Fading Hawking radiation

In this study, we explore a particular type Hawking radiation which ends with zero temperature and entropy. The appropriate black holes for this purpose are the linear dilaton black holes. In addition to the black hole choice, a recent formalism in which the Parikh-Wilczek’s tunneling formalism amalgamated with quantum corrections to all orders in ? is considered. The adjustment of the coefficients of the quantum corrections plays a crucial role on this particular Hawking radiation. The obtained tunneling rate indicates that the radiation is not pure thermal anymore, and hence correlations of outgoing quanta are capable of carrying away information encoded within them. Finally, we show in detail that when the linear dilaton black hole completely evaporates through such a particular radiation, entropy of the radiation becomes identical with the entropy of the black hole, which corresponds to “no information loss”.     

Application of the Markov chain approximation to the sunspot observations

The positions of the 13588 sunspot groups observed during the cycle of 1950–1960 at the Istanbul University Observatory have been corrected for the effect of differential rotation. The evolution probability of a sunspot group to the other one in the same region have been determined. By using the Markov chain approximation, the types of these groups and their transition probabilities during the following activity cycle (1950–1960), and the concentration of active regions during 1950–1960 have been estimated. The transition probabilities from the observations of activity cycle 1960–1970 have been compared with the predicted transition probabilities and a good correlation has been noted.     

Estimates of the number of sunspot groups: Application to the activity cycle 1960–1970

It was verified that the total number of sunspot groups at certain region on the solar surface for a certain activity cycle can be estimated quite accurately by using the Markov chain approximation method on the total number of spot groups observed on the same region at an earlier activity cycle. Application has been carried out on the observed sunspots on three northern longitude intervals (40–50, 80–90, and 130–140) during the activity cycle 1950–1960 and 1960–1970. The total number of spot groups in these regions for the activity cycle 1960–1970 has been estimated from the observational data of the cycle 1950–1960. A good correlation between the observed and estimated number of spot groups for the activity cycle 1960–1970 has been noted.     

Geochemie und Petrogenese der Intrusivgesteine von Ağören in Ostanatolien/Türkei

The bulk mass of the intrusive rocks found in the surroundings of Ağören/East Anatolia is composed mainly of K-feldspar, quartz and plagioclase. Moreover the minerals biotite, muscovite and rarely amphiboles are present as minor components and apatite, zircon, chlorite, sericite, tourmaline as well as titanite are found as accessory components. The intrusives can be defined as granites and qaurtzmonzonites by plotting within the QAP diagram. They show a clearly prealuminous character (A/CNK ratio >1.1) and typical geochemical attributes of S-type granites.The distribution pattern of trace – and rare earth elements in various diagrams indicate that the initial magma was generated by collision processes and accompanyed crust thickening and consequently a partial melting of the underlying Akdağ metamorphics and Hinis metaophiolites.     

Risk tolerance measure for decision-making in fuzzy analysis: a health risk assessment perspective

In risk assessment studies it is important to determine how uncertain and imprecise knowledge should be included into the simulation and assessment models. Thus, proper evaluation of uncertainties has become a major concern in environmental and health risk assessment studies. Previously, researchers have used probability theory, more commonly Monte Carlo analysis, to incorporate uncertainty analysis in health risk assessment studies. However, in conducting probabilistic health risk assessment, risk analyst often suffers from lack of data or the presence of imperfect or incomplete knowledge about the process modeled and also the process parameters. Fuzzy set theory is a tool that has been used in propagating imperfect and incomplete information in health risk assessment studies. Such analysis result in fuzzy risks which are associated with membership functions. Since possibilistic health risk assessment studies are relatively new, standard procedures for decision-making about the acceptability of the resulting fuzzy risk with respect to a crisp standard set by the regulatory agency are not fully established. In this paper, we are providing a review of several available approaches which may be used in decision-making. These approaches involve defuzzification techniques, the possibility and the necessity measures. In this study, we also propose a new measure, the risk tolerance measure, which can be used in decision making. The risk tolerance measure provides an effective metric for evaluating the acceptability of a fuzzy risk with respect to a crisp compliance criterion. Fuzzy risks with different membership functions are evaluated with respect to a crisp compliance criterion by using the possibility, the necessity, and the risk tolerance measures and the results are discussed comparatively.     

Rethinking the Kyoto Emissions Targets

The overall targets for greenhouse gas emissions of the Kyoto Protocol are not based on a specific objective for the future world climate. Moreover, the allocations of emissions restrictions among countries do not have a principled logic and impose arbitrary differences in costs. Calculations arepresented of the costs of alternative guidelines for emissions restrictions, each of which has a plausible ethical basis: equal per capita reductions, equal country shares in reductions, equalized welfare costs, and emulation of the United Nations budget allocations. All of these would result in far lower total costs of reaching the Kyoto targets. The alternatives would also eliminate the wholly capricious accommodations given to the Former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. The lower cost alternativeswould permit the Annex B countries to make unequivocal commitments for cost reimbursement to the non-Annex B countries to induce them to participate in emissions reductions. Everyone would gain from that.     

Development of an earthquake loss model for Turkish catastrophe insurance

Following the devastating Kocaeli and Düzce earthquakes of August andNovember 1999, the Turkish Government was faced with an enormousfinancial burden as a result of its statutory obligation to cover the full costsof rebuilding. In order to offset this liability in the future – which has hadan adverse effect on the Government's economic programme – acompulsory earthquake insurance scheme has been introduced for allhouseholders in Turkey. A key element for successful implementation ofthis novel and ambitious programme is the transfer of the earthquake riskabsorbed by the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (TCIP) to theinternational reinsurance market. An earthquake loss model, described inthis paper, has been developed for the TCIP to serve as a basis for thedecision-making process with respect to the pricing of its insurance policy,risk control, the purchase of reinsurance, and the transfer of seismic risk.Sample results of the loss calculations are presented.     

Sea-level changes and related depositional environments on the southern Marmara shelf

Petrographic data obtained from 182 surface sediment samples together with the available bathymetric data are used to investigate the effects of the last major sea-level changes on shelf evolution in the southern Sea of Marmara. Grain-size analysis reveals the presence of at least three belts or zones which are rich in coarse-grained (sand and gravel) sediments. These coarse-grained belts which are up to 45 km long, 15 km wide, show up to 20 m of relief and are presently found at 40–80 m (average 60 m) water depths. Based on microscopic examination and residual analysis, the sediments from these belts are interpreted as indicators of high-energy shallow waters where detrital siliciclastics, with some benthic contribution, accumulated. The presence of a 62–65 m deep sill in the Çanakkale Strait and the consideration of sea-level curves would suggest that the Marmara shelves must have been subaerially exposed down to −65 m water depths for about 10,000 yrs (22,000–12,000 yrs B.P.), sufficient time to modify former shelf topographies and form such bottom relief. While difficult to date, we believe that coarse-grained belts found on the southern Marmara shelf must be relict (i.e., former shorelines, beaches) and their formation is largely related to low stands of sea-level during the Late Pleistocene regression and early Holocene transgression. However, the available high-resolution seismic profiling data suggest that the neotectonism in this seismically active Sea of Marmara plays an important role to explain the raise of these older shorelines to their present levels on the sea-floor.     

Identifying drivers for fishing pressure. A multidisciplinary study of trawl and sea snail fisheries in Samsun,Black Sea coast of Turkey

This study aims to investigate and model driving forces that lead to increased fishing pressure and an altered state of the environment in the coastal areas near Samsun on the Turkish Black Sea coast. We have applied a modified DPSIR model to structure our investigation and analysis and have investigated the drivers that generate fishing pressure in the Samsun fisheries. The overall health of the ecosystem is declining, and there is a consistent trend of deterioration in the condition of the three major species targeted by the trawl fisheries. Although introduced invasive species have brought significant changes to the Black Sea, it is clear that the state of the environment is significantly and negatively affected by the pressure exerted by fisheries. Fishing pressure has to a certain extent been redirected to pelagic trawling as bottom trawling has become less profitable and a rise in catch capacity has levelled off. This reduction is, however, offset by an increase in illegal trawling and dredging by a very rapidly growing sector of multi-purpose small boats, resulting in a considerable increase in the overall accumulated engine power of fishing boats in Samsun during 2000–2005. Fisheries in Samsun, in particular sea snail fisheries, have constituted a frontier of sorts open to the poorer populations of Samsun during the last 20 years, and, thereby, constitute one of the major drivers for fishing pressure. We identify eight drivers of importance for the period 2000–2005. Although the authorities can impact all or most of those drivers, most of them are beyond the scope of conventional ‘fisheries management’.