The integrated impacts of human activities and rising sea level on the saltwater intrusion in the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula,Mexico

Natural Hazards - Saltwater intrusion is a major hazard to coastal communities as it causes degradation of fresh water resources. The impact of rising sea level on the saltwater intrusion into...     

A changing nutrient regime in the Gulf of Maine

Recent oceanographic observations and a retrospective analysis of nutrients and hydrography over the past five decades have revealed that the principal source of nutrients to the Gulf of Maine, the deep, nutrient-rich continental slope waters that enter at depth through the Northeast Channel, may have become less important to the Gulf's nutrient load. Since the 1970s, the deeper waters in the interior Gulf of Maine (>100 m) have become fresher and cooler, with lower nitrate (NO₃) but higher silicate (Si(OH)₄) concentrations. Prior to this decade, nitrate concentrations in the Gulf normally exceeded silicate by 4–5 μM, but now silicate and nitrate are nearly equal. These changes only partially correspond with that expected from deep slope water fluxes correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, and are opposite to patterns in freshwater discharges from the major rivers in the region. We suggest that accelerated melting in the Arctic and concomitant freshening of the Labrador Sea in recent decades have likely increased the equatorward baroclinic transport of the inner limb of the Labrador Current that flows over the broad continental shelf from the Grand Banks of Newfoundland to the Gulf of Maine. That current system now brings a greater fraction of colder and fresher deep shelf waters into the Gulf than warmer and saltier offshore slope waters which were previously thought to dominate the flux of nutrients. Those deep shelf waters reflect nitrate losses from sediment denitrification and silicate accumulations from rivers and in situ regeneration, which together are altering the nutrient regime and potentially the structure of the planktonic ecosystem.     

Does geographic location impact the survival differential between screen- and interval-detected breast cancers?

Although mammography screening programs aim to diagnose breast cancer at an early stage, not all tumours are detected during the regular screening examination. This study examines the influence of various characteristics, including geographical residence, on the survival between screen- and interval-detected breast cancers among participants of a public population-based breast screening program in Queensland, Australia. The investigation was performed using the linked population-based datasets from BreastScreen Queensland and the Queensland Cancer Registry for the period of 1997–2008 for women aged 40–89 years at diagnosis. A Bayesian spatial relative survival modelling approach that accommodates rare outcomes in small geographic regions was adopted, with the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo computation, to evaluate the relative excess risk of breast cancer. In the multivariate Bayesian spatial model, higher relative excess risk of mortality was observed in interval-detected cancer (RER = 1.59, 95 % credible interval = [1.33, 1.89]) compared to screen-detected cancer. Higher cancer survival among the study cohort was also observed among younger women (40–59 years), those of non-Indigenous ethnicity, with localised (stage I) tumour stage as well as those not in the work force. There was no independent association with marital status. Moreover, there was no substantive evidence of either measured geographical or latent random spatial inequalities in survival among screening participants across Queensland, meaning the higher survival for screen-detected breast cancer patients compared to interval-detected women was consistent across the state. These results provide suggestive evidence supporting the effectiveness of the BreastScreen Queensland screening program in reaching socio-economically disadvantaged women as well as those living in rural and remote areas of the state, but also highlights the need for any interval cancer awareness programs to be geographically widespread.     

Significance of river–aquifer interactions for reach-scale thermal patterns and trout growth potential in the Motueka River, New Zealand

To assess whether reaches of the Motueka River (New Zealand) that gain water from groundwater were likely to represent significant cold-water refugia for brown trout during periods of high water temperatures, water temperature was monitored for more than 18 months in two gaining reaches of the Motueka River and three reaches that were predicted to be losing water to groundwater. These data were used to predict brown trout (Salmo trutta) growth in gaining and losing reaches. Groundwater inputs had a small effect on water temperature at the reach-scale and modelling suggests that the differences observed were unlikely to result in appreciable differences in trout growth. Several coldwater patches were identified within the study reach that were up to 3.5°C cooler than the mainstem, but these were generally shallow and were unlikely to provide refuge for adult trout. The exception was Hinetai Spring, which had a mean water temperature of close to 16°C during the period January–March, when temperatures in the mainstem regularly exceeded 19°C. Trout were observed within the cold-water plume at the mouth of Hinetai Stream, which would allow them to thermoregulate when mainstem temperatures are unfavourable while still being able to capitalise on food resources available in the mainstem.     

Function of Soils for Human Societies and Environment

This study assessed the spatial distribution of vulnerability to extreme heat in 1990 and 2000 within metropolitan Phoenix based on an index of seven equally weighted measures of physical exposure and adaptive capacity. These measures were derived from spatially interpolated climate, normalized differential vegetation index, and U.S. Census data. From resulting vulnerability maps, we also analyzed population groups living in areas of high heat vulnerability. Results revealed that landscapes of heat vulnerability changed substantially in response to variations in physical and socioeconomic factors, with significant alterations to spatial distribution of vulnerability especially between eastern and western sectors of Phoenix. These changes worked to the detriment of Phoenix's Hispanic population and the elderly concentrated in urban-fringe retirement communities.     

Stability and stable modes of coastal fronts

Abstract

The stability of a single layer, geostrophic front of zero potential vorticity bounded by a vertical coast (wall) is investigated by means of a Rayleigh integral. It is proved that the flow of the density-driven current is stable at all wavenumbers provided the mean velocity of basic flow exceeds fL (where f is the Coriolis parameter and L is the distance between the wall and the free streamline). The frequency of the stable long waves is either zero or super-inertial.     

A note on the use of zero potential vorticity models

Abstract

The acceptability of zero potential vorticity models as approximations for natural systems of small, but finite, potential vorticity is studied for bounded frontal flows of arbitrary profile. It is demonstrated that all (infinitely) long-wave solutions of the zero potential vorticity front are asymptotic limits for some (not necessarily long-wave) solutions of the small potential vorticity front. In contrast, for downstream-varying solutions there is no simple way of demonstrating this property. These findings suggest that the use of zero potential vorticity models should be carefully examined in other, non-frontal, problems as well. Finally we show that the longwave solutions of the zero potential vorticity flow are at most neutral (quasi-stable).     

Prediction and modelling of rainfall–runoff during typhoon events using a physically-based and artificial neural network hybrid model

Abstract

The accurate prediction of hourly runoff discharge in a watershed during heavy rainfall events is of critical importance for flood control and management. This study predicts n-h-ahead runoff discharge in the Sandimen basin in southern Taiwan using a novel hybrid approach which combines a physically-based model (HEC-HMS) with an artificial neural network (ANN) model. Hourly runoff discharge data (1200 datasets) from seven heavy rainfall events were collected for the model calibration (training) and validation. Six statistical indicators (i.e. mean absolute error, root mean square error, coefficient of correlation, error of time to peak discharge, error of peak discharge and coefficient of efficiency) were employed to evaluate the performance. In comparison with the HEC-HMS model, the single ANN model, and the time series forecasting (ARMAX) model, the developed hybrid HEC-HMS–ANN model demonstrates improved accuracy in recursive n-h-ahead runoff discharge prediction, especially for peak flow discharge and time.