Potential implications of global warming and barrier island degradation on future hurricane inundation,property damages,and population impacted

Hurricane flooding is a leading natural threat to coastal communities. Recent evidence of sea level rise coupled with potential future global warming indicate that sea level rise will accelerate and hurricanes may intensify over the coming decades. In regions fronted by barrier islands, the protective capacity of these islands may diminish as they are degraded by rising sea level. Here we present a hydrodynamic and geospatial analysis of the relative role of barrier island degradation on potential future hurricane flooding. For the City of Corpus Christi, Texas, USA, hurricane flooding is projected to rise between 20% and 70% by the 2030s, resulting in an increase in property damages and impacted population. These findings indicate that adaptive management strategies should be developed and adopted for mitigating loss of natural barrier islands when these islands act as protective features for populated bayside communities. Finally, this study illustrates a method for applying models to forecast future storm protection benefits of barrier island restoration projects.     

Application and evaluation of a snowmelt runoff model in the Tamor River basin,Eastern Himalaya using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) data assimilation approach

Previous studies have drawn attention to substantial hydrological changes taking place in mountainous watersheds where hydrology is dominated by cryospheric processes. Modelling is an important tool for understanding these changes but is particularly challenging in mountainous terrain owing to scarcity of ground observations and uncertainty of model parameters across space and time. This study utilizes a Markov Chain Monte Carlo data assimilation approach to examine and evaluate the performance of a conceptual, degree‐day snowmelt runoff model applied in the Tamor River basin in the eastern Nepalese Himalaya. The snowmelt runoff model is calibrated using daily streamflow from 2002 to 2006 with fairly high accuracy (average Nash–Sutcliffe metric ~0.84, annual volume bias < 3%). The Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach constrains the parameters to which the model is most sensitive (e.g. lapse rate and recession coefficient) and maximizes model fit and performance. Model simulated streamflow using an interpolated precipitation data set decreases the fractional contribution from rainfall compared with simulations using observed station precipitation. The average snowmelt contribution to total runoff in the Tamor River basin for the 2002–2006 period is estimated to be 29.7 ± 2.9% (which includes 4.2 ± 0.9% from snowfall that promptly melts), whereas 70.3 ± 2.6% is attributed to contributions from rainfall. On average, the elevation zone in the 4000–5500 m range contributes the most to basin runoff, averaging 56.9 ± 3.6% of all snowmelt input and 28.9 ± 1.1% of all rainfall input to runoff. Model simulated streamflow using an interpolated precipitation data set decreases the fractional contribution from rainfall versus snowmelt compared with simulations using observed station precipitation. Model experiments indicate that the hydrograph itself does not constrain estimates of snowmelt versus rainfall contributions to total outflow but that this derives from the degree‐day melting model. Lastly, we demonstrate that the data assimilation approach is useful for quantifying and reducing uncertainty related to model parameters and thus provides uncertainty bounds on snowmelt and rainfall contributions in such mountainous watersheds. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

System versus component response of a two-span reinforced concrete bridge system

A large-scale 20.5 m long asymmetric two-span reinforced concrete bridge was tested to failure using the shake table system at the University of Nevada Reno. Upon completion of testing, in depth analytical modeling was conducted to evaluate the accuracy of conventional methods in reproducing the bridge model response and to develop a model for further study. Utilizing the experimentally verified computer model, the system effect was investigated, comparing the system and response of individual bents as well as the response of several other bridge models. In comparing computational model of the shake table specimen and models of the individual bents with tributary mass, it was shown that for all of the columns in this study, there was generally not an increase in hysteretic energy or large displacement cycles from system response at given displacement demand. The response of the bents for each high amplitude test motion was also compared. It was shown that there were significant differences in the bent demands for a given excitation due to system effects. In addition to the shake table model, four bridge systems with a constant total lateral stiffness were used in a parametric study to determine the system effect. The symmetric and uniform versions of the bridge specimen were shown to be comparable in nonlinear performance to the bridge specimen for the same high amplitude demand. The failure progression of the bridge model and the analytical comparisons suggested that the reserve capacity from varied column heights could provide a beneficial substructure redundancy.     

Vitriclastic lithofacies from Macquarie Island (Southern Ocean): compositional influence on abyssal eruption explosivity in a dying Miocene spreading ridge

Macquarie Island is composed of a complete section of oceanic crust that formed in a slow-spreading mid-ocean ridge 2.0 to 3.5 km below sea level. Vitriclastic facies preserved on the island have both pyroclastic and hyaloclastic characteristics. Monomict hyaloclastic breccia facies are widespread across the island and are predominantly composed of near-primitive (~7.9 wt% MgO) subalkaline/transitional (~0.7 wt% K₂O) sideromelane shards and crystalline basalt clasts with low vesicularity (LV, < 15% vesicles). Breccias are thick bedded and structureless with matrix-supported angular pillow fragments, bomb-sized fluidal mini-pillows, and globular glass lapilli. Clasts are lithologically similar to interbedded pillow basalts and laterally grade into fine-grained sandstone facies. These sandstones are normal-graded, well-laminated, thin bedded, and interstratified with red pelagic mudstone. Lithofacies associations indicate that the hyaloclastic breccias were formed proximal to a source vent via quench-fragmentation, and subsequently reworked by ocean-bottom currents into distal epiclastic sandstone facies. During eruption, co-genetic pillow lava and hypabyssal intrusions mingled with the breccia, forming fluidal peperite. Rare polymict pyroclastic facies only occur in the highest stratigraphic levels and are mostly composed of highly vesicular (HV, 15–50% vesicles) sideromelane shards and crystalline basalt clasts with alkaline (~1.0 wt% K₂O) fractionated (~6.8% MgO) compositions. Minor lithic grains are composed of subalkaline (~0.7 wt% K₂O) to very highly alkaline (~1.7 wt% K₂O) LV sideromelane shards, and amphibole-bearing diabase. The pyroclastic facies contains medium to thick beds of lapilli-tuff that exhibit both reverse and normal grading, diffuse lamination, and planar-grain fabric. These beds are locally overlain by thin fine-grained tuff beds entirely composed of cuspate to very thin elongate bubble-wall shards. These characteristics indicate that explosive deep-marine eruptions produced high-density coarse-grained gravity flows that were covered by slower suspension settle-out of delicate bubble-wall shards. Stratigraphic relationships suggest that explosive eruptions started during the waning stages of more alkaline volcanism along the proto-Macquarie spreading center.     

Internal tide in the Kara Gates Strait

We observed strong internal tidal waves in the Kara Gates Strait. Internal tides are superimposed over a system of mean currents from the Barents to the Kara Sea. Field studies of internal tides in the Kara Gates were performed in 1997, 2007, and 2015. In 2015, we analyzed data from towed CTD measurements, numerical model calculations, and satellite images in the region. An internal tidal wave with a period of 12.4 h is generated due to the interaction between the currents of the barotropic tide and the bottom relief on the slopes of a ridge that crosses the strait from Novaya Zemlya to the continent. The depths of the ridge crest are 30–40 m. A constant current of relatively warm water flows from the Barents to the Kara Sea. An internal wave propagates in both directions from the ridge. In the Barents Sea, internal waves are intensified by the current from the Barents to the Kara Sea. Internal bores followed by a packet of short-period internal waves are found in both directions from the strait. Satellite images show that short-period internal waves are generated after the internal bore. A hydraulic jump was found on the eastern side of the strait. Numerical modeling agrees with the experimental results.     

Influence of road network and population demand assumptions in evacuation modeling for distant tsunamis

Tsunami evacuation planning in coastal communities is typically focused on local events where at-risk individuals must move on foot in a matter of minutes to safety. Less attention has been placed on distant tsunamis, where evacuations unfold over several hours, are often dominated by vehicle use and are managed by public safety officials. Traditional traffic simulation models focus on estimating clearance times but often overlook the influence of varying population demand, alternative modes, background traffic, shadow evacuation, and traffic management alternatives. These factors are especially important for island communities with limited egress options to safety. We use the coastal community of Balboa Island, California (USA), as a case study to explore the range of potential clearance times prior to wave arrival for a distant tsunami scenario. We use a first-in–first-out queuing simulation environment to estimate variations in clearance times, given varying assumptions of the evacuating population (demand) and the road network over which they evacuate (supply). Results suggest clearance times are less than wave arrival times for a distant tsunami, except when we assume maximum vehicle usage for residents, employees, and tourists for a weekend scenario. A two-lane bridge to the mainland was the primary traffic bottleneck, thereby minimizing the effect of departure times, shadow evacuations, background traffic, boat-based evacuations, and traffic light timing on overall community clearance time. Reducing vehicular demand generally reduced clearance time, whereas improvements to road capacity had mixed results. Finally, failure to recognize non-residential employee and tourist populations in the vehicle demand substantially underestimated clearance time.     

Volcanic ash layers in the Upper Cretaceous of the Central Apennines and a numerical age for the early Campanian

At Montagna della Maiella and at Gola del Furlo (central Apennines) two discrete layers of bentonic clay are intercalated within the pelagic (Furlo) and turbiditic/pelagic limestones (Maiella) of the Upper Cretaceous basinal succession of the Umbrian basin (Scaglia facies). The bentonite layers are dated by planktonic foraminifera to the Globotruncanita elevata zone, early Campanian, and by calcareous nannofossils to the Aspidolithus parcus zone (CC 18); they fall into the reversed interval of chron 33. Detailed correlation shows the layers to be of exactly the same age. The upper layer is dated by U/Pb on magmatic zircons to 81.67±0.21 Ma, an age compatible with the Cretaceous time-scale of Obradovich. The mineralogy of the bentonitic clays is almost pure montmorillonite and contrasts sharply with the clay mineral assemblage of the enclosing pelagic and turbiditic limestones, which is dominated by soil-derived smectite and illite in different proportions. The bentonite seams are interpreted as the submarine alteration products of wind-borne volcanic ashes. They can be followed with only minor changes in thickness over 200 km and must be derived from distant volcanic sources and related to extreme volcanic events. A possible source area is present in the Dinarides where Upper Cretaceous subduction-related magmatic rocks are widespread.