利用粒子滤波进行动态精密单点定位观测异常影响控制

采用粒子滤波控制观测异常影响,提高动态精密单点定位精度。粒子滤波是一种非高斯噪声分布的动态滤波,通过重点概率密度进行随机采样以获取高精度状态参数;根据观测噪声概率密度、状态噪声概率密度以及重点概率密度等因素确定粒子权值,降低受污染粒子对定位结果的影响;采用Kalman滤波进行重点采样,减缓粒子退化;采用单差无电离层固定模糊度,减少状态参数维数,进而减少粒子的选取个数。实测数据结果表明,粒子滤波有效控制了观测异常影响,提高了动态精密单点定位的精度。     

蒙古国查干苏布尔加大型铜-钼矿床地质特征及成因

查干苏布尔加斑岩铜钼矿床位于西伯利亚板块南缘近东西向和北东向深大断裂所夹持的南蒙古构造岩浆带内,容矿围岩二长花岗斑岩与花岗闪长斑岩主量元素高SiO2(64.69×10-2~73.42×10-2),高Al2O3(15.33×10-2~18.35×10-2),贫MgO(0.13×10-2~0.56×10-2),微量元素Sr二长花岗斑岩略低(144×10-6~175×10-6).花岗闪长斑岩表现为高Sr(样品>300×10-6,476×10-6~720×10-6),二者均低Y(Y<18×10-6,2.21×10-6~10.20×10-6),低Yb(Yb<1.9×10-6,0.30×10-6~1.48×10-6),高Sr/Y(Sr/Y>20,21.8~63.52),稀土元素特征为亏损重稀土,无明显负铕异常,(87Sr/86Sr)i=0.70154~0.70397,(143Nd/144Nd)i=0.512290~0.512600,εNd(t)为+2.4~+8.5,二长花岗斑岩和花岗闪长斑岩均具有埃达克质岩特征,但二长花岗斑岩与花岗闪长斑岩主、微量和稀土元素又存在一定差别,它们可能是岩浆不同演化阶段的产物.通过年龄测定,获得辉钼矿Re-Os等时线年龄为(370.0±5.9)Ma,二长花岗斑岩锆石SHRIMP U-Pb加权平均年龄为(365.7±3.6)Ma,铜钼矿形成时代与二长花岗斑岩形成时代相近,均形成于晚泥盆世.铜钼矿床与二长花岗斑岩、花岗闪长斑岩紧密共生,矿区范围内二长花岗斑岩与花岗闪长斑岩多被蚀变并矿化,表明二长花岗斑岩、花岗闪长斑岩与铜钼矿化存在密切的时空关系,为铜钼成矿提供了主要成矿物质和流体来源.     

吉林省延边开山屯地区大蒜沟组生物化石的发现及其意义

在延边开山屯地区大蒜沟组地层中,发现的植物化石大部分在吉南—辽东地区太原组中所常见,具有明显的晚石炭世华夏植物群的色彩;动物化石也大多属石炭—二叠纪常见分子。将具有这种生物组合的大蒜沟组置于晚石炭世—早二叠世早期是合适的。     

RESEARCH ON EARTHQUAKE EMERGENCY MAPPING METHOD BASED ON TEMPLATE MATCH

After an earthquake, earthquake emergency response and rescue are important ways to mitigate earthquake-induced losses. Various earthquake emergency maps can provide effective references and guidance to those actions. Currently, related studies include the investigation on symbols of emergency maps, remote sensing emergency mapping and GIS-based mapping methods. However, the existing studies overlook the characteristics of rapidity, dynamicity and variety of presentation methods in making earthquake emergency maps. In this paper, a map template matching method is used to quickly make earthquake emergency maps considering their characteristics. We take investigations on the service objects(users)of the earthquake emergency maps to understand the needs of making earthquake emergency maps. The audience theory in mass media field and map information transmission theory are adopted to classify the users of the earthquake emergency maps into four categories: earthquake emergency commanders, technical staffs for decision-making, earthquake emergency rescuers, and the public. The components of different types of users are described and then their diverse demands in earthquake emergency maps are analyzed, such as the needs of on-field disaster information maps, earthquake information maps, physical geography and social economic maps. Following those needs, we introduce the representation methods of the earthquake emergency maps according to their formats(vector or raster)and contents, such as point symbolization method, kilometer grid method, line symbolization method and range method. Then, we study the rapid plotting method of earthquake emergency map based on map template matching method. The core steps of the method include: 1)before earthquake, the templates of different earthquake emergency maps are designed, prepared and connect the earthquake emergency features with their related spatial database. The map layout and map elements are stored in the templates. 2)After earthquake, the earthquake emergency features will be generated from seismic models(such as attenuation model of earthquake magnitude and seismic intensity)or the information obtained from field investigation. 3)Corresponding earthquake emergency map template is selected in accordance with the generated seismic features. And the features are used to update related features inside the selected template. 4)Minor adjustments are made such as to the map scale and some map annotations to finally generate the formal earthquake emergency map. Architecture of template system of the earthquake emergency maps is designed, including map user level, map template level, template layer level and map element level. Regrading to the architecture, the general map template of earthquake emergency is presented which includes four main regions: title region, main picture region, auxiliary region and annotation region. The main picture region is the essential, which lays geographic background maps and earthquake emergency features. Finally, an earthquake emergency mapping system is developed. Based on the system, a case study is presented, which demonstrates making a simulated seismic intensity influence map. From three aspects, the case presents the application of the template-matching method including: generating earthquake emergency features, substituting the features inside the template with the generated features, and revising map annotations. Therefore, the map template matching method is verified so that it can be used to quickly generate various earthquake emergency maps.     

2023年夏季海洋天气评述

2023年夏季（6—8月）大气环流特征为：北半球极涡呈偶极型分布,极涡强度较常年偏弱,欧亚地区及西北太平洋500 hPa槽脊位置与常年相近,副热带高压较常年平均偏西且略偏南,强度偏强,范围偏大。6 月,我国东部和北部近海海域出现3次海雾过程,7月和8月无大范围海雾过程。西北太平洋和南海生成台风10个,个数较常年同期偏少,平均极值强度显著偏强。6月生成1个远海转向台风;7月生成3个台风,其中2个台风登陆我国;8月台风活动频繁,生成台风6个,其中有2个在9月登陆我国。全球其他海域有20个编号的热带气旋生成。我国近海出现6次8级以上大风过程,其中热带气旋影响5次,江淮气旋入海影响1次。浪高超过2.0 m 的大浪过程发生12次。西北太平洋和南海海面温度较常年平均偏高,台风活动对海浪和海面温度分布影响显著。     

一种沟灌累积入渗量简化计算方法

为简化沟灌二维累积入渗量的数值计算,采用理论分析和数值模拟相结合的方法,研究分析了土壤初始含水率、入渗水深、沟底宽、边坡系数、土壤质地和容重等因素对沟灌边界效应和拟合系数γ的影响,并建立了系数γ与主要影响因素间的函数关系式,提出了沟灌累积入渗量简化计算方法.结果表明,土壤初始含水率、沟底宽和边坡系数对沟灌边界效应的影响较小,而入渗水深、土壤质地和容重对沟灌边界效应的影响显著;拟合系数γ主要与入渗水深的变化有关,随入渗水深的增大呈现减小趋势,但对初始含水率、沟底宽、边坡系数、土壤质地和容重等因素变化的敏感性较低,可忽略其影响;建立了估算拟合系数γ的计算式,结合已有文献资料对其可靠性进行了验证,结果表明黏壤土和砂壤土不同入渗时间内,其沟灌累积入渗量计算值与实测值和HYDRUS软件模拟值具有高的一致性,说明文中所建公式估算拟合系数γ值可靠.研究结果可为简化沟灌累积入渗量的数值计算提供理论依据和技术支撑.     

利用区域气候模式预估未来登陆中国热带气旋活动

鉴于热带气旋(TC)对我国沿海地区的影响,研究全球变暖背景下未来登陆我国TC活动的变化,对于我国沿海地区的防灾减灾具有重要意义。基于CMIP5中全球气候模式HadGEM2-ES数据,文中利用区域气候模式RegCM4开展了历史时期和3种情景(RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5)下未来东亚区域气候的动力降尺度模拟,检验了模式对历史登陆我国TC活动及其相关大尺度环境场的模拟能力,并预估了3种情景下2030—2039年、2050—2059年和2089—2098年,登陆我国TC的路径、强度和频率的变化特征。结果表明:模式能合理地再现东亚区域历史时期(1986—2005年)大气环流场的空间结构以及登陆我国TC的特征;在3种情景下未来登陆我国TC的平均强度和数量均有不同程度的增加,尤其是台风及以上级别TC的总数明显增加,其中RCP8.5情景最突出,到21世纪末期(2089—2098年)登陆我国TC的平均强度、台风及以上级别TC总数的年平均值较历史时期将分别增加7.56%和1.05个;不同情景下未来登陆我国TC的路径均有不同程度的北移趋势,且全球升温的幅度越大,北移趋势越明显,这可能与未来中国近海显著变暖和垂直风切变减弱有关。未来我国沿海地区尤其是中高纬度很可能将面临日益严峻的TC灾害风险,亟需尽快开展防灾减灾及对策研究。     

晚中新世柴达木盆地低偏心率时期倾角驱动的干湿变化

当前间冰期正处在地球轨道低偏心率时期,在全球变暖的大趋势下北半球冰盖正逐渐消融。因此,解析北半球无冰背景下低偏心率时期亚洲内陆干湿变化规律和驱动机制,对预测该地区未来环境变化具有重要意义。然而,以前的研究关注亚洲内陆低偏心率时期环境变化的高分辨率记录较少,限制了对该区干湿循环和驱动机制的理解。柴达木盆地位于东亚季风降水边缘,对干湿变化非常敏感。选取柴达木盆地东北部大红沟剖面河湖相沉积地层,利用频率磁化率指标重建晚中新世时期(9~12 Ma)高分辨率干湿变化历史,揭示了典型的低偏心率时期干湿变化主导周期和轨道斜率驱动机制。结果表明,在低偏心率时期(9.2~9.4、 9.6~9.8和11.2~11.4 Ma),该区域干湿变化以4万年周期为主,对应倾角变化,说明在岁差振幅较小时,倾角变化可能上升为轨道调控干旱区干湿变化的主导因素。这一发现对理解未来气候变化具有一定的借鉴意义。     

水电站拱肩槽建基面岩体松弛带研究

拱肩槽建基面岩体在爆破开挖后,由于岩体应力的急剧变化,岩体发生松弛、卸荷,在浅表部形成松弛带,确定松弛带厚度对工程具有重要意义。本文通过利用纵波波速等方法确定松弛带厚度,对其他类似工程也有一定的借鉴作用。     

基于MODIS的春、夏季中国近海气溶胶对于云参数的影响差异研究

通过分析中国近海MODIS数据中气溶胶参数与云参数的相互关系,讨论了该区域气溶胶的间接效应及其对于云的可能影响.结果表明,在中国近海,气溶胶具有明显的间接效应,而且由于气溶胶种类和水汽的季节变化,使得气溶胶的间接作用具有很强的时间变化特征.在夏季,由于人为气溶胶占主导,它作为有效的云凝结核,使得气溶胶光学厚度（AOT）分别与云凝结核数（CCN）有正相关、与云滴有效半径（CER）有负相关性、与云光学厚度（COT）也存在着正相关,气溶胶的间接效应明显;在春季,由于沙尘气溶胶盛行,同时沙尘并不是很好的云凝结核,使得气溶胶光学厚度（AOT）分别与云凝结核数（CCN）的正相关减弱、与云滴有效半径（CER）则由夏季的负相关变为正相关、与云光学厚度（COT）存在弱的负相关,气溶胶的间接效应不明显.