Origin of the Earth's ocean basins

The Earth's original ocean basins are proposed to be mare-type basins produced 4 billion y.a. by the flux of asteroid-sized objects responsible for the lunar mare basins. Scaling upward from the observed number of lunar basins for the greater capture cross-section and impact velocity of the Earth indicates that at least 50% of an original global crust would have been converted to basin topography. These basins were flooded by basaltic liquids in times short compared to the isostatic adjustment time for the basin. The modern crustal dichotomy (60% oceanic, 40% continental crust) was established early in the history of the Earth, making possible the later onset of plate tectonic processes. These later processes have subsequently reworked, in several cycles, principally the oceanic parts of the Earth's crust, changing the configuration of the continents in the process. Ocean basins (and oceans themselves) may be rare occurences on planets in other star systems.     

Climate Suitability: For Stable Malaria Transmission in Zimbabwe Under Different Climate Change Scenarios

As climate is one factor determining the potential range of malaria, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission is based on the MARA/ARMA model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using sixteen projections of climate in 2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while the lowveld and areas currently limited by precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used within or across other African countries. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Recent temperature and precipitation increases in West Siberia and their association with the Arctic Oscillation

Surface air temperature and precipitation records for the years 1958-1999 from ten meteorological stations located throughout West Siberia are used to identify climatic trends and determine to what extent these trends are potentially attributable to the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Although recent changes in atmospheric variability are associated with broad Arctic climate change, West Siberia appears particularly susceptible to warming. Furthermore, unlike most of the Arctic, moisture transport in the region is highly variable. The records show that West Siberia is experiencing significant warming and notable increases in precipitation, likely driven, in part, by large-scale Arctic atmospheric variability. Because this region contains a large percentage of the world's peatlands and contributes a significant portion of the total terrestrial freshwater flux to the Arctic Ocean, these recent climatic trends may have globally significant repercussions. The most robust patterns found are strong and prevalent springtime warming, winter precipitation increases, and strong association of non-summer air temperatures with the AO. Warming rates for both spring (0.5-0.8 °C/decade) and annual (0.3-0.5°C/decade) records are statistically significant for nine often stations. On average, the AO is linearly congruent with 96% (winter), 19% (spring), 0% (summer), 67% (autumn) and 53% (annual) of the warming found in this study. Significant trends in precipitation occur most commonly during winter, when four of ten stations exhibit significant increases (4-13 %/decade). The AO may play a lesser role in precipitation variability and is linearly congruent with only 17% (winter), 13% (spring), 12% (summer), 1% (autumn) and 26% (annual) of precipitation trends.     

Petrogenesis of lavas from the AMAR Valley and Narrowgate region of the FAMOUS Valley, 36°–37°N on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge

Basaltic lavas from the AMAR Valley and the Narrowgate region of the FAMOUS Valley on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (36° to 37°?N) range in texture from aphyric to highly plagioclase phyric (>25% large plagioclase phenocrysts). Based on ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ratios, most of these lavas can be subdivided into two distinct, isotopically homogeneous, groups: Group I has lower ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr (0.70288±1) and higher ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd (0.51312±1) ratios; Group II has higher ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr (0.70296±1) and lower ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd (0.51309±2) ratios. Most Group II lavas are aphyric, whereas Group I lavas are primarily plagioclase phyric. Lavas from both groups show a wide range in incompatible element abundance ratios (e.g., Zr/Nb =6–29; (La/Sm)_n=0.6–1.7). Aphyric lavas have relatively constant Sc (40±1.5?ppm) abundances and CaO/Al₂O₃ ratios (0.80±0.02). Group I lavas are confined primarily to the AMAR rift valley floor whereas Group II lavas are found along the east and west marginal highs. We interpret the isotopic differences between the two groups as reflecting a temporal change in the upwelling mantle beneath this region of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge which is south of the Azore Islands. For each group, a petrogenetic model consistent with the geochemical data is multi-stage decompression melting of an initially enriched, homogeneous, mantle source region. If the early derived, incompatible-element enriched, melt increments are not always pooled with subsequent increments, the erupted magma batches may have the major element characteristics of melts derived by 10 to 20% melting, but with incompatible element abundance ratios reflecting the change from an enriched to depleted source during the incremental melting process. In this process an initially homogeneous source can generate primary magmas with the required range in incompatible element abundance ratios shown by each group. The nearly constant CaO/Al₂O₃ ratios and Sc contents of the aphyric lavas with decreasing Mg?? reflects subsequent polybaric fractionation of clinopyroxene, plagioclase and olivine over the pressure interval 8–6?kbar (24–18?km), followed by rapid transport to the surface and eruption. There is no geochemical evidence for a crustal magma chamber beneath this section of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge.     

Do southern Appalachian Mountain summer stream temperatures respond to removal of understory rhododendron thickets?

Dense understory thickets of the native evergreen shrub Rhododendron maximum expanded initially following elimination of American chestnut by the chestnut blight, and later in response to loss of the eastern hemlock due to hemlock woolly adelgid invasion. Rhododendron thickets often blanket streams and their riparian zones, creating cool, low-light microclimates. To determine the effect of such understory thickets on summer stream temperatures, we removed riparian rhododendron understory on 300 m reaches of two southern Appalachian Mountain headwater streams, while leaving two 300 m reference reaches undisturbed. Overhead canopy was left intact in all four streams, but all streams were selected to have a significant component of dead or dying eastern hemlock in the overstory, creating time-varying canopy gaps throughout the reach. We continuously monitored temperatures upstream, within and downstream of treatment and reference reaches. Temperatures were monitored in all four streams in the summer before treatments were imposed (2014), and for two summers following treatment (2015, 2016). Temperatures varied significantly across and within streams prior to treatment and across years for the reference streams. After rhododendron removal, increases in summer stream temperatures were observed at some locations within the treatment reaches, but these increases did not persist downstream and varied by watershed, sensor, and year. Significant increases in daily maxima in treatment reaches ranged from 0.9 to 2.6°C. Overhead canopy provided enough shade to prevent rhododendron removal from increasing summer temperatures to levels deleterious to native cold-water fauna (average summer temperatures remained below 16°C), and local temperature effects were not persistent.     

Improved algorithms for generalized finite element simulations of three-dimensional hydraulic fracture propagation

This paper reports improvements to algorithms for the simulation of 3-D hydraulic fracturing with the Generalized Finite Element Method (GFEM). Three optimizations are presented and analyzed. First, an improved initial guess based on solving a 3-D elastic problem with the pressure from the previous step is shown to decrease the number of Newton iterations and increase robustness. Second, an improved methodology to find the time step that leads to fracture propagation is proposed and shown to decrease significantly the number of iterations. Third, reduced computational cost is observed by properly recycling the linear part of the coupled stiffness matrix. Two representative examples are used to analyze these improvements. Additionally, a methodology to include the leak-off term is presented and verified against asymptotic analytical solutions. Conservation of mass is shown to be well satisfied in all examples.     

A robust debris-flow and GLOF risk management strategy for a data-scarce catchment in Santa Teresa,Peru

The town of Santa Teresa (Cusco Region, Peru) has been affected by several large debris-flow events in the recent past, which destroyed parts of the town and resulted in a resettlement of the municipality. Here, we present a risk analysis and a risk management strategy for debris-flows and glacier lake outbursts in the Sacsara catchment. Data scarcity and limited understanding of both physical and social processes impede a full quantitative risk assessment. Therefore, a bottom-up approach is chosen in order to establish an integrated risk management strategy that is robust against uncertainties in the risk analysis. With the Rapid Mass Movement Simulation (RAMMS) model, a reconstruction of a major event from 1998 in the Sacsara catchment is calculated, including a sensitivity analysis for various model parameters. Based on the simulation results, potential future debris-flows scenarios of different magnitudes, including outbursts of two glacier lakes, are modeled for assessing the hazard. For the local communities in the catchment, the hazard assessment is complemented by the analysis of high-resolution satellite imagery and fieldwork. Physical, social, economic, and institutional vulnerability are considered for the vulnerability assessment, and risk is eventually evaluated by crossing the local hazard maps with the vulnerability. Based on this risk analysis, a risk management strategy is developed, consisting of three complementing elements: (i) standardized risk sheets for the communities; (ii) activities with the local population and authorities to increase social and institutional preparedness; and (iii) a simple Early Warning System. By combining scientific, technical, and social aspects, this work is an example of a framework for an integrated risk management strategy in a data scarce, remote mountain catchment in a developing country.