Earthquake risk to industry in Istanbul and its management

Istanbul is home to 40% of the industrial facilities in Turkey. Thirty percent of the population working in industry lives in the city. Past earthquakes have evidenced that the structural reliability of residential and industrial buildings in the country is questionable. In the Marmara region the earthquake hazard is very high with a 2% annual probability of occurrence of a magnitude 7+ earthquake on the main Marmara fault. These facts make the management of industrial risks imperative for the reduction of socioeconomic losses. In this paper we present a first-order assessment of earthquake damage to the industry in Istanbul and raise issues for better characterization and quantification of industrial losses and management of urban industrial risks. This paper borrows from the project report entitled ‘Earthquake Risk Assessment for Industrial Facilities in Istanbul’. The full report can be found at http://www.koeri.boun.edu.tr/depremmuh.html under the link ‘Research and Applied Projects’.     

Prediction of pore-water pressure response to rainfall using support vector regression

Nonlinear complex behavior of pore-water pressure responses to rainfall was modelled using support vector regression (SVR). Pore-water pressure can rise to disturbing levels that may result in slope failure during or after rainfall. Traditionally, monitoring slope pore-water pressure responses to rainfall is tedious and expensive, in that the slope must be instrumented with necessary monitors. Data on rainfall and corresponding responses of pore-water pressure were collected from such a monitoring program at a slope site in Malaysia and used to develop SVR models to predict pore-water pressure fluctuations. Three models, based on their different input configurations, were developed. SVR optimum meta-parameters were obtained using k-fold cross validation and a grid search. Model type 3 was adjudged the best among the models and was used to predict three other points on the slope. For each point, lag intervals of 30 min, 1 h and 2 h were used to make the predictions. The SVR model predictions were compared with predictions made by an artificial neural network model; overall, the SVR model showed slightly better results. Uncertainty quantification analysis was also performed for further model assessment. The uncertainty components were found to be low and tolerable, with d-factor of 0.14 and 74 % of observed data falling within the 95 % confidence bound. The study demonstrated that the SVR model is effective in providing an accurate and quick means of obtaining pore-water pressure response, which may be vital in systems where response information is urgently needed.     

Modeling of electrical resistivity and maximum dry density in soil compaction measurement

This paper presents the mathematical relationship of electrical resistivity and dry density in compacted soil through electrical signal for geotechnical investigations. Monitoring of the compacted soil through electrical conductivity plays an important role in the construction of highway embankments, earth dams and many other engineering structures. Conventionally, soil compaction is measured through the estimation of maximum dry density at optimum moisture contents in laboratory tests. This conventional testing method is very tedious and costly especially when a lot of samples are involved. In this work, a mathematical model is developed to estimate the soil compaction on-site through electrical resistivity corresponding to the percentage of moisture contents in the compacted soil. The practical usage of the derived mathematical model is demonstrated using several soil samples for various types of soil.     

Quaternary bimodal volcanism in the Niğde Volcanic Complex (Cappadocia,central Anatolia,Turkey): age,petrogenesis and geodynamic implications

The late Neogene to Quaternary Cappadocian Volcanic Province (CVP) in central Anatolia is one of the most impressive volcanic fields of Turkey because of its extent and spectacular erosionally sculptured landscape. The late Neogene evolution of the CVP started with the eruption of extensive andesitic-dacitic lavas and ignimbrites with minor basaltic lavas. This stage was followed by Quaternary bimodal volcanism. Here, we present geochemical, isotopic (Sr–Nd–Pb and δ¹⁸O isotopes) and geochronological (U–Pb zircon and Ar–Ar amphibole and whole-rock ages) data for bimodal volcanic rocks of the Ni?de Volcanic Complex (NVC) in the western part of the CVP to determine mantle melting dynamics and magmatic processes within the overlying continental crust during the Quaternary. Geochronological data suggest that the bimodal volcanic activity in the study area occurred between ca. 1.1 and ca. 0.2 Ma (Pleistocene) and comprises (1) mafic lavas consisting of basalts, trachybasalts, basaltic andesites and scoria lapilli fallout deposits with mainly basaltic composition, (2) felsic lavas consisting of mostly rhyolites and pumice lapilli fall-out and surge deposits with dacitic to rhyolitic composition. The most mafic sample is basalt from a monogenetic cone, which is characterized by ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr = 0.7038, ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd = 0.5128, ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 18.80, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 15.60 and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 38.68, suggesting a moderately depleted signature of the mantle source. Felsic volcanic rocks define a narrow range of ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd isotope ratios (0.5126–0.5128) and are homogeneous in Pb isotope composition (²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 18.84–18.87, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 15.64–15.67 and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 38.93–38.99). ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr isotopic compositions of mafic (0.7038–0.7053) and felsic (0.7040–0.7052) samples are similar, reflecting a common mantle source. The felsic rocks have relatively low zircon δ¹⁸O values (5.6 ± 0.6 ‰) overlapping mantle values (5.3 ± 0.3 %), consistent with an origin by fractional crystallization from a mafic melt with very minor continental crustal contamination. The geochronological and geochemical data suggest that mafic and felsic volcanic rocks of the NVC are genetically closely related to each other. Mafic rocks show a positive trend between ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and Th, suggesting simultaneous assimilation and fractional crystallization, whereas the felsic rocks are characterized by a flat or slightly negative variation. High ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr gneisses are a potential crustal contaminant of the mafic magmas, but the comparatively low and invariant ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr in the felsic volcanics suggests that these evolved dominantly by fractional crystallization. Mantle-derived basaltic melts, which experienced low degree of crustal assimilation, are proposed to be the parent melt of the felsic volcanics. Geochronological and geochemical results combined with regional geological and geophysical data suggest that bimodal volcanism of the NVC and the CVP, in general, developed in a post-collisional extensional tectonic regime that is caused by ascending asthenosphere, which played a key role during magma genesis.     

Monitoring cryosphere and associated flood hazards in high mountain ranges of Pakistan using remote sensing technique

Knowledge of Himalayan cryosphere seems to be an outstanding requirement for assessment of glacier storage, water balance analysis, planning of water resources and flood hazard monitoring. A stepwise approach through mapping glaciers and glacial lakes using satellite remote sensing data and investigating potential glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) hazards was adopted for the three Hindukush, Karakoram and Himalayan (HKH) ranges of Pakistan. The findings of the study revealed 5,218 glaciers in the cryosphere of HKH ranges. The cumulative glacial cover of over 15,000 km² contains ice reserves of about 2,738 km³. About 46 % of the Karakoram glaciers are contributing 77 % to the total glacial cover and 87 % to the cumulative ice reserves of the country. The 33 % Himalayan glaciers and 21 % Hindukush glaciers contribute only 3 and 10 % ice reserves, respectively. Among 2,420 glacial lakes identified in the three HKH ranges, 52 were classified as critical lakes that can pose GLOF hazard for the downstream communities. Most of the potential hazardous lakes lie in the Karakoram and Himalayan ranges, the monitoring of which is crucial to reduce high risk of future floods hazard in this fragile mountain ecosystem of the Himalayan region.     

Mixing processes in hydrothermal spring systems and implications for interpreting geochemical data: a case study in the Cappadocia region of Turkey

Mixing is a dominant hydrogeological process in the hydrothermal spring system in the Cappadocia region of Turkey. All springs emerge along faults, which have the potential to transmit waters rapidly from great depths. However, mixing with shallow meteoric waters within the flow system results in uncertainty in the interpretation of geochemical results. The chemical compositions of cold and warm springs and geothermal waters are varied, but overall there is a trend from Ca–HCO₃ dominated to Na–Cl dominated. There is little difference in the seasonal ionic compositions of the hot springs, suggesting the waters are sourced from a well-mixed reservoir. Based on δ¹⁸O and δ²H concentrations, all waters are of meteoric origin with evidence of temperature equilibration with carbonate rocks and evaporation. Seasonal isotopic variability indicates that only a small proportion of late spring and summer precipitation forms recharge and that fresh meteoric waters move rapidly into the flow system and mix with thermal waters at depth. ³H and percent modern carbon (pmC) values reflect progressively longer groundwater pathways from cold to geothermal waters; however, mixing processes and the very high dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) of the water samples preclude the use of either isotope to gain any insight on actual groundwater ages.