Effectiveness of the Bjerknes stability index in representing ocean dynamics

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring coupled phenomenon originating in the tropical Pacific Ocean that relies on ocean–atmosphere feedbacks. The Bjerknes stability index (BJ index), derived from the mixed-layer heat budget, aims to quantify the ENSO feedback process in order to explore the linear stability properties of ENSO. More recently, the BJ index has been used for model intercomparisons, particularly for the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. This study investigates the effectiveness of the BJ index in representing the key ENSO ocean feedbacks—namely the thermocline, zonal advective, and Ekman feedbacks—by evaluating the amplitudes and phases of the BJ index terms against the corresponding heat budget terms from which they were derived. The output from Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator Ocean Model (a global ocean/sea ice flux-forced model) is used to calculate the heat budget in the equatorial Pacific. Through the model evaluation process, the robustness of the BJ index terms are tested. We find that the BJ index overestimates the relative importance of the thermocline feedback to the zonal advective feedback when compared with the corresponding terms from the heat budget equation. The assumption of linearity between variables in the BJ index formulation is the primary reason for these differences. Our results imply that a model intercomparison relying on the BJ index to explain ENSO behavior is not necessarily an accurate quantification of dynamical differences between models that are inherently nonlinear. For these reasons, the BJ index may not fully explain underpinning changes in ENSO under global warming scenarios.     

Sensitivity and cost considerations for the detection and eradication of marine pests in ports

Port surveys are being conducted in Australia, New Zealand and around the world to confirm the presence or absence of particular marine pests. The most critical aspect of these surveys is their sensitivity-the probability that they will correctly identify a species as present if indeed it is present. This is not, however, adequately addressed in the relevant national and international standards. Simple calculations show that the sensitivity of port survey methods is closely related to their encounter rate-the average number of target individuals expected to be detected by the method. The encounter rate (which reflects any difference in relative pest density), divided by the cost of the method, provides one way to compare the cost-effectiveness of different survey methods. The most cost-effective survey method is site- and species-specific but, in general, will involve sampling from the habitat with the highest expected population of target individuals. A case study of Perna viridis in Trinity Inlet, Cairns, demonstrates that plankton trawls processed with gene probes provide the same level of sensitivity for a fraction of the cost associated with the next best available method-snorkel transects in bad visibility (secchi depth=0.72 m). Visibility and the adult/larvae ratio, however, are critical to these arguments. If visibility were good (secchi depth=10 m), the two approaches would be comparable. Diver deployed quadrats were at least three orders of magnitude less cost-effective in this case study. It is very important that environmental managers and scientists perform sensitivity calculations before embarking on port surveys to ensure the highest level of sensitivity is achieved for any given budget.     

Correlation between rainfall and dust occurrence at mildura,Australia: The difference between local and source area rainfalls

In studies of temporal variation in dust activity, rainfall recorded at the same location as the dust events (local rainfall) has commonly been used as a climatic control variable. The main objectives of this note are to test the validity of using local rainfall and to determine the improvement in the relationship between rainfall and dust activity that could be achieved by using regional rainfall in the dust source area. For the period 1960-1989 at Mildura, Australia, the likely dust source area was identified by analysing wind direction during dust events. It was found that a marked improvement in the correlation between dust activity and antecedent rainfall can be achieved by using the regional source area rainfall rather than local rainfall. The improved correlation suggests that widespread drought is more important than local below-average rainfall in intensifying dust activity.     

Mobility of rare-earth elements and copper during shear-zone-related retrograde metamorphism

In Mid Proterozoic crystalline rocks of the Mount Isa Inlier, around Cloncurry, Australia, 2000 km² of alteration and brecciation are the product of high-temperature (> 450 °C) concentrated saline solution activity. During retrogression, this fluid was locally responsible for mobility of V, Y, Nb and light rare-earth elements (15 × enrichment). Copper and S were leached during alteration and this may have been a significant source of components in nearby Cu-Au deposits. Similar rare-earth-element behaviour has been observed in the hematite breccias which host Cu-sulfides at the giant Olympic Dam Cu-Au deposit.     

A pedogenic goethite record of soil CO2 variations as a response to soil moisture content

The terrestrial carbon cycle and the role of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations in controlling global temperatures can be inferred from the study of ancient soils (paleosols). Soil-formed goethite and calcite have been the primary minerals used as a geochemical proxy for reconstructing atmospheric pCO₂ from ancient terrestrial records. In the case of goethite, optimum sampling strategies for reconstructing pCO₂ focus on the portion of the soil profile that displays steep gradients in both soil CO₂ concentration and δ¹³C values of soil CO₂ such that a keeling plot can be developed for a given soil and atmospheric pCO₂ can be calculated from it. We report data from a Carboniferous paleosol that depart from the expected linear trends. The results indicate that pedogenic goethite is sensitive to variations in the isotopic composition of soil CO₂, over a range of timescales, and can record these variations in the carbon isotope composition and mole fraction of Fe(CO₃)OH in solid solution with goethite. We explore possible environmental conditions that can drive these changes as a function of either moisture controlled variations in soil respired CO₂ or in the residence time of carbon in soils. The implications of this result are overestimation of paleoatmospheric pCO₂ from pedogenic goethite.     

An annually resolved bristlecone pine carbon isotope chronology for the last millennium

We present the first near millennium-length, annually resolved stable isotope record from bristlecone pines (Pinus longaeva, D.K Bailey). The carbon isotope ratios from the cellulose of seven trees from the White Mountains of California, corrected for anthropogenic changes in atmospheric chemistry, are used to reconstruct growing season (June through August) precipitation back to AD 1085. Extremely negative isotope results are strongly correlated with proposed severest El Niño events over the last 500 yr, and similar values in the first half of the millennium are used to reconstruct a further 13 strong El Niño events, concentrated in the 12th Century and the mid 13th and 14th Centuries. Ring-width chronologies from adjacent sites in the White Mountains demonstrate a high degree of decadal covariance with the δ¹³C series, although there are several periods of notable divergence.     

Multiproxy record for the last 4500 years from Lake Shkodra (Albania/Montenegro)

A multi‐proxy record is presented for approximately the last 4500 cal a BP from Lake Shkodra, Albania/Montenegro. Lithological analyses, C/N ratio and δ¹³C of the organic and inorganic carbon component suggest that organic matter and bulk carbonate are predominantly authigenic. The δ¹⁸O record of bulk carbonate indicates the presence of two prominent wet periods: one at ca. 4300 cal a BP and one at ca. 2500–2000 cal a BP. The latter phase is also found in southern Spain and Central Italy, and represents a prominent event in the western and central Mediterranean. In the last 2000 years, four relatively wet intervals occurred between ca. 1800 and 1500 cal a BP (150–450 AD), 1350–1250 (600–700 AD), 1100–800 (850–1150 AD), and at ca. 90 cal a BP (1860 AD). Between ca. 4100 and 2500 cal a BP δ¹⁸O values are relatively high, with three prominent peaks indicating drier conditions at ca. 4100–4000 cal a BP, ca. 3500 and at ca. 3300 cal a BP. Four additional drier events are identified at 1850 (ca. 100 AD), 1400 (ca. 550 AD), 1150 (800 AD) and ca.750 cal a BP (1200 AD). The pollen record does not show changes in accordance with these episodes owing to the poor sensitivity of vegetation in this area, which is dominated by an orographic rainfall effect and where changes in altitudinal vegetation belts do not affect the pollen rain in the lake catchment. However, since ca. 900 cal a BP a significant decrease in the percentage arboreal pollen and in pollen concentrations suggest major deforestation produced by human activities. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Titanium in subduction zone fluids: First insights from abinitio molecular metadynamics simulations

The preferential incorporation of High-Field-Strength Elements (HFSE) in rutile (TiO₂), combined with its supposed stability in subduction zone settings, make it an ideal candidate to explain the low HFSE concentrations in subduction-derived magmas. The solubility behaviour of rutile is key to these arguments, but at present experimental and field-based evidence are contradictory.We have used abinitio molecular (meta)dynamics to investigate the coordination environment of Ti(IV) in pure water at 300 and 1000 K and densities ranging from 900-1260 kg m⁻³ (approximate pressures 0.9-3.6 GPa). In all high temperature simulations, the long-range structure of the solvent indicates a breakdown of the hydrogen bonding network as expected for supercritical water. The five-fold coordination of titanium to water is energetically most favourable in aqueous fluids at room temperature and pressure, separated from four and six-fold configurations by ∼175 and ∼200 kJ mol⁻¹, respectively. The average first shell Ti-O distance is 2.00 Å, in excellent agreement with bond lengths obtained from experiments. At similar densities and 1000 K, titanium is on average six-fold coordinate with water, and shows some degree of water dissociation in the first hydration shell. This coordination environment is remarkably persistent with increasing density from 1021 to 1260 kg m⁻³ at constant temperature (1000 K). At lower densities, however, (900 kg m⁻³ at 1000 K), the coordination with first shell water molecules is less than five. The observed coordination changes could promote association of titanium with peralkaline or peraluminous domains in the aqueous fluid, and thereby explain field-and laboratory based evidence of enhanced HFSE concentrations.This study demonstrates that abinitio molecular dynamics has considerable potential to access details of element behaviour in aqueous fluids at geologically relevant conditions that are impossible to examine otherwise. Changes in the solvent structure due to density variations lead to differences in solvent behaviour allowing access to new domains for fluid-solid interaction. Moreover, changes in the solvent structure are strongly linked to the effectiveness of element solvation.     

The discovery of Isocrinus cf. robustus from the Lias Group (Lower Jurassic) near Dunrobin Castle, Sutherland, Scotland

A single stem section (pluricolumnal) belonging to a post-Palaeozoic crinoid (sea lily) is reported from a small outcrop of Lower Jurassic Lias Group strata exposed in low cliff near Dunrobin Castle. This is the first Jurassic crinoid recorded from Eastern Scotland and the small fragment has enough diagnostic characters to be assigned to the species Isocrinus cf. robustus; a crinoid found commonly in the Lower Jurassic of England. The Scottish form collected has unusual morphology that is atypical of the genus.