High-order Stochastic Simulation of Complex Spatially Distributed Natural Phenomena

Spatially distributed and varying natural phenomena encountered in geoscience and engineering problem solving are typically incompatible with Gaussian models, exhibiting nonlinear spatial patterns and complex, multiple-point connectivity of extreme values. Stochastic simulation of such phenomena is historically founded on second-order spatial statistical approaches, which are limited in their capacity to model complex spatial uncertainty. The newer multiple-point (MP) simulation framework addresses past limits by establishing the concept of a training image, and, arguably, has its own drawbacks. An alternative to current MP approaches is founded upon new high-order measures of spatial complexity, termed “high-order spatial cumulants.” These are combinations of moments of statistical parameters that characterize non-Gaussian random fields and can describe complex spatial information. Stochastic simulation of complex spatial processes is developed based on high-order spatial cumulants in the high-dimensional space of Legendre polynomials. Starting with discrete Legendre polynomials, a set of discrete orthogonal cumulants is introduced as a tool to characterize spatial shapes. Weighted orthonormal Legendre polynomials define the so-called Legendre cumulants that are high-order conditional spatial cumulants inferred from training images and are combined with available sparse data sets. Advantages of the high-order sequential simulation approach developed herein include the absence of any distribution-related assumptions and pre- or post-processing steps. The method is shown to generate realizations of complex spatial patterns, reproduce bimodal data distributions, data variograms, and high-order spatial cumulants of the data. In addition, it is shown that the available hard data dominate the simulation process and have a definitive effect on the simulated realizations, whereas the training images are only used to fill in high-order relations that cannot be inferred from data. Compared to the MP framework, the proposed approach is data-driven and consistently reconstructs the lower-order spatial complexity in the data used, in addition to high order.     

Malaysian fisheries policy : Search for new grounds

Past fisheries development policies in Malaysia are assessed and new grounds for managing the Malaysian fisheries are explored. Some incompatibility in the goals for fishery development are discerned, especially those of increasing domestic landings through mechanization and resource conservation. Future management efforts should be based on a fuller understanding of the fishery stock and regional management of fish stocks. Aquaculture is often seen as a plausible alternative in order to augment supplies from the capture fisheries. A comprehensive multidisciplinary approach is needed to transform and commercialize traditional, experience-dependent culture systems into technology-packaged systems based on scientific methods. There is also substantial potential for the development of recreational fisheries.     

The LATEA metacraton (Central Hoggar, Tuareg shield, Algeria): behaviour of an old passive margin during the Pan-African orogeny

Historically, the Tuareg shield is divided into three parts bordered by mega-shear zones with the centre, the Central Polycyclic Hoggar, characterized by Archaean and Palaeoproterozoic lithologies. Nearly 10 years ago, the Tuareg shield was shown to be composed of 23 displaced terranes [Geology 22 (1994) 641] whose relationships were deciphered in Aïr to the SE [Precambr. Res. 67 (1994) 59]. The Polycyclic Central Hoggar terranes were characterized by the presence of well preserved Archaean/Palaeoproterozoic and Neoproterozoic lithologies.We show here that the terranes from Central Hoggar (Laouni, Azrou-n-Fad, Tefedest, Egéré-Aleksod) belonged to a single old passive margin, to which we gave the acronym name LATEA, which behaved as a craton during the Mesoproterozoic and the Early-Middle Neoproterozoic but was partly destabilized and dissected during the Late Neoproterozoic as a consequence of its involvement as a passive margin in the Pan-African orogen.An early Pan-African phase consisted of thrust sheets including garnet-bearing lithologies (eclogite, amphibolite, gneiss) that can be mapped and correlated in three LATEA terranes. In the Tin Begane area, P–T–t paths have been established from>15 kbar––790 °C (eclogite) to 4 kbar––500 °C (greenschist retrogression) through 12 kbar––830 °C (garnet amphibolite) and 8 kbar––700 °C (garnet gneiss), corresponding to the retrograde path of a Franciscan-type loop. Sm–Nd geochronology on minerals and laser ablation ICP-MS on garnet show the mobility of REE, particularly LREE, during the retrograde greenschist facies that affects, although slightly, some of these rocks. The amphibolite-facies metamorphism has been dated at 685 ± 19 Ma and the greenschist facies at 522 ± 27 Ma. During the thrust phase, the Archaean–Palaeoproterozoic basement was only locally affected by the Pan-African tectonics. LATEA behaved as a craton. Other juvenile terranes were also thrust early onto LATEA: the Iskel island arc at ≈850 Ma to the west of LATEA, the Serouenout terrane in the 700–620 Ma age range to the east. No subduction-related magmas have intruded LATEA during this epoch, which behaved as a passive margin.During the main Pan-African phase (625–580 Ma), LATEA was dissected by mega-shear zones that induced several hundreds km of relative displacement and allowed the emplacement of high-K calc-alkaline batholiths. Smaller movements continued till 525 Ma, accompanied by the emplacement of subcircular plutons with alkaline affinity. Here is dated the Ounane granodiorite (624 ± 15 Ma; ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr_i=0.70839 ± 0.00016; 6WR, MSWD=0.87) and the Tisselliline granite (552 ± 15 Ma; ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr_i=0.7074 ± 0.0001; 5WR, MSWD=1.4). Nd isotopes indicate a preponderant Palaeoproterozoic crustal source for these two plutons: _Nd=−14 to −21 at 624 Ma and T_DM=1650–2320 Ma for Ounane and _Nd=−13 to −15 at 555 Ma and T_DM=1550–1720 Ma for Tisselliline. Our model links these intrusions to a linear lithospheric delamination along mega-shear zones, allowing the hot asthenosphere to rise, melt by adiabatic pressure release and inducing the melting of the Palaeoproterozoic and Archaean lower crust.The LATEA cratonic microcontinent remained however sufficiently rigid to preserve Archaean and Palaeoproterozoic lithologies as well as Middle Neoproterozoic oceanic thrust sheets. This corresponds to the notion of metacraton [J. African Earth Sci. 34 (2002) 119], i.e. a craton that has been remobilized during an orogenic event but is still recognizable dominantly through its rheological, geochronological, isotopic and sometimes petrological characteristics.     

Long-term seismicity in regions of present day low seismic activity: the example of western Europe

In western Europe, the knowledge of long-term seismicity is based on reliable historical seismicity and covers a time period of less than 700 years. Despite the fact that the seismic activity is considered as low in the region extending from the Lower Rhine Embayment to England, historical information collected recently suggests the occurrence of three earthquakes with magnitude around 6.0 or greater. These events are a source of information for the engineer or the scientist involved in mitigation against large earthquakes. We provide information relevant to this aspect for the Belgian earthquake of September 18, 1692. The severity of the damage described in original sources indicates that its epicentral intensity could be IX (EMS-98 scale) and that the area with intensity VII and greater than VII has at least a mean radius of 45 km. Following relationships between average macroseismic radii and magnitude for earthquakes in stable continental regions, its magnitude M_s is estimated as between 6.0 and 6.5. To extend in time our knowledge of the seismic activity, we conducted paleoseismic investigations in the Roer Graben to address the question of the possible occurrence of large earthquakes with coseismic surface ruptures. Our study along the Feldbiss fault (the western border of the graben) demonstrates its recent activity and provides numerous lines of evidence of Holocene and Late Pleistocene large earthquakes. It suggests that along the 10 km long Bree fault scarp, the return period for earthquakes with magnitude from 6.2 to 6.7 ranges from 10,000 to 20,000 years during the last 50,000 years. Considering as possible the occurrence of similar earthquakes along all the Quaternary faults in the Lower Rhine Embayment, a large earthquake could occur there each 500–1000 years. These results are important in two ways. (i) The evidence that large earthquakes occur in western Europe in the very recent past which is not only attested by historical sources, but also suggested by paleoseismic investigations in the Roer Graben. (ii) The existence of a scientific basis to better evaluate the long-term seismicity in this part of Europe (maximal magnitude and return period) in the framework of seismic hazard assessment.     

Nonextensive dust acoustic waves in a charge varying dusty plasma

Our recent analysis on nonlinear nonextensive dust-acoustic waves (DA) [Amour and Tribeche in Phys. Plasmas 17:063702, 2010] is extended to include self-consistent nonadiabatic grain charge fluctuation. The appropriate nonextensive electron charging current is rederived based on the orbit-limited motion theory. Our results reveal that the amplitude, strength and nature of the nonlinear DA waves (solitons and shocks) are extremely sensitive to the degree of ion nonextensivity. Stronger is the electron correlation, more important is the charge variation induced nonlinear wave damping. The anomalous dissipation effects may prevail over that dispersion as the electrons evolve far away from their Maxwellian equilibrium. Our investigation may be of wide relevance to astronomers and space scientists working on interstellar dusty plasmas where nonthermal distributions are turning out to be a very common and characteristic feature.     

Numerical modeling of the flow and transport of radionuclides in heterogeneous porous media

This paper is concerned with numerical methods for the modeling of flow and transport of contaminant in porous media. The numerical methods feature the mixed finite element method over triangles as a solver to the Darcy flow equation and a conservative finite volume scheme for the concentration equation. The convective term is approximated with a Godunov scheme over the dual finite volume mesh, whereas the diffusion–dispersion term is discretized by piecewise linear conforming triangular finite elements. It is shown that the scheme satisfies a discrete maximum principle. Numerical examples demonstrate the effectiveness of the methodology for a coupled system that includes an elliptic equation and a diffusion–convection–reaction equation arising when modeling flow and transport in heterogeneous porous media. The proposed scheme is robust, conservative, efficient, and stable, as confirmed by numerical simulations.      

TM/ETM+/LDCM Images for Studying Land Surface Temperature (LST) Interplay with Impervious Surfaces Changes over Time Within the Douala Metropolis,Cameroon

Douala, the most important metropolis of Cameroon, is a sub-Saharan wet coastal environment of which the anarchic urbanization is a socio-economic and environmental problem, significantly influencing the local climate. In this study, three Landsat images from 1986 (TM), 2007 (ETM+) and 2016 (LDCM), were utilized to investigate the effect of this urbanization on the increasing land surface temperature (LST) between these dates. Thus, the urban indices (UI), determined from the Landsat Visible and NIR channels were used to identify impervious areas (Urban Fabric and bare soil) of urban area. It has been shown from the UI images that, impervious areas have been increased from 1986 to 2016. The LST images derived have a continual expansion of zones and points of heat throughout these dates. The correlation analysis of LST and UI, at the pixel-scale, indicated the positive relationship between these parameters, which could show a real impact of urbanization on the increasing temperature in the area. These correlations are fairly low in 1986 (maximum R-square value is about 0.35) and in 2007 (maximum R-square value is about 0.44. In 2016, a high positive correlation (maximum R-square value is about 0.77) confirm that, the impervious areas strengthen the temperature and the Urban Heat Island effect in Douala urban zone. Overall, the earth observation images and the geographic information system techniques were effective approaches for aiming at environment monitoring and analyzing urban growth patterns and evaluating their impacts on urban climates.     

Rapid analysis of risk assessment using developed simulation of chemical industrial accidents software package

The environmental consequences are defined as consequences of accidental release of hazardous substances to the natural environment. This release can lead to many hazards depending on the material stored. The consequences of these hazards to the environment are widespread and have significant importance to human communities living in the surroundings. The mathematical models are extremely useful tools to predict the impacts of chemical process accidents. The objective of this paper is to develop a software package for accident simulation and damage potential estimation. The software is coded in visual basic and is compatible with windows working environments. The software is called Simulation of chemical industrial accident. This application is a comprehensive software package which can be integrated with geographical information system to predict and display the consequence of chemical hazards. The software is a user-friendly and effective tool for evaluating the consequences of major chemical accidents, process decision making for land-use planning, namely locating suitable hazardous installations, hazardous waste disposal areas and emergency response plan.     

Wave climate simulation for southern region of the South China Sea

This study investigates long-term variability and wave characteristic trends in the southern region of the South China Sea (SCS). We implemented the state-of-the art WAVEWATCH III spectral wave model to simulate a 31-year wave hindcast. The simulation results were used to assess the inter-annual variability and long-term changes in the SCS wave climate for the period 1979 to 2009. The model was forced with Climate Forecast System Reanalysis winds and validated against altimeter data and limited available measurements from an Acoustic Wave and Current recorder located offshore of Terengganu, Malaysia. The mean annual significant wave height and peak wave period indicate the occurrence of higher wave heights and wave periods in the central SCS and lower in the Sunda shelf region. Consistent with wind patterns, the wave direction also shows southeasterly (northwesterly) waves during the summer (winter) monsoon. This detailed hindcast demonstrates strong inter-annual variability of wave heights, especially during the winter months in the SCS. Significant wave height correlated negatively with Niño3.4 index during winter, spring and autumn seasons but became positive in the summer monsoon. Such correlations correspond well with surface wind anomalies over the SCS during El Nino events. During El Niño Modoki, the summer time positive correlation extends northeastwards to cover the entire domain. Although significant positive trends were found at 95 % confidence levels during May, July and September, there is significant negative trend in December covering the Sunda shelf region. However, the trend appears to be largely influenced by large El Niño signals.