐off in high latitude and snow‐dominated drainage basins is generally the most significant annual hydrological event. Melt timing, duration, and flow magnitude are highly variable and influence regional climate, geomorphology, and hydrology. Arctic and sub‐arctic regions have sparse long‐term ground observations and these snow‐dominated hydrologic regimes are sensitive to the rapidly warming climate trends that characterize much of the northern latitudes. Passive microwave brightness temperatures are sensitive to changes in the liquid water content of the snow pack and make it possible to detect incipient melt, diurnal melt‐refreeze cycles, and the approximate end of snow cover on the ground over large regions. Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR‐E) passive microwave brightness temperatures (T_b) and diurnal amplitude variations (DAV) are used to investigate the spatial variability of snowmelt onset timing (in two stages, ‘DAV onset’ and ‘melt onset’) and duration for a complex sub‐arctic landscape during 2005. The satellites are sensitive to small percentages of liquid water, and therefore represent ‘incipient melt’, a condition somewhat earlier than a traditional definition of a melting snowpack. Incipient melt dates and duration are compared to topography, land cover, and hydrology to investigate the strength and significance of melt timing in heterogeneous landscapes in the Pelly River, a major tributary to the Yukon River. Microwave‐derived melt onset in this region in 2005 occurred from late February to late April. Upland areas melt 1–2 weeks later than lowland areas and have shorter transition periods. Melt timing and duration appear to be influenced by pixel elevation, aspect, and uniformity as well as other factors such as weather and snow mass distribution. The end of the transition season is uniform across sensors and across the basin in spite of a wide variety of pixel characteristics. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Preliminary evidence for human fecal contamination in corals of the Florida Keys,USA

Corals and reef environments are under increased stress from anthropogenic activities, particularly those in the vicinity of heavily populated areas such as the Florida Keys. The potential adverse impacts of wastewater can affect both the environment and human health; however, because of the high decay rate of bacterial indicators in coral reef waters it has been difficult to document the presence of microbial contaminants and to assign risks in these environments. Here we show initial evidence that microorganisms associated with human feces are concentrated along the surface of coral heads relative to the overlying water column in the Florida Keys. Bacterial indicators (fecal coliform bacteria, enterococci or Clostridium perfringens) were detected in 66.7% of the coral surface microlayer (CSM) samples at levels between five and 1000 CFU/100 ml, but were found infrequently and at low numbers in the overlying water column ( < or = 2.5 CFU/100 ml). Similarly, enterovirus nucleic acid sequences, an indicator of human-specific waste, were detected in 93.3% of the CSM samples and only once in the water column by cell culture. Results show that coral mucus may accumulate enteric microorganisms in reef environments, and may indicate a risk to public and environmental health despite low indicator levels in the surrounding water.     

‘Development’, resistance and the geographies of affect in Oecussi: Timor‐Leste's Special Economic Zone (ZEESM)

In 2013, it was announced that Timor‐Leste's Oecussi enclave would become the site of a special economic zone. Arid, and inhabited mostly by semi‐subsistence farmers from West Timor's Meto ethno‐linguistic group, the plan entails remaking the enclave as an industrial, transport and tourism hub. To facilitate this, in mid‐2015 the authorities began the process of clearing hundreds of indigenous gardens and homes from land slated for mega‐projects intended to make the region attractive to foreign investors. In this paper, I describe how, for many Meto, land tends to be experienced as a spiritually mediated ‘geography of affect’ (Lea & Woodward, 2010) in which questions of place, belonging, spirituality and personal fortune cannot easily be divided, a reality that raises questions about the suitability of the plan's vision of globalized and investment driven ‘development’. Drawing on Scott, I argue that in Oecussi, spirits associated with the land are not apolitical, but are sometimes perceived as acting to protect locals against powerful outsiders – a characteristically Meto ‘weapon of the weak’ that is in keeping with their previous encounters with colonial regimes.