Prevailing trends of climatic extremes across Indus-Delta of Sindh-Pakistan

This study examines the variability and change in the patterns of climatic extremes experienced in Indus-Delta of Sindh province of Pakistan, comprising regions of Karachi, Badin, Mohenjodaro, and Rohri. The homogenized daily minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation data for a 36-year period were used to calculate 13 and 11 indices of temperature and precipitation extremes with the help of RClimDex, a program written in the statistical software package R. A non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimates were used to determine the statistical significance and magnitude of the calculated trend. Temperatures of summer days and tropical nights increased in the region with overall significant warming trends for monthly maximum temperature as well as for warm days and nights reflecting dry conditions in the study area. The warm extremes and nighttime temperature indices showed greater trends than cold extremes and daytime indices depicting an overall warming trends in the Delta. Historic decrease in the acreage of major crops and over 33% decrease in agriculture credit for Sindh are the indicators of adverse impacts of warmer and drier weather on Sindh agriculture. Trends reported for Karachi and Badin are expected to decrease rice cultivation, hatching of fisheries, and mangroves forest surrounding these cities. Increase in the prevailing temperature trends will lead to increasingly hotter and drier summers resulting to constraints on cotton, wheat, and rice yield in Rohri and Mohenjodaro areas due to increased crop water requirements that may be met with additional groundwater pumping; nonetheless, the depleted groundwater resources would have a direct impact on the region’s economy.     

Assessment of Air Temperature Trends in the Source Region of Yellow River and Its Sub-Basins,China

Changes in climatic variables at the sub-basins scale (having different features of land cover) are crucial for planning, development and designing of water resources infrastructure in the context of climate change. Accordingly, to explore the features of climate changes in sub-basins of the Source Region of Yellow River (SRYR), absolute changes and trends of temperature variables, maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), mean temperature (Tavg) and diurnal temperature range (DTR), were analyzed annually and seasonally by using daily observed air temperature dataset from 1965 to 2014. Results showed that annual Tmax, Tmin and Tavg for the SRYR were experiencing warming trends respectively at the rate of 0.28, 0.36 and 0.31°C (10 yr)^?1. In comparison with the 1st period (1965-1989), more absolute changes and trends towards increasing were observed during the 2nd period (1990-2014). Apart from Tangnaihai (a low altitude sub-basin), these increasing trends and changes seemed more significant in other basins with highest magnitude during winter. Among sub-basins the increasing trends were more dominant in Huangheyan compared to other sub-basins. The largest increase magnitude of Tmin, 1.24 and 1.18°C (10 yr)^?1, occurred in high altitude sub-basins Jimai and Huangheyan, respectively, while the smallest increase magnitude of 0.23°C (10 yr)^?1 occurred in a low altitude sub-basin Tangnaihai. The high elevation difference in Tangnaihai probably was the main reason for the less increase in the magnitude of Tmin. In the last decade, smaller magnitude of trend for all temperature variables signified the signal of cooling in the region. Overall, changes of temperature variables had significant spatial and seasonal variations. It implies that seasonal variations of runoff might be greater or different for each sub-basin.     

Analysis and Design of Monopile Foundations for Offshore Wind-Turbine Structures

Offshore wind turbines (OWTs) are generally supported by large-diameter monopiles, with the combination of axial forces, lateral forces, bending moments, and torsional moments generated by the OWT structure and various environmental factors resisted by earth pressures mobilized in the soil foundation. The lateral loading on the monopile foundation is essentially cyclic in nature and typically of low amplitude. This state-of-the-art review paper presents details on the geometric design, nominal size, and structural and environmental loading for existing and planned OWT structures supported by monopile foundations. Pertinent ocean-environment loading conditions, including methods of calculation using site-specific data, are described along with wave particle kinematics, focusing on correlations between the loading frequency and natural vibration frequency of the OWT structure. Existing methods for modeling soil under cyclic loading are reviewed, focusing in particular on strain accumulation models that consider pile–soil interaction under cyclic lateral loading. Inherent limitations/shortcomings of these models for the analysis and design of existing and planned OWT monopile foundations are discussed. A design example of an OWT support structure having a monopile foundation system is presented. Target areas for further research by the wind-energy sector, which would facilitate the development of improved analyses/design methods for offshore monopiles, are identified.     

Sediment yield assessment and identification of check dam sites for Rawal Dam catchment

Sediment yield is the amount of erosional debris from drainage basin deposited in reservoirs. The economic life of storage reservoir depends upon the estimation of the time it takes for the reservoir to be filled with the deposition of sediments. This research is based on assessing the sediment yield in Rawal Dam catchment by using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Digital Elevation Model (DEM), land use maps, soil maps, and weather data of the study watershed were used as input to SWAT model. Monthly sedimentation data of year 2010 and discharge data from 1998 to 2005 is being used for model calibration and validation, respectively. Whereas simulations are being generated from 1998 to 2011 for both sedimentation and discharge. Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (MUSLE) was used for the estimation of sediment yield. The Nash and Sutcliffe coefficient of the model was found to be 0.79 which depicts its effectiveness. After the estimation of the sediment yield and discharge by using SWAT model, double mass curve was used to evaluate the sedimentation rate. The rate of sediment transport can be reduced by the construction of check dams. Various sites have also been proposed for check dams construction to prevent the sediments transported into the Rawal Catchment.     

Geochemistry and petrology of Late Miocene-Pleistocene Dibdibba sandstone formation in south and central Iraq: implications for provenance and depositional setting

Major, trace, and some rare earth element compositions in clastic sediments of the Dibdibba Formation (Late Miocene-Pleistocene) in central and southern Iraq have been investigated to describe the sedimentary environment and provenance. These sediments are classified as subarkosic to arkosic with few sublithic arenite, lithic arenite, and gray wacke; they are mainly composed of quartz (Q) followed by feldspar (F) and rock fragments (L) with a petrologic composition of Q73-F21-L6. The Arabian Shield is a probable source of the studied sediments which are derived from multi-sources including igneous rocks (felsic to mafic) and metamorphic rocks and were transported by river currents towards the northeast. Eventually, the clastic sediments were deposited in a fluviatile environment covering a wide area in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, and Iraq during the Late Miocene-Pleistocene. They were developed on a passive continental margin under a semi-humid climate alternating with drought periods. The grain size analysis indicates that Basra in the south of Iraq is close to the source, but Karbala and Najaf in central Iraq are farthest from the source.     

Prediction of pore-water pressure response to rainfall using support vector regression

Nonlinear complex behavior of pore-water pressure responses to rainfall was modelled using support vector regression (SVR). Pore-water pressure can rise to disturbing levels that may result in slope failure during or after rainfall. Traditionally, monitoring slope pore-water pressure responses to rainfall is tedious and expensive, in that the slope must be instrumented with necessary monitors. Data on rainfall and corresponding responses of pore-water pressure were collected from such a monitoring program at a slope site in Malaysia and used to develop SVR models to predict pore-water pressure fluctuations. Three models, based on their different input configurations, were developed. SVR optimum meta-parameters were obtained using k-fold cross validation and a grid search. Model type 3 was adjudged the best among the models and was used to predict three other points on the slope. For each point, lag intervals of 30 min, 1 h and 2 h were used to make the predictions. The SVR model predictions were compared with predictions made by an artificial neural network model; overall, the SVR model showed slightly better results. Uncertainty quantification analysis was also performed for further model assessment. The uncertainty components were found to be low and tolerable, with d-factor of 0.14 and 74 % of observed data falling within the 95 % confidence bound. The study demonstrated that the SVR model is effective in providing an accurate and quick means of obtaining pore-water pressure response, which may be vital in systems where response information is urgently needed.