青藏高原多年冻土区天然气水合物形成条件模拟研究

基于野外气体地球化学调查研究,以及前人有关冻土表层温度、冻土层内地温梯度、冻土层下地温梯度等的资料,对青藏高原多年冻土区天然气水合物的形成条件开展了模拟研究. 结果显示：研究区冻土条件能够满足天然气水合物形成的基本要求;气体组成、冻土特征（如冻土厚度或冻土表层温度、冻土层内地温梯度、冻土层下地温梯度等）是影响研究区天然气水合物稳定带厚度的最重要因素,其在不同点位上的差异性可能导致天然气水合物分布的不均匀性的主要原因;研究区最可能的天然气水合物为甲烷与重烃（乙烷和丙烷）的混合气体型天然气水合物;在天然气水合物分布的区域,其产出的上临界点深度在几十至一百多米间,下临界点深度在几百至近一千米间,厚度可达到几百米. 与Canadian Mallik三角洲多年冻土区相比,青藏高原多年冻土区除了冻土厚度小些外,其他条件,如冻土层内地温梯度、冻土层下地温梯度、气体组成等条件较为相近,具有一定的可比性,预示着良好的天然气水合物潜力.     

Desertification in the Arab Region: analysis of current status and trends

The total area of the Arab Region is about 14·2 million km², 90% of it lies within arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas. The area is characterized by harsh environment, fragile ecosystems and limited water resources and arable lands. Throughout its long history these lands were the main source of grain and animal production.By the end of this century and in spite of the national, regional and international efforts to combat desertification and mitigate the effect of drought and desiccation, desertification is still one of the major environmental problems in the Arab Region. The rapid increase in population by some 3% annually, considered among the highest worldwide, along with the changing of consumption patterns and life styles, resulting in increasing food demand, have hastened land degradation in this arid environment.Land degradation in the Arab Region due to misuse is widespread and is proceeding at accelerating rates. Failures of resource management policies are aggravated by overgrazing, overexploitation of water and land resources, overcultivation of marginal lands, deforestation, and the use of inappropriate technologies.This paper attempts to provide:

• A synthesis and analysis of the status of desertification in the Arab Region.

• Identification of the major causes and trends of land degradation.

• Highlighting the limitations and constraints on combating desertification in the Arab Region.

Flood susceptibility mapping using a geomorphometric approach in South Australian basins

Natural Hazards - Watershed characteristics and their hydrological responses can have severe effects on the occurrence and extent of floods. Therefore, this study focuses on the integration of...     

Susceptibility mapping of gully erosion using GIS-based statistical bivariate models: a case study from Ali Al-Gharbi District,Maysan Governorate,southern Iraq

This work aims to evaluate the predictive capability of three bivariate statistical models, namely information value, frequency ratio, and evidential belief functions, in gully erosion susceptibility mapping in northeastern Maysan Governorate (Ali Al-Gharbi District) in southern Iraq. The gully inventory map, consisting of 21 gullies of different sizes, was prepared based on the interpretation of remotely sensed data supported by field survey. The gully inventory data (polygon format) were randomly partitioned into two sets: 14 gullies for build and training the bivariate model, and the remaining 7 gullies for validating purposes. Twelve gully influential factors were selected based on data availability and the literature review. The selected factors were related to lithology, geomorphology, soil, land cover, and topography (primary and secondary) settings. Analysis of factor importance using information gain ratio proved that out of 12 gully influential factors, eight were of more importance in developing gullies (the average merit was greater than zero). The most important factors and the training gully inventory map were used to generate three gully erosion susceptibility maps based on the three bivariate models used. For validation, the area under the operating characteristics curves for both success and prediction rates was used. The results indicated that the highest prediction rate of 82.9% was achieved using the information value technique. All the bivariate models had prediction rates greater than 80%, and thus they were regarded as very good estimators. The final conclusion was that the bivariate models offer advanced techniques for mapping gully erosion susceptibility.     

Examining the rainfall–topography relationship using non-stationary modelling technique in semi-arid Aseer region,Saudi Arabia

The mountainous region of Aseer, corresponding to the Afromontane phytogeographic region, is an eco-sensitive zone and has complex relationship between topography and rainfall. The region is located inland of the red sea escarpment edge in the west. Therefore, rainfall can occur during any month of the year in the mountain of the high Aseer region when moist air forces up the escarpment from the red sea. Monitoring the rainfall data and its topographical elevation variable in Aseer region is an essential requirement for feasible and accurate rainfall-based data for different applications, such as hydrological and ecological resource management in rugged terrain and remote areas. The relationship of elevation and rainfall are spatially non-stationary, non-linear, scale dependent, and often modelled by conventional regression models. Therefore, a local modelling technique, geographically weighted regression (GWR), was applied to deal with non-stationary, non-linear, scale-dependent problems. The GWR using topoclimatic data (elevation and rainfall) to analyse the cumulative rainfall data for rainy months (March to June) of the 4 years estimated from CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations) product for Aseer region. The bandwidth (scale-size) of the Aseer region rainfall–elevation relationship has stabilised at round off 12 km. By selecting the suitable bandwidth, the spatial pattern of the rainfall–elevation relationship was significantly enhanced by using the GWR than the traditional ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model. GWR local modelling techniques estimated well in terms of accuracy, predictive power and decreased residual autocorrelation. Additionally, GWR assesses the significance of local statistic at each location and identified the location of spatial clusters with local regression coefficients significantly improved as compared with global OLS model, thereby highlighting local variations. Therefore, the GWR, local modelling approach managed to produce more accurate estimates by taking into account local characteristics.     

Extent of diagenetic transformations in severely altered biogenic silica deposits from Tunisia: new insights from mineralogy and geochemistry

Sedimentary biogenic silica from Redeyef in Gafsa basin (southern Tunisia) was analysed for its ²⁹Si and ²⁷Al magic angle spinning nuclear magnetic resonance (MAS NMR) spectra and complemented by X-ray diffraction and SEM observations. The ²⁹Si MAS NMR spectrum is characterized by the abundance of hydroxylated silicon, displayed in resonance intensities and reflects a clear tendency towards dissolution of diatomaceous amorphous silica and the occurrence of the hydrated silica, which is the main component that ensures the diagenetic transition via the mechanism of dissolution–precipitation to other more crystalline silica phases, after the lost of its hydroxyls groups (water) by heating (burial). ²⁷Al MAS NMR reveals two coordinations of Al; the octahedrally coordinated Al suggests the presence of clay relics trapped during crystal growth or a microcrystalline zeolite (clinoptilolite detected by SEM observations), while the tetrahedrally coordinated Al suggests the presence of minor quantities of minerals with tetrahedral Al, such as an Al-rich fluid and/or minerals such as feldspars.     

Well log analysis and hydrocarbon potential of the Sa'ar–Nayfa reservoir,Hiswah Oilfield,eastern Yemen

Sa'ar–Nayfa reservoir is mainly made up of carbonate sediments with bands of shale that contain a substantial amount of proven oil in the Hiswah Oilfield, Sayun–Masila Basin, eastern Yemen. Several vertical wells have been drilled and penetrated these sequences. This study is concerned on the petrophysical evaluation and well log analysis of the Lower Cretaceous of 11 wells at the Hiswah Oilfield, Hadramawt Governorate, eastern Yemen. Computer-assisted log analyses were used to evaluate the petrophysical parameters such as shale volume, total porosity, effective porosity, water saturation, hydrocarbon saturation, flushed zone saturation and reservoir and pay flags. Cross-plots of the petrophysical parameters versus depth were illustrated. The Lower Cretaceous Sa'ar–Nayfa reservoir reflects that the matrix components are mainly carbonates and shales. Moreover, the lithological-geologic model reflected that these shales are strongly affecting the porosity and, consequently, the fluid saturation in the Sa'ar–Nayfa reservoir. In this study, the thickness of the Sa'ar–Nayfa reservoir increases from central toward north-eastern and north-western parts within the Hiswah Oilfield. The porosities analyses of the investigation of the Sa'ar–Nayfa reservoir for the 11 studied wells concluded that the average total porosity ranges from 5.4 % to 16.8 % while the effective porosity ranges from 5.2 % to 14.8 %. Water saturation of the Sa'ar–Nayfa reservoir ranges from 6.9 % to 75.8 %. On the other hand, hydrocarbon saturation matches with water saturation in a reverse relationship. Sa'ar–Nayfa reservoir is interpreted as good quality reservoir rocks with high average effective porosity reaching to 20 % and high hydrocarbon saturation exceeding 93 %. The Sa'ar–Nayfa reservoir reveals promising reservoir characteristics especially the upper reservoir unit, which should be taken into consideration during future development of the oilfields area. The hydrocarbon saturation map of the Sa'ar–Nayfa reservoir shows a regular pattern of distribution with a general increasing to the northeast, northwest and east directions while decreasing southwest wards, recording the maximum value of 93.1 % at the Hiswah-21 well.     

Log-derived petrophysical characteristics and oil potentiality of the Upper Qishn Clastic Member,Masila Basin,Yemen

The Lower Cretaceous Qishn Formation at Masila Basin, Yemen, contains substantial amounts of proven crude oil. It is divided into a lower shaly silisiclastic member and an upper carbonate member. In the present work, detailed formation evaluation of the Upper Qishn Clastic Member was carried out using the digitized well logging data from 12 wells, via computer-assisted analysis, to accomplish its reservoir characteristics and oil potentiality. Accordingly, the true resistivity (R _t), porosity (total φ _t and effective φ _e), shale content (V _sh), permeability (K), water saturation (S _w), hydrocarbon saturation (S _h) (movable “S _hm” and residual “S _hr”) and lithologic composition in each well were estimated, analyzed, and illustrated versus depth on litho-saturation cross-plots. Likewise, the areal distribution of such parameters alongside the member in the investigated area and their relations to geological setting were defined from the constructed isoparametric contour maps. Based on the obtained results, the components of Upper Qishn Clastic Member of Masila Basin are mainly shaly sandstone and minor calcareous sandstone with considerable amount of shale. Regionally, the Member was deposited on an inner neritic to shallow-marine platform setting. It is interpreted as a good-quality reservoir rock which has been established from high total porosity (15–22 %), good effective porosity (8–13 %), and variable shale volume (24–31 %). A number of high hydrocarbon saturation zones (exceeding 55 %) are detected through intervals having S _w?<?60 % and S _hm?>?20 % which have been considered as economic oil producers. The storage and pay capacities of the reservoir intervals have been resolved. The obtained results were confirmed from the available data of core analyses and production tests. The Upper Qishn Clastic Member reveals promising reservoir characteristics which should be taken into consideration during future development of the oilfields in the area.     

Evaluation of the Risk of Marine Slope Instability: A Pseudo-3D Approach for Application to Large Areas

Abstract

This article presents a methodology developed to evaluate the instability of submarine slopes that extend over a large area. Special attention was paid to (1) the complex geometry (bathymetry) and the expanse of the slope, (2) the heterogeneity of the sediment, and (3) the distribution of the pore pressure. The safety factor was considered as a spatially varying quantity. The General Formulation (GLE, Fredlund and Krahn 1977), which fully satisfies equilibrium conditions, was used for evaluating the stability of the marine slope. The submarine slope failure, which occurred on 16 October 1979 during the construction of the new Nice airport, was studied in order to test the developed model. Geotechnical parameters were taken from experimental tests carried out by IFREMER on 19 cores extracted at different depths (from 27 m to 1300 m) (Cochonat, Bourillet, and Savoye, 1993; Mulder et al., 1994). Many scenarios were proposed in order to explain the cause of the Nice slope failure (Habib, 1994). In this article, two of those scenarios were tested. Simulation results are presented and discussed.     

Stochastic Forecasting Models of the Monthly Streamflow for the Blue Nile at Eldiem Station

Egypt is almost totally dependent on the River Nile for satisfying about 95% of its water requirements. The River Nile has three main tributaries: White Nile, Blue Nile, and River Atbara. The Blue Nile contributes about 60% of total annual flow reached the River Nile at Aswan High Dam. The goal of this research is to develop a reliable stochastic model for the monthly streamflow of the Blue Nile at Eldiem station, where the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is currently under construction with a storage capacity of about 74 billion m³. The developed model may help to carry out a reliable study on the filling scenarios of GERD reservoir and to minimize its expected negative side effects on Sudan and Egypt. The linear models: Deseasonalized AutoRegressive Moving Average (DARMA) model, Periodic AutoRegressive Moving Average (PARMA) model and Seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model; and the nonlinear Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model are selected for modeling monthly streamflow at Eldiem station. The performance of various models during calibration and validation were evaluated using the statistical indices: Mean Absolute Error, Root Mean Square Error and coefficient of determination (R2) which indicate the strength of fitting between observed and forecasted values. The results show that the performance of the nonlinear model (ANN) was much better than all investigated linear models (DARMA, PARMA and SARIMA) in forecasting the monthly flow discharges at Eldiem station.