Non-stationary frequency analysis of heavy rainfall events in southern France

Abstract

Heavy rainfall events often occur in southern French Mediterranean regions during the autumn, leading to catastrophic flood events. A non-stationary peaks-over-threshold (POT) model with climatic covariates for these heavy rainfall events is developed herein. A regional sample of events exceeding the threshold of 100 mm/d is built using daily precipitation data recorded at 44 stations over the period 1958–2008. The POT model combines a Poisson distribution for the occurrence and a generalized Pareto distribution for the magnitude of the heavy rainfall events. The selected covariates are the seasonal occurrence of southern circulation patterns for the Poisson distribution parameter, and monthly air temperature for the generalized Pareto distribution scale parameter. According to the deviance test, the non-stationary model provides a better fit to the data than a classical stationary model. Such a model incorporating climatic covariates instead of time allows one to re-evaluate the risk of extreme precipitation on a monthly and seasonal basis, and can also be used with climate model outputs to produce future scenarios. Existing scenarios of the future changes projected for the covariates included in the model are tested to evaluate the possible future changes on extreme precipitation quantiles in the study area.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor K. Hamed

Citation Tramblay, Y., Neppel, L., Carreau, J., and Najib, K., 2013. Non-stationary frequency analysis of heavy rainfall events in southern France. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (2), 280–294.     

Solar forcing on antarctic terrestrial climate: A study by means of GPS observations

With a view to difficulties with explaining the physical mechanism of solar forcing on the Earth’s climate, we applied a new approach of determining and quantifying an influence of solar-related events on water vapor variability by correlating the total electron content (TEC) and precipitable water vapor (PWV), both derived from ground-based GPS observations. In this study, ionospheric TEC and atmospheric PWV values are employed as solar activity and terrestrial climate parameters, respectively. Three-year GPS data at five stations in Antarctica are analyzed on a daily mean basis. Results show significant correlation between TEC and PWV differences during storms-affected days. The high correlation between the daily mean values of TEC and PWV, both of which follow the seasonal signals and subsisting downward trend, suggests an influence of solar activity on climate variability in Antarctica. These quantities are determined by changes of the upper-atmosphere level, which varies in conformity with the zenith angle of the Sun.     

Sustainable development and anthropogenic induced geomorphic hazards in subsiding areas

In many areas of the world, subsidence related to the lowering of the water table is modifying the landscape and provoking costly environmental hazards. We consider the Dead Sea (the Earth's lowest lake) as a model. Its water level was 395 m bMSL in the 1960s. Due to water diversions in the catchment area, as of 2016, the level has dropped to about 430 m bMSL. Here, as in other parts of the Anthropocene world, from China, to Iran, to Turkey, to Canada and the United States, consequences of human interventions are rapidly modifying the environment. Aggressive geomorphic processes leading to accelerated degradations are taking place and affecting landforms and infrastructures. In Tectonic terms, the lake is a pull‐apart basin resulting from the motion of the Dead Sea Transform fault. Since the 1960s, a slice of brine of about 35 km³ has been lost. The water table is dropping more rapidly in the lake than in the coastal zone creating an ever‐increasing head difference. Consequently, groundwater moves towards the sea to compensate for the imbalance, provoking the reactivation of the area's paleo‐channels with subsidence, sinkholes, and landslides. Since the 1980s, industrial‐touristic infrastructure has covered newly emerging lands in geomorphic hazards‐prone areas of the coastal zone. Time series analysis of high to very high resolution visible/radar satellite images acquired from the 1970s to present, revealed major landscape evolution. Such dynamic systems prevailing in recent decades permitted the study of human/environment interactions to help minimize their effects. Major deformations of an industrial dike were analysed and quantified. The results underline the necessity in the Anthropocene of careful analysis of relevant data sources acquired before and during subsidence, particularly in karst topography zones and prior to the development of major human activities in economically appealing environments around the world. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Detection of multiple potentially pathogenic bacteria in Matang mangrove estuaries,Malaysia

The deltaic estuarine system of the Matang Mangrove Forest Reserve of Malaysia is a site where several human settlements and brackish water aquaculture have been established. Here, we evaluated the level of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) and the presence of potentially pathogenic bacteria in the surface water and sediments. Higher levels of FIB were detected at downstream sampling sites from the fishing village, indicating it as a possible source of anthropogenic pollution to the estuary. Enterococci levels in the estuarine sediments were higher than in the surface water, while total coliforms and E. coli in the estuarine sediments were not detected in all samples. Also, various types of potentially pathogenic bacteria, including Klebsiella pneumoniae, Serratia marcescens and Enterobacter cloacae were isolated. The results indicate that the Matang estuarine system is contaminated with various types of potential human bacterial pathogens which might pose a health risk to the public.     

Utilization of bituminous limestone ash from EL-Lajjun area in production of lightweight Masonry block

The following work aims at minimizing the environmental impact of the solid wastes (ash) that is produced after the utilization of the bituminous limestone in thermal power stations and/or retorting processes. The laboratory tests have been selected with respect to construction needs and possible post construction conditions. Utilization of the various types of ash in the production of lightweight concrete block has revealed optimum results. The compressive strength of various ash–glass sand mixes has ranged between 19 and 76 kg/cm² at 28 days. The compressive strength of ash–tuff mixes has ranged between 54 and 63 kg/cm² at 28 days. Ultra light mixtures using ash–polyester with a density of 0.88 kg/m³ and a compressive strength of 21 kg/cm² at 28 days are produced at normal room curing temperature without the use of ordinary Portland cement. The high alkalinity of El-Lajjun ash is considered a disadvantage when utilized in normal concrete mixes for structural purposes. Ash only can be mixed with aggregates to produce lean concrete for blinding purposes for use in foundations.     

Two‐dimensional modelling of ice cover effects for the dynamic analysis of concrete gravity dams

A two‐dimensional numerical model for determining the effects of the presence of an ice cover on the dynamic behaviour of large gravity dams is presented. Analytical predictions are compared to results obtained during a series of extensive dynamic tests on a large gravity dam. Data were obtained during summer and severe winter conditions to investigate the dynamic interactions between the dam, foundation, reservoir and the ice cover. The analysis includes ice‐reservoir interaction as well as the effects of water compressibility, flexible foundation and reservoir bottom absorption. Good agreement with the experimental findings is obtained. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

HEAVY METAL POLLUTION IN SURFACE SEDIMENTS COLLECTED FROM DRAINAGES RECEIVING DIFFERENT ANTHROPOGENIC SOURCES FROM PENINSULAR MALAYSIA

Surface drainage sediments were collected, between January and April in 2005, from 6 sampling sites in Peninsular Malaysia suspected to have received different anthropogenic sources. These drainages included sites near a petrochemical plant, an electronic factory, a metal factory and 2 townships in addition to a relatively unpolluted site (a reference site). Based on the aqua-regia method, the metal concentrations for all the sampling sites except for the agricultural site (reference site) at Sg. Benut were between 60.92-1 019 μg/g dry weight for copper (Cu), 65.32-1 266.6μg/g dry weight for plumbum (Pb), 1.46-15.93 μg/g dry weight for cadmium (Cd), 330.10-484.14 μg/g dry weight for zinc (Zn) and 47.03-120.90 μg/g dry weight for nickel (Ni). All of these ranges were significantly (p< 0.05) higher than those (Cu: 8.77 μg/g; Pb: 57.42 μg/g; Cd: 0.96 μg/g; Zn: 68.21 μg/g; and Ni: 17.87 μg/g) of the reference site at Sg. Benut that only received agricultural disposal. The concentrations for the 5 metals from all the sites (except for the reference site) were higher than the Sediment Quality Values for Hong Kong by Chapman et al (1999) for the 5 metals. Based on the sequential extraction technique, 3 geochemical fractions [easily, freely leachable and exchangeable (EFLE), acid-reducible and oxidisable-organic] were also useful in identifying these polluted sites. The elevated metal concentrations found in the sediments might be related to point sources of industrial effluent and urban waste. Hence, the results emphasized the necessity for the treatment of effluents into this drainage area. As part of the effort to control illegal discharges and dumping into drainages, public awareness should be enhanced.