Invertebrate fossils (Insecta: Trichoptera,Diptera, Coleoptera) from the Pleistocene Scarborough Formation at Toronto,Ontario, and their paleoenvironmental significance

Larval caddisfly, chironomid, and beetle remains have been recovered from the Pleistocene Scarborough Formation in the Toronto region of southern Ontario. Three stratigraphic levels were sampled at the northeastern end of the Scarborough Bluffs; the youngest horizon yielded 16 chironomid taxa, 33 caddisfly taxa, and 28 beetle taxa, whereas the two older levels yielded somewhat less diverse assemblages. Only one taxon in each of the caddisfly and chironomid groups was identified from the presumed correlative beds at Woodbridge, Ontario, but numerous beetle fragments were recovered, several of which have been specifically identified and match species found previously in the upper part of the Scarborough Formation. The youngest sampled assemblage in the Scarborough Formation at the northeastern end of the Scarborough Bluffs is interpreted as indicating cool climatic conditions in a boreal forest environment, given the present-day distributions and feeding habits of these river, lake, and terrestrial taxa. The mean July temperature at this time was probably about 15°C, as compared to the present-day value of 20.5°C. The forest was poorer in deciduous species during deposition of the older part of the formation as preserved here. These results agree well with previous interpretations based on plant remains. We suggest that both aquatic and terrestrial insects are good indicators of macroclimate.     

Potential impacts of climate warming and increased summer heat stress on the electric grid: a case study for a large power transformer (LPT) in the Northeast United States

Large power transformers (LPTs) are critical yet vulnerable components of the power grid. More frequent and intense heat waves or high temperatures can degrade their operational lifetime and increase the risk of premature failure. Without adequate preparedness, a widespread situation could ultimately lead to prolonged grid disruption and incur excessive economic costs. Here, we investigate the potential impact of climate warming and corresponding shifts in summertime “hot days” on a selected LPT located in the Northeast United States. We apply an analogue method, which detects the occurrence of hot days based on the salient, associated large-scale atmospheric conditions, to assess the risk of future change in their occurrence. Compared with the more conventional approach that relies on climate model-simulated daily maximum temperature, the analogue method produces model medians of late twentieth century hot day frequency that are more consistent with observation and have stronger inter-model consensus. Under the climate warming scenarios, multi-model medians of both model daily maximum temperature and the analogue method indicate strong decadal increases in hot day frequency by the late twenty-first century, but the analogue method improves model consensus considerably. The decrease of transformer lifetime with temperature increase is further assessed. The improved inter-model consensus of the analogue method is viewed as a promising step toward providing actionable information for a more stable, reliable, and environmentally responsible national grid.     

Multi-Scale Gaussian Normalization for Solar Image Processing

Extreme ultra-violet images of the corona contain information over a wide range of spatial scales, and different structures such as active regions, quiet Sun, and filament channels contain information at very different brightness regimes. Processing of these images is important to reveal information, often hidden within the data, without introducing artefacts or bias. It is also important that any process be computationally efficient, particularly given the fine spatial and temporal resolution of Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (AIA/SDO), and consideration of future higher resolution observations. A very efficient process is described here, which is based on localised normalising of the data at many different spatial scales. The method reveals information at the finest scales whilst maintaining enough of the larger-scale information to provide context. It also intrinsically flattens noisy regions and can reveal structure in off-limb regions out to the edge of the field of view. We also applied the method successfully to a white-light coronagraph observation.     

Ocean acidification and its impacts: an expert survey

The oceans moderate the rate and severity of climate change by absorbing massive amounts of anthropogenic CO₂ but this results in large-scale changes in seawater chemistry, which are collectively referred to as anthropogenic ocean acidification. Despite its potentially widespread consequences, the problem of ocean acidification has been largely absent from most policy discussions of CO₂ emissions, both because the science is relatively new and because the research community has yet to deliver a clear message to decision makers regarding its impacts. Here we report the results of the first expert survey in the field of ocean acidification. Fifty-three experts, who had previously participated in an IPCC workshop, were asked to assess 22 declarative statements about ocean acidification and its consequences. We find a relatively strong consensus on most issues related to past, present and future chemical aspects of ocean acidification: non-anthropogenic ocean acidification events have occurred in the geological past, anthropogenic CO₂ emissions are the main (but not the only) mechanism generating the current ocean acidification event, and anthropogenic ocean acidification that has occurred due to historical fossil fuel emissions will be felt for centuries. Experts generally agreed that there will be impacts on biological and ecological processes and biogeochemical feedbacks but levels of agreement were lower, with more variability across responses. Levels of agreement were higher for statements regarding calcification, primary production and nitrogen fixation than for those about impacts on foodwebs. The levels of agreement for statements pertaining to socio-economic impacts, such as impacts on food security, and to more normative policy issues, were relatively low.     

Timescales of mixing and mobilisation in the Bishop Tuff magma body: perspectives from diffusion chronometry

We present two-feldspar thermometry and diffusion chronometry from sanidine, orthopyroxene and quartz from multiple samples of the Bishop Tuff, California, to constrain the temperature stratification within the pre-eruptive magma body and the timescales of magma mixing prior to its evacuation. Two-feldspar thermometry yields estimates that agree well with previous Fe–Ti oxide thermometry and gives a ~80 °C temperature difference between the earlier- and later-erupted regions of the magma chamber. Using the thermometry results, we model diffusion of Ti in quartz, and Ba and Sr in sanidine as well as Fe–Mg interdiffusion in orthopyroxene to yield timescales for the formation of overgrowth rims on these crystal phases. Diffusion profiles of Ti in quartz and Fe–Mg in orthopyroxene both yield timescales of <150 years for the formation of overgrowth rims. In contrast, both Ba and Sr diffusion in sanidine yield nominal timescales 1–2 orders of magnitude longer than these two methods. The main cause for this discrepancy is inferred to be an incorrect assumption for the initial profile shape for Ba and Sr diffusion modelling (i.e. growth zoning exists). Utilising the divergent diffusion behaviour of Ba and Sr, we place constraints on the initial width of the interface and can refine our initial conditions considerably, bringing Ba and Sr data into alignment, and yielding timescales closer to 500 years, the majority of which are then within uncertainty of timescales modelled from Ti diffusion in quartz. Care must be thus taken when using Ba in sanidine geospeedometry in evolved magmatic systems where no other phases or elements are available for comparative diffusion profiling. Our diffusion modelling reveals piecemeal rejuvenation of the lower parts of the Bishop Tuff magma chamber at least 500 years prior to eruption. Timescales from our mineral profiling imply either that diffusion coefficients currently used are uncertain by 1–2 orders of magnitude, or that the minerals concerned did not experience a common history, despite being extracted from the same single pumice clasts. Introduction of the magma initiating crystallisation of the contrasting rims on sanidine, quartz, orthopyroxene and zircon was prolonged, and may be a marker of other processes that initiated the Bishop Tuff eruption rather than the trigger itself.     

A cascade of magmatic events during the assembly and eruption of a super-sized magma body

We use comprehensive geochemical and petrological records from whole-rock samples, crystals, matrix glasses and melt inclusions to derive an integrated picture of the generation, accumulation and evacuation of 530 km³ of crystal-poor rhyolite in the 25.4 ka Oruanui supereruption (New Zealand). New data from plagioclase, orthopyroxene, amphibole, quartz, Fe–Ti oxides, matrix glasses, and plagioclase- and quartz-hosted melt inclusions, in samples spanning different phases of the eruption, are integrated with existing data to build a history of the magma system prior to and during eruption. A thermally and compositionally zoned, parental crystal-rich (mush) body was developed during two periods of intensive crystallisation, 70 and 10–15 kyr before the eruption. The mush top was quartz-bearing and as shallow as ~3.5 km deep, and the roots quartz-free and extending to >10 km depth. Less than 600 year prior to the eruption, extraction of large volumes of ~840 °C low-silica rhyolite melt with some crystal cargo (between 1 and 10%), began from this mush to form a melt-dominant (eruptible) body that eventually extended from 3.5 to 6 km depth. Crystals from all levels of the mush were entrained into the eruptible magma, as seen in mineral zonation and amphibole model pressures. Rapid translation of crystals from the mush to the eruptible magma is reflected in textural and compositional diversity in crystal cores and melt inclusion compositions, versus uniformity in the outermost rims. Prior to eruption the assembled eruptible magma body was not thermally or compositionally zoned and at temperatures of ~790 °C, reflecting rapid cooling from the ~840 °C low-silica rhyolite feedstock magma. A subordinate but significant volume (3–5 km³) of contrasting tholeiitic and calc-alkaline mafic material was co-erupted with the dominant rhyolite. These mafic clasts host crystals with compositions which demonstrate that there was some limited pre-eruptive physical interaction of mafic magmas with the mush and melt-dominant body. However, the mafic magmas do not appear to have triggered the eruption or controlled magmatic temperatures in the erupted rhyolite. Integration of textural and compositional data from all available crystal types, across all dominant and subordinate magmatic components, allow the history of the Oruanui magma body to be reconstructed over a wide range of temporal scales using multiple techniques. This history spans the tens of millennia required to grow the parental magma system (U–Th disequilibrium dating in zircon), through the centuries and decades required to assemble the eruptible magma body (textural and diffusion modelling in orthopyroxene), to the months, days, hours and minutes over which individual phases of the eruption occurred, identified through field observations tied to diffusion modelling in magnetite, olivine, quartz and feldspar. Tectonic processes, rather than any inherent characteristics of the magmatic system, were a principal factor acting to drive the rapid accumulation of magma and control its release episodically during the eruption. This work highlights the richness of information that can be gained by integrating multiple lines of petrologic evidence into a holistic timeline of field-verifiable processes.     

Exploring the policy and social factors fueling the expansion and shift of sugarcane production in the Brazilian Cerrado

Within the past decade, the sugarcane ethanol industry in Brazil has increased its production capacity to meet rising domestic demand for ethanol. However, to achieve this growth the industry has had to expand into new frontiers in the Brazilian Cerrado, specifically in the states of Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul, which is now the second largest producing area of ethanol in Brazil. We argue that the expansion into the Brazilian Cerrado is a result of the interactions between the increase in demand, governmental policies, infrastructure, and factors that have prevented traditional sugarcane producing regions from meeting the increasing demand for ethanol. This paper analyzes the policies that have shaped the sugarcane industry in Brazil and the expansion of the industry across the country. The policies and issues examined include those that led to the concentration and consolidation of the sugarcane industry in the state of São Paulo and the consequences of this consolidation; the influence of governmental policies on the decision-making process of producers and industry; the state-level policies designed to expand the industry into Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul states; infrastructure development; and the Sugarcane Agroecological Zoning policies. Through this study we conclude that the ethanol industry identified the Cerrado states as an opportunity for investment, given the good agricultural conditions for producing sugarcane, affordable land prices and favorable state-level fiscal incentive policies. In addition, there is a need for further regional development policies as the interaction between the sugarcane sector and regional government is likely to continue into the future.     

Underwater video reveals decreased activity of rocky intertidal snails during high tides and cooler days

Nearly all of our understanding of rocky inter‐tidal ecology comes from studies conducted at low tide. To study inter‐tidal organisms at high tide, we anchored waterproof digital GoPro^® video cameras in wave‐exposed tidepools and recorded the daytime movements of the black turban snail, Tegula funebralis, over the tidal cycle between May and August 2012 near Bodega Bay, California. Overall, snails moved more quickly and presumably foraged more during low tides and on days with warmer air and perhaps water temperatures. This is similar to other ectotherms that exhibit increased metabolic rates, movement and foraging in warmer conditions. Snails also moved less during flood and high tides, may have moved downward in tidepools at flood tides, and showed evidence of reduced activity on days with larger waves. This inactivity and refuge seeking may have been a strategy to avoid dislodgment by waves. Analysis of snail trajectories showed foraging bouts indicated by alternating zig‐zagging and straight movement. There was no effect of temperature, wave height, or tidal phase on distribution of snail turning angles, suggesting that they may have foraged consistently but moved faster during warm conditions and low tides, thereby grazing a larger area. This is one of few direct recordings of inter‐tidal organisms on wave‐exposed rocky shores during high tide. The methods used here are easily transferable to other studies, which are needed to increase our understanding of behaviors that structure rocky shore communities during high tide.     

Expert judgements on the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to climate change

We present results from detailed interviews with 12 leading climate scientists about the possible effects of global climate change on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The elicitation sought to examine the range of opinions within the climatic research community about the physical processes that determine the current strength of the AMOC, its future evolution in a changing climate and the consequences of potential AMOC changes. Experts assign different relative importance to physical processes which determine the present-day strength of the AMOC as well as to forcing factors which determine its future evolution under climate change. Many processes and factors deemed important are assessed as poorly known and insufficiently represented in state-of-the-art climate models. All experts anticipate a weakening of the AMOC under scenarios of increase of greenhouse gas concentrations. Two experts expect a permanent collapse of the AMOC as the most likely response under a 4×CO₂ scenario. Assuming a global mean temperature increase in the year 2100 of 4 K, eight experts assess the probability of triggering an AMOC collapse as significantly different from zero, three of them as larger than 40%. Elicited consequences of AMOC reduction include strong changes in temperature, precipitation distribution and sea level in the North Atlantic area. It is expected that an appropriately designed research program, with emphasis on long-term observations and coupled climate modeling, would contribute to substantially reduce uncertainty about the future evolution of the AMOC.     

Phosphorus distribution between potassic alkali feldspar and metaluminous haplogranitic liquid at 200 MPa (H<Subscript>2</Subscript>O): the effect of undercooling on crystal–liquid systematics

To evaluate the applicability of P₂O₅ concentration in potassic alkali feldspar as a monitor of P₂O₅ in melt for undercooled systems, crystal–melt partitioning for P was evaluated via feldspar growth experiments in P-bearing ((3 wt% P₂O₅), water-saturated haplogranitic liquids at 200 MPa, with liquidus undercoolings (ΔT) of 25, 50, 100, 200, and 300°C. Increasing undercooling in the range ΔT=25–200°C shows an evolution of crystal morphologies, from euhedral and well-filled individuals at ΔT=25–50°C to radial clusters with increasingly skeletal habit at greater undercooling. Experiments at ΔT=100–200°C also document the development of P- (up to (9 wt% P₂O₅) and Si-enriched, more alkaline boundary layers adjacent to crystals. Experiments at ΔT=300°C show an additional change in crystallization fabric in which spherulites of skeletal crystals form in open (vapor) space created by the dissolution of bulk silicate, and compositional boundary layers are not observed. We interpret the changes in reaction products at ΔT=300°C to indicate conditions below a glass transition; hence, partition coefficients were not determined for this undercooling. Values of K _d(P)^Kfs/melt from experiments at ΔT=25–200°C, calculated from pairs of crystal and immediately adjacent liquid compositions (including boundary layers at higher undercooling), are mostly in the range of 0.25–0.55 and show no effective change with increased undercooling. Essentially no change in K _d(P)^Kfs/melt with undercooling apparently stems from an interplay between boundary layer composition and a change in the substitution mechanism for P in feldspar from AlPSi₋₂, common in peraluminous to metaluminous liquids near equilibrium, to increasing proportions of ([ ],P)(M⁺,Si)₋₁ with increased undercooling. Bulk glass and liquid beyond boundary layers in experiments with significant percentages of crystallization are homogeneous, and show pronounced fractionation primarily due to the removal of an orthoclase component. Because crystallization was still in progress in experiments with ΔT≤200°C, compositional homogeneity in the bulk liquid requires extremely rapid diffusion of most haplogranite components (Na, K, and Al), apparently resulting from chemical potential gradients stemming from the removal of components from the liquid by crystal growth. Similar homogeneity and bulk fractionation in experiments with ΔT=300°C requires rapid diffusive equilibration for the alkalis even at temperatures below an apparent glass transition. Unlike the haplogranite components, P is only concentrated in liquid boundary layers (ΔT≤200°C) or low-density aqueous vapor (ΔT=300°C) adjacent to crystals. Hence, the P₂O₅ contents of melt inclusions likely are not representative of bulk melt concentrations in significantly undercooled systems (ΔT≤50–100°C).